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CBS News Battleground Tracker - December 3–11, 2019

Democrats in Super Tuesday States


Sample 10,379 Registered Voters who are Democrats1
Margin of Error ±1.3%

20. Do you think Democrats’ chances of beating Donald Trump in 2020 will get easier or harder if they nominate
someone who is...

Won’t make a
Easier Harder difference
A woman 14% 49% 37%
A man 46% 5% 49%
Straight 48% 4% 48%
Gay 5% 64% 31%
White 53% 3% 44%
Black 10% 50% 40%
Hispanic 8% 55% 37%

Other questions held for future release.

1 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents are included.

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CBS News Battleground Tracker - December 3–11, 2019
Democrats in Super Tuesday States

20A. Democrats’ Chances if Nominee — A woman


Do you think Democrats’ chances of beating Donald Trump in 2020 will get easier or harder if they nominate someone who is...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity


Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Easier 14% 17% 12% 16% 16% 13% 11% 12% 15% 18%
Harder 49% 43% 53% 53% 48% 46% 51% 48% 52% 49%
Won’t make a difference 37% 40% 35% 31% 36% 41% 38% 40% 33% 32%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
Weighted N (10,248) (4,212) (6,036) (1,688) (2,734) (3,471) (2,356) (5,798) (1,935) (1,676)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology


Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Easier 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 24%


Harder 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 49% 44%
Won’t make a difference 37% 37% 36% 40% 38% 37% 31%
Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 99%
Weighted N (10,248) (9,619) (8,253) (1,954) (6,467) (3,064) (667)

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CBS News Battleground Tracker - December 3–11, 2019
Democrats in Super Tuesday States

20B. Democrats’ Chances if Nominee — A man


Do you think Democrats’ chances of beating Donald Trump in 2020 will get easier or harder if they nominate someone who is...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity


Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Easier 46% 44% 48% 53% 44% 44% 49% 45% 50% 48%
Harder 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 4% 2% 3% 7% 8%
Won’t make a difference 49% 51% 47% 41% 49% 52% 49% 52% 43% 44%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (10,252) (4,222) (6,031) (1,689) (2,728) (3,472) (2,363) (5,813) (1,922) (1,673)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology


Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Easier 46% 47% 47% 42% 46% 46% 50%


Harder 5% 5% 5% 3% 4% 5% 15%
Won’t make a difference 49% 48% 47% 55% 50% 49% 35%
Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (10,252) (9,623) (8,255) (1,953) (6,468) (3,075) (659)

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CBS News Battleground Tracker - December 3–11, 2019
Democrats in Super Tuesday States

20C. Democrats’ Chances if Nominee — Straight


Do you think Democrats’ chances of beating Donald Trump in 2020 will get easier or harder if they nominate someone who is...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity


Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Easier 48% 46% 49% 52% 46% 46% 52% 48% 47% 50%
Harder 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 3% 2% 2% 6% 6%
Won’t make a difference 48% 49% 47% 43% 49% 51% 46% 49% 47% 44%
Totals 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100%
Weighted N (10,219) (4,213) (6,006) (1,686) (2,733) (3,454) (2,347) (5,786) (1,920) (1,672)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology


Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Easier 48% 48% 49% 47% 49% 46% 47%


Harder 4% 4% 4% 2% 3% 4% 13%
Won’t make a difference 48% 48% 47% 51% 48% 49% 40%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (10,219) (9,590) (8,228) (1,949) (6,455) (3,050) (666)

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CBS News Battleground Tracker - December 3–11, 2019
Democrats in Super Tuesday States

20D. Democrats’ Chances if Nominee — Gay


Do you think Democrats’ chances of beating Donald Trump in 2020 will get easier or harder if they nominate someone who is...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity


Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Easier 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 2% 3% 7% 8%
Harder 64% 64% 65% 65% 62% 63% 70% 65% 65% 61%
Won’t make a difference 31% 31% 30% 30% 32% 32% 28% 32% 28% 31%
Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (10,218) (4,207) (6,012) (1,681) (2,729) (3,459) (2,350) (5,791) (1,927) (1,664)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology


Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Easier 5% 4% 5% 3% 4% 5% 11%
Harder 64% 65% 64% 67% 66% 64% 58%
Won’t make a difference 31% 31% 31% 30% 30% 31% 31%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (10,218) (9,589) (8,233) (1,943) (6,447) (3,062) (659)

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CBS News Battleground Tracker - December 3–11, 2019
Democrats in Super Tuesday States

