ASTM001/MTH724U

SOLAR SYSTEM

Lecture 9: Chaos and

Long-Term Evolution
 Introduction
The equations we have used so far describe systems that
are usually conservative (i.e. energy is a constant) and
deterministic.
We expect that the future and past states of the systems
are determined by the equations and the starting
conditions alone. Therefore we expect that if we are
given the state (positions and velocities) of a system at
one time then we can confidently predict the future or
past state at another time.
What we have learned in recent years is that systems as
simple as the three-body problem can give rise to chaotic
motion whereby the motion, although deterministic, is
nevertheless unpredictable over sufficiently long time
scales.
 What is Chaos?
A system is chaotic if it shows a sensitive dependence
on initial conditions, whereby a small change in
starting values can produce a radically different
subsequent state (the “butterfly hypothesis”).
 Examples of Chaotic Orbits (1)
The orbit of (2060) Chiron (a=13.75AU, e=0.385) is
chaotic. It has a 1 in 8 chance that a close approach to
Saturn will cause it to leave the Solar System. It has a 7 in 8
chance that a close approach to Saturn will cause its orbit
to evolve into the inner solar system.
The orbit of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 is/was chaotic. It
had a close approach to Jupiter in 1992 leading to its tidal
disruption and eventual impact with Jupiter in July 1994. It
was probably captured by Jupiter in 1929 (+/-9y) and prior
to that it probably had the orbit of a short-period Jupiter-
family comet.
Interplanetary spacecraft move on chaotic trajectories. The
gravity assist technique makes use of the sensitive
dependence on initial conditions to make large changes.
Examples of Chaotic Orbits (2)
But chaotic orbits can be more subtle. Consider the
following numerical integration:

The starting longitudes differed by 0.000001 degrees

resulting in a clear divergence in the behaviour of the
eccentricity after about 160 Jupiter periods.
Regular and Chaotic Orbits (1)
Consider motion in the circular restricted three-body
problem (CRTBP):

In the CRTBP the Jacobi constant is a constant or

integral of the motion:
Regular and Chaotic Orbits (2)
Therefore, if we know, for example, the x, y and xdot
values we can always find the ydot value (up to a sign
change) by using the Jacobi constant. Suppose we
then decide to look at the x and xdot values only when
y=0 and ydot positive. This will give a sequence of
points in the (x,xdot) space. This gives a Poincaré
surface of section.
Regular and Chaotic Orbits (3)
Let us look at some results of numerical integrations
showing regular and chaotic orbits:

First the evolution of e and a for a regular orbit:

Regular and Chaotic Orbits (4)
Now the same data plotted as a surface of section:

The points on the “islands” are produced in sequence,

one on the first, one on the second, one on the third.
Islands like these are usually associated with
resonance, in this case the 7:4 resonance with Jupiter.
Regular and Chaotic Orbits (5)
Now plots of e and a variation for a chaotic orbit:

The time variation still shows some obvious periods

but the behaviour is fundamentally different from the
regular case.
 Regular and Chaotic Orbits (6)
Now the same data plotted as a surface of section:

Note that the previous three islands are still there, outlined
by the “fuzzy” chaotic region. Note also the tendency for
points to “stick” around the resonant islands.
 The Lyapounov Exponent (1)
We can quantify the degree of divergence of nearby
trajectories by calculating the maximum Lyapounov
characteristic exponent. Exponential divergence of nearby
trajectories is one of the properties of chaotic motion. For
example:
 The Lyapounov Exponent (2)
The maximum LCE is found numerically by calculating:

It is usually better to “renormalise” the separation

vector at fixed intervals so that the local rate of
divergence is measured.
 The Lyapounov Exponent (3)
If the orbit is chaotic then the separation will vary with
time by:

The maximum LCE is then:

If renormalisation is used then:

 The Lyapounov Exponent (4)
If the orbit is chaotic then we expect a log γ vs. log t
plot to tend to a finite value. If the orbit is regular the
plot should have a slope of -1.
 Chaos in the CRTBP (1)
The amount of the chaos in the CRTBP depends on the
value of the Jacobi constant.
This is a sequence of surfaces of section for the region
interior to Jupiter’s orbit in the CRTBP:
 Chaos in the CRTBP (2)
This is a sequence of surfaces of section for the region
exterior to Jupiter’s orbit in the CRTBP:
 Algebraic Mappings
One of the biggest advances in studies of the
dynamical evolution of the solar system was the use of
algebraic mappings to study orbits over long time
periods.
The mappings most used in solar system work can be
classified into three major types:
1. Resonance maps
2. Encounter maps
3. N-Body maps
We will look at teach of these in turn, but first it helps
if we look at an even simpler map — the standard
map.
 The Standard Map (1)
The standard map is derived from the Hamiltonian of
a simple pendulum where the point of suspension is
oscillating.
In suitable coordinates the Hamiltonian is

To this we add an infinite number of short period

terms:

If we write
 The Standard Map (2)
Then the Hamiltonian can be written as:

where we now have a periodic Dirac delta function.

