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An investigation into rail freight capacity in Indonesia

Conference Paper · April 2014

DOI: 10.13140/2.1.4436.8002

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 Transport Research Arena 2014, Paris

An investigation into rail freight capacity in Indonesia

Clare Woroniuk*, Paulus Aditjandra, Thomas H Zunder
NewRail, Newcastle Centre for Railway Research, Freight & Logistics Research Group, School of Mechanical and Systems
Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, United Kingdom

Abstract

Previous research has suggested that rail services in Indonesia, in particular for freight, have been in decline for
more than a decade due to a number of factors including: the Asian monetary crisis (1997), the prioritisation of
passenger services and strong competition from the road sector. However, in 2007 the government introduced a
National Railway Master Plan (NRMP), for railway revitalisation. Following this, in 2011, a strategic economic
corridor approach has been adopted- with the aim of accelerating and expanding development in Indonesia,
including rail.
This study aims to contextualise a rail capacity framework, to be applied to the Indonesian system, with a focus
on freight services. This will be achieved through a desktop review of methodologies employed for capacity
evaluation, in order to identify the most suitable methodological approach. In addition, a review of two rail
freight case studies in neighbouring countries will be presented, alongside the current situation for rail freight in
Indonesia. A number of approaches to examine capacity through analytical, simulation and optimisation methods
will be discussed and for Indonesia, a combination of analytical and simulation methods has been proposed. It is
anticipated that the application of these methodologies will assist in determining current capacity- utilised and
unutilised - the results from which can be exercised in future strategic planning.
Keywords: Rail freight, capacity evaluation, analytical methods, simulation methods, optimisation methods

Résumé

Des recherches antérieures ont suggéré que les services ferroviaires en Indonésie, en particulier pour le fret, ont
été en baisse depuis plus d'une décennie en raison d'un certain nombre de facteurs: la crise asiatique monétaire
(1997), la hiérarchisation des services de passagers et de la forte concurrence de la secteur routier. Cependant, en
2007, le gouvernement a présenté un plan directeur des chemins de fer nationaux (NRMP), pour la revitalisation
des chemins de fer. Par la suite, en 2011, une approche stratégique du corridor économique a été adopté- dans le
but d'accélérer le développement et l'expansion en Indonésie, y compris le rail. Cette étude vise à contextualiser
un cadre de la capacité ferroviaire, à appliquer au système indonésien, avec un accent sur les services de fret. Cet
objectif sera atteint grâce à un examen de bureau des méthodes utilisées pour l'évaluation des capacités, afin
d'identifier l'approche méthodologique plus adapté. En outre, un examen des deux études de cas du fret
ferroviaire dans les pays voisins sera présenté, aux côtés de la situation actuelle pour le fret ferroviaire en
Indonésie. Un certain nombre d'approches pour examiner la capacité grâce à des méthodes d'analyse, de
simulation et d'optimisation sera discuté et pour l'Indonésie, une combinaison de méthodes d'analyse et de
simulation a été proposé. Il est prévu que l'application de ces méthodes aidera à déterminer la capacité -utilisées
et inutilisées actuel - les résultats à partir de laquelle peuvent être exercés à l'avenir la planification stratégique.
Mots-clés: Le fret ferroviaire, l'évaluation des capacités, méthodes d'analyse, les méthodes de simulation, les
méthodes d'optimisation

*
Corresponding author: Clare Woroniuk Tel.: +44(0) 191 222 8641
E-mail address: clare.woroniuk@ncl.ac.uk
 Woroniuk, Aditjandra, Zunder/ Transport Research Arena 2014, Paris 2

1. Introduction
Indonesian rail developed during the Dutch colonial period, around one hundred and fifty years ago. The aim of
railway development was to optimise freight operation between inland farming producers in Java and the ports,
in order to allow Indonesian produce to enter the international market. Up until 1939, the railway network was
expanding – to 6,800 track km - however rail services in Indonesia, in particular rail freight services, have been
in decline now for more than a decade (Kawaguchi et al 2010). This is as a result of various factors, including
the Asian monetary crisis in 1997, prioritisation of passenger services, ageing rolling stock and strong
competition from the road sector.

