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” Embedded Risk in the Logistics Current Situation of Hong Kong’s Logistics Industry
Business Cycle
香港物流業的現況
貢獻約佔28% ,角色舉足輕重。隨著科技的發展,其可靠性、複雜性及競爭力
Basel
7,000,000
both import and expor• of merchandise value indicate
J 6,000,000
the rapid developmen • of the logistics industry. The total i
皂
5,000,000
Total expo同S
告 憫。,伽
2,000,000
addition ,。ccording to the Logistics Performance Index 1,000,000
3,500,000
=
i 2,500.’。∞
effective customs. However, are • here anγunderlγing 一一 一
。
通6
';' 2,000,000
.a
. Imports
1,000.’。∞
developmen • of other countries ♀ 致狗,000
3,000,000
第二大物流中心 。 除 7 地理優勢之外,取得這些驕人成就亦有賴 於 香
! 2,呦,000
1,α刻,000
會面對甚麼風險呢?
500,000
。 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
t,•
• ! 1
In general, logistics can be classi有ed into three main parts: storage, 物流業的運作大致上可分為三個環節:儲存、
number of steps. A withdrawal list is produced, and then the items 軍,然後以人手或機器從倉庫中取出貨物,並
式外,客人亦會選擇多式聯運及協調聯運模式
and delivery time. For intermodal transportation, goods are kept in 理貨物的時問以及加強轉運的安全性。
the same cargo without extra handling when changing the delivery
mode. This can reduce the time and increase the security of 在存入貨物方面,物流公司除 7 要按貨品選擇
如大小和重量等,輸入電腦系統,以方便管理
of goods for the optimum location for storage, they also have to
input data such as weight and size of the goods into the system.
心 Warehousing
Supplies Port
It seems that the business operations of a logistics company are 乍看之下,物流公司的業務並不是太複雜,但
stored and its demand, and the type of automated machines for 、數量,倉庫的佈局,以及鏟草或輸送帶等提
considered include not only rack dimensions, the design of the 其如此。對於整個運送的效率和生產力,以上
rack, the number of racks and the warehouse layout, but also 提及的各個環節都擔負著非常重要的角色。
題。為 7 減低貨物的安全風險,不少物流公司
都設有監察系統追蹤貨物的去向,本文稍後亦
會進一步討論有關系統。
Accuracy issues cover transportation details which include 而準確度則包括 7 運送詳情,例如目的地和指定
type of goods, quantity and the desired kind of packaging. To 和指定包裝等。為 7 簡他確認貨物的程序,幾乎
Apa吋 from the risks in daily operations, companies have to have 有相當良好的危機管理,以處理隨時發生的極端
the warehouse can happen at any time. That is why some 運輸處提供的即時路面情況結合使用,有些公司
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Big Data in Logistics Industry 物流業中的大數據
shipment occur every day. Handling the fast and massive data is 萬宗計的貨運。要迅速處理龐大的數據,為業界
now a new challenge to the industry. A recent survey reveals 帶來 7 重大的挑戰。最近一項調查發現, 60% 物
that about 60% of logistics companies are now investing in big 流公司正發展大數據的分析業務。可是由於欠缺
receive a variety of data, but also they need to process the data 據大致可歸納於三個來源:客戶、設施管理及運
day and night. In short, the types of big data can be simply
attributed to three sources: customers, in-house management
as well as transpo吋at ion.
5對闋
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optimize the planning of resource allocation and adjust their 的覆蓋面。在2013 年,美國的物流業規模在全球
weight and content of goods while those from the transportation 而 來 自運輸環節的數據則包括運輸成本和時間 。
section consist of the cost and time of shipping. Combining these 物流 公 司可透過綜合分析當中的資訊 來 制定完 善
The purpose of handling big data is basically to improve the 資商業智能的 物 流 公 司或其他行業 公 司都會遇到
raising the turnover rate of warehouse as well as expanding the 科技規格、儲存容 量 及系統的 效 能帶 來 挑戰 。 對
the 4Vs characteristics (volume, velocity, variety and veracity) 表 來 管理數據 。 電子數據交換( EDI )則是取代
pose to IT speci行 cation, storage capacity and potency of internal 傳統方法的一種新模式 。 由於 公 司各部門在很多
system. As a result, the demand for these products and talents 時候都採用不同格式輸入和儲存數據,因此要花
台則提供標準的數據輸入格式,從而避免 7 上述
With respect to the form of data interchange, companies usually 情況的發生 。 不過,由於電子數據交換平台的設
Interchange (EDI) is one of the new forms to replace the OOCL 等大型企業中較為常見,在中小企業中並
save their data in di仟erent formats, it takes time for data merging 數據的 需 求日增,電子數據交換平台作為快捷和
and clearing before processing and calculation, EDI provides a 系 統他的資訊管理工具,自 然 應在日後扮演更重
standard form of data input to avoid this scenario. However, 要的角色 , 現時亦有些 物 流 公 司加強 7 在電子數
since the set-up cost is relatively higher than using traditional 據交換平台方面的投入 。
Wc0rkina 1 Department A
/川1、
國 ..
