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Multifamily
Overview
Demand Drivers &
Market Fundamentals
Mid-Year 2019
CBRE Research
Part 1/
Setting the
Stage
Canadian commercial real estate experienced an multifamily sector were 9.8% as of Q1 2019, second only to
unprecedented decade of demand and returns since the the industrial sector, which has also benefitted from a recent
Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Robust economic growth, period of tremendous rent recalibration.
employment gains in the technology and other high-skilled
While the multifamily sector’s ability to generate consistent
service sectors, strengthening trade, the rapid growth
cash flows and provide defensive positioning against
of ecommerce and shifting demographics have pushed
economic cycle downturns has always made it an enticing
fundamentals across the commercial real estate landscape
option for investors, the current landscape is stronger than
to record levels. Strong property fundamentals have in turn
it has been at any other time in history. Performance drivers
led to commercial real estate acquisition volumes reaching
including a growing population, rising home ownership
a 15-year high of $49.3 billion in 2018, while cap rates have
costs and lack of rental supply are becoming entrenched in
compressed to 10-year lows.
many markets across the country, which means the appeal
Even against a backdrop of impressive results, the of multifamily assets is likely to increase.
multifamily sector stands out from the pack as the top
performing commercial property type in North America.
Figure 2: REALPAC/IPD Canada Property Fund Index
Based on the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s
(CMHC) 2018 data release, the national average multifamily Total Returns as of March 2019 (12mo Trailing)
vacancy rate ended the year at 2.4%. This was below the 16.0%
14.1%
10-year average of 2.6%, and well below the national average 14.0%
vacancy rate for each of the office, industrial and retail 12.0%
sectors, both here and in the United States. 9.8%
10.0%
With apartment buildings at near full occupancy in markets 8.0% 7.4%
from coast to coast, rent growth has accelerated. Over the 6.0% 5.2%
last two years, average rents for purpose-built rental units 3.7%
4.0%
have grown by 4.4% annually at the national level, and by 2.0%
5.0% in Toronto and by 7.1% in Vancouver. This rapid rise
0.0%
of rental rates has resulted in strong investment returns Retail Office Multifamily Industrial All Property
for landlords. Total annualized returns for the Canadian
Source: MSCI, May 2019.
Office 12.2%
Retail 8.8%
US
Industrial 7.1%
Multifamily 4.0%
Office 11.3%
Retail 3.4%
Canada
Industrial 3.1%
Multifamily 2.4%
Notes:
i) Industrial figures are availability rates, Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric
ii) Retail rates are composite figures including Neighbourhood, Community, and Strip assets, Advisors and Canada Mortgage and Housing
iii) Canadian multifamily figures as of October 2018. Corporation, Q2 2019.
Population Growth
0.63%
0.40%
0.46% 0.46%
0.20%
0.00%
Canada’s population grew by 1.1% per year from 2009 -0.20% -0.04% -0.03% -0.38%
to 2018 and is expected to continue expanding at a rate -0.40%
of 0.9% over the next four years, outpacing all other G7 Canada United United France Italy Germany Japan
States Kingdom
nations by a considerable margin.
2009-18 2018-23
Much of this momentum is being fueled by immigration Source: International Monetary Fund, March 2019.
due to the fact that, unlike other global leaders, Canada
remains supportive of immigration as an economic Figure 5: New Immigrant Targets 2019-2021
imperative. The total number of newcomers has 1.3%
increased substantially over the last four years
14.5% Economic Programs
and immigration accounted for 80.5% of Canada’s
population growth in 2018. Family Programs
The federal government announced a plan in 2018 to 26.5% 57.7% Refugees and
welcome one million new immigrants into the country Protected Persons
between 2019 and 2021. While the new migrants will be Humanitarian and
admitted through a mixture of economic, family, refugee Other
and humanitarian programs, the bulk of those admitted
Source: Government of Canada, 2018.
will be approved on skill-based or economic grounds.
As population has grown, so too has demand for Figure 6: Canadian Population Growth by Market
housing, particularly for purpose-built rental units. Net International Migration Annual Average | ‘13 to ‘18
While immigration has been spread across the country, 100,000
the greatest impact has been felt in major urban centres 80,000
and Toronto, are also those which have seen the greatest 20,000
Vancouver
housing alternatives have grown substantially since the end 14.0
of 2014. In an attempt to combat this rapid growth, each of
13.0
the British Columbia and Ontario provincial governments
put forth new housing regulations in late 2016 and early 12.0
Toronto
new federal mortgage requirements, did cool the markets,
Waterloo
in Vancouver and Toronto sit just below $1.0 million and
7.0
$800,000 today.