Recent statistics report a meagre rail mode share in Indonesia of 7% for passenger and 0.6% for freight, while
road dominates the transport network, with 84% passenger and 91% freight (Muthohar 2010). By comparison,
shipping has a lower modal share than road and rail. (Meyrick 2012). While it is acknowledged that shipping
will play a prominent role in future development, due to the archipelagic nature of the country, currently a
number of issues are preventing rapid shipping development. These include; limited port capacity, high port
access costs, unreliable port performance and high cost and unreliability of domestic shipping services. (Meyrick
2012) In many cases the road network is considered to have a more strategic role than other transport modes
(Lubis 2005), as a result of the rapid development benefits that road expansion brings. The impact of competition
from road on rail is demonstrated through railway line closures, across the four regional operations: Java, South
Sumatra, North Sumatra and West Sumatra, where 2,000 track km have been closed following a loss of market
share to road, leaving only 4,000 track km in operation.

However, research has indicated that the dominance of road within the freight market can also lead to negative
impacts. These include: congestion - as a result of high numbers of vehicles on the roads, an increase in
emissions - most prevalent in urban areas which are often the origin or destination, and vehicle overloading
(Lubis et al 2007, Castro et al 2007). Damage to infrastructure may occur as a consequence of overloading,
which can result in an increase to maintenance instances and cost. Previous research into freight operations in
Java suggests that commodities most likely to result in infrastructure damage as a result of overloading include
sand, cement and chemical products, which can all be classified as bulk goods (Kawaguchi et al 2010). These
have the potential to be transported by rail freight, at greater economies of scale.

The strategic economic corridor approach MP3EI master plan (MP3EI) has been adopted by the Indonesian
government, in order to accelerate and expand Indonesian economic development. Within the MP3EI there are
plans to develop rail, particularly freight, to link industries with ports. The MP3EI embraces the involvement of
plans and activities across a number of ministries, including finance, trade, agriculture, fisheries and transport.
Rail modal shift to achieve green logistics is one of the approaches promoted, which has been adopted by the
ministry of transportation in response to the commitment of the signed Kyoto Protocol agreement to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions in the long term.

Along with the many activities involving the realisation of economic development through the strategic
corridors, there are, at the top level, priority projects to promote rail modal shift. These include the following: on
Sumatra the aim is to increase the capacity of rail to support the palm oil industry (MP3EI 2011). In addition, rail
construction is planned to support the coal and steel industries. Rail construction is also planned on Kalimantan
to transport coal. To achieve this, from 2011-2015 the government aims to improve the role of trains to handle
long distance cargo transport in Java and Sumatra. Following this, from 2016-2020, it is anticipated that a trans-
Java, trans- Sumatra railway will be developed, to connect production centres and transport nodes. Leading on
from this, by 2021- 2025 it is expected that rail will carry out effective operations as the main alternative to road
freight (Bahagia et al 2013). It is anticipated that the transport of freight by rail will lead to an increase in
network capacity, alongside a decrease in negative impacts caused by the dominance of road freight, including
congestion and infrastructure damage. This has potential benefits for Infrastructure Managers, suppliers and
passengers.

Building on prior investigation, this study aims to contextualise a rail capacity framework, to be applied to the
Indonesian system, with a focus on freight services. This will be achieved through a desktop review of
methodologies employed for capacity evaluation, in order to identify the most suitable approach. In addition, two
case studies will be presented. These will include a review of rail development in neighbouring developing
countries. In support of the evaluation of capacity methodologies, these will identify measures implemented
successfully elsewhere, which could be beneficial to Indonesia.
 Woroniuk, Aditjandra, Zunder/ Transport Research Arena 2014, Paris

2. Methodology

For this research, a desktop methodology has been employed to identify a suitable methodological approach for
capacity evaluation, to be implemented in Indonesia. For the purpose of the study, the literature under review has
been split into two streams: approaches to analysing railway capacity, and evaluation methods for rail capacity,
the latter of which was subdivided further into three: analytical methods, simulation methods and optimisation
methods. Following this, two case studies of rail freight within developing environments will be presented, with
cases from India and Malaysia. The literature selection process was conducted through the use of library
databases including web of knowledge and Scopus, wherein keywords were selected to ensure that the search
was relevant. These included: rail freight, rail capacity, rail freight and developing countries. A number of
journals were included in the search including: Transportation Research Part A-F, Transport Planning and
Technology, Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transport Studies , European Journal of Operational
Research and Journal of Transportation Engineering.