We時ina 2 Department B
EDI
/九
.. Electronic Data
Work~ng 3 Department C Interchange
of living. The logistics industry has also utilized technologies such 亦已開始利用各類技術來處理日常事務及縮短運
management system (WMS) and electronic payment methods to 二維碼( QR-code )、倉庫管理系統及電子繳費
Ltd. during an interview, in order to monitor the operation of their 隊的運作,很多物流公司都引人 7 汽車追蹤系統
vehicle tracking system include a tracking device installed in each 和全球定位系統( GPS )。定位位置訊問由追蹤
vehicle, tracking server and user interface with the help of GPS. 裝置發出,經網絡傳送到伺服器進行分析。車隊
The location signal is transmitted from the tracking device to the 的管理員可以透過自動定位圖取得車輛的即時資
相刊
4一一口
police can easily track the location of lost cars by following the 位置。
signals emitted.
車隊管理
Fleet Management
管理車隊時,清楚 7 解司機的即時位置非常重要
transportation planning.
交通擠塞和車輛損壞都是物流業常見的意外,且
以幫助追蹤受損的車輛,在發生交通意外時亦可
Telecom
GPS
Server
Traitment center
111
﹒︱
GPRS
GSM
Cartography
Radio-Frequency Identification, RFID 無線射頻辨識
omnipresent technology in our daily lives. The Octopus card 較陌生,但其實這種技術很常見。 ) l 達通早己應
用這種電磁技術來辨認卡上的晶片。由於無線射
utilizes this electromagnetic technology to identify the chip on
頻辨識具備快速辨認功能,因此物流業亦開始利
each individual card. At the same time, because of the
fast-tracking function, logistics companies have also started 用這種科技來處理成千上萬的貨物。
資料,但條碼需要準確對準解碼器才能閱讀當中
Traditionally, warehouses use barcodes mainly to label the
的資料,而且掃描的距離不能太遠,因此會為掃
information of goods in a package. Scanning inconvenience is
描帶來不便。透過無線射頻系統解讀器閱讀由晶
made since the barcode must be in the line of sight of the reader
and the scanning distance cannot be too far. Through using the 片所發出的獨特頻率,可取得儲存於晶片內的資
frequencies of the waves emitted from chips with a large amount 等,從而令貨物的管理變得更方便快捷。除此之
少掃描操作的不便。物流公司的倉庫可將偵測器
delivery date. Also, the detecting distance can be as far as 2m.
