g ww w, b u s iness minor com. Ph n Thurcday,January 9, 2020 vol.15 No.

el

E*perts assess likely

costofMi By BER^*ADEry'.E D. NLcoLAs v @BNicoLasBM
& tovcf, MARrr: N. DtLAClr.r-zt @ioveematie

IGHER bil prices, declining

remittances and a multibillion-
P}OB
The estimate bv President

I Lpeso bill for bringing thousands Duterte of what miqht be

needed as a standb-vfund for
of Filipino workers to safety-that might the mass evacuatioit of0FWs
in the Middle East, accotding to
be the cost of the trnfolding geopolitical Speaker Cayetano

conflict in the Middle East. toryrepatriation has been imposed

Economists on WednesdaY said
they see a decline in remittances
from the regions, aside from tfre
higher oil prices posing a risk to
the country's inflation rate.
This, even after Bangko Sentral
ng Pilipinas Governor Benjamin
E. Diokno said he does not exPect
remittances to be hit hard desPite
recent international developments
thatbeganwith aJanuarY 3 United
States air strike on Baghdad air-
port, killing a top Iranian general
On WednesdaY, Labor SecretarY
Silvestre H. Bello I1I said manda-
for overseas Filipinos in Iran, Iraq
and Lebanon after the DePartment
of ForeignAffairs (DFA) raised the
alert level to 4, following Iran's re-
taliation early on WednesdaY, un-
leashing a barrage of missiles at
CoNTINUBD oN A8
fla';' ' aE p6
 s115ineSS]Vlifrcf , rhursday, fanu arye,2o2o

