0 valutazioniIl 0% ha trovato utile questo documento (0 voti)

21 visualizzazioni19 pagineBasic probability is taught in a clear and concise manner

Nov 27, 2019

© © All Rights Reserved

DOCX, PDF, TXT o leggi online da Scribd

Basic probability is taught in a clear and concise manner

© All Rights Reserved

0 valutazioniIl 0% ha trovato utile questo documento (0 voti)

21 visualizzazioni19 pagineBasic probability is taught in a clear and concise manner

© All Rights Reserved

Sei sulla pagina 1di 19

Many events can't be predicted with total certainty. The best we can say is how

likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability.

Tossing a Coin

heads (H) or

tails (T)

We say that the probability of the coin landing H is ½

And the probability of the coin landing T is ½

Throwing Dice

The probability of any one of them is 1

6

Probability

In general:

Total number of outcomes

Example: the chances of rolling a "4" with a die

Number of ways it can happen: 1 (there is only 1 face with a "4" on it)

Total number of outcomes: 6 (there are 6 faces altogether)

red. What is the probability that a blue marble gets picked?

Number of ways it can happen: 4 (there are 4 blues)

Total number of outcomes: 5 (there are 5 marbles in total)

Probability Line

We can show probability on a Probability Line :

Probability does not tell us exactly what will happen, it is just a guide

Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will come

up?

Probability says that heads have a ½ chance, so we can expect 50 Heads.

But when we actually try it we might get 48 heads, or 55 heads ... or anything

really, but in most cases it will be a number near 50.

Words

Some words have special meaning in Probability:

We can throw the dice again and again, so it is repeatable.

Example: choosing a card from a deck

etc... }

the King of Hearts is a sample point

"King" is not a sample point. There are 4 Kings, so that is 4 different sample

points.

There are 6 different sample points in the sample space.

Event: one or more outcomes of an experiment

Example Events:

An event can be just one outcome:

Rolling a "5"

Rolling an "even number" (2, 4 or 6)

up when throwing 2 dice.

The Event Alex is looking for is a "double", where both dice have the same

number. It is made up of these 6 Sample Points:

Is it a

Experiment

Double?

{3,4} No

{5,1} No

{2,2} Yes

{6,3} No

... ...

After 100 Experiments, Alex has 19 "double" Events ... is that close to what

you would expect?

Question 1

A die is thrown once. What is the probability that the score is a factor of 6?

a) 1/6

b) 1/2

c) 2/3

d) 1

The factors of six are 1, 2, 3 and 6, so the Number of ways it can happen = 4

There are six possible scores when a die is thrown, so the Total number of outcomes

=6

So the probability that the score is a factor of six = 4/6 = 2/3

Question2

The diagram shows a spinner made up of a piece of card in the shape of a regular

pentagon, with a toothpick pushed through its center. The five triangles are numbered

from 1 to 5.

The spinner is spun until it lands on one of the five edges of the pentagon. What is the

probability that the number it lands on is odd?

a) 1/5

b) 2/5

c) 1/2

d) 3/5

There are three odd numbers (1, 3 and 5), so the Number of ways it can happen = 3.

There are five numbers altogether, so the Total number of outcomes = 5.

So the probability the number is odd = 3/5.

Question 3

Each of the letters of the word MISSISSIPPI are written on separate pieces of paper

that are then folded, put in a hat, and mixed thoroughly.

One piece of paper is chosen (without looking) from the hat. What is the probability it

is an I?

a) 4/11

b) 2/5

c) 1/3

d) 1/4

There are 4 I's in the word MISSISSIPPI, so the Number of ways it can happen = 4

There are 11 letters altogether in the word MISSISSIPPI, so the Total number of

outcomes = 11

So the probability the letter chosen is an I = 4/11

Question 4

a) 1/13

b) 2/13

c) 1/8

d) 2/11

There are 4 Queens and 4 Kings, so the Number of ways it can happen = 8

There are 52 cards altogether, so the Total number of outcomes = 52

Question 5

A fair coin is tossed three times. What is the probability of obtaining one Head and

two Tails?

(A fair coin is one that is not loaded, so there is an equal chance of it landing Heads

up or Tails up.)

a) 1/4

b) 1/3

c) 3/8

d) 5/8

There are 8 possible ways the coin can land: (H, H, H), (H, H, T), (H, T, H), (H, T, T),

(T, H, H), (T, H, T), (T, T, H) and (T, T, T)

Of these, 3 have one Head and two Tails: (H, T, T), (T, H, T) and (T, T, H)

So:

The Number of ways it can happen = 3

The Total number of outcomes = 8

Question 6

A committee of three is chosen from five councilors - Adams, Burke, Cobb, Dilby and

Evans.

a) 1/5

b) 2/5

c) 1/2

d) 3/5

Abbreviate the names of the five councilors with the letters A, B, C, D and E.

