MASON-DIXON® FLORIDA POLL

DECEMBER 2019 – PART 1

© Copyright 2019, Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategic Consulting, Inc.

Tracking public opinion in Florida since 1984

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy –December 2019 Florida Poll
 50% OF FLORIDA VOTERS DISAPPROVE OF TRUMP PERFORMANCE
50% OPPOSE IMPEACHMENT & REMOVAL

Florida voters remain almost equally divided over President Donald Trump – but
there is a slight lag between those who don’t like the job he is doing and those
who want to impeach and remove him from office. Statewide, 50% of voters
disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, but only 46% support
impeachment. On the flip side, only 47% approve of the way Trump is doing his
job, but 50% oppose impeachment and removal.

TRUMP JOB RATING

3%

APPROVE
47%
DISAPPROVE
50% NOT SURE

The partisan divide is extreme, with 91% of Democrats disapproving of Trump

and supporting impeachment. On the Republican side, 91% approve of Trump
and 93% oppose impeachment. Independent voters, however, are conflicted,
with a 51% majority disapproving of the president’s performance in office and at
the same time a 53% majority are opposed to removing him.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy –December 2019 Florida Poll
 TRUMP IMPEACHMENT
4%

SUPPORT
46%
OPPOSE
50% NOT SURE

Voter views on impeachment closely mirror the state’s 2016 presidential vote
and Trump’s job rating is unchanged over the past year. Despite all the action
swirling around them, voter views of Trump are not changing in any direction.
Right now, it does not look like 2020 is going to be any different than 2016. The
state’s electoral votes appear to be in the hands of a small number of
unaffiliated voters.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy –December 2019 Florida Poll
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as president?

APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

STATE 47% 50% 3%

REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

North Florida 57% 41% 2%

Central Florida 52% 43% 5%
Tampa Bay 47% 48% 5%
Southwest Florida 56% 43% 1%
Southeast Florida 32% 66% 2%

SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Men 53% 43% 4%

Women 41% 56% 3%

AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

18-34 33% 65% 2%

35-49 43% 55% 2%
50-64 53% 44% 3%
65+ 53% 43% 4%

RACE/ETHNICITY APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

White 57% 40% 3%

Black 8% 91% 1%
Hispanic 42% 53% 5%

PARTY REGISTRATION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Democrat 5% 91% 4%
Republican 91% 7% 2%
Independent 46% 51% 3%

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy –December 2019 Florida Poll
QUESTION: Do you support or oppose impeaching President Donald Trump and removing him
from office?

SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

STATE 46% 50% 4%

REGION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

North Florida 37% 61% 2%

Central Florida 43% 54% 3%
Tampa Bay 47% 48% 5%
Southwest Florida 41% 55% 4%
Southeast Florida 56% 38% 6%

SEX SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

Men 38% 57% 5%

Women 53% 44% 3%

AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

18-34 57% 38% 5%

35-49 50% 47% 3%
50-64 40% 56% 4%
65+ 43% 53% 4%

RACE/ETHNICITY SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

White 38% 59% 3%

Black 81% 12% 7%
Hispanic 51% 44% 5%

PARTY REGISTRATION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

Democrat 91% 6% 3%
Republican 4% 93% 3%
Independent 41% 53% 6%

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy –December 2019 Florida Poll
 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville,
Florida from December 11 through December 16, 2019. A total of 625
registered Florida voters were interviewed live by telephone statewide.

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Florida voter

registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas
were assigned to reflect voter registration by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is

no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent
probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were
surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or
age grouping.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy –December 2019 Florida Poll
 DEMOGRAPHICS

PARTY REGISTRATION:

Democrat 231 (37%)

Republican 225 (36%)
Independent or Other 169 (27%)

AGE:
18-34 105 (17%)
35-49 157 (25%)
50-64 171 (27%)
65+ 187 (30%)
Refused 5 (1%)

RACE/ETHNICITY:
White/Caucasian 406 (65%)
Black/African American 90 (14%)
Hispanic or Cuban 111 (18%)
Other 11 (2%)
Refused 7 (1%)

SEX:
Male 297 (48%)
Female 328 (52%)

REGION:
North Florida 135 (22%)
Central Florida 120 (19%)
Tampa Bay 115 (18%)
Southwest Florida 75 (12%)
Southeast Florida 180 (29%)

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy –December 2019 Florida Poll
 FLORIDA POLL REGIONS

NORTH FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Bay,

Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Liberty, Walton, Washington, Holmes, Jackson,
Gadsden, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor,
Wakulla, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Putnam, St, Johns,
Flagler, Union, Alachua, Dixie, Gilchrist and Levy counties.

CENTRAL FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Brevard, Lake, Marion, Orange,

Osceola, Seminole, Citrus, Sumter, Volusia, and Indian River counties.

TAMPA BAY: Voters interviewed in Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas and

Polk counties.

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry,

Highlands, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties.

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin,

Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy –December 2019 Florida Poll