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Accid. Anal. & Prev. Vol. 20, No. 3. pp. 227-243, 1988 oool-4575188 $3.00 + .

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Printed in Great Britain. 6 1988 Pergamon Press plc

SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF ROAD TRAFFIC


ACCIDENTS IN OYO STATE, NIGERIA

E J. JEGEDE
Dept. of Geography and Regional Planning, Ogun State University, P.M.B. 2002, Ago-Iwoye,
Ogun State, Nigeria

(Received 17 January 1986; in revised form 6 August 1987)

Abstract--Studies on road traffic accidents in developing nations have been very scanty. In
Nigeria in particular not much is known about accident phenomena. This paper is an account
of a scientific investigation into the spatial and temporal characteristics of road traffic accidents
in Oyo State, Nigeria. The study is based, principally, on the Nigerian Police Official documented
road traffic accident statistics from January 1980 to December 1984. The study examined general
features of road traffic accident occurrence in the state and undertook a critical analysis of both
temporal and spatial dimensions of the problem. The study identified six traffic zones that could
be designated as accident Black Spots in the state, to which priority attention should be given
in any road safety programme. Moreover, the study attempted to explain some of the complex
factors that might account for the observed spatial and temporal variation in road accidents
frequency and fatality. Significantly, the study observed a consistently high number of road
accidents during the months of March, September, and December, while fluctuatingly high and
low accident figures arc recorded for other months of the year. Some possible reasons for this
temporal trend in accident occurrence is discussed.

INTRODUCTION

One interesting feature of road transport development in Nigeria is the attendant increase
in road mishaps. Amidst visible development in road networks, and an apparent increase
in vehicular traffic, it has become evidenced that incidence of motor accidents is also
on the increase. (See Table 1.)
Although various scholars have expressed concern about the seriousness of road
accidents in Nigeria, not much effort had been made towards scientific research into the
problem. One major aspect of road traffic accidents in Nigeria that needs to be brought
under focus is the wide disparity in not only the frequency but also in the fatality of
accidents occurring over the country’s geographical space.
This paper is an account of a study into the temporal and spatial characteristics of
road accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria. One major significance of this study is its critical
analysis of accident phenomena as they occur over space and time in the state. In the
few available works on road accidents in Nigeria [Adamu and Iyaniwura, 1981; Ottong,
1981; Onakomaiya, 19811, emphasis had been on temporal trend to the neglect of spatial
dimension of the problem.
This study focuses on Oyo State, Nigeria (Fig. 1). Covering an area of about 36,168
sq km, Oyo State had a population of 5.2 million people at the time of the 1963 census.
The state capital, Ibadan, had a population of 1.3 million people and is the largest
indigenous city in Africa, south of the Sahara. Among other major towns in the state
with their 1963 population figures are: Ogbomoso (319,881), Osogbo (208,966), Ilesa
(165,822), Iwo (158,583), Ede (134,550), Ife (130,050), Oyo (112,349), Ila (114,698),
Ikirun (79,516), Eruwa (26,963), Iseyin (95,220) and Shaki (76,290).
The major form of transportation of people and commodities in the state is through
a fairly extensive road network (Fig. 2). In accordance with the traditional road classi-
fication system, three types of road structure are available in Oyo State. These are:

1. Trunk “A” Roads: The construction and maintenance of Trunk “A” roads are the
responsibility of the federal government. These roads comprise mainly road networks
linking the federal and state capitals as well as international routes. There are 1,391 km

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Road traffic accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria 229

LEGEND SCALE 1: 1O.OOO;OOO

N
:.:‘.
-:.
:..:
.. Study Arca ( Oyo State)
Amh
Fig. 1. Map of Nigeria showing the study area.

of Trunk “A” roads in Oyo State linking the state with Kwara, Ondo, Lagos, and Ogun
states and the Republic of Benin [Oyo State Ministry of Works and Transport, 19851.
2. Trunk “B” Roads: The construction and maintenance of Trunk “B” roads are the
state government’s responsibility. These comprise some intercity routes and main urban
roads. The state has about 1,558 km of roads in the Trunk “B” category [Oyo State
Ministry of Works and Transport, 19851.
3. Trunk “C” Roads: Each local government takes charge of construction and main-
tenance of minor roads in their areas of jurisdiction. About 12,536 km of such roads
are found in the state. Given the financial, technical, and manpower position of local
governments, most of the Trunk “C” roads are poorly constructed and/or maintained.
Moreover, these roads carry mainly local traffic and act as feeders to the Trunks “A”
and “B” road system.