Experts assess likely cost of Mideast conflict

BudgetAssistint Secretary Ro, d,enlEmedyomalakiangkaitanganif of Filipinos in
Iraq would mea
coNrrNUED FRoMAI r
kulang'yungnasaGAA fGeneralAp- return of OFWs lsome unprepare
trvo lraqi bases housing US forces. lando U. Toledo said the govern- withnosavingsl Hence'NFIA[Ne
proptlttlois Actl, I think there is a
,/ House Speaker Alan petei. Cay ment can also taP at leasi P1.89 IncomefromAbroad] in GD
2020 r,""i fo, Co,,g,",, to have a sessior Factor
etano on Wednesday said president billion
underthe newlysigned
'
budget. again to disc-uss the needed funds willgo downbecause wehaveless<
Duterte iold him the governmerrl national
-
needs p20 billion as a standby fund
"O; .";.;'", yes, we have 166 fJr the repatriation of ovetseas income of Filipinos from abroa<
toenableauthoritiestoquicklymonel,standbyfund,eadyth"Filipinoworkers,"headded.Theworseistheunpreparedrr
marshal logistics andforces forthe government is ready if there is z declines :::T::"#tt';*"H'3HL*::
need, a call for the repatriation .i Remittance
mass repatriation. There are *or"
than2millionFilipinoworkersinouroverseasFilipinoworkers,',To-MEANWHILE,asPartofthepos-theBUsINEsSMIRROR.
siblefalloutfromthemassrepatria-
the Middle East, but those in 16" ledo said in the Weekly Economic
Press Briefing in Malacaffang. tionmadenecessarybythe conflici Anythinq'S poSSible-Ngd
most urgent hot zones-Iran, Iraq
and Lebanon-number a few thou- Broken
down, Toledo siid a economic to""ult"t'i John Paolo FORMER Socioeconomic Plannir
Rivera said a decline in remittances Secretary Romulo Neri added tl
sands.ln aworst-case scenario, the P1.29-billion allocation is lodgeJ
canbe feltifthegovernmentimple- possible oilprice increase coulda
overseas Filipino workers (oFWs) llder the budget of DFA, Pio0
in other MideastcountrieswhereUS
6illion under ihe budget oi Over- ments a deployment ban andpulls fectthe country's inflationrate';
seas Workers Welfare Administra- outthe OFWs for security reasons' well as the import
costs
forces are hosted, like Saudi Arabid, if the Dub
,io",.""a,lsoo.*lltlon as a "free 'A decline in remittances have Asked he sees
maybe at risk ifthe conflict spreads.
tt";ff;flHHl;epronounce
1-,s^y:::::-::*,?lT:rl,:" itt"",'"T"i;ff:1ilrT"11i"*i.1"1 :;:i:"Tl'n::ffiT:i":ii:3'
presjdent, ra said in a text mLssage to the $70 per barrel for 2020. Neri sai
il:T .:Tl::1.:"J,::',Tff;Jj" -.,,t of th" we already
'Anything's possible if confli
have the bujget for tire repatria- BusTTESSMIRRoR'
of I{eprtisentatives, seeking a6"
From Januaryto October 2019' escalates "
convening ofa special session to tion'" Toledo said . ^^^^
However, since the 2020 nation- remittances grew by 4' 3 percent to Although the US is the Phili
set aside funds fo, .r, '
evacuation. "-"rg"r.j al budget was just signed on Mon- $2T.6billion,higherthanlastyear's pines's largest export destinatir
government level of $26 5 billion as of October' Neri does not se(
told the president that there dan Tiledo said the
,,ll
the remaiiing balance Private-sector economist calix- significant impact yet on the cou
isl a p1-billion standby fund under can also use prospects'
from the 2o19 national budgel forto V.thikiamco also sees reduced try's export
DFA ccntingency fund. LBut he saii
the repatriation. Iemittances as a possible effect of "Maybe not much for the m
byJ his conservative estimate, ,6"
'Y"", lf the'" is still a balance the esealatins tetrsion ment' War may even increase d
government needs P20 billion as
the 20191l]9g"".:h:i1t "War in the Middle East will mand for electronic component
standby fund,,, Cayetano saidin an forthatin thls opini'
sh arect this oPrnl(
rnrervrew. rontifiuins
contiriuing affect the Philippine
aoorooriation s. we can affect
appropriation'i, Pbilippine economy H lvera shar_ed
economy hesaid. Rivera
stlll tap the 2019 budget...," he told through various mechanisms: saying it would still be "busine
Inhis speech after signing the
2020 national budget on Januar- the BUSINESSMIRROR. higher oil and, subsequently, as usual."
6, Duterte upp"ulud to l"*-.k: should this not be enough, To- tra-nsport fares, reduced remit- "In my opinion, not much 1
ers to set aside funds fo, ,rr"r" l"do said there
is also a contin- tances and repatriation of OFWs, cause ofour rate ofreaction on su
from the Office of the weaker .,,"""ty, lower exports events-although precautiona
repatriation in case the.orrfli.i 8^u..f,fotd
between the United states F.".id"ttt. through uncertainties in the global measures are atplace, weplayit
^,rj
Iran escalates into a full scalewar However, this wouldstillbe sub- tradiig and shipping- "rrrrliro.t- ear.l thinkonce tension escalat
ject to the approval of the President. merrt, irrd possibly tighter mon- significant changes can be felt b
This, after a US air strike killed r '
.1 "W"tt.u" pf3-bilLionallocation etaq/ polict in view of inflation as of now, I think it's business,
rasr rrloay rn "
:^p^i:1T"rl.::""*r for that contingent fund, but there tirtJ ot ujl"r oil and transport usual. But it's goodthatwe arep
""*r:1i";Ji:"","andtheHouse,.""lro,o-""lrrnarkedorratherprices,'he"said. ,P*ilc,f3t,Lh':l::!-i::j:.lT1
' tgl"qt:gt"T" -....
Despite this, Chikiamco saidby establishingbusiness with otl
of Representatives have indicatei not earmatked'but
l_ a stili cannot say whether these trade partners, hesaid.
nd projects or activities,' he said. he
:;l:5";:.:H::; :?n'irT:- whii" tte Department of Fi- wouldstgnificantlydentthecovr.- 4€,-42///'t'7= 'L'4^/,5
is also looking into other pos- try's first-quarter growth as
sumption on Janua ry 20-.to craf+ nance -GDP
sible fu nd sources. h e said they have the situation is sti11 deveJoping'
contingen.ies. including the pas-
sage of a supplemental budget 1o Yet
to figure how.much is needed For De La Salle University eco-
.. I for
qur(l(ly luno a massrve evacuarron the mass
repatriation. nomics Prof Maria Ella Oplas, the
Totedo expla'ined there is stilla possible spike in oil priie could
of OFWs in the Middle East.
onWednesday, the Department
needforCongtess to.hav; a;nec-ial hurt economic growth' but this
ofBudget and Management (DBM;
session to would still depend on how will the
lt:** l"lt,l:i"the
mass rePatriation' especiallyifthe tension escalate'
assured the public that the govern-
funds would not be enough. "Expect oil prices to go up as
ment has funds to move Filipinos current
"lthinktheconce"nofthePresi [theyarel doingnow Repatriaiion
ouL ol danger zones.