Obviously, the warehouse can handle the big data carried by the 安裝於貨物運輸帶上,進行貨物自動分類,以便
出錯的機會﹔可重複使用的晶片則能夠滿低營運
warehouse fault can be easily eliminated. In addition, the chips 效率。物流業 oJ利用無線射頻技術來提升產品質
can hold large amounts of data, including weight, size, content 量及加快處理速度,從而改善物流業務的工作流
The weather presents one huge risk to the logistics industry and so 天氣可以為物流業帶來不容忽視的風險,對於航
場跑道,令機場運作大受影響。立法會亦於近年
typhoon. 響到運作時間和送運的可靠性,甚至令香港賠上
高質物流服務的聲譽。
a仟ect punctuality and reliability of delivery. This is one of the key 氣預測服務來減低由不穩定天氣所造成的損失。
factors a仟ecting the delivery of high quality services for which the 但基於香港獨特的地理位置,香港機場管理局建
的風向 、 風速、能見度及雲量等重要數據,進行
direction, wind speed, visibility, cloud amount and cloud base, 急應變措施,以有效地處理香港機場的緊急情況
etc., are taken into account for any necessary changes in the 。常規的應變演習也有助於機管局加強內部溝通
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Future Developinent of Hong Kong’s 香湛物流業的未來發展
Logistics Industry
全球(七概念增加 7 物流業的複雜性。為 7 舒緩市
With additional pressure from terrorism and environmental 香港擁有每日能處理 400 萬噸貨物的貨運機場和
tons of freight handled per day, and the 3rd largest container port
in the world, numerous obstacles confront Hong Kong's logistics 但營運開支的增加、運輸鏈模式的改變、製造形
始重點發展其物流業,香港物流業將需要進一步
now serious issues for the local logistics industry. Furthermore, 持香港的物流業國際領先地位、持續支持本土的
’
several challenges to Hong Kong s logistics industry. With the 善科技的幫助下,中國鹽田港現時已有能力
hub to China. Apa 吋 from development, the fees charged by 新加坡 、 日本和台灣,香港物流業在應用資
Yantian po吋 are much lower than those of Hong Kong which is 訊科技方面明顯落後,這會導致貨物處理時
Some professions have proposed that as the demand for 亦顯著上升 。 做好教育和推廣,有助於提升
logistics talent is one of the biggest issues in the future, the 本地物流業的人才質票,從而改善業界的生
’
In our eyes, although Hong Kong s logistics industry is now facing 雖然香港物流業正面對著不同的挑戰和風險,但
di仟erent kinds of risks and challenges, we believe Hong Kong still 我們相信,香港作為全球舉足輕重的物流中心,
plays a vital role in the movement of goods between Asia and 一直都扮演著亞美兩地貨運中轉站的角色。現峙
shopping sites such as Taobao, has become a new trend in retail, a 著保障買賣雙方交易的法律制度日趨完善,一個
new and big market is now appearing when the legislation system 全新和大型的市場亦會隨之成形。
the massive on line shopping website function has attracted about 過 57 億人民幣。我們相信日後如有類似的活動,
Meanwhile, the trading amount during this festival has reached 物是一個值得投資的範疇。
On 11 November. 2014,
Massive Online
Shopping Function
. Trading
Custome~s Amount Reta1
i lers
From over 20 countries Over RMB 5,700,000.00 More than 27,000
Business Intelligence Development 商業智能的發展
from its daily business. For SMEs, they can co-operate with IT 碼港及香港科學園內一些新興的資訊科技公司合
盲鵬
long been a supporter of IT companies, it is undoubtedly a
win-win approach for SMEs in the logistics sector to employ
specialized companies in Cyberport or Hong Kong Science Park 政府的支持
易周期。香港如要更進一步利用其作為人民幣離
dollar and Renminbi have been removed, this will surely enhance ,以及應對資訊科技需求的急速上升。
complete set of rules to protect the industry to cater to the rapid 數量嚴重不足,因此物流業的營運日益困難。雖
題。香港政府應投放更多資源保障物流業界,維
requires a large amount of land for relevant facilities such as airports 來建設相闋的設施,例如機場及港口。雖然香港己
and container terminals. Although the third runway for the Hong Kong 就建設機場第三條跑道展開討論,但仍要面對設施
these facilities can help companies, especially SMEs, to reduce their ,特別是對於中小企而言﹔另一方面則可減少佔用
operational cost and, on the other hand, they occupy a smaller amount 的土地。除此以外,興建地底貨倉亦有助於緩和土
According to our survey, the function of risk management in the 根據我們的訪問,物流 公 司的風險管理工作大多
the challenges in the future and reduce losses due to a sudden 損失 。 而事實上,風險管理不是銀行獨有的部門
management is not only relevant to the banking industry but all 理部門 。 有見及此,物流 公 司需要更加重視業務
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Black Monday ( 1987), the Asian Financial ζrisis ( 1997), the 黑色星期一( 1987) 、 亞洲金融風暴( 1997) 、 科網般爆
