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New statistical methods for evaluation of DGA data

Article  in  IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation · May 2003

DOI: 10.1109/TDEI.2003.1194108 · Source: IEEE Xplore

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 260 Mosinski and Piotruwski: New Statistical Methods for Eualuation of DGA Data

New Statistical Methods for Evaluation of DGA Data

F. Mosinski and T. Piotrowski
Department of High Voltage
Technical University of Ladz
UI.Stefanowskiego 18/22
190-924 Ladr, Poland

ABSTRACT
This paper presents a statistical method for generation of the signals warning of a
possibility of failure in oil filled1 power transformers. The method uses the dis-
solved gas analysis (DGA) data Itn produce quantitative values warning of the be-
ginning and progress of failure. S'tatisticaltests are employed tu test the bimodality
of four standard distributions: N,ormal, Log-normal, Weibull and Gumbel. Numer-
ical examples are also presented.
Index Terms - Dissolved gas analysis, statistical method, failure, transfurm-
ers.

1 INTRODUCTION plemented it with their own unique statistical analysis

methods.

List of Symbols
Symbol Variable, Unit
2 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
P Median (for Gauss distribution), ppm The following assumptions are used in the DGA pro-
D Standard deviation. oom
~~~~~~
. I .

a Parameter of Gumbel distribution, l/ppm

cess:
MO Mode of Gumbel distribution, ppm 1. Amount of specific gas dissolved in oil is a random
XO Location parameter of Weibull distribution, ppm
Xm Scale parameter of Weibull distribution, ppm variable.
k Shape parameter of Weibull distribution 2. The statistical distribution of the specific gas in
H Heterogeneity coefficient, defined as a X ~ / X ~ $ . , - ~ , ~ it; is a
result of significance test healthy transformers is known.
X Z Hi-squared statistics
xi-,-1,- Hi-squared critical value for N I - 1 degrees of fi-eedom
~
3. The statistical distribution ofthe specific gas in faulty
and significance level a transformers is known.
N Sam& size
~~~~~~

Number of distribution function parameters 4. Reliable tools for statistical analysis of random vari-
Where ppm is pans per million. ables are available.

E XTRA high voltage (EHV) and ultra high voltage

(UHV) power transformers, because of the important
role they play in power systems, are usually a subject of
special inspections during service. A failure of a power
transformer involves not only substantial repair costs, but
also often leads to the introduction of more expensive
generation to prevent power interruptions. In order to
prevent serious financial losses, utilities put in place mon-
itoring systems and perform several measurements to help
determine the status of the transformer insulation.
Among many diagnostic methods one of the most im-
portant is the analysis of gases dissolved in oil (IIGA).
The authors developed a numerical program designed for
automatic analysis of the chromatographic data ani3 sup-
Monusc+I received on 21 Febmav, in final form 7 October 2002.
These are standard assumptions, often quoted in the
literature and were also elaborated by the authors in [l-31.
Assumption (1) is obvious and results from the fact that
measured values of gas concentration depend on many
factors such as transformer design, operation and mea-
surement conditions.
Many factors, which determine gas concentration, are
unknown or are difficult to take into consideration. It is
also obvious that gas concentrations in sound and faulty
transformers belong to different statistical populations.
Only statistical approach allows making objective distinc-
tion between these populations. In [1]moie detailed con-
siderations and limiting values of gas concentration based
on mathematical formulae were presented.
Assumptions (2) and (3) were verified by the authors by
means of statistical calculations for populations made up

