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ABSTRACT
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is widely used by hydrologists for appraisal of probable maximum flood (PMF) used
for soil and water conservation structures, and design of dam spillways. The estimation of design storm for example depends
on availability of rainfall quantities and their durations. Daily maximum multiannual series are one of the main inputs for
design streamflow calculation. The study generated annual series of Daily maximum rainfall for fourty four stations by using
statical approach such as Normal distribution, Log-Normal Distribution, Pearson type III distribution and Gumbel’s
Distribution .Results reveals that among the different statical approaches Log-Normal distribution fits the best compared to
others. Isohyetal Maps of study area at different frequency are produced by using GIS tools, the maximum intensity varies
from 2.5 mm/hr to 628 mm/hr.
Key words: Climate change, Daily Maximum Rainfall, Gumbel’s distribution, Isopluvial Maps, Log-Normal Distribution,
Maximum intensity, PMP, Rainfall Duration.
1 INTRODUCTION
Water scarcity appears to be a future problem for Karnataka. This problem is an existential threat which can potentially hurt
economic growth as well as agricultural growth. Water is expensive and inexpensive depending on its availability according
to law of demand and supply. Rainfall as an environmental phenomenon is of immense importance to mankind. Hence
the significance of studies to understand the rainfall process cannot be overemphasized. Floods, droughts, rainstorms,
and high winds are extreme environmental events which have severe consequences on human society. Planning for these
weather-related emergencies, design of engineering structures, reservoir management, pollution control, and insurance
risk calculations, all rely on knowledge of the frequency of these extreme events The total rainfall and its intensity for a
certain period of time are variable from year to another. The variation for depth of rainfall and its intensity depend
on the climate type and the length of the studied period. It can be noted in arid and semi-arid areas, there is a significant
change in the value of rain from time to another. Due to the significant variation in rainfall and its intensity in a
consider time, the design and construction of storm water drainage systems and flood control systems are not depend
only on the average of long-term rainfall records but on particular depths of precipitation that can be predicted for a
certain probability or return period. These depths of rainfall can only be determined through a comprehensive analysis of
a long time series of historical rainfall data. The historical rainfall data series are distinguished by medium and standard
deviation, this information cannot be randomly used to predict the rainfall depths that can be estimated with a
specific probability or return period for design and management of storm water drainage. Application of this
technique to a data set can lead to misguiding results where the actual properties of the distribution are
neglected. To avoid mistake, it is necessary to verify the integrity of the assumed distribution before
estimating the design depths of the rainfall. There is a need for information of the extreme amounts of rainfall for
various durations in the design of hydraulic structures and control storm runoff, such as dams and barriers, and
conveyance structures etc.
B Methodology
C Probability distribution
In this study the maximum rainfall intensity for various return periods were estimated using different theoretical distribution
functions. Normal, Two-Parameter Lognormal, Pearson Type III, Extreme Value Type I (Gumbel) etc were used for
probability distribution of the daily rainfall data.
1 1 𝑥−µ 2
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝜎√2𝜋 exp [− 2 ( ) ] (𝜎 > 0) (Equation II)
𝜎
Where exp is the exponential function with base e = 2.718. µ is the mean and σ the standard deviation. 1/ (σ√ (2π)) is a
constant factor that makes the area under the curve of f(x) from -∞ to ∞ equal to 1.
𝑥
1 (ln 𝑥−𝑎)2
𝐹(𝑥) = ∫ 𝑥𝑏√2𝜋
exp {− 2𝑏2
} ⅆ𝑥; 𝑂<𝑥<∞ (Equation III)
0
2.C.3 Gumbel distribution
Gumbel distribution is a statistical method often used for predicting extreme hydrological event such as floods. The equation
for fitting the Gumbel distribution to observed series of flood flow at different return periods T is
−
𝑥𝑇 = 𝑥 + 𝑘𝜎𝑥 (Equation IV)
−
Where xT denotes the magnitude of the T-year flood event, K is the frequency factor,𝑥= mean and 𝜎𝑥 = standard deviation of
the variate X.
√6(0.5772+InI𝑛 (𝑇∕(𝑇−1))
𝐾 = −[ ] (Equation V)
𝜋
D Chi-Square Test
To identify a specific theoretical distribution for the available data it is important to do a test. The aim of the test is to find
how good a fit is between the observed and the predicted data. Chi-square is one of the most widely used tests to find the best
fit theoretical distribution of any specific dataset which is represented by Equation 2.17.
