Blake Pruitt

Professor Malcolm Campbell

UWRT 1103 - H02

10-121/30-42/2019

“Showdown: The Human Race vs. Technology?”

A barren landscape, all that we’ve come to know, and love is gone now, man versus

machines for survival. Ruins may be all that is left for the humans, as the war has left nothing

else for them. The only human hope is through one man and his resistance, John Connor. What

I’ve just explained to you, is the opening of Terminator 2: Judgement Day, which shows the Formatted: Font: Italic

audience a take on AI dominance. In this case, an AI had become sentient and ruled that humans

must be destroyed if they seek to shut it down. This movie provides a common perspective

towards AI today, that was instilled effectively as a result of the series. Looking at the second

movie alone, it made about $524 million (MOJO) at the box office, which is about $975 million

after inflation (WESTEGG). This preconception of an apocalyptic future is only but the

nightmare situation, and it didn’t start here, one of the earliest forms of this idea was addressed

in Darwin Among the Machines.“AI, what’s that?” this phrase that came from my mother, is an

embodiment of society’s look on Artificial Intelligence (AI). Artificial Intelligence is a subject

that has been mostly ignored until recently. My mother is a prime example, at the age of 40 she

does not know a single thing about AI nor even heard about it. It seems that all people know

about AI is that it supposedly makes robots smart which will lead to the demise of humanity. Just

like the “Terminator” franchise, where robots have taken over. This outlook doesn’t start with
those movies though, this debate goes all the way back to 1863 with Samuel Butler’s “Darwin

Among the Machines.”

Before talking about “Darwin Among the Machines,” it’s only appropriate to define what Formatted: Font: Italic

AI is and the “father” of AI. According to Encyclopedia Britannica, Artificial Intelligence is,

“The ability of a digital computer or computer-controlled robot to perform tasks commonly

associated with intelligent beings.” The modern-day definition is derived from Alan Turing, who

was a cryptanalyst in 1945. (Copeland)

Turing is referenced as a man who developed many ideas for “machine learning,”

including the artificial neural network system. His contribution towards the field of AI was so

staggering that they hold a challenge for those interested in AI. The challenge is called the

“Turing test.” The “Turing test” is a challenge that tasks humans to create an AI that is to be

indiscernible from humans in intelligence. This test is carried out through three "players,” the

first being the AIcomputer, the second being a humanthe interrogator, and the third being a

human playerthe human foil. The test is carried out by having the interrogator ask questions to

both the computer and the human foil. The computer and the human answer these questions on

paper and give them back to the interrogator., Onceby the time the interrogator is done

examining the answers, they should not be able to tell which is the human and which is the

machine which. To this day, no AI has convincingly passed this test while being moderated to

this point. There beingbeing no official winner of the “Turing test,” can leads to believe that no

sentient AI has been built. But jJust because the AI isn’t sentient, doesn’t define its intelligence.

Today, AI isare “intelligent” in their own ways through programming.

Take the AI chess master “Deep Blue,” for instance. “Deep Blue,” was an AI specifically

made for chess by IBM and could take on the world champion of chess at the time, Garry
Kasparov. “Deep Blue,” wasn’t made for any other task than chess, though, it wasn’t sentient,

being that it couldn’t think like a human and knew everything that was going on around it. “Deep

Blue” only knew how to play chess., Iit only knew the algorithms and scenarios that were

programmed to respond to any move Kasparov madeat knowledge. (Copeland) “Deep Blue” is

athe prime example of how AI can be intelligent, but not sentient.it only knows what is

programmed to it Deep Blue w, it wouldn’t have been able to pass a “Turing test,.” due to its

inability to think like a human. It would only be able to analyze chess moves and calculate the

best route to a victory through the data built into it.

Considering AI intelligence raises many questions: “Will AI ever be sentient? Would

humans allow it to be so? If so, what will be AI’stheir relationship with humans? Will it lead to

human destruction, or will it lead to vast improvements in human civilizationsalvation?” No one

knows the answer to those questions, but there are many theories.

“Darwin Among the Machines,” leads to reason that this argument has existed before but

is one of the earliest written forms of the idea of “machine overlords.” Butler makes the point

that mankind has evolved to this point and has developed to be above all the other species and

tries to answer the question, “If humans are superior now, who will eventually rule over

humans?” The conclusion that Butler comes to is that humans will eventually create their own

own rulers in the form of machines. Butler goes further with this idea though and relates it to

how humans have been merciful to animals like horses, dogs, and cats, because they do not

endanger us and serve some function that is useful to humans. This idea of co-inhabitance is

what Butler insists, where these “mechanical rulers” will be merciful because they will need to

depend on us to live and have a future.

