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PRODUCTION PLANNING
I. OBJECTIVES
1. Understanding the methodologies of production planning and control
that covering :
a. practical discussion scope of production system
b. production planning
c. collecting and data processing of production
2. Understanding and enable to planning a production
3. Understanding the related of data needed to do production planning
process.
II. INTRODUCTION
Planning process of production system basicly is the same. Started with
demand planning to determine Master Production Schedule (MPS). For the
type of mass production that only producing one product type, don’t need
disagregasi process, and production planning have become Master
Production Schedule.
2.2 Forecasting
Forecasting is a technique to predict what will occur in the future.
Forecasting very needed by a company because every taken decision at the
moment will be able to influence the situation of company in the future.
Equally forecasting used to estimate the consumer needed in the future by
using the past data.
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Ft + m = at + bt m
b). Exponential Smoothing Methods
(i). Single Exponential Smoothing.
Equation Of Single Exponential Smoothing is :
Ft +1 = X t + (1 − )Ft
or
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Ft +1 = Ft + ( X t − Ft )
Ft +1 = Ft + (et )
Single Exponential Smoothing calculated according to
result of forecasting added by forecasting error of
previous period. So forecasting error of previous used
to correct next forecasting
(ii). Double Exponential Smoothing : Brown'S One
Parameter Linear.
This Technique is done if available 3 data and one .
Its equation :
S 't = X t (1 − )S 't −1
S "t = S 't +(1 − )S "t −1
at = S 't +(S 't − S "t ) = 2S 't − S "t
bt = (S 't − S "t )
1−
Ft +1 = at + bt m
(iii). Double Exponential Smoothing : Holt'S Two
Parameter.
Its equation :
S t = X t + (1 − )(S t −1 + bt −1 )
bt = (S t − S t −1 ) + (1 − )bt −1
Ft + m = S t + bt m
(iv). Triple Exponential Smoothing : Brown'S One
Parameter of Quadratic.
Equation of Quadratic Smoothing is :
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S 't = X t + (1 − )S "t −1
S "t = S 't +(1 − )S "t −1
S "t = S "t +(1 − )S "t −1
at = 3S 't −3S "t + S "t
2
bt = (6 − 5 )S 't −(10 − 8 )S "t +(4 − 3 )S "t
2(1 − a )
2
2
ct = (S "t −2S "t + S "t )
(1 − a )2
1
Ft + m = at + bt m + ct m 2
2
(v). Triple Exponential smoothing : Winter'S Three
Parameter Trend and Seasonality.
Equation of Winter'S is :
+ (1 − )(St −1 + bt −1 )
Xt
St =
I t −1
St = (St + St −1 ) + (1 − )bt −1
+ (1 − )I t −1
Xt
It =
St
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(iii).Quadratic
^ ^ ^
Y (t ) = a + b t + c t 2
(iv).Exponential
^ ^
Y (t ) = a ebt
2). Double Regression
Y = b0 + b1 + b2 + ….+bkXk +
3). Econometrics Models
4). Siklis
5). Linier Siklis
ei = X i − Fi
ei = error at i periods
1. Mean Error ME =
(e )i
(e )
2
3. Sum of Square Error SSE = i
(e )
2
i
4. Mean Square Error MSE =
n
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1
(ei )2 2
(n − 1)
5. Standard Deviation of Error SDE =
ei
6. Percentage of Error PE = x100%
xi
n
8. Mean Absolute Percentage Error MAPE = ( PE ) / n
i
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100 120
RT 900 900
125 145
3 OT 250 250
150 170
SK 500
100
RT 500 500
125
4 OT 250 250
150
SK 300 500
III. PROCEDURE
1. Each group will be gived historic data of agriculture tools that consists
of three types they are hydrotiller, powertiler, and handtractor.
2. Do aggregation process to hydrotiller, powertiler, and handtractor
demand.
3. Entry the data to the software to do forecasting.
4. Calculate forecasting error dan choose the best forecasting models.
Parameters of forecasting error that used is SEE.
5. Do verification process to the forecasting results by the best
forecasting models.
6. Compiled the Master Production Schedule according to the forecasting
data with production planning method.
7. Production planning for individual product use simply desegregation
methods.
8. Analyze the data.
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I. TUJUAN PRAKTIKUM
1. Mengetahui dan memahami informasi tentang rencana produksi dari
Jadwal Induk Produksi.
2. Mengetahui Effective Daily Capacity, beban kerja, dan proporsi stasiun
kerja.
3. Mengetahui dan memahami langkah-langkah yang diperlukan dalam
membuat Rough Cut Capacity Planning.
4. Menghitung kebutuhan sumber daya dan membuat laporan Rough Cut
Capacity Planning.
Teknik dasar yang dapat digunakan untuk resource planning atau RCCP
antara lain :
• Capacity Planning Factor
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• Bill of Capacity
• Time –Phased Bill of Capacity
Pada pelaksanaan praktikum sistem produksi ini, digunakan metode yang
kedua yaitu Bill of Capacity.
Rumus-Rumus yang relevan digunakan dalam RCCP adalah :
❖ Effective Daily Capacity = Jumlah mesin/WC x Jumlah shift/hari x
jam kerja/hari x Effisiensi x Utilitas
❖ Beban kerja/WC = Waktu produksi/thn : Jumlah produksi/thn
❖ Kapasitas tersedia = EDC x hari kerja/minggu
❖ Kapasitas dibutuhkan = Standar labor hours/unit/SK x MPS
❖ Varians = Kapasitas dibutuhkan – Kapasitas tersedia
❖ % LC = (Kapasitas dibutuhkan /Kapasitas tersedia)
x 100 %
Secara skematis RCCP memiliki hubungan dengan MPS sebagai berikut :
Umpan Balik
Gambar 2.1 Skema Hubungan antara RCCP dengan MPS
2.1
................................................................................................................... M
emilih Teknik RCCP
Pendekatan profil sumber daya membutuhkan lebih banyak upaya
perhitungan dibandingkan dengan pendekatan biaya tenaga kerja. Pada
pendekatan profil sumber daya akan ada tingkat pengembalian jika waktu
tunggu cukup panjang dan perusahaan menggunakan kebijakan lot per lot
dalam menentukan ukuran lot. Namun jarang ditemukan produk dengan
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Kedua pendekatan akan memberikan hasil yang tidak benar, jika ukuran
lot yang digunakan bukan ukuran lot per lot. Karena itu, pendekatan biaya
tenaga kerja, dianjurkan dengan range waktu sebesar waktu praktis (misal
: bulanan atau kuarter). Untuk perusahaan-perusahaan yang menggunakan
ukuran lot per lot untuk semua operasinya, akan memberikan sedikit
informasi tambahan.
Jika kapasitas tidak cukup, maka ada 4 pilihan dasar yang tersedia untuk
meningkatkan kapasitas, yaitu : overtime, subkontrak, jalan alternatif, dan
penambahan personil. Jika tidak ada kombinasi dari keempat pilihan yang
bisa menentukan berapa kapasitas yang cukup, maka MPS harus dikurangi
(revisi MPS).
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pasar, atau bisa jadi sumber daya internal (W/C). Jika pasar
adalah pembatas, maka jadwal theory of constraint secara
essential harus identik dengan jadwal JIT. Jika ada sebuah
pembatas internal, pendekatan theory of constraint disebut
Drum Buffer Rope (DBR), yaitu mempunyai penjadwalan induk
yang mengurutkan semua pekerjaan diluar pembatas sumber
daya.
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