𝑛
χ2 = ∑𝑖=1(𝑂𝑖 − 𝐸𝑖 )2 ∕ 𝐸𝑖 (Equation VII)
where, Oi and Ei represent the observed and expected frequencies respectively.
All the time series of the stations gives best fit using log normal distribution hence rainfall Intensities of all the station obtained
by log-normal distributions is considered. Considering lower return periods might not be appropriate considering the fact that,
generally the life of a structure is more than 25 years. The short durations of 5, 10, 15, 30, 60. 120, 720 and 1440 minutes
isopluvial maps were generated as the intensity decreases with the increase in duration for return period of 25years,
50years,75years and 100years as shown in Tables 5 to Table 8 and IDW analysis was done and the maps were obtained as
shown in figure 4 .
1
Year Rainfall t 3
(mm) Pt = P24 ( ) in mm where, time t is in hours
24
Duration in minutes 5 10 15 30 60 120 720 1440
1995 160.000 24.228 30.526 34.943 44.026 55.469 69.886 126.992 160.000
1996 110.200 16.687 21.025 24.067 30.323 38.204 48.134 87.466 110.200
1997 60.400 9.146 11.523 13.191 16.620 20.940 26.382 47.940 60.400
1998 60.800 9.207 11.600 13.278 16.730 21.078 26.557 48.257 60.800
1999 100.400 15.203 19.155 21.927 27.626 34.807 43.854 79.688 100.400
2000 65.000 9.843 12.401 14.196 17.885 22.534 28.391 51.591 65.000
2001 78.600 11.902 14.996 17.166 21.628 27.249 34.332 62.385 78.600
2002 60.000 9.086 11.447 13.104 16.510 20.801 26.207 47.622 60.000
2003 90.200 13.659 17.209 19.699 24.819 31.271 39.398 71.592 90.200
2004 58.300 8.828 11.123 12.732 16.042 20.211 25.465 46.273 58.300
2005 140.000 21.200 26.710 30.575 38.522 48.535 61.151 111.118 140.000
2006 84.000 12.720 16.026 18.345 23.113 29.121 36.690 66.671 84.000
2007 97.800 14.810 18.659 21.359 26.911 33.905 42.718 77.624 97.800
2008 74.600 11.296 14.233 16.292 20.527 25.862 32.585 59.210 74.600
2009 79.800 12.084 15.225 17.428 21.958 27.665 34.856 63.337 79.800
2010 90.000 13.628 17.171 19.656 24.764 31.201 39.311 71.433 90.000
2011 83.000 12.568 15.835 18.127 22.838 28.774 36.254 65.877 83.000
2012 93.400 14.143 17.819 20.398 25.700 32.380 40.796 74.132 93.400
2013 60.000 9.086 11.447 13.104 16.510 20.801 26.207 47.622 60.000
2014 94.200 14.264 17.972 20.573 25.920 32.657 41.146 74.767 94.200
2015 57.600 8.722 10.989 12.580 15.849 19.969 25.159 45.717 57.600
2016 46.400 7.026 8.852 10.134 12.767 16.086 20.267 36.828 46.400
1
Year Rainfall t 3
(mm) Pt = P24 ( ) in mm where, time t is in hours
24
Duration in minutes 5 10 15 30 60 120 720 1440
1995 34.000 5.149 6.487 7.425 9.355 11.787 14.851 26.986 34.000
1996 60.000 9.086 11.447 13.104 16.510 20.801 26.207 47.622 60.000
1997 61.000 9.237 11.638 13.322 16.785 21.148 26.644 48.416 61.000
1998 95.000 14.386 18.125 20.748 26.140 32.935 41.495 75.402 95.000
1999 89.000 13.477 16.980 19.437 24.489 30.855 38.874 70.639 89.000
2000 67.800 10.267 12.935 14.807 18.656 23.505 29.614 53.813 67.800
2001 56.100 8.495 10.703 12.252 15.437 19.449 24.504 44.527 56.100
2002 67.000 10.146 12.783 14.632 18.436 23.228 29.265 53.178 67.000
2003 78.000 11.811 14.881 17.035 21.463 27.041 34.070 61.909 78.000
2004 44.000 6.663 8.395 9.609 12.107 15.254 19.219 34.923 44.000
2005 42.200 6.390 8.051 9.216 11.612 14.630 18.433 33.494 42.200
2006 54.800 8.298 10.455 11.968 15.079 18.998 23.936 43.495 54.800
2007 51.100 7.738 9.749 11.160 14.061 17.715 22.320 40.558 51.100