There are 10 possible committees: (A, B, C), (A, B, D), (A, B, E), (A, C, D), (A, C, E), (A,

D, E), (B, C, D), (B, C, E), (B, D, E) and (C, D, E)

Of these, Burke is included in 6: (A, B, C), (A, B, D), (A, B, E), (B, C, D), (B, C, E) and (B,

D, E)

So:

The Number of ways it can happen = 6

The Total number of outcomes = 10

Question 7

A special die is made in the shape of an octahedron:

If the die is thrown once, what is the probability that the face that lands uppermost

has a prime number?

a) 1/4

b) 3/8

c) 1/2

d) 5/8

The Number of ways it can happen = 4

The Total number of outcomes = 8

Question 8

A thumbtack (drawing pin) can land either:

Drew dropped the thumbtack 100 times and found that it landed point up 38 times.

Drew concluded that the probability the thumbtack lands points up is about:

a) 0.3

b) 0.4

c) 0.5

d) 0.6

The thumbtack landed point up 38 times out of 100.

0.38 is nearest to 0.4, so the best estimate for the probability the thumbtack

lands point up is 0.4

Question 9

There are 10 counters in a bag: 3 are red, 2 are blue and 5 are green.

The contents of the bag are shaken before Maxine randomly chooses one counter from

the bag.

There are 7 counters that are not red: 2 blue and 5 green

The Number of ways it can happen = 7

The Total number of outcomes = 10

Question 10

A special die is made in the shape of an icosahedron, and its faces are numbered

with the numbers 1 to 20.

When the die is thrown there is an equal chance of any face landing uppermost.

If the die is thrown once, what is the probability that the face that lands uppermost

has a number that is a factor of 20?

a) 2/10

b) 1/4

c) 3/10

d) 7/20

The factors of 20 are 1, 2, 4, 5, 10 and 20, so:

The Number of ways it can happen = 6

The Total number of outcomes = 20

Lecture 02

Probability: Complement

Complement of an Event: All outcomes that are NOT the event.

is {Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday}

Clubs, Diamonds, Jokers}

So the Complement of an event is all the other outcomes (not the ones we

want).

And together the Event and its Complement make all possible outcomes.

Probability

Probability of an event happening = Number of ways it can happen/Total

number of outcomes

Number of ways it can happen: 1 (there is only 1 face with a "4" on it)

Total number of outcomes: 6 (there are 6 faces altogether)

The complement is shown by a little mark after the letter such as A' (or

sometimes Ac or A):

P(A) + P(A') = 1

Event A is {5, 6}

Let us add them:

P(A) + P(A') = 1/ 3 + 2 /3 = 3 /3 = 1

It makes sense, right? Event A plus all outcomes that are not Event A make

up all possible outcomes.

It is sometimes easier to work out the complement first.

Example. Throw two dice. What is the probability the two scores are

different?

Different scores are like getting a 2 and 3, or a 6 and 1. It is quite a long list:

(2,1), (2,3), (2,4), ... etc ! }

But the complement (which is when the two scores are the same) is only 6

outcomes:

P(A) = 1 − P(A')

= 1 − 1/6

= 5/6

So in this case (and many others) it's easier to work out P(A') first, then find

P(A)

a) 3/4

b) 1/2

c) 1/3

d) 1/4

Answer

P(A') means "Probability of

the complement of Event

A": all outcomes that are

NOT the event.

P(A) + P(A') = 1

So P(A') = 1 - P(A)

Question 2 A fair die is thrown. What is the probability that the score is not a factor

of 6?

a) 1/4

b) 1/3

c) 1/2

d) 2/3

Answer

The numbers on the die that

are factors of 6 are 1, 2, 3

and 6

Question 3 Two fair coins

are tossed. What is the

probability at least one coin

lands heads up?

a) 3/4

b) 2/3

c) 1/2

d) 1/4

Answer

Method 1:

The complement of 'At least

one coin lands heads up' is

'Both coins land tails up'.

Method 2:

These are the possible

outcomes:

HH

HT

TH

TT

3 out of the 4 have "at least

one coin lands heads up", so

the answer is ¾

Question4

A spinner is made from a

piece of card in the shape of

a regular pentagon with a

toothpick pushed through

the center. When the

spinner is spun and it lands

on an edge, each of the

numbers from 1 to 5 is

equally likely.

If the spinner is spun twice,

what is the probability the

two scores are different?

a) 1/5

b) 16/25

c) 4/5

d) 24/25

Answer

The complement of 'The

two scores are different' is

'The two scores are the

same'.

getting two scores that are

the same:

{(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4),

(5, 5)}

out of 25 possible

outcomes.

## Molto più che documenti.

Scopri tutto ciò che Scribd ha da offrire, inclusi libri e audiolibri dei maggiori editori.

Annulla in qualsiasi momento.