TIME SERIES MODEL APPLIED TO PREDICT

THE WIND POWER ENERGY PRODUCTION

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Irina Meghea1

Prof. Dr. Mihaela Mihai2
Assoc. Prof. Dr. George Cristian Lazaroiu3
1
University POLITEHNICA of Bucharest, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Department of Mathematical
Methods and Models, Romania
2
University POLITEHNICA of Bucharest, Faculty of Applied Chemistry and Materials Sciences,
Department of Chemical Engineering; Romania
3
University POLITEHNICA of Bucharest, Faculty of Power Engineering, Department of Power Systems;
Romania

ABSTRACT
Wind power, via wind turbine, transform mechanical energy to electrical energy. It is an alternative
to burning fossil fuels, is plentiful, renewable, widely distributed, clean, produces no greenhouse
gas emissions during operation, consumes no water, and uses little surface of land. The net effects
on the environment are far less problematic than those of fossil fuel sources.
This paper proposes a forecasting model based on time series technique for wind power energy
generation. The increasing use of renewable energy from solar and wind sources has gained
acceptance and is being increasingly used. The main problems with these energies sources are the
dependence of power output on the environmental parameters and the circadian variation. In order
to obtain a continuous time series, average daily specific power records, W/m2, are used and
moving average and exponential smoothing were tested to evidence the trend and seasonal
patterns. The resulting data were correlated in mathematical models which were in good agreement
with data collected from a Romanian wind power energy plant.
Keywords: time series technique, wind energy generation, forecasting model, probabilistic
forecasting.

Introduction
Wind power generation differs from conventional generation due to the stochastic nature of wind.
Unforecasted events can affect electricity system reliability and have high economic value
compared to cost of models that can predict them. Wind forecasts models become essential for
effective electrical grids management [1, 2]. The ordinary weather forecasting is a challenge. The
wind is typically created by small pressure gradients operating over large distances that are hard
to forecast accurately. In the same time, turbulent and chaotic processes are important and harder
to forecast. An important factor: the local topography can have a strong influence to generate wind,
but not included in standard weather models [3]. As it is known, plant power curves are highly
non‐linear, so small errors in wind prediction determine big errors in electric power which is
concretized in unexpected losses for the plant and downtime and may operate sub‐optimally.
Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in the balancing supply and demand in any electricity
system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power
forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind
power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and integrating unit into
electric power system. This paper applies the time series model in wind power forecasting and
prediction. Firstly, the electric power of a Romanian plant data was analyzed to determine the
properties of the time series and then the statistical models for power prediction are propose. Then
the quality of forecasts are analyzed, and the performance of various approaches over different
forecast time horizons is examined.
Experimental data
The experimental data collected during 2014-2017 from an electric wind power station located in
Dobrogea Romania are analyzed. These data form an hourly time series. The histogram of these
data presented in Fig. 1 is asymmetric with a long tail towards positive values. This histogram
suggest that the time series are periodic or seasonal properties.

4500
4000
3500
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Frequency

2500
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0
0
5
10
15
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More

P, MW

Fig. 1. Histogram of the data collected between 2014 – 2017.

To support this assertion, the CUSUM chart of these data was built because this chart is very
sensitive to highlighting the trend of data (see Fig. 2). The analysis of this chart shows a seasonal
trend changes. These changes occur in the months with the highest meteorological instability in
region, namely in April and November and in August, a month of maximum meteorological
stability in Romania. At the same time, the small fluctuations of the trend suggest that they may
vary with the circadian cycle, weekly or monthly. In other words, the time scale at which the model
is formulated may influence its quality.
Replacing these data with monthly average values smoothly fluctuations and better outlines the
seasonal trend of data as shown in Figure 3.
 10000

0
0 1500 3000 4500 6000 7500 9000 10500 12000 13500 15000 16500 18000 19500

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

-50000

Fig. 2. CUSUM chart of data between January 2014 and June 2016.

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

-10

-20

-30

-40

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-60

-70

Fig. 3. CUSUM chart of monthly average data between January 2014 and June 2016.
The data from Figure 4 were correlated by nonlinear regression in the following mathematical
model:
 𝜋(𝑡 − 10.17)
𝑦(𝑡) = 21.91 + 10.42sin⁡[ ]
6.4
The curves presented in Fig. 5 reveal a good agreement between experimental data and statistical
model.

45
40
35
30
P, MW

25
20 Actual
15 Forecast
10
5
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
time, month

Fig. 4. Charts of monthly average data between January 2014 and June 2016, respectively moving
average.

50

movingaverage data
sin fit curve
40

30
P, MW

20

10

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0 6 12 18 24 30 36
time, month

Fig. 5. Correlation between statistical model and smoothly data with moving average method.
Conclusion
As shown in the paper [2], time series can be applied when monitor a continuous phenomenon
involving a huge volume of data. The purpose of usage of time series properties is to understand
the principal factors that determine the observed data and to fit them into a model that can be used
to forecasting. The essential difference between modeling data via time series methods and using
the process monitoring methods is that time series analysis reveal internal structure of data such
trend or seasonality.
This research obtains a mathematical model of power prediction for wind power plant which is
justified by the benefits of this sustainable energy and by the increased production in recent years.
In this paper, only the smoothly data with moving average give a mathematical model in good
agreement with the experimental data. The model can predict the power of the next month.
References
1. David Barbosa de Alencar, Carolina de Mattos Affonso, Roberto Célio Limão de Oliveira,
Jorge LaureanoMoya Rodríguez, Jandecy Cabral Leite, José Carlos Reston Filho, Different
Models for ForecastingWind Power Generation: Case Study, Energies, Energies 2017, 10,
1976, pages 2-27.
2. Aoife M. Foley, Paul G.Leahy, Antonino Marvuglia, Eamon J.McKeogh, Current methods and
advances in forecasting of wind power generation, Renewable Energy, Volume 37, Issue
1, January 2012, Pages 1-8.
3. Wang, X.; Guo, P.; Huang, X. A review of wind power forecasting models. Energy Procedia
2011, 12, Pages 770–778.
4. Irina Meghea, Mihaela Mihai, George Cristian Lazaroiu, TIME SERIES MODEL APPLIED
TO PREDICT THE SOLAR POWER PRODUCTION, SGEM 2018