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First Half Heaven

Football Trading Strategy


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Contents

Welcome ............................................................................................. 3
What is football trading? .................................................................... 7
How do betting exchanges work? ....................................................... 9
List of betting exchanges ................................................................ 11
Bank management ............................................................................ 13
Trading psychology ........................................................................... 14
Trading football for a living ............................................................... 17
Introduction to First Half Heaven ...................................................... 18
How FHH works .............................................................................. 20
Trade smart .................................................................................... 22
FHH Results .................................................................................... 23
Start on the road to a winning football trading strategy ................... 25

Copyright © 2019 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved


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Welcome

Hello and welcome to Goal Profits!

My name is Steve Brown and I have been running


Goal Profits since 2011.

Having been born and raised in Bournemouth, I’m


an AFC Bournemouth fan. Most of my season ticket years comprised
of watching games against Chesterfield rather than Chelsea though!

The Premier League adventure has been amazing, but I do - perhaps


strangely - miss Tuesday night away games at Rochdale.

Anyway… like most people, I used to go to work every Monday


morning. I worked for BP for 15 years of my life and, while it wasn’t
all bad, I wouldn’t want to go back to working in an office for a living.

Also like most people… when I first started trading, I blew my bank.

If you’ve already done the same, congratulations – you’re normal!

Of course, I didn’t know that at the time and felt like some sort of
failure, but eventually I realised that losing trades are simply
opportunities to learn.

Once I started learning from my mistakes, I was on a path to success.

Click here to read more about me.

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This is my trading partner, Kevin Laverick.

Kevin played and managed football at a decent


level, then became a Chartered Surveyor.

Even with a degree in Pure Maths and Statistics,


he soon found out that Betfair trading isn’t as easy as he expected it
to be… and lost a lot of money very quickly.

After taking a year out, Kevin joined Betfair again. This time though,
his trades were based on statistics, probabilities and value rather
than football knowledge.

It worked!

Over the following two years, Kevin recovered all his losses and has
become one of the best football traders on the planet.

Click here to read more about Kevin.

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The point is… we don’t hide behind false names and shady profiles.
We are very open about who we are and what we do, which sets us
apart from many other characters out there on the internet.

For example, we organise trading workshops and social events


around the UK at which we discuss trading, answer questions and
even trade live together.

Every member who attends one of our workshops is a better trader


by the time that he or she leaves.

Oh… and these events are completely free. How many others do you
see offering that level of help and support without a hefty fee?

We’re passionate about serving members the best we possibly can


because success breeds success and we can all enjoy it together.

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Kevin and I have built Goal Profits from scratch and developed it into
the best football trading community available anywhere online.

We’ve been voted the best so many times, that we’re starting to lose
count. Click here to see all the awards we’ve won.

We’re delighted that a growing number of Goal Profits members are


realising their dream of securing a regular income from football
trading and we sincerely hope that you’re able to join them.

In this eBook, I am going to share a lot of information with you.

I will briefly explain football trading and how betting exchanges


work, then some other subjects such as bank management.

If you’re interested in trading football for a living, I’ll cover that too.

This isn’t an eBook which goes out of date either! I will direct you to
articles at Goal Profits which are regularly updated with the latest
information. You will always be ahead of everyone else.

Finally, it will be time for you to get started with First Half Heaven.

Good luck on your trading journey!

Copyright © 2019 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved


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What is football trading?

Football trading is similar to betting, except that you don’t have to


place your bet before kick-off and you’re not locked in until the final
whistle.

With trading, you can adjust your position - while the game is being
played - to lock in a profit or manage a loss.

Imagine being able to lock in a winner and avoid the agony of a late
equaliser spoiling your bet!

The best way I can think of to explain trading is to imagine that a


football match is a 90 minute stock market.

Let’s say that Dave is a financial trader looking to buy shares in Coca-
Cola. He checks the financial history of the company, strength of the
competition, current market conditions and so on.

Based on all the data he can find, Dave makes an informed


judgement about future profit and growth potential. He looks at the
share price and, if it shows some value, he decides to buy.

If Coca-Cola release some good news – perhaps a new flavour which


starts selling very well – the price rises and Dave can sell his shares.

The difference between the price Dave bought his shares at and the
price he sold them for is his profit.

Switch out Coca-Cola for Manchester City and the same applies.

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As a football trader, Dave checks


previous performance, strength of the
opposition, recent form and any other
useful statistics that he can find.

In exactly the same way, he makes an


informed judgement about Manchester City’s likely performance in
their next match and looks for value in the various markets.

It may be that Dave expects Manchester City to score the first goal of
the game during the first half.

He then has a number of markets he can choose to trade in; match


odds, next goal, half-time score and many more.