3. Indonesian Rail Freight

The Indonesian transportation sector and the railway subsector are currently undergoing the preliminary stages
of migration, from a state-monopolised economy to the open market for industrial services. Indonesia is
projected to become an economically advanced country in 2025 and national economic mobility cannot depend
on the highway network alone. This is especially true since the extensive highway development, as evidenced in
developed countries, proves to be unsustainable. The National Railway Master Plan (NRMP), a formal
governmental document outlining policies, strategies and a structured, detailed and scheduled programme
concerning the revitalization of the national railways – a road map – including the investment design and the
business plan for the next 20 years, was mandated in 2007 to address the projection of passenger and freight
movement, based on origin and destination of travel on a national level. A number of outputs from the NRMP
are preceded through a series of seminars and workshops with railways’ stakeholders and address a number of
current Indonesian railways issues (source: Dikun, 2010) including: The policy framework of the transportation
sector in Indonesia, Operating conditions of Indonesian railways, Market analysis and forecast, Development
priorities of Indonesian Railways, Institutional Options of Indonesian Railways, Strategic conditions for the
future of Indonesian Railways and Development of a regional railway master plan.

Large-scale investment is required to increase the capability of Indonesian Railways (Dikun, 2010). Out of the
6,797 km of the total railway network in Indonesia, only 3,327 km is integrated as a network and these 3,327 km
are all on the Island of Java (see Fig. 1b). The remaining networks are separated in three regions on the Island of
Sumatra (see Fig 1a). Only 4,675 km of the track is operational. In terms of axle load, the Indonesian railway
network remains of a low standard: only 9-18 tonnes, with relatively low size and a rail weight between 33kg/m
(R33) to 54 kg/m (R54). Both of these load characteristics - rail strength and carrying capacity - limit the
capability of Indonesia’s railway network.

Fig. 1(a) Sumatra rail network; (b) Java rail network with
potential rail freight commodity. Source: (Dikun, 2010)

The current rail freight market in Indonesia is small, for reasons including: distances from extraction or
production to storage are about 250-300km; secondly, the total freight load is limited by low axle load capacity.
19 billion tonnes of goods lifted in 2008 were delivered by rail freight in Sumatra and Java, and a similar figure
in 2009, totalling trips of circa 5,500 billion tonnes-km (Dikun, 2010). 80% of goods lifted are on Sumatra, with
over 15 billion tonnes of goods. There has been an increase in rail freight use in Sumatra since 2007 due to coal,
fertilisers, palm oil, cement and container traffic. In Java, the rail freight figure is lower, despite a better-
 Woroniuk, Aditjandra, Zunder/ Transport Research Arena 2014, Paris 4

integrated system, due to high passenger dominance of capacity with 95% of the national level in this land
grouping.

4. Review of railway capacity literature

A rail transportation system is institutionally a network of links and nodes; the links of the network refer to the
lines of track over which the movement of traffic occurs (Assad, 1980), while the nodes refer to stations or yards
where carriers pick up or deliver traffic. This paper aims to contextualise a rail capacity framework, to be applied
in Indonesia, which will be situated within a management level. As a consequence, it is important to have a clear
understanding of the three planning levels: strategic, tactical and operational (Anthony, 1965). Strategic
planning addresses resource acquisition in the long term, including changes in the link structure of the rail
network and the location of classification yards. Tactical planning focuses on resource allocation in the medium
term, such as timetable, rolling stock and crew schedules. Lastly, operational planning decisions reflect the day-
to-day activities of the rail system, for example empty wagon distribution, engine scheduling, timetabling and
dispatching policies.