1070-9878/1/$17.00 0 2003 IEEE

 IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 10, No. 2; April 2003 261

of hundreds of transformers of different types. Each time, Table 2. Measurement data and results of statistical descriptors
-
no matter what designs or manufacturers of the trans-
formers were considered, the three-parameter Weibull
method for methane (CH,).
Gas Global “ b a d
concentration p + u p + 2 u p + 3 0 probability
distribution described the analyzed populations in the best NO. PPm PPm PPm PPm %
way. The parameters of Weibull distribution were pre- 2 5 5.0 6.5 8.0 1.6
sented in [SI for transformers belonging to sound and 3 6 6.0 7.7 9.4 1.9
faulty populations. Therefore, assumptions (2) and (3) 4 29 213 32.1 42.8 6.3
5 17 21.8 31.8 41.7 4.2
could he treated as proven. 6 15 21.5 30.7 39.9 3.8
7 16 21.5 30.1 38.7 4.0
There are many statistical computer tools available on
8 24 23.1 -32.0 40.8 5.4
the market. However, the authors developed numerical’ 9 27 24.9 34.2 43.5 5.9
programs that allow fast analysis of the samples of data [61 10 26 26.0 35.3 44.7 5.8
and which perform necessary analysis [4,12-14]. There- 11 35 28.7 39.0 49.3 7.2
. 12 50 34.2 47.4 60.6 9.4
fore, we may say that assumption (4) is also met. 13 77 44.9 64.5 84.1 13.0
14 6 43.4 63.0 82.5 1.9
On the basis of the above assumptions, it is possible 15 127 61.7 94.6 126.4 18.6
using statistical analysis to develop the quantitative signals 16 138 77.8 118.2 158.5 19.7
for graduate fault warnings. 17 732 246.4 414.4 582.4 55.5

3 STATISTICAL DESCRIPTORS
METHOD At the same time, the very low global probability that the
At the beginning we analyzed the changes of statistical transformer belongs to the faulty population, as shown in
descriptors such as the mean, median, mode, variance, the last column, allows us to disregard the warning. From
standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness, shape coefficient the 71h measurement signals disappeared and appeared
and running averages, for several classes of transformers. again starting from the 141h measurement, but still at a
Then, on the basis of this analysis, partially described in low global probability. For the measurement number 17
[2,31, the mean and standard deviation were chosen as the we get a vety strong warning signal (at the level of p + 3 6 )
most suitable descriptors to be used in a more complex with a sudden increase of the probability that the trans-
method. former belongs to the faulty population. Later, the tested
In this method, the current gas concentration value is transformer failed.
compared with the limits made as a sum of average and Data in Table 2 concems concentration of methane
one, two or three standard deviations ( p + 6 , p + 2 & /I (CH,) and gives similar information to that obtained from
+ 3 6 ) , respectively. This method is similar to statistical Table 1. The difference is that we get a very strong warn-
process control methods. The above method is illustrated ing signal (at the level of @ + 3 6 ) at the lSth measure-
in Table 1. In Table 1 the weak warning sienals (on the ment and at lower global
. probability.
- Y
level I*. + 6 ) for carbon monoxide (CO) can be observed
starting from the 31d measurement (it should be noted that 4 TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE METHOD
that method is applicable for 2 and more measurements). As we mentioned above, a gas concentration in the oil
is a random variable. Statistical distribution of a particular
gas in a single transformer is called local distribution to
Table 1 . Measurement data and results of statistical descriptors
method far carbon monoxide (COX
differentiate it from the global distribution, which is ap-
Gas Global “bad” plied for gas concentrations obtained from many different
concentration p + u p + 2 c p + 3 u probability transformers. Local and global distributions for a particu-
No. ppm ppm ppm ppm 70 lar gas could be found from two different populations. The
2 15 15.0 17.0 19.0 6.2 first is applied for gas concentration in sound trans-
3 34 30.0 40.1 50.1 12.2
4 59.8 85.5 111.3 22.8
formeds) and the other for gas concentration in faulty
5 2 7 85.8 123.0 160.2 29.4 one(s).
6 112 100.5 141.9 183.3 30.4
7 79 100.9 139.8 178.8 23.5
If the number of measurements is sufficient, at least 5,
8 103 106.0 144.8 183.7 28.6 because a three-parameter Weibull distribution should
9 93 107.5 145.0 182.6 26.6 have a nonzero number of degrees of freedom, then it is
10 93 108.6 144.8 181.1 26.6
11 104 110.9 146.7 182.4 28.8
possible to estimate the distribution for the local gas con-
12 83 110.1 144.4 178.7 24.4 centrations: Obviously, the older the transformer, the more
13 84 109.5 142.5 175.5 24.6 measurement data is available and the more reliable are
14 113 112.3 145.4 178.6 30.6
15 143 119.1 155.0 190.8 36.0
the results of the statistical analysis
16 158 127.1 166.2 205.3 38.6 On this basis, starting from the SIh measurement it is
17 533 225.5 336.9 448.3 75.0
possible to estimate parameters of the statistical distribu-
 262 Mosinski and Piotrowski: New Statistical Methods for Eualuation of DGA Data