Montreal
London
6.0 Severely
Winnipeg
Edmonton
Calgary
Ottawa
Recent reports have shown that when comparing Unaffordable
5.0
Halifax
affordability (the relationship between average home Seriously Unaffordable
4.0
prices and median incomes) across global cities, Canadian
Moderately Unaffordable
markets consistently rank as some of the least affordable 3.0
Affordable
in the world. According to Demographia’s annual survey 2.0
of global housing affordability, Vancouver and Toronto are
1.0
ranked as the second and tenth least affordable cities in the
world for housing. No major Canadian city was classified as -
0 11
affordable in this report, although some markets including
Major markets classified as metropolitan areas with
Winnipeg, Edmonton and Halifax were close to this
more than 1,000,000 population.
threshold with scores below 3.7.
Median Multiple indicator is median house price
divided by median pre-tax gross household income.
While rising home prices are not necessarily a problem by
Source: 15th Annual Demographia International
themselves, the chief issue is that income growth has not Housing Affordability Survey.
kept pace with the growth witnessed in housing prices.
$750,000
National
Aggregate
$625,300
$550,000 Ottawa
$424,400
Calgary
$350,000 $419,900
Montreal
$365,700
$150,000 Edmonton
$323,900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Regulations National Toronto Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Montreal Ottawa
Aggregate
Source: CBRE Research, The Canadian Real
Estate Association, June 2019.
170.0
150.0
130.0
110.0
90.0
H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Income per Capita Rental Rate (2-bdrm) Ownership Cost (Single Detached) Ownership Cost (Condo)
Source: CBRE Research, Canadian Real Estate Association, Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation, The Conference Board of Canada, Q2 2019.
Primary Market Inventory Secondary Market Inventory Persons per Unit of Primary Rental Inventory Persons per Unit of Total Rental Inventory
Source: CBRE Research, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, October 2018.
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Toronto Vancouver Montreal Calgary Edmonton Ottawa Winnipeg Halifax London Waterloo
Condo Purpose-Built Rental
Source: CBRE Research, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Q2 2019.
$2,500
$2,393
$2,000
$2,034
$809
$500
$0
Toronto Vancouver Waterloo Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Halifax Winnipeg Montreal London
Condominium Rental Purpose-Built Rental
Source: CBRE Research, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, October 2019.
70,000 70%
60,000 60%
50,000 50%
40,000 40%
30,000 30%
20,000 20%
10,000 10%
0 0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Rental Units Under Construction Rental Share of Apartments Under Construction
7.0%
6.0%
5.3%
5.0%
4.0% 3.9%
0.0%
Vancouver Toronto Ottawa Halifax Montreal London Winnipeg Waterloo Calgary Edmonton
10-Yr Low 10-Yr High Current Vacancy Rate
Source: CBRE Research, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, October 2018.
$600
$400
$200
$0
Vancouver Toronto Ottawa Edmonton Calgary Waterloo Winnipeg Halifax London Montreal
10-Yr Low 10-Yr High Current Average Rent per Unit
Source: CBRE Research, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, October 2018.
7.0% 7.1%
6.0%
5.0% 5.0%
4.8%
4.4% 4.3%
4.0% 3.9%
3.4% 3.4% 3.5%
3.0% 2.9%
2.6% 2.7% 2.7%
2.5%
2.0% 2.2% 2.0%
2.0% 1.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Vancouver Toronto London Ottawa Montreal Halifax Winnipeg Waterloo Calgary Edmonton
Preceding Decade ('07 to '16) Last Two Years ('16 to '18)
Source: CBRE Research, Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation, October 2018.
Figure 19: Multifamily Investment Volume Figure 20: 2018 Purchaser Profile Breakdown
Investment Volume ($B)
Institutional
$9.0 2.5%
$8.0
$8.3B
$7.0 REIT/REOC
10.9% Private
$6.0 Canadian
$6.3B
$6.0B
Foreign Investor
$5.7B
$5.0
$5.5B
Investor 31.0%
$4.0 12.9%
$4.2B
$4.0B
$3.7B
$3.0
$3.6B
$3.2B
$2.9B
$2.0
$2.4B
Private Equity
$1.0 16.5%
Pension
$0.0 Fund/Advisor
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
H1 2019
26.2%
Multifamily FY Pace
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
10-yr GoC Bond Yield All Property Average Cap Rate Multifamily Average Cap Rate
C O N TA C T
Marc Meehan Thomas Biglands
Director, Canada Research Senior Research Analyst
+1 647 943 4205 +1 416 847 3241
Marc.Meehan@cbre.com Thomas.Biglands@cbre.com
Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from
sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified
it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility
to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented
exclusively for use by CBRE Limited clients and professionals and all rights to the material are
reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE Limited.
CBRE Research