4.1 Approaches to analysing railway capacity

Within the literature, railway capacity has been extensively researched and a large number of methods for
capacity evaluation have been presented (Kraft, 1982), (Burdett & Kozan, 2006) and (Petersen,1974). Railway
capacity is a complex term that is influenced by a number of factors, including infrastructure, traffic, railway
layout and operating parameters. As a consequence there is no recognised definition. In its simplest form rail
capacity can be defined as, “the total number of standard train paths that can be accommodated across a critical
section in a given time period” (Burdett & Kozan 2006). However, for the purpose of this research, rail capacity
will be understood as: “a measure of the ability to move a specific amount of traffic over a defined rail line with
a given set of resources under a specific service plan.” (Krueger, 1999)

Discussion in the literature considers railway capacity to be determined in four categories: theoretical, practical,
used, and available. Theoretical capacity calculates the upper limit for line capacity, identifying the number of
trains that could run over a route during a pre-determined time period. The operational conditions required
include trains which run constantly and a headway which is restricted to a minimum. It is important to note that
theoretical capacity does not consider variations within operations and it is not physically possible to run the
total number of trains that have been calculated, in reality. Practical capacity calculates the total traffic volumes
it is possible to operate along a line, with a satisfactory level of reliability. The combination of infrastructure,
traffic and operations are considered and, as a result, practical capacity is considered to provide a more realistic
capacity measure than theoretical capacity. The total is normally around 60-75% of theoretical capacity (Kraft
1982). As a rule, used capacity is lower than practical capacity, due to operational implications. It can be defined
as the sum of operations occurring over the network. Available capacity is calculated by subtracting used
capacity from practical capacity, to identify the potential for additional volume along the route.

4.2 Evaluation methods for rail capacity

For the purpose of this research, three approaches to the study of rail capacity have been identified as the most
suitable, due to their prevalence in the literature: analytical methods, simulation modelling and optimisation
methods. Analytical methods employ mathematical formulae and algebraic equations to obtain simple models.
As a result they are usually employed as a preliminary method of evaluation, but can also be used to validate and
calibrate optimisation or simulation models. Simulation models are employed to obtain an in depth replication of
railway systems, during a given time period. Optimisation models build on the analytical approach and aim to
optimise the railway timetable.

Analytical methods
The state of the art indicates that a number of analytical methods have been employed during the study of rail
networks, yards and lines. In 1974, Petersen presented a single track analytical model for implementation in
traffic planning. The model incorporates three different speed limits for each direction: 80 miles per hour for
passenger, 50 miles per hour for fast freight and 30 miles per hour for way freight. It is assumed however that
departure times are uniformly distributed. Another example of an analytical approach is provided by Huisman et
al (2002) who aimed to develop a solvable queuing network model that computes measures of interest without
requiring train schedules. This research begins with the division of the railway network into stations, junctions
 Woroniuk, Aditjandra, Zunder/ Transport Research Arena 2014, Paris

and sections. It is argued that, through the provision of a clear definition of each of these components, the
railway network is transformed into a product from a queuing network.

The formation of a product from a queuing network justifies the decomposition of the network and its
components, which in turn justifies a more detailed analysis of each component in isolation. To obtain this
product result, some simplifying and modifying assumptions have to be made. The presented model employs
M/M/m queues meaning that closed form expressions for mean delays are obtained. The model is capable of
evaluating network designs, traffic scenarios and capacity expansions. (Huisman et al 2002). An attempt to
standardise the approach to capacity evaluation was presented by UIC in 2005 (add ref here). The leaflet 406 on
capacity was produced to provide guidance on capacity evaluation; it detailed a methodology for the calculation
of capacity on railway lines, through timetable compression. Capacity consumption is measured by the
occupation of infrastructure during a given time period. Timetable stabilisation and necessary maintenance are
considered within the methodology, through the addition of a suitable time period to the formula.

In addition to line and network models, a number of methods have been applied in the study of rail freight yards.
Peterson (1977a&b) and Karagyzov et al. (1990a) have developed models that apply queuing theory to yard
operations. Several queuing systems operate with exact formulae, for example M/M/m and G/G/m. M/M/m was
developed by Markov, for use with a single server. M represents Markov arrivals, where the time between
arrivals is exponential. M represents Markov service times, where these are exponentially distributed, while m
represents the number of servers. In this case, when the system capacity is not identified, it is assumed to be
infinite. The number of customers in the queue can be approximated using this formula.

