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1
Member, the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh
AVP, Financial Administration Division, IBBL, HO
Former;
Faculty Member, Islami Bank Training and Research Academy
Company Secretary, Al-Arafah Islami Bank Ltd.
Director (Finance and Accounts), the Dhaka Jute Mills Ltd.
Web: www.ksomar.hpage.com, Email: ksfaruk@gmail.com
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Problems and Difficulties in Capital Budgeting
Capital Budgeting may also be defined as "The decision making process by which a firm evaluates the
purchase of major fixed assets. It involves firm's decision to invest its current funds for addition, disposition,
modification and replacement of fixed assets.
"Capital budgeting is concerned with allocation of the firm's scarce financial resources among the available
market opportunities. The consideration of investment opportunities involves the comparison of the expected
future streams of earnings from a project with immediate and subsequent streams of expenditure for it". The
problems in capital budgeting decisions may be as follows:
a) Future uncertainty: Capital budgeting decisions involve long term commitments. However there is lot
of uncertainty in the long term. The uncertainty may be with reference to cost of the project, future expected
returns, future competition, legal provisions, political situation etc.
b) Time Element: The implications of a Capital Budgeting decision are scattered over a long period. The
cost and the benefits of a decision may occur at different points of time. The cost of a project is incurred
immediately. However, the investment is recovered over a number of years. The future benefits have to be
adjusted to make them comparable with the cost. Longer the time period involved, greater would be the
uncertainty.
c) Difficulty in Quantification of impact: The finance manager may face difficulties in measuring the
cost and benefits of projects in quantitative terms.
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If you are choosing option A, your future value will be Tk. 10,000 plus any interest acquired over the three
years. The future value for option B, on the other hand, would only be Tk. 10,000. But stay tuned to find out
how to calculate exactly how much more option A is worth, compared to option B.
Future Value Basics
If you choose option A and invest the total amount at a simple annual rate of 4.5%, the future value of your
investment at the end of the first year is Tk.10,450, which of course is calculated by multiplying the principal
amount of Tk.10,000 by the interest rate of 4.5% and then adding the interest gained to the principal amount:
Future value of investment at end of first year:
= (Tk.10,000 x 0.045) + Tk.10,000
= Tk.10,450
If the Tk. 10,450 left in your investment account at the end of the first year is left untouched and you
invested it at 4.5% for another year, how much would you have? To calculate this, you would take the
Tk.10,450 and multiply it again by 1.045 (0.045 +1). At the end of two years, you would have Tk.10,920:
Future value of investment at end of second
year:
= Tk.10,450 x (1+0.045)
= Tk.10,920.25
After three years it will be
This calculation shows us that we don't need to calculate the future value after the first year, then the second
year, then the third year, and so on. If you know how many years you would like to hold a present amount of
money in an investment, the future value of that amount is calculated by the following equation:
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So the present value of a future payment of Tk.10,000 is worth Tk.8,762.97 today if interest rates are 4.5%
per year. In other words, choosing option B is like taking Tk.8,762.97 now and then investing it for three
years.
Conclusion
These calculations demonstrate that time literally is money - the value of the money you have now is not the
same as it will be in the future and vice versa. So, it is important to know how to calculate the time value of
money so that you can distinguish between the worth of investments that offer you returns at different times
Discounted cash flow (DCF)
The DCF is a cash flow summary that has been adjusted to reflect the time value of money. It is an important
criterion in evaluating or comparing investments or purchases; other things being equal, the purchase or
investment associated with the larger DCF is the better decision. Almost every manager trained in finance
will ask to see cash flows on a discounted and non-discounted basis.
DCF makes use of the Present Value concept, the idea that money you have now should be valued more than
an identical amount you would receive in the future, Why? The money you have now you could (in
principle) invests now, and gain return or interest, between now and the future time. Money you will not
have until some future time cannot be used now. Therefore, the future money’s value is Discounted in
financial evaluation, to reflect its lesser value.
What that future money is worth today is called its Present Value, and what it will be worth when it finally
arrives in the future is called not surprisingly its Future Value. Just how much present value should be
discounted from future value is determined by two things: the amount of time between now and future
payment, and an interest rate. (For rough estimates, think of the interest rate as the return rate we would
expect if we had the money now and invested it). For a future payment coming in one year:
Now consider two competing investments in computer equipment. Each calls for an initial cash outlay of Tk.
