What now for Iran? and For India?

From mobilizing its allies in the Middle East to blocking shipping in a

strategic waterway or even launching a cyber attack far beyond its borders,
Iran has no shortage of options to avenge the killing of top commander
Qasem Soleimani by its arch foe the United States.

Tehran's clerical leadership promised "severe vengeance... in the

right place and time," but is nonetheless expected to carefully weigh the
dangers of retaliation to a regime that has been in place since the ousting
of the pro-American shah in 1979.

“We can't know whether the Iranians will decide that a drastic
escalation and retaliation is the best tactic, or whether they go for a
measured, perhaps even non-violent response," Heiko Wimmen, project
director of the International Crisis Group (ICG) for Iraq, Syria and Lebanon,
told AFP.

Iran learned the merits of asymmetric warfare -- fighting a power with

greater military might than your own -- in the deadly 1980-1988 war against
Iraq. Its strong influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and beyond means it
has several levers against the US presence in the region..

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution noted that in the past

Tehran "has absorbed major blows... without immediately yielding to
temptation to strike back in some kind of reckless fashion," and revenge
may not come right away.

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Here are the main options Iran might consider to avenge the death of a
man who was commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards
and masterminded its operations across the Middle East.

Proxies sow trouble

Throughout the region, Iran backs forces with the potential to cause havoc,
from Huthi rebels in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq to Hezbollah in
Lebanon.

Iraq is set to be the key battleground. Pro-Iranian Shia militias could work
to drive US forces out of Iraq and also destabilize the Iraqi government to
create a new domestic political crisis.

"I suspect there will be a lot of pressure on the US military presence now in
Iraq," said Alex Vatanka of the Washington-based Middle East Institute,
adding a pullout would be a "major strategic loss for the United States in
the Middle East."

Elsewhere, Iranian proxies could torpedo hopes of peace in Yemen, while

Hezbollah could stir up trouble in Lebanon or launch an attack on Israel to
the south.

"Israel is a target as well. Iran sees Israel as just an extension of the United
States," said Matt Levitt, director of the Program on Counterterrorism and
Intelligence at the Washington Institute.

Cyber Attack

A more subtle step would be for Iran to launch a cyber attack

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Analysts believe Tehran has stepped up its capacity to attack key Western
cyber infrastructure and has even built up a so-called "cyber army" that
pledges allegiance to the Islamic Republic.

Loic Guezo, head of French information security group Clusif, said Iran's
cyber-attacks above all sought to damage industrial targets such as dams
or power stations.

"What is feared here is the impact on society -- electricity cuts, poisoning,

gas leaks, explosions, transport chaos and hospitals," he told AFP.

Oil blockade

Oil prices initially soared more than four percent on fears that Soleimani's
killing could lead to disruption of oil supplies from the Middle East. A major
fear is that Iran could block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the
world's most congested transit points.

Its Western foes have accused Iran of being behind a major attack on
Saudi oil installations and Iran has in recent months also repeatedly seized
tankers operating in the Gulf.

"Iran has shown that it can hit ships and block ships," said Jean Charles
Brisard, head of the Centre for Analysis of Terrorism in France. "But is a
blockade conceivable?" he asked.

Military strike

The most apocalyptic scenario would be a military strike by Iran using its
ballistic missile arsenal against US, Israeli or Saudi interests in the region,
a move that would risk prompting an all-out regional conflict.

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"The worst-case scenario is a 1914 moment," said Naysan Rafati, ICG's
senior Iran analyst, envisioning clashes between the US and its allies on
one side and Iran and its proxies on the other in Syria, Yemen or Iraq.

However Rafati said Iran was unlikely to attack US soil, and analysts
believe whatever action Tehran takes will not jeopardize its survival.

. "The basic assumption still is that both the US and Iran want the other to
back down rather than direct war," Wimmen said.

Vatanka said the Iranian leadership was "opportunistic" not "suicidal",

adding: "If there's an opportunity that they can take advantage of, they will."

Slotkin said that "what always kept both Democratic and Republican
presidents from targeting Soleimani himself was the simple question: Was
the strike worth the likely retaliation, and the potential to pull us into
protracted conflict?, adding that "the two administrations I worked for both
determined that the ultimate ends didn't justify the means."

Specifically, Slotkin cited the potential retaliation from Iran against US

troops, diplomats, and allied forces in the region as a major reason, writing
that "it is critical that the Administration has thought out the moves and
counter-moves this attack will precipitate."

Six members of the Popular Mobilization Forces, an official Iraqi

militia organization with ties to Iran, were killed in another U.S. drone strike
in northern Baghdad on Friday, multiple officials told Newsweek. The strike
comes a day after President Donald Trump approved an operation that
killed an elite Iranian general.

Pentagon officials told Newsweek Friday evening the operation was

targeting Imam Ali Brigades with a "high probability" the strike resulted in

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the death of its leader, Shubul al-Zaidi. The U.S. operation that targeted
Zaidi was apart of the same degradation effort Trump approved Thursday
morning, which killed Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Force commander
Major General Qassem Soleimani.

The Popular Mobilization Forces confirmed to Newsweek that an air

raid targeted one of their convoys near Taji Stadium in Baghdad, but have
so far denied the deaths of Zaidi, along with Saraya al-Khorasani head
Hamid al-Jazaery and another militia leader Raed al-Karawi.

The Imam Ali Brigades were one of the mostly Shiite Muslim militias
to take arms, forming the Popular Mobilization Forces in response to the
Islamic State (ISIS) militant group's partial takeover of Iraq in 2013 and
2014. Newsweek spoke to one of its most notable commanders Ayyub
Faleh Hassan al-Rubaie, also known as "the Archangel of Death" in June
2017, a month before ISIS was defeated at Iraq's second city of Mosul.

The operation was not coordinated with the Iraqi government, and fueled
anger among pro-Popular Mobilization Forces supporters, who stormed the
gates of Washington's embassy in Baghdad on New Year's Eve. They set
fires and defaced entry structures for two days. Iran offered support for the
demonstrations, but a day after they subsided and additional troops arrived,
Soleimani was killed, alongside two other Popular Mobilization Forces
officials, deputy head Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and protocol head
Mohammed Redha al-Jabri.

“India has tried to balance its relationships within the region and with the
US and Iran, and escalation might result in countries putting pressure on it
to make choices Delhi does not want to make,” said Tanvi Madan, senior
fellow at Brookings Institute in Washington.
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