Usemi Survey Wave 1 Results

5th December 2019

For further information, contact:

Melissa.Baker@kantar.com
CEO Kantar, Public Division Africa
Tel. 0722 522657

Alexandra.Cronberg@kantar.com
Research Methodologist, Public Division Africa

Stephen.Aloo@Kantar.com
Director, Kantar Public Division, East Africa
Contents

•  About Kantar
•  About the Usemi Survey and methodology
•  Demographic overview of the sample
•  Political party self-identification/support
•  Uhuru’s perceived support for the next presidential candidate
•  Kenyans’ support for the next president

•  Awareness of the Building Bridges Initiative

•  Correlation analyses
•  Summary
About Kantar, Public Division in Kenya
Kantar, is the world's leading marketing data, insights and
consulting company.
Kantar’s Public Division improves decision-making in the
public realm through the application of data, insight and
consultancy. We work with governments, the public sector,
non-governmental and academic organizations, and
corporations around the world to help them deliver more
effective policy, services and communications to the public.
We work extensively on political opinion around the world, and
in Kenya. In Kenya we conducted one of the largest opinion
polls running up to the last election.
Kantar opened in Kenya in 1972 as Research Bureau Ltd,
then changed its name to Research International, then TNS.
We currently have over 200 full term and permanent research
staff in Kenya, and are the largest research agency here.
https://www.kantar.com/public/af/about
Data protection
Kantar complies fully with the EU General Data Protection
Regulation (GDPR). All data will be held on secure servers
and no personal identifiable information will be shared with
anyone outside of authorised staff within Kantar, unless
explicit consent has been given by respondents themselves.
About the “Usemi” Survey
What is the Usemi Survey?
Kantar’s Usemi Survey is a new national research initiative,
launched to allow clients and the public understand more
about Kenyans’ perceptions and attitudes.
Various research methods will be used between now and the
2022 election.
Respondents are selected from an existing pool of individuals
aged 18+ recruited as representative of each County’s
population. This pool of over 36,000 is nationally
representative and includes representative samples of each of
the 47 counties.
Wave 1 of the survey was carried out between 6th and 16th
November 2019 and used telephone interviewing
methodology.
Why is the USEMI survey more representative than some
other telephone surveys?
Respondents are randomly selected from a pool of adults who
were selected using a rigorous face-to-face household survey
using probabilistic sampling design.
In telephone surveys, not everyone will respond, and this can
introduce a bias.
However, because we hold demographic information on all
respondents in this database including those who may not
respond, we can weight the data to achieve
representativeness.
Usemi Survey Methodology
Wave 1, November, 2019
Sample size and weighting
The achieved sample size for the first wave is 1203 adults
aged 18 and older.
The sample was weighted to ensure national
representativeness, specifically taking into account gender,
age, education, working status, urban/rural area, likelihood of
voting, religion, and county.
The error margin is +/-2.5% for a 95% confidence interval.
The average questionnaire duration was 28 minutes.
Survey took place between 6th and 16th November 2019.
ESOMAR guidelines on reporting opinion research
These guidelines insist that when reporting on survey findings, journalists must
take care to keep their interpretations and statements fully consistent with the data.
Limitations and weaknesses in the poll design, its execution, and the results must
be noted in all reports and analyses.
The following information must be included in the survey report, or made available
online or in other published form: Name of organisation that conducted the
survey (Kantar), the universe effectively represented (adults aged 18+ living in
Kenya), the sample size (1203 respondents), the dates of fieldwork (6-16
November), sampling method used (probabilistic sampling drawn from a panel),
the method by which the poll was conducted (telephone), and whether
weighting was used to adjust the results (weights were applied to adjust for non-
response and county populations).
Example of how the essential information may be reported:
This survey was carried out by Kantar, using a national probabilistic sample of
1203 adults aged 18+ using telephone interviewing between 6th and 16th
November 2019, weighted to reflect non-response and county populations.
For further information, see:
https://www.esomar.org/uploads/public/knowledge-and-standards/codes-and-guidelines/ESOMAR-WAPOR-
Guideline-on-Opinion-Polls-and-Published-Surveys-August-2014.docx
Overview of demographic characteristics of the achieved (weighted) sample
The demographic characteristics of the weighted achieved sample is similar to the adult
population overall