(1)
Lq= Expected number of customers in queue
λ= arrival rate to queue
µ= service rate
G/G/m, is a formula implemented for multi server queues, no exact formula exists; however research has
suggested that this formula, developed by Allen-Cunnen (1978), provides a good approximation:
( ) ( ) (2)
q= q m [ ] 1

Where:
C(A) = Coefficient of variation for inter arrival time
LqM/M/m= expected customers in queue for an M/M/m system.
A more reference-based study is introduced by Burdett and Kozan (2006), who apply an analytical approach, to
calculate theoretical capacity, wherein both static and dynamic railway resources are considered. Capacity is
calculated using train proportions, signal location and dwell time, which provide an average section running
time; as a result, the lower and upper bounds of capacity for the route under analysis, can be determined.

In addition, Jong et al (2009) and Lai et al (2010) discuss an analytical capacity model which calculates hourly
train and passenger throughput, while considering mixed traffic and complex track layouts. Taiwan Railways
Administration implemented this model, during capacity assessment. Lai & Wang (2012) provide a review of the
Taiwan Railways Administration’s capacity model and further develop the idea to include new capacity models
for rail networks with advanced signalling systems.

Simulation methods
A study of the literature suggests that simulation modelling is used more frequently in capacity analysis, due to
its ability to provide a detailed replication of operations (Marinov & Viegas 2011) and as a result of the
sensitivity of analytical models to parameter input and train mix variations, (Abril et al 2008). In the early 1980s,
a model for rail route simulation and optimisation was presented by Peterson and Taylor (1982). The concept
behind the model is to divide the rail route into segments that represent the sections of track between adjacent
switches. Peterson-Taylor’s model contains 1800 routes of code and is implemented in FORTRAN language.
 Woroniuk, Aditjandra, Zunder/ Transport Research Arena 2014, Paris 6

Following this a simulation model for the analysis of a railway section was reported, by Katchaunov et al (1998).
This method applies General Process System Simulation (GPSS) language and contains 350 routes of code. The
model aims to identify the main technological indices for the exploitation of a railway section through different
equipment and changes made in technical configuration and infrastructure.

Furthermore, simulation modelling methodologies for rail evaluation are reported by Dessouky & Leachman
(1995) and Marinov & Viegas (2010). Dessouky & Leachman (1995) identify a simulation modelling
methodology to be used in the study of complex rail networks. This approach considers the challenges of
modelling networks, using an analytical methodology, and presents a methodology for single and double track
networks. Marinov & Viegas (2010) identify a mesoscopic simulation modelling methodology, to capture the
impact of freight operations in a network, through the analysis of individual network components.

Simulation models have also been developed in the study of yards. Marinov &Viegas (2009) proposed a
simulation modelling methodology, for evaluating flat shunted yard operations, to estimate the processing
capability of a flat shunted yard. In addition, the same author identifies a two-step approach to evaluating yard
performance, through the use of event-based simulations. Alongside the development of simulation modelling
methodologies, to support the analysis and evaluation of rail through simulation modelling, a number of
professional software packages have been developed, some of which include: Software tool VirtuOs; Arena
which is built on the SIMAN simulation language Villon Generic Simulation; SIMUL8- Event based simulation
package; Opentrack; RailSys; DeltaRail software; Siemens Rail Software.

For a robust approach, the analysis of rail capacity is undertaken through a combination of simulation and
analytical methods - combinatorial models. Research by van Dijk (2000) combines analytical and simulation
methods to examine whether a combination of both approaches could be successfully applied to study train
movement. Moreover, Lindfeldt (2011) presents a combinatorial model, timetable variant evaluation model, to
analyse capacity for mixed traffic, including slow freight and high speed passenger services. The model
considers both the infrastructure and timetable as variables and has been developed to run in Matlab. The aim of
the model is to provide a realistic estimate for mixed traffic on existing infrastructure, while also identifying the
impact that minor infrastructure adjustments may have on capacity.