Dot-comζrash (2001), the Euro Crisis (2010 ). There is no lack of 破(2001) 、 歐債危機(2010) ......歷史上不乏偶發性經
price plunges and it usually take years for an economy to 述時期 。 期間的信貸違約和延遲還款機會大增,必定
營運上出現困難 。 在全球經濟正值金融危機侵襲階段
withdrawal. Problem arises when they do not have a su而 cient 會對銀行構成額外壓力 。 為此,銀行應該保持一定程
was established by the central bank governors of the Group of 1974 年正式成立。它由十個國家的中央銀行監
圍繞信貸風險及資產的風險配額,並為日後改
In 1988, Basel I was released which marked the 有 rst Basel debut. 良的版本奠下基礎。為 7 繁貼瞬息萬變的金融
time to time. Higher capital requirements were proposed and 協定得到 7 持續的改良和優忙,《巴塞爾協定II
market liquidity risk was the reason for more careful monitoring. 》與《巴塞爾協定III }因而相繼頒佈實施。
An analysis of the costs and bene有ts of the Basel Accord for 以下巴塞爾協定對香港經濟帶來的代價與得益的
’
Hong Kong s economy summarized in the table below was 分析,是根據香港金融管理局研究團隊於2010 年
ratio will reduce the GDP of Hong Kong. One of the reasons is 收取較高的借貸利息以彌補在新法規下的經營成
that banks will charge a higher lending rate to compensate for 本。故此,從正面的角度看,嚴謹的法規可以減
the cost of complying with the new regulations. In a positive 低金融危機發生的風險,並相應減低金錢和 GDP
sense, this can reduce the risk of a 有 nancial crisis and the 損失。
According to the report, the local banking industry could bene有t 定 III }中有關提高資產風險配額要求的規定。由
from the new Basel regulations with a higher rate of RWA (Risk 衷一可見,在分析金融危機對香港的短暫影響峙
’
Kong s GDP. On the other hand, by focusing on the permanent 為香港貢獻 2.76%GDP ,這是一個非常可觀的數
The report also suggests the influence of the new regulations on 研究報告亦有指出新協定對香港的影響比巴塞爾
Hong Kong would be less sign 的cant than that estimated by BζBS. 銀監會所預計的為小,從圖一及圓二可見,假設
From Chart 1 and ζhart 2 below, the net bene航 of the new 金融危機帶來短期性 GDP 虧損,香港得到的預計
regulations after a 有 nancial crisis in Hong Kong would be around 淨收益比巴塞爾銀監會所預計的平均少 0.07% ﹔
0.07% less on average assuming a temporary drop in GDP, while it 若假設金融危機帶來永 久 性GDP 虧損,香港得到
one hand, the probability of a 有 nancial crisis will not be a仟ected 生的機率並不會只因資本比率而產生太大變動。
much by capital ratio, but crucially by the level of liquidity in the 反之,整體銀行業的資金流動性會很大程度影響
only reduce the probability “ marginally’,. On the other hand, 降低金融危機發生的「邊際機率 J 。第二,根據
統計數據,金融危機給香港帶來的經濟損失遠比
the drop in GDP resulting from the 有 nancial crisis would cause a
significantly smaller loss to Hong Kong according to statistics. 巴塞爾銀監會預計的少。舉例說,於 1999 年金融
風暴期間,巴塞爾銀監會預計各經濟體的虧蝕為
For example, during the 1999 有 nancial crisis, the loss predicted
by the BCBS was around 158% of GDP. Yet the maximum loss to 該地方生產總值的 158% ,可是在銀行業持續低迷
Hong Kong would be around 133% of GDP, given that the 的前提下,香港的虧蝕仍只為生產總值的 133% 。
A low credit spread and high amount of capital retainment are 爾協定III 》的兩大困難之處。由於它需要銀行持
the two major di而culties for banks in Hong Kong in following 有4.5% 普通股本、 6% 一級資本不日更高資金流動
Tier 1 capital and more importantly a higher liquidity ratio, its 降低。因此,在可見的未來,銀行業的營運只會
its equity research and equity capital markets business around 資本市場業務,將更多的精力投放於散戶及企業
the world, and focused on retail and corporate lending. The bank 借貸。其應用 7 「資產風險配額優他策略」來達
”
is implementing “ RWA Optimization Strategies to optimize RWA 到最佳風險配額和資本應用,以將監管的影響減
with the proposed capital requirements. On the other hand, it has ﹔另一方面,資源可以分配到重點項目或盈利能
more e而ciently allocated its resources to further develop its core 力較強的部門,以鞏固及加強自身的競爭優勢。
competencies. Hence, Basel Accords urge banks to simplify their 所以《巴塞爾協定》要求銀行簡 t 其運作模式及
edge.
監管法規在日後只會變得越來越嚴格,從而令銀
In the future, regulations will only tighten. We have to see how 行需要找尋相對應的措施進行變革,但這種變革
banking environment will change, but we know well that it will 為 7 讓人們有一個更安全、更有保障的經濟環境
Text 撰文
LEE Tung Kiu 李東橋 TAM Kiu Fai 譚翹輝
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