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Edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, and approved June 4, 2013 (received for review
January 31, 2013)
Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple We examine the basic patterns of response to climate across
global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the crops, latitudes, time periods, regional temperatures, and atmo-
Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and spheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2]. In anticipation of
the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results the wider scientific community using these model outputs and the
indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at expanded application of GGCMs, we introduce these models and
higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include present guidelines for their practical application. Related studies
explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven in this special issue focus on crop water demand and the fresh-
GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative con- water supply for irrigation (14), the application of the crop model
centration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield results as part of wider intersectoral analyses (15), and the in-
changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low tegration of crop-climate impact assessments with agro-economic
and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of re- models (16).
sponse in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties
1. Global Gridded Crop Models
related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high
temperature effects demonstrated here show that further re-
Details of the seven global crop models used in this study are
provided in SI Appendix, Tables S1–S6. These include the En-
search is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate
vironmental Policy Integrated Climate Model [EPIC (17–20);
change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adapta-
originally the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (17)], the
tion strategies.
Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Environmental
Policy Integrated Climate Model (GEPIC; 18–21), the Global
food security | AgMIP | ISI-MIP | climate impacts | agriculture AgroEcological Zone Model in the Integrated Model to Assess
the Global Environment (GAEZ-IMAGE; 22, 23), the Lund-
20 20
pecially at high levels of temperature change (which are also
0 0
associated with higher [CO2]). The GGCM results generally dis-
20 20 play a wider range of uncertainty compared to the AR4 results,
40
40 reflecting the much broader geographical coverage, projected
60
0 2 4 6 8 60
temperature, and diversity of crop models represented in the
60 60
0 2 4 6 8
current study.
Wheat, mid- to high-latitude Wheat, low latitude
40 40
3. GGCM Structural Differences
Yield change
20 20
A major source of uncertainties in projected climate impacts
0 0 across the globe is the result of variations in GGCM approaches,
20 20 assumptions, and structures. Documentation of these differences
40
40
is fundamental to at least partially constraining them and to im-
60
60
proving analyses of ensemble crop projections.
0 2 4 6 8
0 2 4 6 8
3.1 Model Types. The seven GGCMs may be grouped into three
60 60
Rice, mid- to high-latitude Rice, low latitude
40 40
types according to their original purpose, structure, and pro-
Yield change
AGRICULTURAL
40 40
same lineage, such as EPIC and GEPIC, and LPJ-GUESS and
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60
0 2 4 6 8
60
0 2 4 6 8 LPJmL are truly independent. For instance, in the case of EPIC
60
Soy, mid- to high-latitude
60
Soy, low latitude
and GEPIC, the same model version is used (0810), but with dif-
40 40 ferent parameterizations and assumptions about soil and manage-
ment input data that are reflected in the variations in their results.
Yield change
20 20
0
Site-based models were developed to simulate processes at the
field scale, and include dynamic interactions among crop, soil,
0
20 20
IPCC AR4 atmosphere, and management components (2, 20, 30). These
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60
60
0 2 4 6 8
0 2 4 6 8
Regional mean temperature change °C Regional mean temperature change °C used in this study have been developed to run simulations on
global grids, as has been done using DSSAT (29, 35–37).
Fig. 1. Mean relative yield change (%) from reference period (1980–2010)
Agro-ecosystem models were primarily developed to simulate
compared to local mean temperature change (°C) in 20 top food-producing
regions for each crop and latitudinal band. Results shown for the 7 GGCMs (6
carbon and nitrogen dynamics, surface energy balance, and soil
for rice) for all GCM combinations of RCP8.5 compared to results from IPCC
water balance. The LPJmL and LPJ-GUESS models are dy-
AR4 (represented as orange dots and quadratic fit; 36). Quadratic least- namic global vegetation models that simulate the full global
squares fits are used to estimate the general response for the GGCMs with carbon and water cycles. Vegetation dynamics and agricultural
explicit nitrogen stress (EPIC, GEPIC, pDSSAT, and PEGASUS; red line) and for modules were originally introduced to improve the simulations of
those without (GAEZ-IMAGE, LPJ-GUESS, and LPJmL; green line). The 15– these cycles. PEGASUS is a simple global vegetation model
85% range of all models for each ¼°C band is represented in gray. Limits of designed to test how agroecosystems respond to climate change
local temperature changes reflect differences in projected warming in cur- and to evaluate potential benefits of various farming adaptation
rent areas of cultivation. options at the global scale.
All GGCMs
Maize Wheat
AGRICULTURAL
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Rice Soy
GGCMs with explicit N stress GGCMs without explicit N stress
%
<-50 >50
0
Fig. 3. Median yield changes (%) for RCP8.5 (2070–2099 in comparison to 1980–2010 baseline) with CO2 effects over all five GCMs x seven GGCMs (6 GGCMs for rice)
for rainfed maize (35 ensemble members), wheat (35 ensemble members), rice (30 ensemble members), and soy (35 ensemble members). Hatching indicates areas
where more than 70% of the ensemble members agree on the directionality of the impact factor. Gray areas indicate historical areas with little to no yield capacity.
The bottom 8 panels show the corresponding yield change patterns over all five GCMs x four GGCMs with nitrogen stress (20 ensemble members from EPIC, GEPIC,
pDSSAT, and PEGASUS; except for rice which has 15) (Left); and 3 GGCMs without nitrogen stress (15 ensemble members from GAEZ-IMAGE, LPJ-GUESS, and LPJmL).
4.4 Quantifying Uncertainty from GCMs and RCPs. GCMs and RCPs
contribute substantially to the uncertainties of the results (Fig.
5). Uncertainty is higher for soybean and rice than for maize and
wheat, because they have more concentrated production areas Maize Wheat Rice Soy
and are therefore more sensitive to regional differences in GCM B
projections. Uncertainties are greater in the later decades of the Without
century, where GCM inputs and GGCM results can lead to CO2 effects
uncertainties several times larger in the highest RCP8.5 than in
the lowest RCP2.6. Uncertainty is higher for all crops when CO2
effects are included, especially in soybean (which is not directly
limited by nitrogen) and in the end of the century when [CO2] is
highest. Note that the RCP nomenclature is misleading for earlier
decades, because RCP4.5 actually has slightly higher [CO2] than
RCP6.0 until ∼2060 (42).
5. Discussion and Conclusions
The models used in this GGCM intercomparison are tools to
analyze the response of crops to climate change, and to better
understand risks and opportunities in regard to food production
and food security. For this information to be useful for decision
makers, it needs to include analysis of sources of uncertainty due Fig. 5. Absolute deviation of decadal average production changes from
to multiple greenhouse gas emissions pathways, climate models, ensemble median yield changes (as fraction of 1980–2010 reference period
and crop impact models (44). The work presented here begins to mean production) for all GCM × GGCM combinations in RCP2.6 (dark blue),
characterize the uncertainty cascade for GGCM simulations, in- RCP4.5 (light blue), RCP6.0 (orange), and RCP8.5 (red) for maize, wheat, rice,
cluding greenhouse gas emission scenarios, global climate simu- and soy with (Upper) and without (Lower) CO2 effects. Simulations in A with
lations, variations in structure and implementation in crop models, CO2 effects included five GCMs and seven GGCMs (35 members), whereas
and assumptions about agricultural management, in a framework GAEZ-IMAGE, GEPIC, and LPJ-GUESS ran only a single GCM without CO2
that can be compared across sectors. effects, resulting in 23 members in B.
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