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A mes parents, Pour leur soutien et leurs encouragements continus. Que ce modeste travail
puisse leur exprimer toute mon affection et tout mon amour.
7" ! % 9- %
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!
7" ! % 9- %
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" !
A mes sœurs Jihène, Salma et Synda-Rim, Pour notre complicité, Qu'elles trouvent dans ce
travail une marque de mon grand attachement.
< .
!
< .
A mon très cher Zied, Pour sa gentillesse et sa générosité.
7" ! % 9- %
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" ! +
!
= 7" ! % 9- %
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A Atef et Nejmeddine.
< .
!
< .
A tout mes amis, A Asma, Ines, Hayet, Melika et Mounir.
7" ! % 9- %
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(* 7" ! % 9- %
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A toute ma famille.
< .
!
< .
A tous ceux qui m'ont aidé tout au long de ces années.
Je tiens à remercier tout particulièrement mon directeur de recherche M. Jean Pierre
ALLEGRET pour ses conseils, son soutien et sa disponibilité tout au long de l'élaboration de ce
travail.
Mes remerciements s'adressent également aux membres du jury M. Christian DESCAMPS,
M. Philippe DULBECCO et M. Jean François GOUX qui ont bien voulu accepter d'évaluer ce
travail.
7" ! % 9- %
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'
La libéralisation financière de la fin des années quatre-vingt et du début des
annéesquatre-vingt-dix s'est traduite dans les marchés émergents, notamment les pays d'Asie du
Sud Est et d'Amérique Latine, par des entrées massives de capitaux. De telles entrées contrastent
avec le tarissement des capitaux subi par ces pays à la suite de la crise de la dette. Une question
importante est de déterminer dans quelle mesure ces entrées de capitaux ont elles déstabilisé
l’environnement macroéconomique des marchés émergents. C’est à cette question qu’est
consacrée cette recherche. On montre que ces capitaux ont affecté plusieurs variables tels que le
taux d'intérêt, le taux de change et la liquidité, et ont été à l'origine de dérèglements qui n'ont pas
été bénéfiques pour les pays en question. Parmi les instruments de gestion des entrées de
capitaux utilisés par les autorités de ces pays, les contrôles sur les entrées de capitaux se sont
avérés avoir une efficacité limitée. Face aux difficultés à maintenir des taux de change fixe
comme ancre nominale, et face aux limites des agrégats de monnaie pour remplir une telle
fonction, de plus en plus de marchés émergents se sont tournés vers la cible d’inflation. Reste à
savoir si cette dernière permet aux pays émergents de faire face aux problèmes posés par les
entrées de capitaux.
Mots clés : marchés émergents, libéralisation financière, entrées de capitaux, réformes
structurelles, plans de stabilisation, contrôles de capitaux, politique monétaire, ancrage nominal,
ciblage d'inflation.
< .
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#&
#&
During the late eighties and early nineties, the financial liberalization in the emerging markets
such as, the south-east Asian and Latin American countries gave birth to massive capital inflows.
At this stage, we will try to determine whether the volume of capital inflows contributed to the
destabilization of the macroeconomic components of the above mentioned countries. Therefore,
we analyzed the effect caused by capital inflows on the monetary policies of these countries.
Indeed, the outcome of our research showed that capital inflows have numerous effects on the
macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, exchange rate and M2. The research that we
conducted showed that the capital inflows affected negatively the long term stability of the
south-east Asian countries as well as most of the Latin American countries. They evolved in an
economical context which was extremely harmful to their financial stability to an extent that
traditional monetary policies implemented and used by the above mentioned states, including
capital inflow controls proved to be of limited efficiency. However, many emerging countries
reverted to targeting inflation, as an alternative to nominal anchor, after being unable to maintain
a pegged exchange rate in addition to their inability to target monetary aggregates as being
inadequate considering the goals to be attained. Nonetheless, the extent of the effect of targeting
inflation on the stabilization of the economy is still to be determined.
Keywords : emerging markets, financial liberalization, capital inflows, structural reforms,
stabilization programs, capital controls, monetary policy, nominal anchor, inflation targeting.
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La motivation conduisant à l'adoption des contrôles de capitaux peut être
analysée à travers le triangle d'incompatibilité (Mundell, 1972 , Padoa-Schioppa
,1987). Le triangle d'incompatibilité montre qu'il est impossible de maintenir à la
fois la fixité des changes, la mobilité des capitaux et l'autonomie de la politique
économique. Ainsi la libéralisation des mouvements de capitaux n'est possible
que s'il y a abandon de l'autonomie de la politique économique, ou abandon de la
fixité des changes. Une analogie a été établie par Krugman (1998) selon laquelle
le problème porte sur le choix d'un régime monétaire international qui pourrait
réunir à la fois ajustement 53 , confiance 54 et liquidité 55 . En reliant l'ajustement et
53
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la liquidité on obtient un régime de change flottant. Avec l'ajustement et la
confiance on a le régime de Bretton Woods, et enfin en reliant la liquidité et la
confiance, on obtient soit un currency board (caisse d’émission) soit une union
monétaire.
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dans une première section, il s’agit de montrer que si la mobilité internationale
des capitaux a fragilisé l'ancrage sur le change, il se révèle délicat de mettre en
œuvre une politique de cible d'agrégats ; dans cette perspective, la seconde
section étudie dans quelles mesures les marchés émergents peuvent conduire
une stratégie de politique monétaire fondée sur une cible directe d'inflation ; la
troisième section présente les différentes expériences des pays émergents en
matière d'ancrage nominal et les résultats obtenus pour le ciblage d'inflation.
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