Transportation & Logistics

2Q19 Review & 3Q19 Outlook

June 2019
Adrian Karim
adrian.karim@sam.co.id
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 Quarterly Perspective

Transportation & Logistics 2Q19e 3Q19e 4Q19e FY2019

1. E-commerce 1. E-commerce 1. E-commerce
1. E-commerce development
development development development
2. Easing ride hailing 2. Easing ride hailing 2. Easing ride hailing 2. Easing ride hailing
competition competition competition competition
Catalysts
3. Lebaran effect 4. ASSA possible rights issue

4. ASSA possible rights

issue

1. Execution risks 1. Execution risks 1. Execution risks 1. Execution risks

2. Lack of technology and
capital
3. Continued competition
Risks in ride hailing and courier
services
2. Lack of technology 2. Lack of technology and 2. Lack of technology and
and capital capital capital
3. Continued
3. Continued competition in 3. Continued competition
competition in ride
ride hailing and courier in ride hailing and courier
hailing and courier
services services
services
4. Weak operations 4. Weak operations 4. Weak operations

Rating OVERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT

Top picks:
ASSA IJ, MMLP IJ ASSA IJ, MMLP IJ ASSA IJ, MMLP IJ ASSA IJ, MMLP IJ
Price performance
Price performance
Current valuation: P/E
 Our e-commerce market

Source: Katadata, Statista

 Our e-commerce market

Source: Google Indonesia

 Increasing reliance on smartphone

Source: Google Indonesia

Ample room on retail products
 Current e-commerce player

Indonesian e-commerce visitors, 1Q19 (monthly)

Tokopedia 137,200,900

Bukalapak 115,256,600

Shopee 74,995,300

Lazada 52,044,500

Blibli 32,597,200

JD ID 10,656,900

Orami 8,380,600

Sociolla 4,838,300

Zalora 4,343,000

Bhinneka 3,446,500

- 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000

Source: iPrice
A very interesting market

• A very ample room for parcel growth

in Indonesia, supported by improving
infrastructure
• For Java, we do believe that land
transportation would be the
backbone for express freight, as the
cost / kg is very affordable compared
to air freight (Rp700 – 1,000/kg vs
Rp16,000 for Jakarta-Surabaya route)

Source: McKinsey
Even globally, postal service tilted more and more to parcels

Source: IPC
With ample room for growth

• Increasing parcel
share to total post /
express market
• We do believe that
since Pos Indonesia
tends to be not agile
enough, this ratio
would be much
accelerated in
Indonesia

Source: McKinsey
Continuous improvement

Source: McKinsey
Pushing investment globally for last-mile delivery

Source: IPC
As customers demand a more rapid and affordable service

Source:
McKinsey,
Deloitte
Automation and other advancing technologies

Source: McKinsey,
Deloitte, Robeco
For e-commerce players, owning logistic service is important

• Ensuring service level is honoured and well-controlled

• Supporting online store to manage their inventories and improving delivery time

Source: IPC, McKinsey

 Indonesia courier overview

Provider Parcel / day

JNE 1 million

J&T 700 – 800 thousand

SAPX 100 thousand

ASSA target 2 million in 2023

Source: ASSA, SAPX

 Indonesia courier overview

• J&T culture
basically is Chinese
company culture
(long working
hours)
• Possible
consolidation due
to same investors
and different SLA

Source: Trimegah
 ASSA: Big idea, burning money

Targeting 50 –
60% contribution
to ASSA books

Source: ASSA
 ASSA: Big idea, burning money

Targeting 50 –
60% contribution
to ASSA books

Source: Anteraja
 How ASSA can disrupt

Targeting 50 –
60% contribution
to ASSA books

Source: ASSA
 How ASSA can disrupt

Possible cost
saving due to
technology

Source: McKinsey
 ASSA – Anteraja: Supported by SF Express

Possible cost
saving due to
technology

Source: SF
 ASSA – Anteraja: Very aggressive target

Source: Trimegah
 ASSA – Anteraja: Very aggressive target

Source: Trimegah
 ASSA: Private placement in 4Q19

Source: Bloomberg

• Documents are already submitted, currently focusing on valuation

• International Finance Corporation (IFC, World Bank’s private arm) will be the investor
• From Trimegah’s information, valuation will be at 40% above minimum price (25-day average, around
Rp1100 – 1200 (below previous estimate at Rp1300 – 1400), implying 7 – 8,5 EBITDA multiple
 MMLP: Good portfolio

Source: MMLP
 MMLP: Good growth

Source: MMLP
 MMLP: Not well understood

Source: MMLP
 SAPX: competing with air freight

Source: IMAS IMJS

 SAPX: interesting growth, but too small

Source: Kontan,
Bloomberg
 SAPX: Manual operation

Source: IMAS IMJS

CONTACT US

PT SAMUEL ASET MANAJEMEN

Menara Imperium, Lobby GF
Jl. H.R. Rasuna Said Kav. 1 Setia Budi
Jakarta Selatan 12980 Indonesia

SAM Customer Service

Telp. +62-21-28548800
Fax. +62-21-83703278
Email: marketing@sam.co.id
www.sam.co.id

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TERIMA KASIH

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