The equations of motion are now:

which we can integrate to give:

 The Standard Map (3)

Hence, the relationships between the old (unprimed)

and new (primed) values of the action and angle
variables are:

This provides a mapping taking us from one point in

the phase space to the next. This mapping, despite its
simplicity, has incredibly intricate structure, illustrating
resonance, chaos, etc. k0 is a perturbation parameter.
The Standard Map (4)

k0 = 0.8 k0 = 1.2
 Resonance Maps (1)
Jack Wisdom was the first person to apply Chirikov’s
technique in the derivation of the standard map to
devise an algebraic mapping to study asteroid
motion. He chose to study the 3:1 resonance, partly
because it was easy to isolate the relevant terms
without having to worry about nearby resonances.
The Hamiltonian for the 3:1 resonance (based on a
second order expansion of the relevant second order
secular and resonant parts is:
 Resonance Maps (2)
The F terms are from the secular part and the C, D
and E terms are from the resonant part. Here

Wisdom’s idea was to replace the resonant terms by

an infinite number of short-period terms which,
because they now looked like Dirac delta functions,
could be applied as impulses using the analytical
solution to the secular part in between impulses.
 Resonance Maps (3)
The Hamiltonian now looks like:
 Resonance Maps (4)
The resulting map relied on (i) using an analytical secular
solution and (ii) approximating the (albeit artificial)
resonant terms by impulses. The map was approximately
1000 times faster than solving the full equations of
motion.
Murray & Fox showed that the map was as good as the
averaged second order part of the disturbing function
from which it was derived and that it could be used as a
good indicator of regular and chaotic regions in the solar
system.
Note that Wisdom’s map was based on a second order
expansion of the disturbing function and so we would not
expect it to be a good approximation to the real motion
when the eccentricity was large.
 Encounter Maps

Encounter maps make use of a constant of the

motion, such as the Jacobi constant, to predict the
outcome of a conjunction between two objects
(usually a test particle and a planet).
Encounter maps are useful for approximating the
localised behaviour of the particle’s motion as it
encounters a planet. It can be used in association
with other maps (particularly the N-body map) to
provide an accurate map for close approaches.
 N-Body Maps (1)
In 1991 Wisdom & Holman developed an algebraic
mapping for the N-Body problem that was to
revolutionize studies of the long-term dynamical
evolution of the solar system.
The map relied on delta functions but not a truncated
expansion of the disturbing function.
The key to the map is the expression of the Hamiltonian
in a Jacobian centre of mass coordinate system. This
allowed the Hamiltonian to be split neatly between a
keplerian part and a interaction part:

Furthermore,
 N-Body Maps (2)
Relationship between the standard Cartesian frame
and the Jacobian centre of mass frame:

The Wisdom-Holman map was subsequently adapted by

Duncan and Levison to produce an off-the-shelf integrator
for solar system orbits that is widely used today.
The Kirkwood Gaps (1)
 The Kirkwood Gaps (2)
However, the orbits are not randomly distributed — the
belt has a clear structure determined by resonances.
 The Kirkwood Gaps (3)
The gaps were first noted by Daniel Kirkwood in 1867,
based on a sample of <100 asteroids.
 The Kirkwood Gaps (4)
In 1979 Froeschlé & Scholl classified the theories for the
origin of the gaps into four main groups:
1. Statistical
2. Collisional
3. Cosmogonic
4. Gravitational
Any theory for the gaps has to explain not only the absence
of asteroids at certain resonances but also the presence of
asteroids at other locations.
Consider the outer region of the belt. A plot of e against a
for the asteroids can be superimposed on a plot of
maximum libration widths for the main resonances:
 The Kirkwood Gaps (5)

This suggests that resonance overlap is responsible for

clearing asteroids in the outer part of the belt.
What about the main belt?
 The Kirkwood Gaps (6)
Dermott & Murray suggested that the gravitational
hypothesis was the correct one based on their study of
maximum libration widths and the close connection with
the observed distribution of asteroids:
 The Kirkwood Gaps (7)
However, it was Wisdom’s study of the 3:1 resonance,
using his map, that provided the first clues that chaos was
involved.
 The Kirkwood Gaps (8)
Wisdom went on to show that asteroids close to the 3:1
resonance could become Earth-crossing thereby providing
an explanation for the delivery of meteorites from the
asteroid belt within their cosmic ray exposure ages.
 The Kirkwood Gaps (9)
Wisdom also provided an analytical explanation for the
observed motion of asteroids at the resonance. The 3:1
resonance mechanism may not be as simple as first
thought because secular resonance also plays a role.
 The Kirkwood Gaps (10)
Gladman et al. Studied the long-term evolution of
asteroids. For example, consider this bizarre evolution:
 The Kirkwood Gaps (11)
In the space of a decade the problem went from one
where no mechanism for removal was known to one
where the mechanisms were too efficient.
Solar System Stability (1)
Solar System Stability (2)
Solar System Stability (3)
Solar System Stability (4)