tion and test the hypothesis of conformity. If the trans-

former were fault free, then measured particular gas con-
centrations would belong to the, called, “good”or “sound”
population. If faults occurred, then measured gas samples
would be mixed with those belonging to the, called, “bad”
or “fault” population. It should be noted that the time
between successive measurements plays no role in this
method.
The main idea of the proposed method involves check-
ing the conformity between gas samples distribution and
one of the theoretical distributions. Tests are performed
after each measurement for a particular gas on the same
significance level. The measure of the conformity is the
value of the heterogeneity coefficient H. The heterogene-
ityxoefficient H is defined as a quotient of value o f test
statistic xz and critical value for the same theoretical
statistic xi-,-,,,.The result of the test of significance is
negative if the value of H is greater than 1 . In the case of
mixed populations of gas concentrations (some samples
belong to a “good”population, and some to a “bad”one),
the distributions are combined and the resultant distribu-
tion is bimodal. Therefore, the significance test should give
negative result ( H > 1).
The theoretical distributions differ in the domain of the
random variables. For instance, normal distribution has
domain bilaterally unrestricted and lognormal distribution
has domain left-hand restricted at zero and right-hand un-
restricted. In spite of this, both functions are used to de-
scribe the distribution of gas concentrations in oil, even
though the measured values are non-negative. This prop-
erty causes that distributions in case of mlxed population
--
Os 10 I5 20 25
No of samples
Figure 1. Heterogeneity coefficient as a result of significance test
far the Weibull distribution far the acetylene (C,H,) versus number
of samples (from column 12 ai Table 3).
of gas concentrations become bimodal not at the same
moment in time.
The authors propose to use four distribution functions:
that is, Normal, Log-normal, Weibull and Gumbel.
To illustrate the method, we present three examples
(Table 3 and Figures 1 to 3 ) involving three failed trans-
formers. The analysis was performed for significance level
equal to 0.05 and using the maximum likelihood method
[4,12,131 to estimate of the distribution function parame-
ters and to realize a significance test.
An example from Table 3 and Figure 1 shows that a
warning signal occurred when acetylene (C,H,) reached
26 ppm and the Weibull distribution lost its mono-modal-
ity. Other distributions met the requirements of test of
significance and the values of H were very small. The
transformer considered in this example was diagnosed as
working with fault for a long period of time. The cause
(but not the effect) of a fault was known. During utiliza-

Table 3. Measurement data and rrsults of test significance method for acetylene (C,H,).
Gas Gumbel Global “bad“
concentration Gauss distribution distribution Weibull distribution probability
H MO H Xo Xm k H
NO. PPm P.”. %
~

