Hypothesis,

Interpretation,
Validation, and
Conclusion.
Dr. Eng Febri Zukhruf
Hypothesis
Hypothesis, Interpretation, Validation, and Conclusion
Hypothesis
• Has been elaborated by other lecturers?
• If yes lets just briefly revisit this part..
Hypothesis
Basic step in scientific method:
1. Asking a question
2. Completing research
3. Making a hypothesis
4. Planning an investigation
5. Recording and analyzing data
6. Explaining the data
7. Communicating the results
Hypothesis
• A scientist bases his/her hypothesis both on what he or she has
observed, and on what he or she already knows to be true.
• The hypothesis that a scientist creates leads him or her to make a
prediction that can be tested next in an investigation.
Question Examples
A scientist notices that the tomato plant closest to her neighbor’s yard
is much taller than any of the other plants in her garden bed. She also
notices that the neighbor turns on his sprinkler system every day, and
that some of this water reaches only her big plant.

The scientist creates a question: Does daily watering from a sprinkler

make a tomato plant grow faster than other tomato plants?
Hypothesis Examples
The scientist creates this hypothesis to address her question: “If I
water the tomatoes in my garden daily then they will grow faster
because tomatoes grow more when they get more water.”
Hypothesis Examples
Notice how the example scientist’s hypothesis makes a prediction that
can be tested:
• “If I water the tomatoes in my garden daily then they will grow
faster because tomatoes grow more when they get more water.”
• What will the scientist do in the investigation to test her
hypothesis?
Hypothesis Concept
• Hypotheses are predictions about the relationship among two or
more variables or groups based on a theory or previous research
(Pittenger, 2003)
 A hypothesis is not just a prediction, a
hypothesis goes further.

Hypothesis A prediction is an educated guess

about the expected outcome of a
Concept specific test,

A hypothesis includes a possible

explanation about why the expected
outcome of a test will occur
Hypothesis Concept
• Example Prediction: If it gets cold outside the leaves will change
colors.
• Example Hypothesis: If it gets cold outside then the leaves will
change color because leaf color change is related to temperature.
 A good hypothesis includes two parts:

a prediction about the

outcome of a scientific
investigation
Hypothesis
Concept
an explanation for why those
results will occur
Hypothesis Concept
A good hypothesis is practically worded like this:
• If…..then…...because…….
• I predict…because
• I think…because
Although, in the several case, the explanation (i.e., “because” word) is
not explicitly included in the hypothesis
Even “hypothesis term” frequently stated in the implicit manner in
several reputable journal article.
Interpretation
Hypothesis, Interpretation, Validation, and Conclusion
 1st Polling

• Does the
interpretation
appropriate?
• Please poll at our
online course
website.
Definition
• Interpretation refers to the task of drawing inferences from the
collected facts after an analytical and/or experimental study.
• Interpretation is an art that one learns through practice and
experience.
• The task of interpretation has three major aspects
✓The effort to establish continuity in research through linking the results of a
given study with those of another.
✓The establishment of some explanatory concepts.
✓what has been observed by researcher in the course of the study.
Why Interpretation?
• Links up his findings with those of other studies, having the same
abstract principle, and thereby can predict about the concrete world
of events.
• Leads to the establishment of explanatory concepts that can serve as
a guide for future research studies.
• Locates the real significance of his research findings, hence,
researcher can better appreciate about “why his findings are”, or
“what they are”
Example (the establishment of explanatory
concepts)

Yamada et al. / Transportation Science 43(2), 2009

Example (Links up his findings )

Yamada and Zukhruf / Transportation Research Part E 75 (2015)

Example (Locates the real significance of his
research findings)

Frazila and Zukhruf / International Journal of Operations Research (2017)

General Consideration for Interpreting
• must satisfy himself that the data are appropriate, trustworthy and
adequate for drawing inferences; proper analysis has been done
through statistical methods
• must remain cautious about the errors that can possibly arise in the
process of interpreting results.
• must always keep in view that the task of interpretation is very much
intertwined with analysis and cannot be distinctly separated.
• must remember that “ideally in the course of a research study, there
should be constant interaction between initial hypothesis, empirical
observation and theoretical conceptions.”
General Consideration for Interpreting
• Must give reasonable explanations of the relations which he has
found.
• Before embarking upon final interpretation, to consult someone
having insight into the study (referee/review).
• The task of interpretation only conducted after considering all
relevant factors affecting the problem to avoid false generalization.
Validation
Hypothesis, Interpretation, Validation, and
Conclusion
Accuracy and Precision
Accuracy and Precision
Accuracy
• Accuracy is how close a measured value is to the true value.
• The ISO defines an accurate measurement has no systematic error
and no random error.
Precision
• Precision is how close the measured values are to each other
• Precision is how consistent results are when measurements are
repeated.
 Verification means checking that the data has been entered
correctly, It is a check for accuracy.

