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Business Statistics
THIRD LEVEL
Series 2 2002
(Code 3009)
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Business Statistics Third Level
Series 2 2002
Model Answers have been developed by LCCIEB to offer additional information and guidance to
Centres, teachers and candidates as they prepare for LCCIEB examinations. The contents of this
booklet are divided into 3 elements:
(2) Model Answers – summary of the main points that the Chief Examiner expected to
see in the answers to each question in the examination paper,
plus a fully worked example or sample answer (where applicable)
Teachers and candidates should find this booklet an invaluable teaching tool and an aid to success.
The London Chamber of Commerce and Industry Examinations Board provides Model Answers to help
candidates gain a general understanding of the standard required. The Board accepts that candidates
may offer other answers that could be equally valid.
All rights reserved; no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or
transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise
without prior written permission of the Publisher. The book may not be lent, resold, hired out or
otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover, other than that in which it is
published, without the prior consent of the Publisher.
Typeset, printed and bound by the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry Examinations Board.
1
2
Business Statistics Third Level
Series 2 2002
QUESTION 1
In the year 2000 a random sample of 96 small companies revealed the following profits and losses
distribution:
(a) Calculate the arithmetic mean and the standard deviation of these company profits and losses.
(8 marks)
In the previous year a random sample of 150 small companies showed a mean profit of £28,400 with a
standard deviation of £28,352.
(b) Test to see if there has been a significant increase in the average profit made by small
companies.
(7 marks)
(c) Calculate a 99% confidence interval for the arithmetic mean in the year 2000.
(5 marks)
(Total 20 marks)
3
Model Answer to Question 1
(a)
2
f mid pt fx fx
–50 up to 0 10 –25 –250 6,250
Over 0 and up to 10 12 5 60 300
Over 10 and up to 20 21 15 315 4,725
Over 20 and up to 40 26 30 780 23,400
Over 40 and up to 80 19 60 1,140 68,400
Over 80 and up to 150 8 115 920 105,800
96 2,965 208,875
.L f .L fx .L fx2
x LL xf x 2,965
96
= £30.89 (000) (£30,885)
2
fx2 2 fx 208,875 v 2,965
s= –I I s= –
f I f I 96 96
)
(b) Null hypothesis: There has not been an increase in the average level
of profits
2.49
z sx12– xs2 2 = 30.89 – 28.4
34.962 28.3522 18.09
= 0.59
1 2
n1 n2 96 150
σ 34.955
(c) ci = x 2.58 30.89 2.58
n 96
4
QUESTION 2
The price of the standard family saloon car and the company market share was recorded for a random
sample of 12 car manufacturers.
Selling 137 138 125 142 168 145 135 145 160 146 136 160
price £00
Market 14 15 10 8 9 7 11 5 3 5 7 2
share %
(c) Test to find if the correlation coefficient differs significantly from zero.
(6 marks)
(Total 20 marks)
5
Model Answer to Question 2
16
14
12
Market Share %
10
Series 1
8
0
12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000
Price £
Comment : Some weak negative relationship.
r= n L xy – L x L y
1( n L x – L x 11 1( n L y – L y 11
(b) 2 2 2 2
J J
12 x 13,593 – 1,737 x 96
r=
12 x 253,113 – 1,737 2 12 x 948 – 96 2
163,116 – 166,752
r=
3,037,356 – 3,017,169 11,376 – 9,216
–3,636
r= – 0.5506
20,187 2,160
(c) Null hypothesis: The correlation coefficient does not differ from zero.
Alternative hypothesis: The correlation coefficient does differ from zero.
Degree of freedom = n – 2 = 12 – 2 = 10
Critical t0.025 = 2.23
t = r n –22 t = – 0.55 12 –2 2
1– r 1– (0.55 )
t= –1.61
1– 0.3025
= –1.61
0.835
= –2.086
7
QUESTION 3
A company is planning the launch of a new product. It estimates the probability of good market
conditions to be 80%. If market conditions are good the probability of a successful launch is 75%, if
market conditions are poor the probability of a successful launch is 50%.
(b) If the product launch is unsuccessful what is the probability that the market conditions were poor?
(6 marks)
The estimated returns from the new product launch are:
Market conditions are good and the product launch is successful £55 million
Market conditions are good and the product launch is unsuccessful – £13 million
Market conditions are poor and the product launch is successful £37 million
Market conditions are poor and the product launch is unsuccessful – £19 million
(c) What is the expected profit from the new product launch?