1 0.1 0.1
2 0.1 0.1
3 20.7 11.1
4 0.1 0.1
5 20.4 5.0 23.0 0.198 0.046 13.4 0.197 11.0
6 0.1 0.2 25.7 0.179 0.1139 9.5 0.178 0.1
7 22.0 4.2 24.5 0.232 0.043 13.2 0.228 1.8 0.13 0.338 11.7
8 24.0 7.5 23.3 0.293 0.048 16.0 0.279 3.6 0.15 0.445 12.6
9 29.0 10.5 22.4 0.298 0.053 18.7 0.259 6.2 0.16 0.567 14.7
10 0.1 7.4 24.3 0.292 0.046 16.5 0.258 3.0 0.14 0.550 0.1
11 22.0 9.2 24.5 0.474 0.052 17.6 0.423 4.2 0.16 0.863 11.7
12 0.1 8.2 21.8 0.492 0.052 16.5 0.441 0 3.0 0.15 0.818 0.1
13 0.1 7.4 21.2 0.539 0.052 15.6 0.487 0 2.4 0.15 0.792 0.1
14 26.0 9.1 20.6 0.574 0.056 17.1 0.503 0 3.4 0.16 0.911 13.4
15 26.0 10.7 20.5 0.705 0.059 18.5 0.619 0 5.8 0.17 1.124 13.4
16 27.0 11.9 19.6 0.785 0.1163 19.5 0.674 0 5.8 0.17 1323 13.9
17 6.0 11.3 19.1 0.656 0.062 18.6 0.564 0 6.8 0.21 1.297 3.9
18 68.0 12.4 24.8 0.686 0.035 23.3 0.956 0 8.4 0.22 13115 28.5
19 57.0 14.2 27.6 0.509 0.032 25.4 0.665 0 10.1 0.23 1346 24 9
20 113.0 15.5 39.1 0.850 0.021 34.3 1.171 0 12.6 0.26 1.294 40.7
21 93.0 18.1 45.2 0.621 0.019 36.7 0.827 0 15.1 0.28 1.292 35.6
22 87.0 21.1 18.3 0.531 0.l119 40.8 0.658 0 17.7 0.29 13111 34.0
__ ~ ~ ~ ~
IEEE Transactions on Dielechics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 10, No. 2; April 2003 263

tion the transformer oil was degassed several times, which

is indicated by the acetylene values at the level of.0.l ppm.
During the repairs it turned out that the transformer could
have worked with this failure. A statistical analysis, which
gives a warning signal with probability of failure less than
40%, could help to take the risk of further utilization of
this transformer.

" 5 10 15 20 25 30 An example in Figure 2 was chosen from many ana-

NO of samples lyzed cases for its exceptionality. It was obsewed for the
Figure 2. Heterogeneity coefficient as a result of significance test hydrogen gas (H,) that the global probability of the trans-
for the Weibull distribution for the hydrogen (H,) vs number of sam-
ples.
former failure is already very high at the 5'h measurement
and is equal to 93.4%. This means that first possible sta-
tistical analysis concerns the gas concentrations belong to
the faulty transformer population. The test of significance
method clearly indicates danger of failure by the increas-
ing value of the heterogeneity coefficient H for the
Weibull distribution (Figure 2). This danger doesn't disap-
pear even after oil degassing. The last three points in Fig-
ure 2 represent the measurements performed after repair

0.5 '
10
I
15
I
20
No of samples
I
25
I
30
and show that the transformer in this case should he
treated as a new unit because the value of the gas concen-
trations are the same at 0.1 ppm,
Figure 3. Heterogeneity coefficient as a result of significance test The example in Figures 3 and 4 concerns a transformer
far the Log,normal distribution for the ethane (C,H,) versus num-
ber of samples; the 30th measurement was performed after trans- for which every measurement gave vety low concentration
former failure. values of the selected gases. But the new analytical method

Table 4. Results of the quotients (only quotients with statistical irreaularities) and H (for Weibull distribution) calculations far the same case

C=H2/CH, F=C,H,/C,H,
. Quotient Quotient Quotient Quotient Quotient Quotient
NO. c H F. H L4
_______
H I H G H E H
1 n ns nom 1.000 os00 20 2.000
2 0.02 0.033 0.600 0.200 50 3.400
3 0.017 0.050 0.333 0.167 60 4.941
4 0.0034. - 0.013 0.276 - 0.241 ~

