104 Highway Engineering

certain level of congestion experienced. If, however, the highest hourly flow was
utilised, while no overcapacity will be experienced, the junction will operate at
well below its capacity for a large proportion of the time, thus making such a
design economically undesirable with its scale also having possible negative envi-
ronmental effects due to the intrusion resulting from its sheer scale. (If the junc-
tion is already in existence then the DRF can be determined by manual counts
noting both the composition of the traffic and all turning movements.)

5.2 Deriving design reference flows from baseline traffic figures

5.2.1 Existing junctions

At existing junctions, it will be possible to directly estimate peak hour and daily
traffic flows together with all turning movements. In order for the measurements
to be as representative as possible of general peak flow levels, it is desirable to
take them during a normal weekday (Monday to Thursday) within a neutral
month (April, May, June, September or October). Factoring up the observed
morning and evening peak hour flows using indices given in the National Road
Traffic Forecasts can lead to the derivation of DRFs for the design year (nor-
mally 15 years after opening). Flow patterns and turning proportions observed
in the base year can be extrapolated in order to predict future patterns of
movement.

5.2.2 New junctions

In a situation where a junction is being designed for a new road or where flow
patterns through an existing junction are predicted to change significantly
because of changes to the general network, flows must be derived by use of a
traffic modelling process which will generate estimates of 12, 16 or 24 hour link
flows for a future chosen design year. AADT flows are then obtained by fac-
toring the 12, 16 or 24 hour flows. The AAHT is then calculated (AADT ∏ 24)
and then factored to represent the appropriate highest hourly flow using derived
factors. Tidal flow is then taken into consideration; generally a 60/40 split in
favour of the peak hour direction is assumed. Turning proportions are also
guesstimated so that the junction can be designed.

5.2.3 Short-term variations in flow

Traffic does not usually arrive at a junction at a uniform or constant rate. During
certain periods, traffic may arrive at a rate higher than the DRF, at other
periods lower. If the junction analysis for a priority junction/roundabout is