(4 marks)
The company sells an established product that has variable levels of weekly sales with arithmetic
mean of £5,000 and standard deviation of £600. You may assume that the sales are normally
distributed.
(d) (i) Find the probability that in one week there are sales of over £6,500
(ii) The sales have to exceed £3,800 in each week for the product to break even, what is the
probability of this happening?
(5 marks)
(Total 20 marks)
8
Model Answer to Question 3
Good market conditions and successful launch 0.8 x 0.75 x £55m = £33m
Good market conditions and unsuccessful launch 0.8 x 0.25 x –£13m = -£2.6m
Poor market conditions and successful launch 0.2 x 0.5 x £37m = £3.7m
Poor market conditions and unsuccessful launch 0.2 x 0.5 – £19m = –£1.9m
£32.2m
Proportion = 0.977
9
QUESTION 4
A company in its quality control procedures sets the warning limit at the 0.025 probability point and the
action limit at the 0.001 probability point. This means for example that the upper action line is set so
that the probability of the mean exceeding the line is 0.001.
The internal diameter of a bored hole is set at 35 mm with a known standard deviation of 0.1 mm.
Random samples of 9 items at a time are taken from the production line to check the accuracy of the
manufacturing process.
(b) (i) Construct a quality control chart to monitor the manufacturing process.
(8 marks)
(ii) The results for 8 samples are given below. Plot these on your quality control chart and
comment on the graph.
(4 marks)
Sample number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sample mean (mm) 35.05 34.94 34.89 35.16 35.15 34.95 34.99 35.08
(c) If the process mean changed to 35.02 mm and the standard deviation remained at
0.1 mm calculate the probability that the mean of a random sample of 9 components would be
outside the warning limits.
(4 marks)
(Total 20 marks)
10
Model Answer to Question 4
(a) The benefits of a good quality control system are better quality products,
fewer rejects and less waste, better customer relations, more sales
(c) z = x–
35.02 – 35.07
0.05
1.5
sd 0.1 0.033
9
Probability the mean lies outside the upper warning limit = 0.067
34.93 – 35.02
2.7
0.1
9
Probability the mean lies outside the lower warning limit = 0.004
11
QUESTION 5
(a) In what circumstances is a significance test based on the ‘t’ distribution used in preference to a
significance test based on the normal distribution?
(4 marks)
Data input clerks are sent on an intensive training course to increase their keyboarding speed. The
results of a before and after test for a random sample of 10 clerks gave the following results. Speed is
measured in key depressions per minute (kdp).
Clerk a b c d e f g h i j
Before training
course (kdp) 625 598 685 754 658 690 559 840 758 685
After training
course (kdp) 610 620 690 780 690 702 573 851 744 690
(b) Test whether the training course has increased the clerks’ data input speed.
(12 marks)
(Total 20 marks)
12
Model Answer to Question 5
(a) The ‘t’ distribution is used when n the sample size is small <30 and the
standard deviation is estimated from the sample.
(b) Null hypothesis: The course has not increased the speed of the
data input clerks
Alternative hypothesis: The course has increased the speed of the
data input clerks
Degree of freedom n – 1 10 – 1 = 9
Critical t0.05 value = 1.83
V
LId – d I
2
Ld –
2 d 2
98 n
d 'Lnd
10
9.8 sed =
n –1 n –1
982
3,116 –
2,155.8 239.53 15.48 or 10
= 10 – 1 10 – 1
(c) A Type I error is the error of rejecting a null hypothesis that is true and
a Type II error is the error of accepting a false null hypothesis which
should be rejected.
13
QUESTION 6
(a) (i) What is meant by the standard error of the mean? (4 marks)
(ii) What is the difference between a one and two tail test? (4 marks)
In September 2001, a Travel Agent used a random sample of 36 holiday makers to find out the
average cost per person of a one week holiday in Ruritania. The following information was found:
September 2001
Mean £372.40
Standard deviation £26.10
Sample size 36
In the previous year the average cost of each holiday was £356.20.
(b) Test whether the cost of a one week holiday to Ruritania has increased significantly since the
previous year.
(6 marks)
The company based its views on customer satisfaction from the letters it receives. In the previous
year, 68% of the letters it received were of a positive nature.
(c) The company wishes to adopt a more scientific approach to estimating customer satisfaction.
What sample size would be needed to estimate the proportion of customers’ views to within 2% of
the true figure at the 95% confidence level?
(6 marks)
(Total 20 marks)
14
Model Answer to Question 6
(a) (i) The standard error of the mean is the measure of dispersion of the
sample means. It equals
n
(ii) A one tail test tests the direction of the difference between two statistics.