100 million, and each returns a total a Tk. 200 m over the next 5 years making net gain of Tk. 100 m. But the
timing of the returns is different, as shown in the table below (Case A and Case B), and therefore the present
value of each year’s return is different. The sum of each investment’s present values is called the Discounted
Cash flow, or DCF. Using a 10% interest rate again, we find:
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DCF models are powerful, but they do have shortcomings. DCF is merely a mechanical valuation tool, which
makes it subject to the axiom "garbage in, garbage out". Small changes in inputs can result in large changes
in the value of a company. Instead of trying to project the cash flows to infinity, a terminal value approach is
often used. A simple annuity is used to estimate the terminal value past 10 years, for example. This is done
because it is harder to come to a realistic estimate of the cash flows as time goes on.
Payback Period
The payback period is the amount of time needed for an investment to generate cash flows to recover its
initial costs. i.e. The length of time required to recover the cost of an investment.
Calculated as:
All other things being equal, the better investment is the one with the shorter payback period.
For example, if a project cost Tk. 100,000 and was expected to return Tk. 20,000 annually, the payback
period would be Tk. 100,000 / Tk. 20,000, or five years.
There are two main problems with the payback period method:
1) It ignores any benefits that occur after the payback period and, therefore, does not measure profitability.
2) It ignores the time value of money.
Because of these reasons, other methods of capital budgeting like net present value, internal rate of return or
discounted cash flow are generally preferred.
The payback period method has some serious shortcomings though. It is calculated by simply adding up the
future cash flows. There is no discounting of cash flows, so the time value of money is ignored. Without
discounting the future cash flows, your project will look much more attractive than it really is. Not only will
the project look more attractive, but since there is no required rate of return used, the risk level of the project
is never captured. This means that a very risky project is treated the same as a low risk project. The biggest
shortcoming with the payback method is that there is no economic rationale for determining the correct
cutoff period. An arbitrary cutoff period must be chosen, so you need to decide whether 2 years is
acceptable, or 4 years, or 5, etc. The payback period also tends to bias the user toward short term
investments as it ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff. A project that takes a few years to get up to speed
and then creates phenomenal returns would be rejected strictly on its cash flow profile.
With all of the shortcomings of the payback period method, it is easy to see why you should put very little
weight on the analysis results other than as a very general guide when looking at two fairly comparable
projects. If payback period is a valuation metric that your organization tends to look at, you can and should
perform a discounted payback period analysis where you determine your discount rate and discount the
future cash flows before performing the payback analysis. This would eliminate the some of the
shortcomings mentioned above, but very few individuals ever perform such an analysis in practice. Use the
discounted payback method only as a quick and dirty valuation method to value a project on the “back of an
envelope” and as just another valuation metric in conjunction with the others mentioned here. Do not base
your accept/reject decision upon it.
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The payback pariod for investment A is 2 years, while investment B requires 3.80 years. In the latter case,
we recover Tk. 300,000.00 in the first 3 years. we need for another Tk. 200,000.00 to recover the Taka 5 lac
Investment. Since the fourth year has a total inflow of Tk. 2.50 lac, Tk. 2.00 lac represent 0.8 (2.00/2.50) if
that value. Thus, the payback period for Investment B is 3.8 Years.
Where
t - the time of the cash flow
N - the total time of the project
r - the discount rate (the rate of return that could be earned on an investment in the
financial markets with similar risk.)
Ct - the net cash flow (the amount of cash) at time t (for educational purposes, C0
is commonly placed to the left of the sum to emphasize its role as the initial
investment.)
The Discount Rate
The rate used to discount future cash flows to their present values is a key variable of this process. A firm's
weighted average cost of capital (after tax) is often used, but many people believe that it is appropriate to use
higher discount rates to adjust for risk for riskier projects. A variable discount rate with higher rates applied
to cash flows occurring further along the time span might be used to reflect the yield curve premium for
long-term debt.
In financial theory, if there is a choice between two mutually exclusive alternatives, the one yielding the
higher NPV should be selected. The following sums up the NPVs in various situations.
If... It means... Then...
NPV the investment would
the project may be accepted
>0 add value to the firm
the investment would
NPV
subtract value from the the project should be rejected
<0
firm
We should be indifferent in the decision whether to accept or reject the
the investment would
NPV project. This project adds no monetary value. Decision should be based on
neither gain nor lose
=0 other criteria, e.g. strategic positioning or other factors not explicitly
value for the firm
included in the calculation.
However, NPV = 0 does not mean that a project is only expected to break even, in the sense of undiscounted
profit or loss (earnings). It will show net total positive cash flow and earnings over its life.
