Introduction:

After eighteen years of fighting and spending $975 billion, the United States has finally realized
that it cannot win the war in Afghanistan militarily. The United States has been engaged in a
diplomatic effort to end the war in Afghanistan through direct talks with Taliban representatives.
President Trump wrote a letter to Prime Minister Imran Khan seeking his help in bringing the
Taliban to the negotiating table. In response, Pakistan used its influence in bringing the Taliban
to the negotiating table to have a meaningful dialogue with the United States as well the Afghan
government to reach a mutually acceptable solution to the conflict. To assist the US-Taliban
negotiations, Pakistan even released the co-founder of Taliban, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar,
from a prison in Karachi who has since become the chief negotiator of Taliban.

Potential positive outcomes of Afghan peace deal for Pakistan:

By assisting the US in the Afghan peace process, Pakistan expected three major outcomes.
1) Improve relations with the United States:
The Afghan peace process offers Pakistan an opportunity to improve its frosty relations with the
United States. The United States believes that Pakistan’s role is critical to the success of Afghan
peace process. By playing an active role in the peace process, Pakistan can once again become a
close ally of the United States, as it was in the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001
attacks. Being in Washington’s good books may also help Pakistan secure funds from the
International Monetary Fund to avert its balance of payment crisis.
2) Regain influence in Kabul to thwart Indian attempts of encirclement:
A strong Afghanistan led by a Pashtun-dominated government in Kabul without the Taliban is
not in the best interest of Pakistan. Such a government would be more pro-India and anti-
Pakistan. In addition, India’s diplomatic and commercial presence in Afghanistan couple with
United States rhetorical support for it has exacerbated Pakistan’s fear of encirclement by India.
Pakistan views the Taliban as a relatively friendly and reliable anti-India element in Afghanistan.
Therefore, by brokering the rise of the Taliban to power, Pakistan could regain its influence in
Kabul, and avoid encirclement by India.
3) Gain land access to Central Asia:
A peaceful Afghanistan would facilitate Pakistan’s direct land access to Central Asia and its
abundant natural resources. It would allow Pakistan to satisfy its energy requirements as well as
gain access to new markets for export of goods and services.
4) Root out Baloch insurgents and Pakistani Taliban:
With the Taliban in power in Afghanistan, Pakistan could root out Baloch insurgents and
Pakistani Taliban, who use Afghan soil to mount attacks in Pakistan. Denying non-state actors
safe havens in Afghanistan would greatly improve Pakistan’s internal security and mitigate the
security concerns surrounding the multi-billion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
 5) Bridge the trust deficit with the Afghan government:
Pakistan’s efforts in facilitating the Afghan reconciliation process would bridge the trust deficit
with the Afghan government. This can generate significant economic opportunities for Pakistan.
For instance, friendly relations between the two countries would enable them to increase their
bilateral trade volume that has remained very low due to mistrust and suspicion. Afghanistan can
transfer its trade route via Iran’s Chabahar Port to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and even gain
Pakistan’s approval for transit access to Indian markets and vice-versa.
6) Pakistan can use its role in Afghan peace process as leverage:
Pakistan can use its role in Afghan peace process as leverage to press for foreign intervention in
its conflict with India over Kashmir. Given how important and crucial Pakistan’s role is in the
process, Pakistan can use it as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United States to gain
support for the Kashmir cause.
7) Getting out of FATF’s grey list:
Pakistan efforts for building peace in Afghanistan may help get its name out of the grey list of
the Financial Action Task Force and avoid being blacklisted. At the moment, Pakistan is
following the recommendations of FATF and trying hard to introduce institutional reforms in the
country in order to curb terrorism and money laundering. The Afghan peace process offers
Pakistan an opportunity to show FATF as well as the world that it is a peaceful country, which
would go to great lengths to ensure peace and stability in the region.

Fears of Pakistan concerning Afghan peace deal:

Pakistan fears that once the United States withdraw from Afghanistan, non-state actors operating
in Afghanistan, particularly the Islamic State, could destabilize eastern Afghanistan and
Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. Pakistan currently hosts around 1.4 million
Afghan refugees, and cannot accommodate a mass exodus triggered by political instability in
Afghanistan. In addition, Pakistan doesn’t want the international community to abandon
Afghanistan just like it abandoned the country after the withdrawal of Soviet Union. Repeating
the same mistake would produce disastrous consequences for the region.

Which factors could cause the peace process to fall apart?