Validation means checking that the data makes sense, it checks

Validity

Verification and Validation (Data)

Verification and Validation (Data)
Verification (Model)
Verification: "Are we building the model right?“
• Is the model implemented correctly in the
computer?
• Are the input parameters and logical structure
of the model correctly represented?
Verification (Model)
Summing Model

A, B C

C= A+B
A =3 C=4
B= 1 Result verified

Sorting Model (Ascending)

M=[A, B,C,D] R

Asc(M)
R=[1,3,2,4]
M=[3, 4,1,2]
 Validation (Model)
Validation: "Are we building the right model?“
• It is utilized to determine that a model
represents the real system.
• Validation is usually achieved through the
calibration of the model, an iterative
process of comparing the model to actual
system.
• This process is repeated until model accuracy
is judged to be acceptable.
Calibration and Validation (Model)
Compare model
Initial
to reality Model

Revise
Compare
revised model
First revision
Real of model
to reality
System Revise

Compare 2nd
revised model Second
revision
to reality of model

Revise
<Iterative process of calibrating a model>
Yamada et al. / Transportation Science 43(2), 2009

Zukhruf et al. / J. JSCE, Ser. D3

(Infrastructure Planning and
Management) 2014.
Hypothesis, Interpretation, Validation,
and Conclusion

Conclusion
Conclusion
• In academic essays, introductions and conclusions are the first and
last impression of your paper – much like in real life, you should
always leave a good first and last impression to make your paper
stand out!
• Conclusions are often the most difficult part of an essay to write, and
many writers feel that they have nothing left to say after having
written the paper.
• A writer needs to keep in mind that the conclusion is often what a
reader remembers best.
Conclusion
•The introduction begins with a general approach
to the topic and then moves toward the more
specific aspect(s) of it

•The conclusion begins with the more specific

aspect(s) and moves toward the general topic of
your essay
Frazila and Zukhruf, Journal of the
Eastern Asia Society for
Transportation Studies (2015)
Frazila and Zukhruf, Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (2015)
STRESS THE IMPORTANCE GIVE THE PAPER A SENSE OF LEAVE A FINAL IMPRESSION
OF RESEARCH COMPLETENESS ON THE READER

Conclusion
Conclusion
• Answer the question "So What?"
✓ Show your readers why this paper was important. Show them that your research was
meaningful and useful.
• Synthesize, don't summarize
✓ Don't simply repeat things that were in your thesis. They have read it. Show them how the
points you made and the support and examples you used were not random, but fit together.
• Redirect your readers
✓ Give your reader something to think about, perhaps a way to use your thesis in the "real"
world. If your introduction went from general to specific, make your conclusion go from
specific to general. Think globally.
• Create a new meaning
✓ You don't have to give new information to create a new meaning. By demonstrating how your
ideas work together, you can create a new picture. Often the sum of the paper is worth more
than its parts.
"So What?" why this paper was important

Yamada and Zukhruf / Transportation Research Part E 75 (2015)

Synthesize, don't summarize Don't simply repeat things

Frazila, Zukhruf, Burhani/ IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 158 (2018)
Redirect your readers a way to use your thesis in the "real" world

Frazila and Zukhruf / MATEC Web of Conferences 147, 02002 (2018)

Create a new meaning
how your ideas work together

Zukhruf and Frazila / IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 158 (2018)
Assignment
• Create your thesis presentation within 10 pages, which includes:
✓Introduction
✓Hypothesis
✓Proposed Model (if any)
✓Data Verification and Validation (if any)
✓Model Verification and Validation (if any)
✓(expected) Conclusion

• Please submit by 10.00 WIB, 22-11-2018

 Hypothesis,

(Logical) Fallacies Interpretation,

Validation, and
Conclusion
(Logical) Fallacies
• Fallacies are arguments that lead to a mistaken or misleading
conclusion.
• Logical fallacies are often used to strengthen an argument, but if the
reader detects them the argument can backfire, and damage the
writer’s credibility
Why study logical fallacies?
• It is important to develop logical fallacy detection skills in your own
writing, as well as others’.
• Think of this as “intellectual kung-fu: the art of intellectual self
defense.” (Logical Fallacies Handlist)
Hasty Generalization
Type of Fallacies

• Definition: Making assumptions about a whole group or range of cases based on

a sample that is inadequate (usually because it is atypical or just too small).
Example:
• "My roommate said her philosophy class was hard, and the one I'm in is hard,
too. All philosophy classes must be hard!"
✓ Two people's experiences are, in this case, not enough on which to base a conclusion.
2nd Polling
• Does the case below can be included as hasty generalization?