Optimisation methods
The third approach to capacity evaluation is optimisation methods and a number of advances in this area are
demonstrated in the literature. Assad (1980) identifies analytical optimising network models that aim to reveal
the optimal route through a network, while incorporating additional costs, such as delays. Crainic & Laporte
(1997) present optimising network models wherein the network is presented in graphical form, with a number of
arcs and nodes. The links between the transport facilities are represented by arcs and the transport facilities are
represented by nodes. The arcs and nodes represent physical capacity and processing capability. As a result, the
processing capability of the network is graphically depicted.
In summary, the methodological approach is often dependent on the specific case or network. Analytical
methods provide a viable option for preliminary analysis; however a disadvantage of this approach may be
model sensitivity to parameter input. For more in depth analysis, simulation and optimisation methods, or a
combination of both, may be employed. Within capacity evaluation, a combination of all three approaches is
commonly employed, wherein analytical modelling may be undertaken, followed by simulation modelling, in
order to authenticate the approach.

5. Review of rail case studies

5.1 Indian Rail Freight

Research by the World Bank (2009) identifies numerous developments by Indian Railways throughout the
period 2001-2008, wherein the transport of freight by rail has been highlighted as an important factor, due to
capacity constraints. In 2001, Indian Railways were in bad repair as a result of financial issues, high asset failure
rates and debts for renewals and replacements; a number of measures were identified to address these issues.

To increase profits, traffic growth was encouraged for goods that could benefit from rail’s economy of scale.
These included bulk commodities, such as coal and minerals. In addition, tariff increases were employed for
 Woroniuk, Aditjandra, Zunder/ Transport Research Arena 2014, Paris

freight rates of bulk commodities, in order to improve the financial state. Following this, train revenue density
and wagon utilisation was reviewed. The overloading of bulk commodities was identified as an area that was
leading to a loss of revenue. To address this, from 2003 average axle loadings for bulk commodities were
increased and charged for appropriately, so that if overloading occurred it could be captured. In 2003 it was
estimated that an increase in axle load, for bulk commodities, led to a 9% increase in the average tonnes charged
per train. Alongside this, wagon utilisation was improved through several proposals to reduce service delays and
the amount of time that wagons are not in service. These included enhanced tracking and wagon management,
which led to a 15% reduction in wagon cycle times. In order to attain higher axle loadings and wagon utilisation,
the government recognised the need for investment in infrastructure; a rail safety fund was established to
develop rail infrastructure, whereby bridges, signalling, upgraded information systems and heavier rail all
received investment.

Throughout the same time period, measures which were implemented with specific reference to freight services
included a rail freight corridor project. In April 2005, as a result of capacity constraints along the Delhi,
Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata quadrilateral, a dedicated rail freight corridor project was proposed, with the aim of
providing a safe and efficient freight transport system. The project was launched in 2006; it will include the
construction of six freight corridors across the country (see Figure 2). To begin with, the construction of two
freight corridors connecting the states of Haryana and Maharashtra, and a corridor to connect the states of Punjab
and West Bengal, were undertaken. The total length of both corridors is estimated at around 2,800km, with a
total project cost of $10bn and an expected completion date of 2017 (Railway Technology 2005). The other
corridors will include: North-South (Delhi-Tamil Nadu); East-West (West Bengal-Maharashtra); East-South
(West Bengal-Andhra Pradesh); and South-South (Tamil Nadu-Goa). These are still in the planning stage.

5.2 Malaysian Rail Freight

In March 2006, the 9th Malaysia plan was announced (The Ninth Malaysia Plan (2009)) with a specific focus on
rail investment. This followed continuing road congestion, accidents, pollution and rising fuel prices. Malaysia
recognised that their previous transport strategy was largely focused on roads and as a result aimed to shift bulk,
long haul and dangerous cargo onto rail, to gain the benefits of more cost- and energy efficient transport. Rail
investment focused on an increase in operational efficiency and the promotion of freight through infrastructure
and rolling stock investment. One of the main areas identified for infrastructure investment, in order to increase
rail capacity and manage rising freight demand, was double tracking and electrification. Between 2006 and 2010,
two double track and electrification projects were completed: Rawang- Ipoh (179km, in 2007) and Sentul-Batu
Caves (7.5km, in 2010). Two further projects are under construction: Seremban- Geman (98km) and Ipoh-
Padang Besar (329km).

