California

Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
November 2019
Sales
 Sales remained above 400k
for 5th consecutive month
California, November 2019 Sales: 402,880 Units, -1.9% YTD, 5.6% YTY
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
3
 California home sales continue to improve

25% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)

20%
15%
10%
5% 5.6%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
4
 Bay Area sales growth dipped again
after two months of slight uptick
30% Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%
-4.8%
-10%

-20%

-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
5
 So. California sales grew
at slower pace in November
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%
30%
20%
YoY % chg.

10%
4.6%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
6
 Central Valley sales growth softened but
remained positive
30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0% 0.6%

-10%

-20%

-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
7
 Sales down at the bottom end of the market

November 2019 Share by Price Segment

(YTY% Chg.) 0% 10% 20% 30%

15% 10.6% $0 - $299k 12.7%

10% 6.3% 7.8% 7.7%
3.1% $300 - $399k
5% 1.4% 16.0%
0%
$400 - $499k 13.8%
-5%
-10% $500 - $749k 25.3%
-15%
-20% -14.9% $750 - $999k 11.5%
$1,000 - $1,999k 12.8%
$2,000k+ 3.8%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
8
 High-end home sales showing improvement
in recent months
25% $0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k
20% $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
15%
YTY % Chg. in Sales

10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%

SERIES: Percent Change in Sales page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
9
Sales by Region
November 2019 November 2019 Home Sales
Home Sales by Region Growth by Region
12.0% 9.5%
Other Counties 10.0%
Central 8% 8.0%
Coast 6.0% 4.6%
4.0%
4% 2.0% 0.6% 1.0%
Central
Valley 0.0%
-2.0%
22% -4.0%
-6.0% -4.8%
S.F. Bay
Southern Area
California 18%
48%

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
10
 Pending sales continued to rise since
mid-2019
20%
15.2%
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%

SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
11
Is it a good time to buy or sell?

Do you think it’s a good time to buy a Do you think it’s a good time to sell a
home in California? home in California?
N=300 N=300

51%
46% 47%

25% 24%24%

SERIES: 2018/2019 Google Consumer Poll page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
12
Price
 Median price fell below 600k for 1st time in 7
months, but had largest gain in 16 months
California, November 2019: $589,770, -2.6% MTM, 6.4% YTY

$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
14
 Condo/Townhome median price growth
picked up – the strongest gain in 13 months
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
 Condo/Townhome median price grew
from both last month and the same month last year
California, November 2018: $458,000, November 2019: $485,110
$600,000

$500,000
Median Price

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Mar-06

May-07
Dec-07

Mar-13

May-14
Dec-14
Jan-05

Oct-06

Jul-08

Jan-12

Oct-13

Jul-15

Jan-19
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11

Apr-17
Nov-17
Jun-18
Aug-05

Feb-09
Sep-09

Aug-12

Feb-16
Sep-16

Aug-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
 Price/Square Foot growth rate remained soft

November 2019: $288, -0.3% MTM, 2.1% YTY

$400
$350
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
17
 Price/Square Foot: Condo/Townhome vs. SFH

Diff. in Price/Sq. Ft. SFH Condo/Townhome

$450
$402
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$400
$350
$300 $288
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
18
 Sales price-to-list Price ratio up from last year

November 2019: 98.4%, -0.1% MTM, 0.6% YTY

100%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

98%

96%

94%

92%

90%
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
Price growth in all percentiles

Year-over-Year Price Growth

9%
8% 7.7%
7%
6% 5.6%
5.0%
5%
4% 3.6%
3.1%
3% 2.4%
2% 1.7%
1% 0.6%
0%
-1% -0.6%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
 Top-end had first yearly price gain in 2019

12% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100

10%
8%
6%
YTY% Chg. in Price

4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

SERIES: Percent Change in Price page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
21
 Mortgage payment declined for 9 consecutive
months, despite higher median price
California Median Price vs.
30 Yr. FRM
6% Mortgage Payment
20%
5% 4.87%
15%
4% 3.70% 10%
6.4%

YTY% Chg.
5%
3%
0%
2% -5% -7.4%
-10%
1%

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
0%
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19 Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
22
 Mortgage payment declined for 9 consecutive
months, despite higher median price
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
20%
15%
YTY% Chg.

10%
5%
0%
-5%
-7.40%
-10%
Mar-16
May-16

Mar-17
May-17

Mar-18
May-18

Mar-19
May-19
Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19
Sep-16
Nov-16

Sep-17
Nov-17

Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
23
 Mortgage payment declined from last month
and last year
California, November 2018: $2,345, November 2019: $2,172
$3,000

$2,500
Mortgage Payment

$2,000

$1,500

$1,000

$500

$0

SERIES: Mortgage Payment of Existing SFH page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
24
Monthly mortgage: more affordable

Region Nov 2019 Nov 2018 % CHG

CA SFH $2,172 $2,345 -7.4%

Los Angeles
$2,025 $2,166 -6.5%
Metropolitan Area

Central Coast $2,560 $2,846 -10.1%

Central Valley $1,252 $1,354 -7.5%

Inland Empire $1,396 $1,539 -9.3%

S.F. Bay Area $3,406 $3,829 -11.1%

SERIES: Monthly mortgage payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
25
 Most counties pay lower mortgage payments
Nov 2019: chg. in mortgage payment (yty%)
40%
27.6%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10% -7.4%
-20%
-30%
-40% -33.3%