 Butler has a good understanding of looking at machinations through Darwin’s point of

view but flawed if not clarified. He seems to take the approach that these robots will be alive,

just like an animal, and therefore will need us to sustain them. If the apocalyptic scenario were to

be played out, then he would be wrong, robots would try and establish their own way and

wouldn’t need the help of humans. On the other hand, if humans establish robots with safety

standards, there would be that sort of mutualistic relationship that Butler points out. I align

myself with the latter half, the key to a prosperous future with AI starts with cautious humans.

Whether it be humanity or just the job market, humans must prepare themselves to be successful,

or they’ll be left behind.

My thinking didn’t start this way though, when askinglike my mother what her thoughts

on AI in the job market were, sheI was convinced that robots would end up replacing us. Her

thinking went above the job market, but she thought that robots would end up replacing us in

our entiretyall, or just become developed enough to replace us. I aligned myself with that

perspective as well as I was a huge science fiction fan. It took a lot of convincing from multiple

sources to assure me that robots shouldn’t evolve to the point where they do not need humans.

According to the Future of Life Institute, AI should theoretically only be dangerous if it isthey

are developed with malintent or given instructions that could be misunderstood. It’s important to

address that this is only a theory, the theoretical and actual, can be quite different. Despite this

point, though, the Future of Life Institute still makes the point that, if humans make AI safe,

there is no need to worry, especially now, where theat goal of creating sentient AI is far off into

the future. Applied to the manufacturing industry, even if new technology is introduceds itself,

self-sufficient machinesmachines that can repair and think for themselves are still a couple of

decades from now. This means that even if new forms of automation in some capacity is
invented noware introduced now, there will still be a need for human assistance with thosee jobs

and create even more jobs to help maintainenance the machines. Then when they do become

sentient, there would still be people needed to monitor and help the AI as well, creating new jobs

to replace the old ones. This phenomenon of new jobs replacing the jobs lost from automation

forms into a sort of cycle that has happened throughout history. The most popular example of an

era, where new jobs replaced old ones phased out by automation is the Industrial Revolution.

A study published done in 2019 by Mark Muro, Robert Maxim, and Jacob Whiton,

examined the cycle of manufacturing jobs impacted by automation throughout history. Muro and

his colleagues are research scientists at the Brookings Institution, which is a nonprofit public

policy organization that researches and looks to solve problems that may face society.

(Brookings) Examining eras within the United States like the Iindustrial Rrevolution, and the “IT

era,” and the new “AI era.” Muro and his colleagues studied the history where automation of

these eras and used it to predict the potential impact of the “AI erawas introduced in some form,

but new jobs were created to counter the loss of jobs.” Theose examinations lead to believe that

if there are humans are willing to work, automation will never fully force humans out of the

workplace. Muro and his teamThey believe that automation has six basic tendencies:,

“Aautomation substitutes for labor, automation also complements labor, machines substitute for

tasks, automation can increase demand, capital and labor augmentation spurs innovation, and

technological possibility is not the same as technological reality.” (Muro, Maxim, and Whiton)

This preconception of AI, possibly eliminating all jobs in a certain field, such as

manufacturing, is not say impossible, but unlikely due to these six tendencies combined with the

limiting of AI proposed by the Future of Life Institute. To help understand that, it would be best
to go through and explain what these tendencies are as described by Muro and his colleagues’

work at Brookings.

The first tendency, “Automation substitutes for labor,” mostly sets the theme for the rest

of the tendencies. This tendency brings up the point of how machines are overall better at doing

tasks at both faster speed and with greater precision than a human, all for a lower cost. The

problem that they claim to be with using machines is that they can usually only handle one task

at this moment and would not be able to take the place of a human who can do multiple tasks.

There is also a second factor that Muro and his team bring up, which is about supply and

demand. Muro and his team also bring up that with automation, it can cause a decline in wages,

which would allow for a more competitive environment, as well as producing more leads to other

adjustments in pricing.

The second tendency, “Machines substitute for tasks, not jobs,” relates to the first, talking Formatted: Indent: First line: 0.5"

about how machines cannot do everything that a human can do at this point. Muro and his crew

define a job as “a collection of tasks,” where many things must be done before a job is complete.

They go as far as to say that some tasks are not suited towards machines but instead can be done

better by a human. This leads the group of researchers to believe that machines will most likely

never be able to do every task for a job, and even in the most advanced scenarios, will need the

help of humans. This goes back to Butler’s point in Darwin Amongst the Machines, where AI

and humans will most likely need each other to prosper.