Each of these markets lasts for a maximum of 90 minutes and Dave


will know the outcome of his investment in that time.

It’s as if a stock market has been shrunk into a small amount of time.

So that’s a very brief introduction to football trading, but there is a


lot more information at Goal Profits for you to read.

Click here to read more about football trading.

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How do betting exchanges work?

You’ve probably heard of Betfair as it’s the biggest and most popular
betting exchange, but you may not know exactly how it works.

A betting exchange is where you can place bets against other traders,
rather than against a bookmaker, as in traditional forms of betting.

Very simply, you can bet on (back) or against (lay) something.

For instance, if you think Manchester United are going to win a


football match, you would place a back bet.

But if you think they are not going to win - that they will either lose
the game or draw it - you can place a lay bet against them.

By placing a lay bet, you’re taking on the role of the bookmaker by


offering odds that can then be taken by another trader.

If you are right and the team you have bet against loses or draws,
then your lay bet wins. If the team you chose to lay wins the match,
your bet loses and you have to pay out.

The exchange is simply acting as the middleman, allowing you to set


a price for your bet and finding someone else who wants to take it.

They make their money by charging traders a rate of commission,


usually on winning bets only.

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When trading, you will use both backing and laying.

If you back a selection and the price comes in, you will be able to do
the opposite (lay) to guarantee a profit no matter what else happens.

Similarly, if you lay a selection and the price drifts, you will be able to
do the opposite (back) to guarantee your profit.

For example, if you back Arsenal to win and they go 1-0 up, their
price to win will come in (go lower) because now that they are in the
lead, they’re more likely to win the game.

You will be able to lay at a lower price and the difference will be your
profit (just as in the example with Dave and Coca-Cola).

If this doesn’t make sense to you right away, don’t worry! Once you
start trading it will soon become second nature.

A key benefit of exchanges is that they typically offer better odds. In


fact, it is believed that they can offer up to 20% more value than
traditional bookmakers.

They also do not restrict or close winning accounts, which is a real


problem with online bookies these days.

Click here to read more about betting exchanges.

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List of betting exchanges

Betfair is the biggest betting exchange in the world and is hugely


popular among traders. In early 2016, Betfair underwent a merger
with bookmaker Paddy Power to form a new company.

Click here for Betfair's latest offer.

Another of the main UK betting exchanges is Matchbook, which aims


to offer traders "the ultimate online gaming experience".

Click here for Matchbook's latest offer.

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The newest exchange is Smarkets, which was set up in 2008 and has
already traded over £1 billion in bets. Smarkets describes itself as the
more "advanced trading platform" and is preferred by many traders
due to the fact it has a low commission rate.

Click here for Smarkets' latest offer.

Betdaq, which was founded in the same year as Betfair, was sold to
Ladbrokes in 2013. It claims to handle more than £75 million worth
of bets in a typical week.

Click here for Betdaq's latest offer.

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Bank management

A betting bank is an amount of capital that has been set aside


exclusively for the purposes of betting and/or trading.

It should never be more than you can afford to lose.

A disciplined trader who employs good bank management will be


safe enough, but many who are new to trading blow a bank or two
before the 'light bulb' moment when it all starts to come together.

This is perfectly normal. Trading is damn tough and inexperienced


traders are often easily tempted into chasing losses, which does
nothing but make a bad situation worse.

Think about it... if you hit a large loss, how many profitable trades do
you then need just to get back to where you started?!

Small losses are acceptable and they are unavoidable.

There are various websites which will try to convince you that they
have some sort of magical betting system which never loses, but
that's mathematically impossible. Live in the real world.

Your aim is to increase your bank over time as safely as possible. Set
reasonable, long-term targets and break them down into smaller,
manageable amounts.

As your bank compounds, things get very exciting!

Click here to read more about bank management.

Copyright © 2019 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved


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Trading psychology

When I first started trading on Betfair, I used to get very excited at


the thought of using new systems.

I couldn’t wait to get started… and made expensive mistakes.

Imagine two guys go online and buy the same trading system:

1. Andy picks out three selections which kick-off within the next
hour. He hasn’t fully read the eBook but if he gets stuck, he’ll
have a look.

2. Bill spends the first day reading the eBook a couple of times
and by the time he’s done, there are only a couple of fixtures
left to be played. He decides they’re not quite good enough to
trade, so he leaves them alone.

I’m sure that you will agree with me that Bill’s approach is far better
than Andy’s. However, there are a huge number of people out there
just like Andy and not nearly enough Bills. Which one are you?

1. Charlie knows the new trading strategy back to front, but he


makes a loss on the first day and decides that the system is not
for him. However, there was a different eBook he almost
bought, so he goes to take another look at the website.

