Hydro politics 1

Within Pakistan:
➔ Factors adversely affecting the availability of freshwater:
◆ growing demand –supply gap due to geometrically increasing population
◆ climate change making resources scarce and causing conflict between the states
and also among communities
◆ seasonal deluge and depletion of glaciers
◆ Pakistan’s failure to manage uneven distribution of rainfall
(water management system was exposed during 2010 floods when barrages like Taunsa,
constructed to meet such challenges, failed to stop it)
◆ all of the state’s resources are effectively placed at the disposal of the landed elite
➔ As an agricultural dominated economy with deep ethnic and regional fissures water has
acted as a catalyst to increase the level of tension among the administrative units
➔ per capita availability of water in Pakistan was 5210 cubic meters in 1951,it reduced to
1100 cubic meters in 2006. In 2010 it was 1038 cubic meters and is being projected to be
877 cubic meters by 2020
➔ Other provinces allege that Punjab steals their share of water by diverting the water from
the river Indus and its tributaries to provide benefit to its farmers
➔ Reasons for Punjab’s dominance:
◆ home to Pakistan Army; has always wielded its power directly (during
dictatorships) or indirectly (civilian regimes)
◆ important role economic growth of Pakistan and others are, more or less, fully
dependent upon it
◆ 56 % of total population
◆ bread basket of Pakistan and also industrially developed than other provinces
➔ a deficit of democratic decentralization and regionalism (politicians exploit parochial
and regional sentiment) leads to feud among the provinces on the issue of water sharing
➔ people inhabiting in Gilgit-Baltistan, Potohar and Mirpur have their share of complaints
against the federal government
➔ provinces feels that most of these projects have been designed to benefit the Punjabi
military and civilian establishment
➔ They feel that Punjab will easily divert the water from various rivers to its own benefit at
the cost of others
➔ Kalabagh project (Mianwali district of Punjab bordering Khyber Pakhtunkhwa)
◆ most controversial multi-purpose project
◆ Other then Punjab no other provinces find it beneficial
◆ March 2011: three provincial assemblies-Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and
Balochistan- have passed a resolution against its commissioning
◆ Annual outflow of water into the Arabian Sea is considered a “waste” in Punjab,
which feels that water can be used to irrigate Pakistani infertile lands.
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◆ Punjab wants not just Kalabagh, but also two more large dams on the Indus, at
Bhasha and Skardu/Katzarah. It feels that the Kalabagh site is the most
favourable, compared to the other two
◆ Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry has estimated that the dam would
produce enough energy to obviate the need to import 20 million barrels of oil

India v Pakistan:
1 April 1948: Canal water dispute - India cuts off water to canals in Pakistan
➔ Originated from partition of Punjab in 1947; Partition cut across many rivers and canals
➔ West Pakistan relies on irrigation for agriculture
➔ Most “headworks” (where water is controlled were in india)
➔ India claimed to have control over the headworks as they were in the country
➔ Pakistan insisted that its economy depended on water
➔ Pak called for taking the matter to ICJ; india refused
➔ May 1948: Temporary agreement by India to open canals until Pak agrees to find
alternate supplies of water
➔ 1960: The Indus Waters Treaty resolved this conflict to a great extent
➔ Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent statements regarding blocking the rivers
that flow from India to Pakistan have reignited the conflict; he said he would be bringing
Indus water back to India
➔ India is also constructing the KishanGanga and Ratle Dams on the Jhelum and Chenab
rivers, respectively, and has also completed the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River
◆ IWT allocated the eastern rivers—Ravi, Sutlej, and Bias—to India, while the
western rivers—the Sindh, Chenab, and Jhelum—were allocated to Pakistan
◆ Allowed conditional usage of water of each other’s rivers for domestic reasons,
given that it does not lower the quantity and natural flow of the water in the river
of the other country
➔ Pakistan has serious objections to the Ratle, KishanGanga, and Sawalkot Dams and the
Wullar Barrage because they could impact the flow of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers to a
great extent, which would put in danger Pakistan’s irrigation system and availability of
water for drinking and domestic purposes
➔ Forty-five percent of Pakistan’s labor force is associated with agriculture, which mostly
depends on agriculture
➔ the absence of irrigation could result in crop failure, as well as food and water shortage
➔ UNO (United Nations Watercourses Convention) recognized fundamental “right to
access water” is being infringed upon; also recognized in other declarations ( The
Universal Declaration of Human Rights; The International Covenant on Civil and
Political Rights; The Political Declaration in 2016; Chapter 18 of Agenda 21; The Dublin
Statement in the International Conference on Water and Environment held in Dublin,
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Ireland in January 1992; The Stockholm Declaration approved during the United Nations
Conference on the Human Environment, held in Stockholm in 1972)
➔ What can Pakistan do:
◆ Bilateral Talks: Pakistan can accept India’s offer and try to resolve the conflict
bilaterally
◆ World Bank Mediation: Pakistan can approach the World Bank to resolve the
water conflict with India as the mediator in negotiations, but ultimately lacks any
real enforcement ability; To clarify its position, Pakistan should cooperate with
the World Bank’s special envoy and show its willingness to hold talks with India
◆ Approaching China; Pakistan can request its closest ally, China, to pressure India
to not obstruct water flow in the western rivers. The water that flows into a major
Indian river — the Brahmaputra — comes from the Yarlung Tsangpo river in
China
● China has already blocked one tributary, which flows from China’s Tibet
region and had previously reached the Brahmaputra, for the construction
of a hydroelectricity project
● If China stops all of the major tributaries’ flow of water to India this
would threaten India’s crop production in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh
states, both of which are dependent on these rivers’ for water

Afghanistan v Pakistan
➔ Afghanistan and Pakistan share at least nine rivers but have never signed any agreement
on joint management of the shared water courses
➔ Afghanistan government since 2002 is to reduce poverty by developing the natural
resources of the KRB. The government is actively moving forward with long-term
investment strategies for large-scale management of water resources infrastructures in
order to overcome the constraints of inadequate and unreliable water availability and
frequent drought and provide a basis for sustainable economic growth
➔ The Kabul River is already fueling a “wicked” conflict between Afghanistan and
Pakistan, aggravating a conflagratory relationship between the two South Asian
neighbors
➔ The Afghan government recently announced that they will soon commence work on the
construction of the $236 million Shahtoot Dam on the Kabul River
➔ The project is a component of Afghanistan’s ​India-backed​ ambitious plans of building 12
dams on the Kabul River basin
➔ has agitated the water-stressed Pakistan; Pakistani officials showed deep concerns
regarding the inauspicious effects of the project on the agricultural production and
livelihood of Peshawar residents. Pakistani media have even framed the project as
Afghanistan’s oppressive policy toward Pakistan, masterminded by India
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➔ On the other hand, more than 80 percent of the Afghan population lives in rural areas, the
majority of whom depend on agriculture for livelihood
➔ The Kabul River, on the other hand, is fundamental to meeting the demands for
irrigation, potable water, and power in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
➔ Nonetheless, it is inevitable that Kabul must respect the rights of Pakistan as the lower
riparian of the Kabul River. A “win-win” solution, therefore, requires Afghanistan to
ensure “equitable” and “reasonable” use of the river — under the framework of the 1997
UN Convention on Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses — to cause no
harm to Pakistan. And, in response, Pakistan should contribute to the economic
development of Afghanistan, especially by opening its trade and transit routes for the
Afghan businesses
-author ​Waleed Majidyar is the former Vice President of Afghanistan Investment Support
Agency