Methods for a Single Categorical Variable – Confidence Intervals

Up to this point in the semester we’ve been using sample data to judge whether the observed data is consistent with
a statement about a population parameter or not (i.e. hypothesis testing). However, what happens when the
researcher has no idea what the population parameter might be? In this instance, the researcher would use sample
data to construct an interval, known as a confidence interval, which provides a range of
___________________________________________ values for the parameter of interest.

Comments:

 A confidence interval allows the researcher to ____________________ the population parameter of interest
(in this case p).

 Several methods exist for constructing a confidence interval for a binomial proportion. However, we will
focus on the _________________________ which is the type of interval JMP computes.

Example: Osteoporosis is a disease defined as very low bone density resulting in high risk of fracture, hospitalization,
and immobilization. Since it is unknown what the true proportion of postmenopausal women who suffer from
osteoporosis is, researchers are interested in estimating this value. A random sample of 50 postmenopausal women
was taken, and eight of them said they suffer from osteoporosis.

Questions:

1. Identify the population of interest for this study.

2. Identify the sample for this study.

3. Identify the variable of interest for this study.

Calculating the score confidence interval in JMP

First, we’ll need to enter the data into JMP as follows.

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Next, choose Analyze  Distribution from the menus at the top of the screen. Then put Osteoporosis in the Y,
Columns box and Count into the Freq box as shown below.

Click OK and you should get the following output.

Next, click on the little red arrow next to Osteoporosis and choose Confidence Interval  0.95. You should then get
the following output.

The 95% confidence interval is: __________ ≤ p ≤ __________

Lastly, we need to interpret the interval. That is, we need to describe what the interval of values represents.

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Margin of Error
The margin of error is defined as the distance between the center of the confidence interval and either endpoint. For
this problem we have:

Upper Endpoint – Center of Interval = 0.28 – 0.18

So, the resulting margin of error = 0.10.

Questions:

4. What happens to the margin of error when the confidence level decreases? For example, what will happen if
we construct a 90% confidence interval instead of a 95% confidence interval?

5. What will happen to the margin of error and confidence interval if we increase the confidence level?

6. Using JMP, find the 90% and 99% confidence intervals. Did the intervals change as expected?

Confidence Level Confidence Interval

90% __________ ≤ p ≤ __________

95% 0.08 ≤ p ≤ 0.29

99% __________ ≤ p ≤ __________

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Example: Luna et al. (Critical Care Medicine 2003) studied patients who were mechanically ventilated in the intensive
care unit of six hospitals in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The researchers found that of the 472 randomly selected
mechanically ventilated patients, 63 had clinical evidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP).

Questions:

7. Identify the parameter of interest in this study, making sure to use the appropriate statistical notation.

8. Using JMP, compute the 90% confidence interval for the true proportion of mechanically ventilated patients
with VAP.

9. Interpret the confidence interval found in Question 8.

Example: The Gerber Company sponsored a large survey of the eating habits of American infants and toddlers.
Among the many questions parents were asked was whether their child had eaten fried potatoes on the day before
the interview. Among the 679 infants 9 to 11 months old, 61 had eaten fried potatoes that day.

Questions:

10. Identify the parameter of interest in this study, making sure to use the appropriate statistical notation.

11. Using JMP, construct a 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of 9 to 11 month old infants who eat
fried potatoes on a given day.

12. Interpret the confidence interval found in Question 11.

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Example: According to a nationwide survey conducted in 2000, 60% of parents with young children condone
spanking their child as a regular form of punishment (Tampa Tribune, Oct. 5, 2000). A group of researchers in child
development has noticed a rise in parents using alternative forms of punishments, such as timeouts, in lieu of
spanking, and decided to test their claim. A random sample of 75 parents of young children was taken and asked
whether they condone spanking as a form of regular punishment. Forty of the 75 parents said they condone
spanking.

Research Question – Is there evidence that fewer parents with young children are condoning
spanking as a regular form of punishment?

Questions:

13. Identify the parameter of interest in this study, making sure to use the appropriate statistical notation.

14. Using JMP, find the 99% confidence interval for the true proportion of parents with young children who
condone spanking as regular form of punishment.

15. Interpret the 99% confidence interval found in Question 14.

16. In 2000, 60% of parents with small children condoned spanking as a regular form of punishment. Using the
confidence interval constructed in Question 14 does this provide evidence that fewer parents with young
children are condoning spanking as a regular form of punishment? Explain.

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Example Revisited: Recall that in the experimental drug example researchers were trying to determine if a new drug
provided more relief for adults suffering from nervous tension than the current treatment. A random sample of 20
adults with nervous tension were given the new drug and 18 found relief. The following hypothesis test was
conducted in an earlier set of notes.

Research Question – Is there evidence the new experimental drug is more effective than the
current drug?

H0: p = 0.70
Ha: p > 0.70

Can use Binomial distribution because the following four assumptions/conditions have been satisfied:
 n = 20 adults who suffer from nervous tension
 Relief, No Relief
 P(Relief) = 0.70 for each adult who suffers from nervous tension
 Adults who suffer from nervous tension are independent of one another

p-value = P(X ≥ 18) = 0.035 (using a Binomial distribution where n = 20 and p = 0.70)

Since 0.035 < 0.05 there is evidence that the new experimental drug is more effective than the current drug.

The hypothesis test has found statistical evidence that the new drug is more than 70% effective, but we do not have
any idea about what the percent effectiveness could be. However, we could now construct a confidence interval
which will give us an interval of possible/plausible/likely values for the true proportion of adults who suffer from
nervous tension that experience relief from the new drug.

Question:

17. Using JMP, construct a 90% confidence interval for this scenario.

________ ≤ p ≤ _________

18. Interpret the 90% confidence interval found in Question 17.

Note: By also constructing a confidence interval we not only know the new drug is MORE effective than the old drug,
but we also know by HOW MUCH more the new drug is effective!