Despite reassurances of progress by Zalmay Khalilzad, many factors could cause the peace
process to fall apart. Firstly, it is uncertain whether the Afghan government, largely sidelined
from the peace process by the United States, will recognize and abide by a US-Taliban peace
deal. Secondly, the Taliban could walk away from the negotiating table if their demands are not
met, believing that it could push American troops out of Afghanistan without a deal. Thirdly, the
chances of successful peace talks are complicated by the Taliban’s refusal to engage in intra-
Afghan dialogue with what they call an ‘illegitimate’ American-backed government in Kabul.
Even if the Taliban agree to engage in a dialogue with Afghan government, there is a possibility
that the two may be unable to broker a power-sharing agreement, leaving Afghanistan instable.
One thing is clear that irrespective of whether the US-Taliban peace talks are successful, there is
a possibility that the conflict in Afghanistan may not end soon.

Imran-Trump meeting:
Imran Khan’s meeting with Donald Trump on July 22 marked a turnaround in US-Pakistan
relations. The Imran-Trump meeting held great symbolic value for Pakistan, and offered both
sides an opportunity to present their positions in order to move past their problems and foster a
better working relationship. The visit was a departure from the coldness between Pakistan and
the United States, especially after President Trump suspended millions of dollars in military aid
to Pakistan and accused the country of harboring militants the United States was fighting in
Afghanistan. The main focus of the meeting was the Afghan peace process and how Pakistan can
help extricate the United States from the war in Afghanistan. The Kashmir issue received
unprecedented attention from President Trump, and he even offered to mediate the Kashmir
dispute between India and Pakistan. The fact that Kashmir stole the limelight and was recognized
as the primary cause of tension between Pakistan and India was a diplomatic win for Pakistan.

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The fundamental objective of American efforts in Afghanistan was to prevent any further attacks
on the United States by terrorists enjoying safe haven or support in Afghanistan.
The United States has been engaged in a diplomatic effort to end the war in Afghanistan through
direct talks with Taliban representatives without any involvement of Afghan government. This
represents a reversal of US policy, which supported an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace
process. This has led to some Afghans to worry that the United States would prioritize a military
withdrawal over a complex political settlement that preserves some of the social, political and
humanitarian gains made since 2001. They fear that a full-scale America withdrawal would lead
to the collapse of the Afghan government and the reestablishment of Taliban control.
President Trump has expressed his intention to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan. Trump
has gradually been reducing the number of US troops in the country and now only around 14,000
American troops remain in Afghanistan.
Since 2015, the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan, known as Resolute Support Mission, has
focused on training, advising, and assisting Afghan government forces.
Pakistan prefers a weak and destabilized Afghanistan to a strong, unified Afghanistan,
particularly one led by a Pashtun-dominated government in Kabul. India’s diplomatic and
commercial presence in Afghanistan couple with United States rhetorical support for it has
exacerbated Pakistan’s fear of encirclement by India. Pakistan’s security establishment, fearful
of encirclement by India, views the Afghan Taliban as a relatively friendly and reliable anti-India
element in Afghanistan.
Indian interest in Afghanistan stems largely from India’s regional rivalry with Pakistan, which
impedes India’s political and trade relations with Central Asia.
The US-Taliban peace talks focus on four elements: withdrawal of foreign forces, counter-
terrorism assurances, intra-Afghan dialogue and comprehensive ceasefire.
Pakistan’s efforts in facilitating the Afghan reconciliation process will bridge the trust deficit
with the Afghan government. There are two major irritants in Pak-Afghan ties. First is Pakistan’s
diplomatic support of the Taliban whom the Afghan army is fighting. Second is Pakistan’s
refusal to grant transit access to Indian goods destined for Afghan markets. In the last couple of
years, Pakistan witnessed a sharp decline in trade with Afghanistan. On many occasions, the
Afghan government threatened to close down transit routes for Pakistani goods destined for
Central Asian markets if Pakistan did not allow transit access to Indian goods destined for
Afghanistan. The Afghan government shifted over 70 percent of its trade from Pakistan to Iran,
India and China. Pakistan lost more than a 50 percent share in the Afghan market.
Staying true to his reputation for unpredictability, US President Donald Trump suddenly called
off the Afghanistan peace negotiations with the Taliban. Trump cited continued Taliban attacks
on US personnel as the reason for canceling negotiations.
For the United States, relations with Pakistan are always seen through the lens of Afghanistan.
For Americans, the road to Afghan peace process passes through Pakistan. The reason why the
United States has not abandoned Pakistan despite accusing it of providing safe havens to Taliban
is that it needs Pakistan’s help to extricate it from Afghanistan.
The Afghan reconciliation process gives Washington and Islamabad an opportunity to improve
their relationships.
The current arrangement may provide a face-saving exit to the United States.