Dengan berdasarkan kepada perhitungan pada waktu puncak

kemacetan pada hari kerja, dapat disimpulkan bahwa kemacetan di
Jakarta mengakibatkan kerugian 5 miliar dollar AS per tahunnya,
Post hoc (false cause)
• Definition: Assuming that because B comes after A, A caused B.
• Of course, sometimes one event really does cause another one that
comes later--for example, if I register for a class, and my name later
appears on the roll, it's true that the first event caused the one that
came later. But sometimes two events that seem related in time aren't
really related as cause and event. That is, correlation isn't the same
thing as causation.
• Examples: "President Jones raised taxes, and then the rate of
violent crime went up. Jones is responsible for the rise in crime.“
• The increase in taxes might or might not be one factor in the rising
crime rates, but the argument hasn't shown us that one caused the
other.
3rd Polling
• Does the case below can be included as Post hoc (false cause)?
Thank you.
Dr. Eng Febri Zukhruf
Appeal to Pity
• Definition: The appeal to pity takes place when an arguer tries to get
people to accept a conclusion by making them feel sorry for
someone.

• Example: "I know the exam is graded based on performance, but you
should give me an A. My cat has been sick, my car broke down, and
I've had a cold, so it was really hard for me to study!"
• The conclusion here is "You should give me an A." But the criteria for getting
an A have to do with learning and applying the material from the course; the
principle the arguer wants us to accept (people who have a hard week
deserve A's) is clearly unacceptable.
Missing the Point
• Definition: The premises of an argument do support a particular conclusion--but
not the conclusion that the arguer actually draws.

• Example: "The seriousness of a punishment should match the seriousness of the

crime. Right now, the punishment for drunk driving may simply be a fine. But
drunk driving is a very serious crime that can kill innocent people. So the death
penalty should be the punishment for drunk driving."
✓ The argument actually supports several conclusions-- "The punishment for drunk driving
should be very serious," in particular--but it doesn't support the claim that the death penalty,
specifically, is warranted.
Slippery Slope
• Definition: The arguer claims that a sort of chain reaction, usually ending in
some dire consequence, will take place, but there's really not enough
evidence for that assumption.
• The arguer asserts that if we take even one step onto the "slippery slope," we will
end up sliding all the way to the bottom; he or she assumes we can't stop halfway
down the hill.

• Example: "Animal experimentation reduces our respect for life. If we don't

respect life, we are likely to be more and more tolerant of violent acts like
war and murder. Soon our society will become a battlefield in which
everyone constantly fears for their lives. It will be the end of civilization. To
prevent this terrible consequence, we should make animal
experimentation illegal right now."
• Since animal experimentation has been legal for some time and civilization has not
yet ended, it seems particularly clear that this chain of events won't necessarily take
place.
Appeal to Authority
• Definition: Often we add strength to our arguments by referring to
respected sources or authorities and explaining their positions on the
issues we're discussing.
• If, however, we try to get readers to agree with us simply by impressing them with a
famous name or by appealing to a supposed authority who really isn't much of an
expert, we commit the fallacy of appeal to authority.

• Example: "We should abolish the death penalty. Many respected people,
such as actor Guy Handsome, have publicly stated their opposition to it."
• While Guy Handsome may be an authority on matters having to do with acting,
there's no particular reason why anyone should be moved by his political opinions--
he is probably no more of an authority on the death penalty than the person writing
the paper.
Straw Man
• Definition: One way of making our own arguments stronger is to
anticipate and respond in advance to the arguments that an
opponent might make. The arguer sets up a wimpy version of the
opponent’s position and tries to score point by knocking it down.

• Example: "Feminists want to ban all pornography and punish

everyone who reads it! But such harsh measures are surely
inappropriate, so the feminists are wrong: porn and its readers should
be left in peace."
• The feminist argument is made weak by being overstated--in fact, most
feminists do not propose an outright "ban" on porn or any punishment for
those who merely read it; often, they propose some restrictions on things like
child porn, or propose to allow people who are hurt by porn to sue publishers
and producers, not readers, for damages.