2. Dave also makes a loss on the first day. He goes back to look at
his selection process and all seems fine, so he puts it down to
one of those things. He knows there has to be losses along the
way, so he’s not worried long-term.

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Again, you will agree more with Dave’s attitude and yet I see so
many Charlies. They simply give up at the first sign of all not being
perfect and, let’s face it, nothing is.

In order to be even remotely successful with any sort of trading, you


have to be determined enough to make it work.

Success isn’t easy, it looks a little like this…

Your perfect plan will go wrong early on and how you react will
determine your future success.

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Do you find a way to make it work or do you accept failure and quit?

A number of Goal Profits members have gone from complete


beginners, all the way to competent and profitable traders.

None of them had it easy though, they all had to be determined


enough to find success when things didn’t go their way.

Quitting is easier, of course, which is why so many accept failure and


bail out. Such a shame when just a bit of determination and drive
would produce very different results.

Remember, if others can be successful at trading, you can too. The


only thing stopping you is your own mindset and attitude.

Decide that you’re going to be successful and do it!

Click here to read more about trading psychology.

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Trading football for a living

If you dream about trading for a living, you’re certainly not alone.

Is it possible? Absolutely it is and there are Goal Profits members


doing it right now.

Will you become a professional trader? That’s impossible to answer.

Think about how difficult it is to make consistent profits on Betfair


when it’s just a hobby, but now imagine that trading is your main
source of income and your mortgage payment is due next week…

Could you handle that pressure?

How about if you worked part-time doing a job you enjoy, then
trading income is on top of that? For many people, that’s a much
more reasonable target.

There’s a lot more to professional trading than you probably realise.

For a start, there’s no salary paid into the bank at the end of each
month, no sick pay, no boss making sure that you’re productive with
your time. In fact, there’s no guarantee of anything at all.

But… holy crap it’s a great life!

Click here to read more about trading for a living.

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Introduction to First Half Heaven

Ok… are you ready to start trading?

Remember not to dive in head first, but to take your time and paper
trade some selections at first until your confidence builds.

First Half Heaven (FHH) is a great little system derived straight from
the Team Statistics software which all Goal Profits members enjoy
full access to.

It’s a great way to get started with trading; easy to use and low risk.

Of course, low risk means that you cannot hit big winners, but that’s
fine because you need plenty of low risk trades in your portfolio in
order to make a long-term profit.

Success is slow and steady, never quick and easy!

Most of the full-time traders at Goal Profits use First Half Heaven, so
don’t be at all put off by how simple it is.

FHH has been working well for a number of seasons and it’s well
tested. You can back at almost any betting exchange or bookie of
your choice and there is no trading out needed after a goal.

You will often need to ‘trade in’ though, so this isn’t ‘set and forget’.

The system will work in any league worldwide as long as you are
guided by the stats; and you’ll have all of the hard work done for you
each and every day for free!

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We are giving you access to an exclusive Team Statistics page which


shows you qualifiers for the days ahead.

Here’s an example:

You can see the kick-off time, country, league and home/away teams
with league positions in brackets.

When you click on any team name you will see all results for the
current season, both home and away. This is very useful for
researching recent form.

You then have the number of games played in the current season
and how many of those games were 0-0 at half-time.

H1 tells you the percentage of home games that the home team
scored in the first half, A1 tells you the percentage of away games
that the away team scored in the first half and Pr1 is a calculation of
first half goal probability.

You can then see the current Betfair price and a rating of up to five
stars for each fixture. In the example above, Sandnes Ulf v Hodd did
not have a Betfair price as it did not go in-play.

Click here to access the Team Stats page and bookmark it!

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How FHH works

FHH is a very simple strategy which only requires one first half goal.

The trick is to pick out the right games and, as you have already seen,
Team Stats does that for you.

On this particular day, there were only two in-play qualifiers so I


didn’t have a much of a choice to make!

It was also important that the kick-off times were an hour apart so
that I could take my winnings from the first one – hopefully – and
place them on the second.

I always go for a double and you’ll see why shortly.

I started by backing ‘over 0.5 first half goals’ at Norrkoping at 1.44.

The price was only 1.33 to back before kick-off but I was soon
matched in-play.

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A goal was scored mid-way through the first half, turning my £10
stake into £14.18.

I then used that £14.18 to back ‘over 0.5 first half goals’ at IA
Akranes, again at 1.44.

I was matched around five minutes into the first half and needed just
one goal to bring in my double.

It was scored fairly early on. In fact, the home team were 3-2 ahead
by half-time!

That second winner gave me an additional £5.93 profit to add to my


earlier £14.18, so £20.11 overall.