On completion of the double track and electrification projects, track capacity increased five fold, along with an
increase in infrastructure capability to accommodate the expansion of services and shorten journey times. For
example, the journey from Ipoh- Kuala Lumpur decreased from 3 hours to 2 hours. In addition, an increase in
maximum speed for all service types was registered: from a maximum speed of 72km/h to 90km/h for freight,
and for Inter City and Commuter services, from 90km/h to 140km/h. Alongside this, an improvement in
operational safety and efficiency was identified, together with the ability of rail to compete more successfully
with other transport modes.

In 2011, the 10th Malaysia plan (The Tenth Malaysia Plan 2010) recognised the progress in rail development
during the preceding years, while also highlighting the requirement to build on this. An extension of the
electrified network was proposed, along with the refurbishment of existing train sets, to accommodate freight
volumes. An increase in access to rural areas by rail was also promoted, for continuing rail development. The
following section will consider measures to enhance rail development, which have been implemented in India
and Malaysia, which can be employed in Indonesia. The most suitable methodology for rail capacity evaluation
will also be discussed.

6. Discussion

To contribute to the national railway master plan, as referred to in the introduction, a rail capacity framework
will be proposed for Indonesia, in order to identify the current capacity status. It is anticipated that the results
from a capacity evaluation will provide valuable input into future strategic development plans. At the present
 Woroniuk, Aditjandra, Zunder/ Transport Research Arena 2014, Paris 8

moment, Indonesian railways are not deemed to hold a positive correlation to the national economy, due to
various issues including state monopoly, passenger transport subsidy, and lack of investment to maintain and
update infrastructure (Dikun, 2010). In line with the MP3EI strategic corridor approach, it is anticipated that
future Indonesian rail development will be linked to an increase in demand for passenger and freight services,
which will occur as a result of economic growth and its redistribution.

In terms of a methodological approach for capacity evaluation, knowledge of current freight operations in
Indonesia must first be considered. These include a network that is not fully interlinked, except on Java Island;
transport distances of between 250-300km; and a relatively low axle load of 9-18 tonnes. Having taken into
account the current operations and the methodological approaches presented within the state of the art,,we
propose that the most suitable approach would be a combination of analytical and simulation approaches. The
analytical approach presented by Burdett and Kozan (2006) would be suitable for this study, as the lower and
upper bounds of capacity could be calculated for each of the routes. This information would provide a valuable
input into future timetable and operational management. To validate the results of the analytical modelling and to
provide a more detailed replication of operations, we suggest the implementation of simulation modelling. The
timetable generator stochastic simulation model (Yalcinkaya & Bayhan 2011) would be suitable, as it would be
possible to evaluate theoretical capacity and determine a realistic timetable for each of these routes. In order to
implement these methodologies, data collection is required; this may include a request for a route timetable,
map, service structure, route operating form, services including train specific information, topography, total axle
load and payload of train.

In previous research, overloading of bulk commodities has been identified as a main factor in damage to
infrastructure by road transport in Indonesia. The evaluation of capacity will identify unutilized capacity on rail
which could then be utilized by bulk commodities. Indonesia may refer to India and Malaysia as cases where the
transfer of bulk commodities from road to rail has been successfully achieved. Alongside this, Indonesia may
wish to employ additional measures, implemented successfully in India, to increase profit in the railways through
an increase in axle load for bulk commodities and an improvement in wagon utilization. Measures that Indonesia
might employ, which have been successfully undertaken in Malaysia, include a double track and electrification
scheme that will lead to an increase in track capacity and infrastructure capability benefits.

7. Conclusion

This research aimed to contextualize a rail capacity framework for Indonesia, with a focus on freight services. To
achieve this, a desktop review of methodologies employed for capacity evaluation has been employed, in order
to identify the most suitable approach. In addition, two cases studies from neighbouring countries have been
reviewed, to highlight measures for rail development that could be employed by Indonesia in the future.

A number of approaches to examine capacity through analytical, simulation and optimisation methods have been
discussed. Following consideration of all the methods, a combination of analytical and simulation methods has
been proposed, incorporating methodologies from Burdett and Kozan (2006) and Yalcinkaya & Bayhan (2011).
Furthermore, several measures from countries with developing environments have been identified, as practical
for implementation in Indonesian rail development.

It is envisaged that the application of these methodologies will assist in determining current capacity- utilised
and unutilised - the results from which can be exercised in future strategic planning.

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