2,800,000

2,400,000

2,000,000

1,600,000

1,200,000

800,000

400,000

0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

PDB OPENNET

Dependent Variable: PDB

Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/04/19 Time: 07:43
Sample: 1981 2014
Included observations: 34

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 144222.8 131012.3 1.100834 0.2792

OPENNET 17191848 1673301. 10.27421 0.0000

R-squared 0.767373 Mean dependent var 1380013.

Adjusted R-squared 0.760104 S.D. dependent var 618229.9
S.E. of regression 302804.1 Akaike info criterion 28.13658
Sum squared resid 2.93E+12 Schwarz criterion 28.22637
Log likelihood -476.3219 Hannan-Quinn criter. 28.16720
F-statistic 105.5595 Durbin-Watson stat 0.419460
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
 3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000
600,000
400,000 1,000,000
200,000
500,000
0
-200,000
-400,000
-600,000
-800,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Residual Actual Fitted

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic 15.45051 Prob. F(2,30) 0.0000

Obs*R-squared 17.25151 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0002

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/04/19 Time: 07:45
Sample: 1981 2014
Included observations: 34
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 48297.81 97527.60 0.495222 0.6241

OPENNET -571840.5 1248859. -0.457890 0.6503
RESID(-1) 0.727843 0.191463 3.801481 0.0007
RESID(-2) 0.002123 0.195328 0.010869 0.9914

R-squared 0.507397 Mean dependent var 3.08E-11

Adjusted R-squared 0.458137 S.D. dependent var 298180.9
S.E. of regression 219494.9 Akaike info criterion 27.54618
Sum squared resid 1.45E+12 Schwarz criterion 27.72575
Log likelihood -464.2850 Hannan-Quinn criter. 27.60742
F-statistic 10.30034 Durbin-Watson stat 1.548614
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000080
Dependent Variable: PDB
Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) - Normal distribution
Date: 12/04/19 Time: 07:49
Sample: 1981 2014
Included observations: 34
Convergence achieved after 172 iterations
Presample variance: backcast (parameter = 0.7)
GARCH = C(3) + C(4)*RESID(-1)^2

Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.

C 274831.7 151763.4 1.810922 0.0702

OPENNET 16350505 1569964. 10.41457 0.0000

Variance Equation

C 5.67E+10 3.68E+10 1.540861 0.1234

RESID(-1)^2 0.402251 0.511168 0.786924 0.4313

R-squared 0.752277 Mean dependent var 1380013.

Adjusted R-squared 0.744536 S.D. dependent var 618229.9
S.E. of regression 312474.8 Akaike info criterion 27.89837
Sum squared resid 3.12E+12 Schwarz criterion 28.07795
Log likelihood -470.2724 Hannan-Quinn criter. 27.95961
Durbin-Watson stat 0.358270

Dependent Variable: PDB

Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) - Normal distribution
Date: 12/04/19 Time: 08:01
Sample: 1981 2014
Included observations: 34
Convergence achieved after 172 iterations
Bollerslev-Wooldridge robust standard errors & covariance
Presample variance: backcast (parameter = 0.7)
GARCH = C(3) + C(4)*RESID(-1)^2

Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.

C 274831.7 93168.26 2.949843 0.0032

OPENNET 16350505 1363287. 11.99345 0.0000

Variance Equation

C 5.67E+10 1.07E+10 5.309438 0.0000

RESID(-1)^2 0.402251 0.183204 2.195642 0.0281

R-squared 0.752277 Mean dependent var 1380013.

Adjusted R-squared 0.744536 S.D. dependent var 618229.9
S.E. of regression 312474.8 Akaike info criterion 27.89837
Sum squared resid 3.12E+12 Schwarz criterion 28.07795
Log likelihood -470.2724 Hannan-Quinn criter. 27.95961
Durbin-Watson stat 0.358270
4,000,000
Forecast: PDBF
Actual: PDB
3,000,000 Forecast sample: 1981 2014
Included observations: 34
Root Mean Squared Error 303145.1
2,000,000 Mean Absolute Error 225633.8
Mean Abs. Percent Error 24.90524
Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.099561
1,000,000 Bias Proportion 0.053521
Variance Proportion 0.112408
Covariance Proportion 0.834071
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

PDBF ± 2 S.E.

3.0E+11

2.5E+11

2.0E+11

1.5E+11

1.0E+11

5.0E+10
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Forecast of Variance