SERIES: Change in mortgage payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
26
 Growth of list price vs. sales price

40%
Listing Price Sales Price
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
27
Down payment: remain elevated for most areas

Region Nov 2019 Nov 2018 % CHG

CA SFH $117,954 $110,848 6.4%

Los Angeles
$110,000 $102,400 7.4%
Metropolitan Area

Central Coast $139,000 $134,500 3.3%

Central Valley $68,000 $64,000 6.3%

Inland Empire $75,800 $72,724 4.2%

S.F. Bay Area $185,000 $181,000 2.2%

SERIES: Down payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
28
 Many counties require higher down payments
Nov 2019: chg. in down payment (yty $)
$40,000 $35,300
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000 $7,106
$0
-$10,000
-$20,000
-$30,000
-$40,000 -$33,800

SERIES: Change in mortgage payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
29
 Market Velocity

50.0%

-50.0%
100.0%
150.0%

-150.0%
-100.0%
0.0%
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Price Growth

Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Market Velocity (12 month trailing average)

Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
California Market Velocity and Price Growth

Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Market Velocity

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%

-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%

30

Existing SFR Median Price

Growth
page
 Inventory &
Active Listings
 Unsold Inventory Index declined
as a result of more sales and fewer listings
18.0
16.0 November 2018: 3.7 Months; November 2019: 3.1 Months
14.0
Months of Supply

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
32
 Supply improved slightly only
at the upper end of the market
November 2019

10% Active Listing

3.2%
YTY % Change

0%
-10%
-20% -13.5%

-30% -23.8% -23.0% -22.5%

-25.9%
-30.6%
-40%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
33
 Unsold Inventory low in all Regions

9.0
8.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley
7.0
Months of Supply

6.0
5.0
4.0
3.2
3.0 2.8
2.0 2.1
1.0
0.0
Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
34
 Inventory Index Highest at the top end

California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment

12
9.8 10.6
Months of Supply

10
8
6 5.5
4.2 4.43.9 4.7 3.7 3.1
3.53.3 3.42.8 3.6 3.83.2 3.4
4 2.6 3.02.6
2
0

Nov-18 Nov-19

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
35
 Active listings dropped by double-digits;
largest yearly decline in over 61/2 years
Year-over-Year % Chg
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-22.5%
-30%
Mar-15
May-15

Mar-16
May-16

Mar-17
May-17

Mar-18
May-18

Mar-19
May-19
Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19
Sep-15
Nov-15

Sep-16
Nov-16

Sep-17
Nov-17

Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
36
 Housing supply tightened up in all regions

Nov-18 Nov-19
35,000
30,033
30,000
Active Listings

25,000
21,496
20,000
15,000
11,119
10,000 8,659
6,288 4,747
5,000 2,542 2,159
0
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
37
 All regions dropped by double-digits in supply

November 2019
Sales Active Listings

10%
4.6%
0.6% 1.0%
Year-to-Year % Chg

0%
-4.8%
-10%

-20% -15.1%
-22.1%
-30% -24.5%
-28.4%
-40%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area
SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
38
Active listings tightened up

California Active Listings by Month

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

2018 2019

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
39
Market Competitiveness
 Time on market down leveling up

80 California, November 2019: 25.0 Days

70
Days on Market

60
50
40
30 25.0
20
10
0
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-19
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
41
Median time on market up in top percentiles

Median Time on Market

40
32
30 28 28 28
Days on Market

27 26 26 27 27
24 24 24 2526
23 2324 24
2122
20

10

0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Nov-18 Nov-19

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
42
 Sales-to-list price ratio down at top percentile

California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile

100.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
99.5% 99.4%
99.1% 99.2%
98.9% 99.0%
99.0%
98.5%
98.0% 97.8%
97.5%
97.0%
96.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Nov-18 Nov-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
43
 Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties

California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

15%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%
Dec-11
May-12

Mar-13

Dec-16
May-17

Mar-18
Jan-09

Jul-11

Oct-12

Jan-14

Jul-16

Oct-17

Jan-19
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11

Aug-13

Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Feb-16

Aug-18

Jun-19
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
44
 Reduced-Price Listings

Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 39.2%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.4%

50% 0%
45% -1%
40% -2%
35% -3%
30% -4%
25% -5%
20% -6%
15% -7%
10% -8%
5% -9%
0% -10%
1/1/2010
5/1/2010
9/1/2010
1/1/2011
5/1/2011
9/1/2011
1/1/2012
5/1/2012
9/1/2012
1/1/2013
5/1/2013
9/1/2013
1/1/2014
5/1/2014
9/1/2014
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
5/1/2019
9/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
45
 Growth in Reduced-Price Listings

Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: -3.2%

Growth in Median Reduction Amount: 0.0%
8% 0.05%
6% 0.00%
4% -0.05%
-0.10%
2%
-0.15%
0% -0.20%
-2% -0.25%
-4% -0.30%
11/1/2015

11/1/2016

11/1/2017

11/1/2018

11/1/2019
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015

1/1/2016
3/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016

1/1/2017
3/1/2017
5/1/2017
7/1/2017
9/1/2017

1/1/2018
3/1/2018
5/1/2018
7/1/2018
9/1/2018

1/1/2019
3/1/2019
5/1/2019
7/1/2019
9/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
46
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