2008 110.400 16.717 21.063 24.111 30.378 38.274 48.222 87.625 110.400
2009 72.400 10.963 13.813 15.812 19.922 25.100 31.624 57.464 72.400
2010 103.000 15.597 19.651 22.495 28.342 35.708 44.989 81.751 103.000
2011 56.200 8.510 10.722 12.274 15.464 19.483 24.548 44.606 56.200
2012 60.800 9.207 11.600 13.278 16.730 21.078 26.557 48.257 60.800
2013 44.200 6.693 8.433 9.653 12.162 15.323 19.306 35.082 44.200
2014 62.000 9.388 11.829 13.540 17.060 21.494 27.081 49.209 62.000
2015 59.400 8.995 11.333 12.973 16.345 20.593 25.945 47.146 59.400
2016 40.000 6.057 7.631 8.736 11.006 13.867 17.472 31.748 40.000
1997 80.000 12.114 15.263 17.472 22.013 27.734 34.943 63.496 80.000
1998 75.000 11.357 14.309 16.380 20.637 26.001 32.759 59.528 75.000
1999 70.000 10.600 13.355 15.288 19.261 24.268 30.575 55.559 70.000
2000 100.000 15.143 19.079 21.840 27.516 34.668 43.679 79.370 100.000
2001 80.400 12.175 15.339 17.559 22.123 27.873 35.118 63.814 80.400
2002 40.000 6.057 7.631 8.736 11.006 13.867 17.472 31.748 40.000
2003 50.000 7.571 9.539 10.920 13.758 17.334 21.840 39.685 50.000
2004 80.000 12.114 15.263 17.472 22.013 27.734 34.943 63.496 80.000
2005 180.000 27.257 34.341 39.311 49.529 62.403 78.622 142.866 180.000
2006 60.000 9.086 11.447 13.104 16.510 20.801 26.207 47.622 60.000
2007 132.400 20.049 25.260 28.916 36.431 45.901 57.831 105.086 132.400
2008 90.000 13.628 17.171 19.656 24.764 31.201 39.311 71.433 90.000
2009 90.000 13.628 17.171 19.656 24.764 31.201 39.311 71.433 90.000
2010 110.000 16.657 20.986 24.023 30.268 38.135 48.047 87.307 110.000
2011 50.500 7.647 9.635 11.029 13.896 17.507 22.058 40.082 50.500
2012 53.200 8.056 10.150 11.619 14.639 18.443 23.237 42.225 53.200
2013 108.300 16.399 20.662 23.652 29.800 37.546 47.304 85.958 108.300
2014 62.200 9.419 11.867 13.584 17.115 21.564 27.168 49.368 62.200
2015 77.400 11.720 14.767 16.904 21.297 26.833 33.808 61.432 77.400
2016 83.400 12.629 15.912 18.214 22.948 28.913 36.428 66.195 83.400
Hydrologists and engineers require Intensity-duration-frequency data in the planning and design of water resources
projects. Historical rainfall records are needed to obtain design estimates for both small and large projects. This
study has attempted to provide much needed and useful design charts for water resources planning and development
in Upper Cauvery. The results from the IDF analysis showed that the Log-Normal distribution method was successfully
used to derive the rainfall intensity, duration and frequency at each of the 44 selected synoptic stations in Upper Cauvery.
Isopluvial maps were also produce for Upper Cauvery for various duration and frequencies. The results obtained should
serve to meet the need for rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships and estimates in various parts of Upper
Cauvery, both for short and longer recurrence intervals. The use of the results of this study to calculate design floods could
be done with greater easy for most parts of Upper Cauvery. Village maps can be overlayed with isopluvial maps to find the
rainfall intensity at any particular point. It is hoped that as more precipitation data at required time scale are available the
analysis could also be refined and applied to individual station series to obtain improved estimates of the IDF parameters
and more precise maps.
Reference
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AUTHORS PROFILE