20E. Democrats’ Chances if Nominee — White


Do you think Democrats’ chances of beating Donald Trump in 2020 will get easier or harder if they nominate someone who is...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity


Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Easier 53% 50% 55% 57% 52% 51% 54% 50% 58% 57%
Harder 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3%
Won’t make a difference 44% 47% 42% 40% 44% 46% 44% 48% 39% 39%
Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 99%
Weighted N (10,160) (4,186) (5,974) (1,669) (2,700) (3,442) (2,349) (5,778) (1,893) (1,650)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology


Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Easier 53% 53% 54% 49% 53% 51% 61%


Harder 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4%
Won’t make a difference 44% 44% 43% 49% 45% 45% 35%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (10,160) (9,541) (8,180) (1,938) (6,437) (3,029) (649)

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CBS News Battleground Tracker - December 3–11, 2019
Democrats in Super Tuesday States

20F. Democrats’ Chances if Nominee — Black


Do you think Democrats’ chances of beating Donald Trump in 2020 will get easier or harder if they nominate someone who is...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity


Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Easier 10% 13% 8% 13% 12% 9% 7% 9% 10% 12%


Harder 50% 45% 54% 51% 50% 49% 51% 46% 60% 53%
Won’t make a difference 40% 42% 38% 36% 38% 42% 42% 45% 30% 35%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (10,128) (4,167) (5,960) (1,664) (2,689) (3,432) (2,342) (5,759) (1,885) (1,650)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology


Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Easier 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 17%


Harder 50% 50% 51% 47% 51% 49% 49%
Won’t make a difference 40% 40% 39% 43% 40% 41% 33%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
Weighted N (10,128) (9,505) (8,154) (1,932) (6,432) (3,013) (638)

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CBS News Battleground Tracker - December 3–11, 2019
Democrats in Super Tuesday States

20G. Democrats’ Chances if Nominee — Hispanic


Do you think Democrats’ chances of beating Donald Trump in 2020 will get easier or harder if they nominate someone who is...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity


Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Easier 8% 11% 6% 11% 10% 8% 5% 7% 8% 13%


Harder 55% 49% 60% 58% 54% 54% 56% 53% 61% 56%
Won’t make a difference 37% 40% 34% 31% 36% 38% 39% 40% 31% 31%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (10,108) (4,151) (5,957) (1,662) (2,699) (3,414) (2,334) (5,745) (1,877) (1,656)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology


Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Easier 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 14%
Harder 55% 55% 55% 54% 56% 54% 51%
Won’t make a difference 37% 36% 37% 37% 36% 38% 35%
Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (10,108) (9,489) (8,138) (1,929) (6,418) (3,013) (632)

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HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED AND THE
MARGIN OF ERROR CALCULATED

December 15, 2019

This CBS News survey is conducted by YouGov online between December 3 – 11, 2019. A
representative sample of 21,461 registered voters in 14 states expected to hold primaries on Super
Tuesday (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North
Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia) was selected from YouGov’s
online panel. This sample includes 10,379 self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning
Independents. Respondents to the Battleground Tracker in these 14 states were recontacted
to participate. This includes the first wave fielded May 31 – June 12, 2019, the second wave
fielded July 9 – 18, 2019, the third wave fielded August 28 – September 4, 2019, the fourth wave
fielded October 3 – 11, 2019, and the fifth wave fielded November 6 – 13, 2019. Of the 47,062
respondents in the first five waves, 15,476 were re-interviewed — a recontact rate of 33%.
This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based upon voter
registration lists and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2016 Presidential
vote. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters within states. Smaller
states were oversampled relative to larger ones, and the overall cross-state sample was then
weighted to reflect the correct distribution of voters. The within-state weights range from 0.1 to
8.0, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.9. After geographic post-stratification, the
full sample weights range from 0.1 to 8.7, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.9.
The margin of error (a 95% confidence interval) for a sample percentage p based upon the entire
sample is approximately 0.9%. It is calculated using the formula
s
1 + CV2
p̂ ± 100 ⇥
n
where CV is the coefficient of variation of the sample weights and n is the sample size used
to compute the proportion. This is a measure of sampling error (the average of all estimates
obtained using the same sample selection and weighting procedures repeatedly). The sample
estimate should di↵er from its expected value by less than margin of error in 95 percent of
all samples. It does not reflect non-sampling errors, including potential selection bias in panel
participation or in response to a particular survey.