The third basic tendency, “Automation also complements labor,” is like it sounds,

whenever automation enters a workplace, in most cases the introduction of automation will make

the human an asset. The researchers exemplified this point through examples such as the “IT

era,” where calculations for budgets, running diagnostics on machines, or just storing records
were made easier, but produced more work to get done. A simpler example of how automation

complemented the labor, was with the assembly line, where the human workers could work

faster using job specialization, increasing productivity. (The Editors of Encyclopaedia

Britannica)

The fourth basic tendency, “Automation can increase demand, creating jobs,” basically

going back to the idea discussed in the first tendency. This tendency follows the supply and

demand mentality, trying to find an equilibrium, where the supply and demand are equal. This

idea could be shown through the assembly line example earlier, where a car company like Ford,

needed to make cars faster to meet the upcoming demand and lower their prices to make them

more obtainable. (The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica)

The fifth basic tendency, “Capital and labor augmentation spurs innovation,” goes into

the area of job creation. This focuses on modifying jobs to do other tasks or creating new jobs

with the assistance of technology. The example the Muro’s team comes up with is that of an

ATM, where simple transactions could be made. The case they made was that with the

establishment of the ATM seeing an increase in bank tellers. This increase was caused by the

teller’s need to do simple transactions that were filled by ATMs, so they could focus on other

aspects of banking services, that needed direct contact with a client. This change was noted to

have an effect of raising the standards of education required for the job, but ultimately increased

productivity and job opportunity. This tendency is what brings together the tendencies together,

creating new jobs to fill the places where automation has taken over, whether they be entirely

new or adaptations of old jobs.

The sixth and final tendency, “Technological possibility is not the same as technological Formatted: Indent: First line: 0"

reality,” is the main point of this paper. This tendency is straight forward in telling what it’s
about. There are many factors when trying to consider the possibilities of AI or automation in

general. Some of the possible factors to consider that Muro’s team included are: “labor

competition, regulatory and social barriers, and institutional factors, among others.” This

basically all adding back up to how humans must allow AI to be a bad influence. Meaning that

humans have the control to regulate new technology and must do so to keep humanity

prosperous.

These six basic tendencies are all beliefs coming from that have only been proven Formatted: Indent: First line: 0.5"

through history to be helpful towards humans but pay close attention to the last point, it is a very

important one. Muro and his colleagues found. The sixthat come together to conclude that the

“AI era” will be a repeat of the past. these six principles are present within all the eras involving

change with automation so far. The “IT era,” was found to at first eliminate a bunch of jobs due

to the introduction of computers, but as the personal computer was being developed, more jobs

were created in both information technologies and manufacturing. They easily replaced the jobs

with new ones, even within the same field. This group of researchers believes that the same

pattern may happen again, meaning that there will be an initial loss of jobs through replacement,

but will then eventually the market would become even better than it was before.rebound

providing new jobs to replace the old.

New jobs can come in all shapes in sizes. When relating to the new AI related toAI to

manufacturing, Tanya Anandan, a contract writer has the newest scoop on the field. Pieter

Abbeel, an electrical engineering and computer science professor at UC Berkeley hahas come up

with a solution that may bring AI a step closer to being sentienteven helps the AI to start

working. Abbeel Anandan has discovered with hiser team, how to teach AI using virtual reality.

H and humans to pilot the robots, programming them through action, then after getting a feel of
what the AI is supposed to do, it tries to replicate it. ThisIt is a slow process now, so humans still

win out when compared to these AI, in terms of how fast we learn and how fast we can move.

This breakthrough though, has led AI to a place it hasn’t really been before, which is truly

learning in thethe physical world. This could mean that robots and AI may come sooner than

expected, but I still believe that with how slow they are now and the regulations mentioned in the

Future of Life Institute’s research, it’ll be a long while before AI can replace a person much less

a part of the work place..

Devices like “Alexa”, Amazon’s smart speaker, like “Deep Blue” are not true AI like this Formatted: Indent: First line: 0.5"

one could be. Though they are classified as AI today, that is but a changing of terms as discussed

by Anandan. She believes that today’s “AI” or “smart devices,” before now, have mostly been

complex computers, storing information about the user or being able to do multiple functions.

She believes that society has begun to modify the terminology to address changing times, just

like how robots were popular, AI has begun to be the next big term. This leads to a lot of

misconceptions about what AI really is, true AI is something closer to Turing’s idea. The work

that Abbeel and his team have been working on is towards real AI.

A commonality throughout each of these sources is the fact that people must be careful in

their actions and prepare themselves for the unknown. When I mentioned that the sixth point of

Muro and his fellow researchers’ gathering and analysis of data on the cycle of AI, they also

issued this same warning. That AI is still unpredictable in its impact. This is where connecting

the Future of Life Institute’s research and the research done at Brookings is important. There is

no mistake that underestimating AI and developing it to the point where it surpasses humans as a

sentient lifeform would be dangerous. As it stands now, though, it seems that the destructive AI

that we have come to know is but a mere fantasy at this point. The lack of an AI passing the
“Turing test” and the desire want not to implement AI until proper safety factors are introduced,

leads me to believe that sentient AI will not probably come for decades.

So, I believe that with how AI is now, there is not much to worry about in the terms of

job loss. I think I’ll take Gil Press’ approach to how to handle this information, taking the

apocalyptic scenario with a grain of salt for now, and just work on pursuing higher education.

This way, if AI starts filling more jobs, I’d be in a position that wouldn’t affect me as much as

others, as well as lead to other avenues, that require more creativity.improving human education.
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