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And there’s the power of the double; my original £10 was now a little
over £20 from two very simple trades.

Does it get any easier than that?!

There’s no ‘trading out’ to worry about, just ‘trading in’ which makes
First Half Heaven perfect for anyone just starting out and a nice
portfolio add for experienced traders.

Tip: On Betfair, you can set up your ‘Over 0.5 Goals’ back at 1.44
before kick-off and click “keep”. Unless there’s a very early goal, you
will be matched and this will make your trade ‘set and forget’.

If you want to make the whole double ‘set and forget’ wait until the
following day for your second selection.

Trade smart

I don’t trade every fixture which appears on the shortlist, even when
there are only a couple to choose from.

FHH is part of my trading portfolio and I am happy to find 2-3 strong


doubles each week. After all, if two of three come off then I’m in
profit. If there are not two matches with strong stats, I give it a miss.

If you try to force something which isn’t there, you’ll hit more losses
than you should. What’s the point in that? Football trading isn’t
entertainment for a Saturday afternoon, so trade smart.

Click here for further match selection advice.

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FHH Results

You can see that on a busy weekend there are plenty of possible
trades and lots of winners.

There are also losers, of course, which are a part of betting and
trading, always have been and always will be.

However, as long as you make a long-term profit, you are not going
to be worried in the slightest by a losing double.

You might even hit a losing run - they happen too!

This is exactly why everyone who is serious about trading builds a


portfolio of systems. If one or two strategies go on a bad run, the
rest smooth the ride.

As long as each system in the portfolio makes a profit over many


months, individual losing trades are completely meaningless.

Copyright © 2019 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved


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Look at this way. If you are risking 1pt in order to win 1pt and you
know that you will win 2 out of 3 trades, then over many months this
will add up to 200 winners from 300 trades.

You will make 200pts of profit from the winners, but you will lose
100pts from the 100 losing trades.

Overall?

100pts of profit in the bank.

Nice!

In order to get that profit though, you need 300 trades and you know
already that there will be 100 losers.

Do you care one bit if your next trade loses? Of course not!

It was just another trade and happened to be one of the losers you
already know about.

That’s a trader’s mindset.

If you didn’t click through to read more about trading psychology,


now might be a good time – click here.

Copyright © 2019 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved


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Start on the road to a winning football trading strategy

I hope you enjoyed reading about trading and First Half Heaven. Now
it’s time to take the first steps on your trading journey.

Whether you’re looking for a useful second income or you’re aiming


higher and striving towards a full-time career, Goal Profits can help
you get there.

Our members get everything they need to trade profitably and


professionally:

• Exclusive Team Stats and a Live Stats Module that make trading
very quick and easy.
• 16 profitable trading strategies with daily selections, just like
First Half Heaven.
• Additional tools that highlight trading opportunities quickly and
effectively.
• Training resources to help beginners learn trading from the
ground up, improving understanding and results over 16 weeks.
• An exclusive area for advanced traders, where you get to
master the psychology of trading.
• In-play support from professional football traders in our
exclusive chat room/forum and by email.
• Unparalleled (yes... really!) customer support by live chat and
email.

This is a fantastic opportunity for you to finally achieve what you


want from trading.

Copyright © 2019 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved


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And you can try it out for a week for a quid!

Get access to all the membership resources and the most successful
Betfair community around…

SIGN UP for £1 HERE

We look forward to trading alongside you in the chat room!

Steve Brown and Kevin Laverick

Copyright © 2019 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved


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LEGAL NOTICE
Disclaimer & Terms of Use

We've put this free e-book together for educational purposes only; it's not a guarantee that
you will make a profit from football. Traders who have the correct mindset can make a very
good living from football, but trading decisions must be made with a view to long-term
profits and steady bank growth rather than a hope to "get rich quick".

In this book, we are sharing a trading strategy which can be highly successful, but if you
decide to trade using the ideas contained in this manual you are taking full responsibility for
your own actions. We cannot guarantee your success or income level.

The authors shall in no event be held liable to any party for any direct, indirect, punitive,
incidental or other consequential damages arising directly or indirectly from any use of this
material which is provided “as is” without warranties.

It is your responsibility to comply with gaming laws wherever you are. In regions where
gambling is illegal, this e-book must be used for informational purposes only. Any links in
this e-book which lead to a third-party website must only be used when the local laws allow.

You are not permitted to distribute this e-book and it may not be altered in any way. It may
not be shared or sold.

If you think you may have a problem with gambling, there is plenty of help available to you.

All these websites offer advice and assistance:

http://www.gamcare.org.uk/

http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/

http://www.gamblingtherapy.org/

http://www.gamblersanonymous.org.uk/

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