2911 - 13.158 -
5 0.294 0.1076 0.020 - 0.294 0.2070 0.353 0.0079 3.4 0.0851 12.411 0.1040
6 0.2 0.0713 0.025 0.0082 0.267 0.0206 0.267 0.0784 5 0.0982 9.143 0.0814
7 0.125 0.0482 0.025 0.0655 0.250 0.0689 n.zo 0.0737 8 0.0289 12.405 0.1803
8 0.083 0.0286 0.250 0.6909 0.167 0.2322 0.292 0.1224 12 0.0403 14.699 0.2286
9 0.074 0.0401 0.014 0.5318 0.259 0.3380 0.296 0.1239 13.5 0.3091 18.118 0.2097
in 0.19 0.0686 0.017 0.5084 0.231 0.3782 0.269 0.2011 5.2 0.3458 16.387 0.2546
11 0.0857 0.0946 0.250 0.3718 0.114 0.3850 0.286 0.2823 11.7 0.4894 16.183 0.3321
12 0.23 0.1200 0.056 0.3677 0.419 0.3321 0.233 0.2982 4.3 0.3349 23.185 0.2838
13 0.15 0.1443 0.056 0.1286 0.450 0.2862 0.275 0.4061 6.7 0.5968 21.605 0.2943
14 0.08 0.1630 0.048 0.4142 0.420 0.2771 0.240 0.4359 12.5 0.7318 19.771 0.3243
15 0.05 0.1106 0.0006. 0.5446 0.288 0.3610 0.153 0.4114 19.7 0.2886 19.611 0.3854
16 0.068 0.1359 0.037 0.5894 0.365 0.4361 0.189 0.3235 14.8 0.3783 21.017 0.4408
17 0.1 0.1515 0.024 0.6494 0.472 0.3572 0.202 0.2952 9.9 0.4672 20.8116 0.5166
18 0.077 0.2025 0.0002 0.7937 0.571 0.3236 0.253 0.3928 13 0.7641 21.976 0.5817
19 11.065 0.2267 0.025 0.9446 0.519 0.2921 0.208 0.3386 15.4 0.906 18.881 0.6705
20 0.089 0.2829 0.034 1.0114 0.644 0.2061 0.278 0.4007 11.25 1.5935 22.979 0.7205
21 0.039 0.2497 0.0002 1.0257 0.373 0.2444 0.157 0.3787 25.5 0.8740 24.250 0.7460
22 I 0.7380 0.017 1.0926 9.667 1.7283 4.333 2.0988 1 1.1097 20.973 0.8557
23 0.056 0.7679 0.0002 1.0716 0.472 2.2767 0.200 1.9426 17.8 1.0958 22.812 0.9386
24 0.07 0.8688 0.m 1.1494 0.441 2.0687 0.205 1.9075 14.1 1.2699 16.826 0.9707
25 0.07 1.0281 0.018 1.2349 0.438 2.5568 0.203 2.4863 12.8 1.4692 23.820 1.0159
26 0.03 0.9433 0.0016 1.0342 0.496 2.2677 0.228 2.0132 31.75 1.4228 16.874 1.0522
27 0.057 1.2798 0.0002 1.0371 0.398 2.4369 0.187 2.5807 17.57 1.4980 17.903 1.1156
28 0.058 1.4521 0.0015 0.89~1 0.486 2.5779 0.232 2.2990 17.25 1.5628 16.405 1.1509
29 0.0797 1.4465 0.016 0.9704 0.457 >5 0.217 2.7845 12.5 1.7751 24.553 1.1680
30 1.175 2.1104 0.792 0.9030 0.918 ,z 0.138 2.7601 0.851 2.2572 4.844 1.1260
~
~
264 Mosinski and Piotrowski: New Statistical Methods for Evaluation of DGA Data
I I I
I5 20 25
No of ramplcr
Figure 4. Heterogeneity coefficients as a result of significance test
far the Log-normal (solid), Gumbel (dotted) and Weibull (dashed)
distributions for total combustible gases (TCG) VCISUS number of
samples; the 30Ih measurement was performed after tran8;former
failure.
described here signals irregularities. Figure 3 shows data
for ethane (C,H,) and Figure 4 shows data for total'com-
bustible gases (TCG). Statistical analysis perform<:d for
TCG indicates first problems 5 years before and for ethane
7 months before the transformer failure occurred. If the
owner of the transformer utilized this information, he
would he able to shorten periods between measurements
and could potentially avoid transformer failure. All other
DGA methods failed because of a very low gas concentra-
tion.
5 POPULATION OF THE RATIOS O'F
DISSOLVED GASES
Table 4 shows the characteristic ratios used in various
diagnostic methods. The numbers in hold represent the
case when x 2 statistics for the particular ratios p ~ p u l a -
tion exceeding the critical values of xi-,-
,,a (H> ).I with
the significance level a = 0.05. We can observe the signs