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Example-1
X corporation must decide whether to introduce a new product line. The new product will have startup costs,
operational costs, and incoming cash flows over six years. This project will have an immediate (t=0) cash
outflow of Tk. 100,000 (which might include machinery, and employee training costs). Other cash outflows
for years 1-6 are expected to be Tk. 5,000 per year. Cash inflows are expected to be Tk. 30,000 per year for
years 1-6. All cash flows are after-tax, and there are no cash flows expected after year 6. The required rate of
return is 10%. The present value (PV) can be calculated for each year:
T=0 -Tk. 100,000/ 1.100 = -Tk. 100,000 PV.
T=1 (Tk. 30,000 - Tk. 5,000) / 1.101 = Tk. 22,725 PV.
T=2 (Tk. 30,000 - Tk. 5,000) / 1.102 = Tk. 20,650 PV.
T=3 (Tk. 30,000 - Tk. 5,000) / 1.103 = Tk. 18,775 PV.
T=4 (Tk. 30,000 - Tk. 5,000) / 1.104 = Tk. 17,075 PV.
T=5 (Tk. 30,000 - Tk. 5,000) / 1.105 = Tk. 15,525 PV.
T=6 (Tk. 30,000 - Tk. 5,000) / 1.106 = Tk. 14,100 PV.
The sum of all these present values is the net present value, which equals Tk. 8,850. Since the NPV is
greater than zero, the corporation should invest in the project.
Example-2
Cash flow
Year
Investment -A Investment -B
0 (500,000.00) (500,000.00)
1 250,000 X .909 = 227,250 75,000 X .909 = 68,175
2 250,000 X .826 = 206,500 100,000 X .826 = 82,600
3 100,000 X .751 = 72,100 125,000 X .751 = 93,875
4 250,000 X .683 = 170,750
5 250,000 X .621 = 155,250
PV of inflows = 508,850 PV of inflows = 570,650
PV of outflows 500,000 PV of outflows 500,000.00
NPV = 8,850.00 NPV = 70,650.00
Selection: Higher net present value: Investment B
Benefit-Cost Ration
The ratio of total present benefits ( B ) to total present costs ( C ), sometimes used in cost-benefit analysis
with the assumption that a project is worthwhile if and only if B / C is greater than 1, but this ratio leads to
ambiguity.
A Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) is an indicator, used in the formal discipline of cost-benefit analysis, that
attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project or proposal. A BCR is the ratio of the
benefits of a project or proposal, expressed in monetary terms, relative to its costs, also expressed in
monetary terms. All benefits and costs should be expressed in discounted present values.
Prior to erecting a new plant or taking on a new project, prudent managers will conduct a cost-benefit
analysis as a means of evaluating all of the potential costs and revenues that may be generated if the
project is completed. The outcome of the analysis will determine whether the project is financially feasible,
or if another project should be pursued.
It is some times called profitability index.
PV of cash inflows
BCR =
Initial Investment
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Decision rules:
Should we expect to earn at least Accept the
If the NPV is: Benefits vs. Costs
our minimum rate of return? investment?
Positive Benefits > Costs Yes, more than Accept
Zero Benefits = Costs Exactly equal to Indifferent
Negative Benefits < Costs No, less than Reject
Notice that, if the NPV is positive, it says that the company expects to receive benefits that are large enough
to repay the company for (1) the asset's cost, (2) the cost of financing the project, and (3) a rate of return that
adequately compensates the company for the risk found in the cash flow estimates. If the NPV is negative,
the benefits are not large enough to cover all three of the above, and therefore the project should be rejected.
Example-2
Cash flow
Year
Investment -A Investment -B
0 (500,000.00) (500,000.00)
1 250,000 X .909 = 227,250 75,000 X .909 = 68,175
2 250,000 X .826 = 206,500 100,000 X .826 = 82,600
3 100,000 X .751 = 72,100 125,000 X .751 = 93,875
4 250,000 X .683 = 170,750
5 250,000 X .621 = 155,250
PV of inflows = 508,850 PV of inflows = 570,650
PV of outflows 500,000 PV of outflows 500,000.00
Investment -A Investment -B
508,850 570,650
BCR = = 1.018 = 1.142
500,000 500,000
Decision: BCR is higher for investment B than investment A, so, Investment B is accepted.
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used to maximize the overall NPV of the firm. Some managers find it intuitively more appealing to evaluate
investments in terms of percentage rates of return than dollars of NPV.