Gender distribution

50% Male
50%
Female

Bases: Weighted base: 1182 respondents; Unweighted base: 1203 respondents

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Overview of demographic characteristics of achieved (weighted) sample
The demographic characteristics of the weighted achieved sample is similar to the adult
population overall

‘Other’ includes working for private companies, public sector organisations, and running
own business with one or more employees

Bases: Weighted base: 1182 respondents; Unweighted base: 1203 respondents

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In terms of self-identification with political parties, more than twice as many
Kenyans identify with Jubilee as they do with its nearest competitor, ODM. For
its part, NASA attracts hardly any support, while one-quarter of Kenyans prefer
not to self-identify with any party at all.

•  Over 40% of adult Kenyans support Jubilee, whereas less

than a fifth support ODM. About a quarter report not having
any party affiliation, however, which is a larger percentage
than the percentage of people who self-identify with all
opposition parties combined.

•  Party affiliation is generally lower among more educated

people, with 37% of people with more than secondary
education reporting no affiliation with any political party.

Bases: Weighted base: 1182 respondents; Unweighted base: 1203 respondents

Q: Which political party or coalition do you support or feel closest to, if any?
Regarding the President’s perceived preference in the next (2022) election
(assuming the structure of the Executive remains unchanged), somewhat more
Kenyans are uncertain about this as compared to those who believe he will
support his deputy, William Ruto.
•  Thirty-four percent of adult Kenyans believe Uhuru will
support Ruto in the next presidential election, assuming
there is no constitutional change in the structure of the
presidency. Over 40% are not sure, however.
•  Fourteen percent believe Uhuru would support Raila, and
8% believe he would support other candidates.
•  The equivalent figure for other candidates is 4% for Gideon
Moi is 4% and 1% for Matiang’i and Mudavadi.

Uhuru’s expected support for others Bases: Weighted base: 1182 respondents; Unweighted base: 1203 respondents
Percentage Q: If there is no change to the Constitution, meaning President Kenyatta must retire in
Gideon Moi 4 2022 and the next president is elected by voters, who do you think President Kenyatta
Fred Matiang'I 1 would support as the next president?
Musalia Mudavadi 1
Other individuals 3
For Kenyans themselves, 40% currently express support for Deputy President
Ruto, whereas one-in-four are undecided.

•  Forty percent of adult Kenyans support Ruto for next

president, and 16% support Raila. A quarter are undecided,
however.
•  Support for other candidates ranges between 3%
(Mudavadi) and 1% (Kalonzo).

•  Many of the ‘other’ answers referred to ‘anyone elected’,

‘anyone who is trustworthy’ or ‘authentic’.
Own support for next president
Percentage
Mudavadi 3
Gideon Moi 2
Fred Matiang'i 2
Kalonzo Musyoka 1
Other individuals 2 Bases: Weighted base: 1182 respondents; Unweighted base: 1203 respondents
Other responses 8
Q: And who would you like the next president to be?

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Less than a fifth of Kenyans cannot name the group/committee appointed by
Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga (i.e. the BBI or Building Bridges Initiatives
team) to propose the reforms necessary to implement their agreed 9 Points
(‘Hand-Shake’) Agenda.

•  Less than a fifth of adult Kenyans (18%) can name the

Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) in an unprompted question,
The BBI is the committee put in place by the President and
former PM to make recommendations on how to address
the ‘9 Point Agenda’ they released at the time of the ‘hand-
shake’ in March of last year.
•  There are stark differences by educational level. A
noticeably smaller proportion of less educated people can
name the initiative compared to more educated people. For
example, 8% of Kenyans with only primary schooling or no
education can name it, compared to 31% among Kenyans
with more than secondary education. Bases: Weighted base: 1182 respondents; Unweighted base: 1203 respondents
Q: If you know, what is the name of the team appointed by Uhuru and Raila to recommend
reforms based on their ‘hand-shake’ of March last year?
There is near-even split among Kenyans between those who do and do not
support the creation of the position of prime minister, among those who could
name the BBI
Kenyans are fairly evenly split between supporting and not
supporting the creation of PM and Leader of the Opposition
roles (49% vs 45% respectively).