of irregularities in the investigated populations from the
sample number 20 for the ratios F and G , from the sam-
ple number 22'for ratios IA a n d ' J , and from the sample
number 25 for the ratios C and E. These values increase
with subsequent sample numbers, indicating increasing
statistical irregularity, until the transformer failure occurs
at sample number 30. We can also observe that the value
of the variable H increases and exceeds the value of 5 for
the ratio IA, a value of 'almost 3 for the ratio J and a
value somewhat greater than 2 for the ratios C and G.
The last two ratios are the inverses of each other.
The analysis of various ratios allows drawing some con-
clusions regarding .the slow degradation process i n , the
transformer insulation. The first signal was obtainmed for
the sample'number 20 from ratios G and F. According to
the Japanese diagnostic method [7, 101, this may indicate
partial discharges with very small energy.
The ratios 01 and J yield the warning signal from the
sample number 22 onwards. According to the Russian di-
agnostic method [91, this indicates partial discharges in the
paper insulation.
An additional signal was obtained from the sample
number 25 given by the ratios C and E . These ratios indi-
cate a degradation of cellulose resulting from partial dis-
charges.
6 SUMMARY
1. New statistical methods useful in DGA process and
30
examples of their utilization were presented.
2. Proposed statistical methods utilized all gathered
measurements of gases dissolved in oil and not only the
last one or two as conventionally used in DGA methods.
The reliability of the results of the statistical analysis in-
creases with the age of the transformer (more data are
available). No such regularity can be observed for other
methods.
3. Statistical descriptors method requires very simple
calculations and a minimal knowledge of statistics. Test of
significance method requires specialized numerical pro-
gram and much deeper knowledge of statistics..
4. The proposed method of analyzing the DGA signals,
which is based on statistical test of significance, may result
in a warning at an early stage of a problem.
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View publication stats
Val. 10, No. 2; April 2003 265
Franciszek Mosinski was bom in Widen.
Poland, in 1946. He studied Electrical Engi-
neering at the Technical University of LodG
where he received the MSc., Ph.D. and
DrSc. degrees in 1972, 1976 and 1984, re-
spectively. In 1984 and 2Wl he became As-
sistant Professor and Professor, respectively.
His main fields of interest are electrical
withstand voltage and diagnostics of electri-
cal insulation of power transformen, appli-
cation of mathemati cal statistics and the influence of electrical
facilities on environinent. Prof. Marinski is author of about 120
publications, including papers. books and monographs. He is also
author and co-author of about 90 unpublished expertise, technical
elaborates and numerical programs.
Tamaaz F’iotmwski was born in Lo& Pol-
and, in 1965. He studied Electrical Engi-
neering at the Technical University of Lodz,
where he received the M.Sc. and Ph.D. de-
, grees in’ 1990 and 2001, respectively. His
main field of interest is diagnostics of elec-
trical insulation of power transformers and
utilization of the IT in electrical engineer-
ing.