A two tail test tests if there is a difference between the two statistics without
regard to the direction.
z = x – =
372.4 – 356.2 16.2 = 3.72
=
/ n 26.1/ 36 4.35
0.02 0.02
(c) 1.96 1.96
p(1 – p) 0.68 x 0.32
n n
2
0.02 0.0004 3.8416 x 0.2176 > 2,089.8
1.962 > 0.68 x 0.32 3.8416 > 0.2176 n> 0.0004
n n
n = 2,090
15
QUESTION 7
(a) In what circumstances is the multiplicative model preferable to the additive model in time series
calculations?
(4 marks)
The table below shows the quarterly sales figures for a company:
(b) By the method of centred moving averages, calculate the trend values for the time series and plot
the trend on a graph.
(10 marks)
The average seasonal components calculated by the multiplicative method are shown below:
(c) Using the average seasonal components provided above and the original sales figures, calculate
the seasonally adjusted sales and plot the results on the graph constructed for part (b). Comment
on your results.
(6 marks)
(Total 20 marks)
16
Model Answer to Question 7
(a) The multiplicative model is preferable when the data has a strong trend with the
differences between the trend and the original data values varying proportionally to
the trend values rather than absolutely.
(b)
Comment: The trend and seasonally adjusted data values show little difference.
This implies there is no change in the underlying trend.
18
QUESTION 8
From its records, a company analyses its sales by size and region. The table below shows the results:
Size of order
Region £0 and up to £1,000 and up £3,000 and up £10,000 and
£1,000 to £3,000 to £10,000 over
Northern 40 33 20 15
Midlands 50 45 40 25
Southern 40 32 40 20
(b) Test whether there is a relationship between size of order and region.
(12 marks)
(c) Combining the three regions estimate a 99% confidence interval for the proportion of orders that
are valued at less than £1,000.
(4 marks)
(Total 20 marks)
19
Model Answer to Question 8
(a) The Chi-squared test is used to test for association between characteristics
rather than variables, for randomness or changes in proportions.
(b)
Critical 2 = 12.59
(c)
0.265 to 0.385
20
BUSINESS STATISTICS
FORMULAE THIRD LEVEL
Coefficient of variation Xi - X2 z = PI - p2
z = 52 s 2
z 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
A .500 .540 .580 .618 .655 .692 .726 .758 .788 .816
Independent samples t test
z 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
A .841 .864 .885 .903 .919 .933 .945 .955 .984 .971
z 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 t = Rx1- - -Y1 where s
I.(x - x)' + I.(y -
n + m - 2
y)'
A .en .982 .986 .989 .992 .994 .995 .996 .997 .998
s- + -
n m
TABLE 2 - t DISTRIBUTION
lA is the value of the t statistic with 11
degrees of freedom with area A to the
right of it
Chi-square test x•
0 'A
v 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Test for p 0
t 0.05 6.31 2.92 2.35 2.13 2.02 1.94 1.90 1.86
t 0.025 12.71 4.30 3.18 2.78 2.57 2.45 2.37 2.31
t 0.01 31.82 6.97 4.54 3.75 3.37 3.14 3.00 2.90
t 0.005 63.66 9.93 5.84 4.60 4.03 3.71 3.50 3.36
TABLE 3 -CHI SQUARED DISTRIBUTION
II 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
t 0.05 1.83 1.81 1.80 1.78 1.77 1.76 1.75 1.75
x•A is the value of the x• statistic with 11 degrees of freedom with area
t 0.025 2.26 2.23 2.20 2.18 2.16 2.15 2.13 2.12 A to the right of it
t 0,01 2.82 2.76 2.72 2.68 2.65 2.62 2.60 2.58
t 0.005 3.25 3.17 3.11 3.05 3.01 2.98 2.95 2.92
.
11
1
3.84
2
5.99
3
7.81
4
9.49
5
11.07
6
12.59
II
t 0.05
17
1.74
18
1.73
19
1.73
20
1.73
21
1.72
22
1.72
23
1.71
24
1.71 .
"0.01
"0 .05
6.83 9.21 11.34 13.28 15.09 16.81
..
t 0.025 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 7 8 9 10 11 12
t 0.01 2.57 2.55 2.54 2.53 2.52 2.51 2.50 2.49 11
14.07 15.51 16.92 18.31 19.68 21.03
t 0.005 2.90 2.88 2.86 2.85 2.83 2.82 2.81 2.80 "0 .05
)(0.01 18.48 20.09 21.67 23.21 24.73 26.22