Bases: Respondents who could name the BBI. Weighted base: 227 respondents;
Unweighted base: 318 respondents
Q: If you know, what is the name of the team appointed by Uhuru and Raila to recommend
reforms based on their ‘hand-shake’ of March last year?
Notwithstanding the current debate about possible amendments to the
Constitution, more than half of Kenyans either feel there is no need to change
it or are not sure about this.
•  Thirty-nine percent of adult Kenyans do not think there
ought to any change to the 2010 Constitution, and a
further 15% are not sure.
•  Among the 46% who (unprompted) reported support for
any constitution change, there is a very wide range of
views (though not necessarily constitutional in nature).
Fourteen percent mentioned that they would support a
reduction in the number of counties and/or
constituencies, 9% said they wanted changes relating to
Welfare/Services/Economic Improvement, 7%
mentioned changes relating to IEBC, and 4% said they
would support a change of the current presidential
system to a parliamentary one. Bases: Weighted base: 1182 respondents; Unweighted base: 1203 respondents

Q: At the moment, there is much discussion and debate about possible changes to the
•  Better educated people tend to be more in favour of 2010 Constitution. What change, if any, would you most strongly support, if there are
potential constitutional changes. any such changes?
Data correlation: Support for either Ruto or Raila in 2022 in terms of support
for any constitutional changes
Although relatively more people who support Raila prefer any constitutional changes
compared to those who support Ruto, the contrast is modest

•  Fifty-five percent of adult Kenyans who support Raila for

next president support any constitutional changes
compared to 42% among those who support Ruto for next
president.

Bases: Weighted base: 1182 respondents; Unweighted base: 1203 respondents

Q: And who would you like the next president to be?
Note: ‘All other responses’ include support for other presidential candidates and Don’t
knows etc.

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Data correlation: Do Kenyans support the creation of a PM role and having an
official leader of the opposition?
Half of Kenyans would support this
•  Almost half of Kenyans would support the creation of a PM
role and having an official leader of the opposition.
•  The level of support is notably higher among people who
support Raila as next president compared to people who
support Ruto (85% vs 16% respectively).

Bases: Respondents who could name the BBI. Weighted base: 227 respondents; Unweighted
base: 318 respondents

Q: If their report recommends the creation of a position of Prime Minister, perhaps with two
deputies, so that the power in the national government is shared between them and the
President, as well as having an official Leader of the Opposition in parliament, would you support
this or not support it?
Summary
Concluding remarks
•  There has been a major shift in Kenyans’ party political
alignment since the 2017 election. Specifically, while Jubilee
(whatever its internal tensions) has largely maintained its level of
public support (slightly fewer than half of all Kenyans), the
Opposition – whether in terms of individual parties or the NASA
election ‘umbrella’ – has suffered a major decline, with barely one-
in-four Kenyans self-identifying with any of its parties, let alone the
de facto coalition itself.
•  In keeping with the President’s remark one year ago that his stand
on the 2022 election will “surprise” Kenyans, there is considerable
uncertainty as to whom they expect Uhuru to support, with
even his current Deputy attracting less than one-third of all
responses to the question about this. At the same time, even if his
‘hand-shake’ with Raila Odinga sent ‘shock-waves’ across the
political landscape, barely half as many Kenyans expect him to
receive the President’s endorsement for the presidency in 2022 as
compared with those who expect the DP to receive it – assuming
there are no changes in the structure of the Executive that could
increase the number of leadership positions.
•  The current DP receives the support of more than one-third for
the presidency in 2022, but this proportion is still considerably
lower than the actual votes he would have to receive for a first-
round win (50% + 1). As such, even if the current constitutional
structure remains unchanged, there is likely to remain a very high
level of uncertainty about the ‘second Kenyatta succession’ over the
next several years. What impact such uncertainty will have on the
country’s economic growth and national security will certainly be a
concern for both Kenyans and its friends.
•  Less than one-in-five Kenyans can name the Building Bridge
Initiative (without being prompted). Further, among those who
could name it, less than half expressed preferences for any specific
changes in the current Constitution that might be included in the
recommendations contained in its as-yet-to-be-released report.
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