BowTie Risk Assessment

Dela Cruz | Guinto

Overview

The bowtie method is a risk assessment

method that can be used to analyse and
communicate how high risk scenarios
develop. The diagram is shaped like a
bow tie, creating a clear differentiation
between the proactive and reactive side
of risk management.
Overview
1. Provide a structure to systematically
analyse a hazard.
2. Help make a decision whether the
current level of control is sufficient
3. Help identify where and how investing
resources would have the greatest
impact.
4. Increase risk communication and
awareness.
Legends
Methodology
1. Hazards
● Part of your organization that could have

a negative impact if control is lost

● Suitable for major hazardous scenarios

● Use specialized hazardous identification

method
Formulating Hazards
1. Describe the hazard in desired (controlled) state

2. Use commonly accepted names

3. Provide situational context

4. Give an indication of scale

Which of these is not a hazard?
Which of these is not a hazard?
1. Hazards
● What can be dangerous at this location?

● What are the things we need to be careful

with during day-to-day operations?

● What are potential sources of risk that

can lead to loss or damage?

2. Top Event
● Moment when control is lost over the

hazard

● Works best if it has multiple causes and

consequences

● Catastrophes and disasters are not a top

event.
2. Top Event
● When do we lose control over this

hazardous?

● What change of state of the hazard makes

us lose control?

● What is the moment that normal business

changes into abnormal business?

2. Top Event
3. Threats
● Factors that will cause the top event
● Avoid usage of general formulations like
“human factor” or “equipment failure”
● It is advised to be specific on what
caused the failure
● Consider the prevalence (size) of a
threat
● Barrier failures are not threats
 3. Threats
THREATS
If piece of equipment that is part
of the primary process fails (such
as an engine failure in a helicopter,
or a pipeline integrity failure in an
installation)
BARRIER FAILURES
when the function of a piece of
equipment is safety related, its
failure can never occur as a threat.
Every safety measure should be
thought of as a barrier, and not as
a threat described as a failed
barrier.
Examples:
Lack of <……> , Failure of <……> , Absence of
<……> Etc.
3. Threats
THREATS VS. FAILED BARRIERS
3. Threats

● What can cause this top event to

happen?
● What caused this top event to happen
in the past?
4. Consequence
● These are the results of the top
events
● There can be more than one
consequence for every top event
● Being specific is advised in order to
be able to identify the barriers more
specifically
Example: Oil spill into the sea is more
preferable than environmental damage
The picture so far:

The hazard, top event, threats

and consequences give us an
overview. Every line in the bow tie
represents a potential incident.
One of the strengths of the bowtie
is that is provides room for
scenarios which have not
occurred yet
5. Barriers: Controlling Unwanted Scenarios

● Barriers are also referred as

controls, safety measures or
layers of protection
● Barriers in the bowtie appear
on both sides of the top event.
Barriers interrupt the scenario
so that the threats do not
result in the top event or do
not escalate into actual
unwanted consequences.
6. Escalation Factors

● Reduces or defeats the

effectiveness of barriers
● Escalation factors can give
an answer to why a barrier
can be ineffective
● However you do not describe
all the potential failure modes.
Only describe the real
weaknesses of your control
framework and how you want
to manage that.