Calculation of IRR with the help of Trial and error method
IRR can also be calculated by Trial and error method if the data satisfy the following conditions
outflow take place one time
inflows are constant as per interval and amount
Time period involve is significant so that the other methods become complicated
for example in a case there is a project with initial investment of Tk.100 (year 0) and annual cash inflows of
Tk.20 at the end of each year till 10th year now here one want to calculate the IRR. IRR is the rate with
which if all the cash inflows are discounted then the resultant figure will be equal to initial investment so
here we use Trail and error method in this method one formula for aggression is used That is as below
Here as we will calculate IRR at lower rate that will be in positive and NPV at Higher rate will negative and
as we will put this value in NPV at lower rate - NPV at Higher rate the Minus sign will become positive as
NPV at Higher rate also contain negative sign with it so the 2nd important thing is to guess higher rate and
lower rate like in the case given above suppose 10% as lower rate and 20% as higher rate NPV@10% will be
22.89 and NPV@20% will be -16.15 and at last if we apply the formula above we will get 15% that is IRR
of the project
Now if all the inflows are discounted @15% the resultant figure will be 100 as the Present value factor
@15% for 10years is 5.0 and 20*5 = Tk.100 this method is also called Hit and Trail Method
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Example:
A company is considering an investment proposal to install new milling controls at a cost of Tk. 50,000.00.
The facility has a life expectancy of 5 years and no salvage value. The tax rate is 35%. Assume the firm uses
straight line depreciation and the same is allowed for tax purpose. The estimated cash flow before
depreciation and tax from the investment proposal are as follows:
Year CTBT
1 10,000
2 10,692
3 12,769
4 13,462
5 20,385
Compute; (i) Payback period, (ii) IRR (iii) NPV at 10% discount rate (iv) Profitability index at 10% discount rate.
Solutions:
Year CFBT Depreciation Profits BT Taxes (.35) EAT CFAT
1 10,000 10,000 0 0 0 10,000
2 10,692 10,000 692 242 450 10,450
3 12,769 10,000 2769 696 1800 11,800
4 13,462 10,000 3462 1212 2250 12,250
5 20,385 10,000 10385 3635 6750 16,750
2,250
X 100 = 9 %
Average Rate of Return(ARR) = 25000
NPVa
X a-b
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) = A+ NPVa-NPVb
866
X 1= 6.58
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) = 6+ 1475
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(iv) Net present Value (NPV)
Year CFAT PVf@.10 Total PV
1 10,000 0.909 9,090
2 10,450 0.826 8,632
3 11,800 0.751 8,862
4 12,250 0.683 8,367
5 16,750 0.621 10,401
Total PV 45,352
Initial outlay 50,000
NPV (4648)
(v)
PV of cash inflow
Profitability Index = PV of cash inflow
45,352
= 0.907
Profitability Index = 50,000
Year Question
October-2011
(a) What is meant by Internal Rate of Return?
(b) The Alif company has two investment opportunities, Zim and Mim. The relevant cash flows of each
opportunity are given below:
Initial Investment ( Io) Zim___ Mim___
Tk. 80,000 Tk. 50,000
Year Annual cash inflows afterTaxes (ACFt)
1 Tk. 15,000 Tk.15,000
2 20,000 15,000
3 25,000 15,000
4 30,000 15,000
5 35,000 15,000
Alif’s cost of capital is 15% and has set a maximum payback period of 3 years for each alternative.
i) Calculate payback period, net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) of each
investment alternative.
ii) Which alternative should the company accept? Explain your views if the investment opportunities: Zim
and Mim are either of mutually exclusive or independent with each other.
April-2011
Why is net present value method theoretically superior to internal rate of return method?
A company is contemplating to purchase a machine. Two machines A and B are available, each costing
Tk.5, 00,000. In comparing the desirability of the machines, a discounted rate of 10% is to be used and
machine is to be written-off in five years by using straight line method of depreciation with zero
residual value. Expected annual net cash inflows after taxes of two machines are as follows:
Year Machine A Machine B
1 Tk. 1,50,000 Tk.50,000
2 1,50,000 1,50,000
3 1,50,000 2,00,000
4 1,50,000 3,00,000
5 1,50,000 2,00,000
Determine the Payback period, Net present value (NPV) and Internal rate of return (IRR) of the two
investment proposals and pass your comment on the feasibility of the investment in machine to be
purchased.
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November 2012
A company plans to replace one of its line of business at a cost of Tk. 13,00,000. The old line was installed 20
years ago at a cost of Tk. 3,50,000. It was being depreciated toward a Tk.50,000 salvage value using straight-
line depreciation over 30 years and can be sold now for Tk.20,000. The new line will be depreciated by the
straight-line method over 10 years toward a Tk.3,00,000 salvage value. Installation of the new line allows
revenues to increase by Tk.5,00,000 per year while operating cost remain constant. Net working capital would
increase by Tk.50,000. Assume that the marginal cost of capital of the company is 10 percent and the
company is in 40 percent tax bracket. Should the existing line be replaced?
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