Other forms of transport in the state are rail and air transport. There is only one
rail-line traversing the state, connecting Lagos to the northern part of the country, and
one domestic airport in Ibadan.
LEGEND
EXPRESSWAY
4
TRUNK ‘A’ ROAD
/I
TRUNK ‘B’ ROAD
A
RAILWAY
64
URBAN CENTFIES WRH
POPULATION OVER 1OO.Wl
a I

KlLCM3ER.S
20 0 20 40 60

10 0 20 40
MllE

TO~&ls t TO UEBUGDE SCALE 1:1,500,000

Fig. 2. Oyo State road network


Road traffic accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria 231

AAP 20:3-P
232 E J. JEGEDE
Table 2. Oyo State vital road traffic accident statistics (1980-1984)

Total S-Year
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 (198~1984~ Average

Total number of
accidents reported 1.763 2,080 2,840 2,187 1,791 10,661 2.132.2
Number of fatal
accidents 603 653 716 632 555 3,159 631.8
Number of serious
accidents 781 1,022 1,415 1,098 844 5.160 1.032
Number of minor
accidents 379 405 709 457 392 2,342 468.4
Number of persons
killed 674 641 863 758 683 3,619 723.8
Number of persons
seriously injured 1,374 1,342 1,795 1,906 1,411 7,828 1S65.h
Number of persons
slightly injured 313 385 377 280 284 1,639 327.8
Number of vehicles
involved 2,368 2,803 3,779 2,901 2,534 14,385 2.877

Source: Nigerian Police Force ‘F’ Department, State Headquarters, Eleyele, Ibadan.

DATA BASE/RESEARCH DESIGN

Road traffic accident statistics constitute the data base for this study. Since, in
Nigeria, collection and documentation of data on road accidents is the official respon-
sibility of the Nigerian Police Force, all traffic accident statistics used in this study were
obtained directly from the Oyo State Police Headquarters.
Although it should be admitted that cases of underreporting, especially those of
minor accidents in Nigeria, have often been alleged, it should be emphasized that the

Table 3. Zonal distribution of accidents and casualties in Oyo State-(1980-1984)

Types of Accidents Types of Casualties

Total no. Serious Slight


s/No. Traffic Zone of injuries Fatal Serious Minor Deaths Injuries Injuries

1. Img (Dugbe) 3,121 612 2.251 258 583 2.459 168


2. Idi-Ayunre 381 123 164 94 136 366 85
3. Eruwa 185 55 82 48 56 104 80
4. Ife 944 348 279 317 466 776 93
5. Iwo 210 55 99 56 47 174 x2
6. Ilesa 393 74 181 138 92 265 4s
7. Osogbo 258 98 138 22 136 254 57
8. Ikirun 134 51 44 39 SO 108 31
9. Ogbomoso 923 321 237 365 391 538 6X
10. OYo 1.101 317 351 433 410 665 199
11. Saki 107 36 48 23 35 93 I1
12. Ikire 721 303 318 100 353 474 31
13. Ijebu/Ipetu
Ijesa 325 113 145 67 170 209 119
14. osu 192 63 118 11 71 261 64
15. Ejigbo 76 16 38 22 20 9s 49
16. Ede 175 59 63 53 71 43 25
17. Iyana-Offa 341 1.50 168 23 176 287 43
18. Kisi 54 28 12 14 41 29 33
19. Okuku 103 37 41 25 26 58 8
20. Ilobu 23 7 10 6 14 17 6
21. Ila-Orangun 19 7 5 7 11 35 17
22. Okeho 33 17 7 9 14 35 2s
23. Moniya 701 223 298 180 19s 281 221
24. Iseyin 141 46 63 32 52 202 59

Total 10,661 3,159 5,160 2,342 3,619 7,828 1,639

Source: Nigerian Police Force, ‘F’ Department, State Headquarters, Eleyele, Ibadan.
Road traffic accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria 233
234 F. J. JEGEDE

Nigerian Police Force still constitutes the only official source of road accident data in
the country, and the reliability of these data is not in doubt.
According to the existing Police operational formations, there are 25 divisional police
posts serving the 24 local government areas of the state. Each local government area
constitutes a police division except Obokun Local Government area, which has two
police divisions.
This accident data collection system by the police on a divisional basis provides the
opportunity to consider each police division as a traffic zone, allowing a comparative
spatial analysis of occurrence of accidents among the traffic zones. For analytical con-
venience, however, Ijebu-Ijesa and Ipetu-Ijesa police divisions are regarded as one traffic
zone since they both serve the Obokun Local Government area. Figure 3 shows the
delimitation of Oyo State into 24 traffic zones on the basis of police divisional areas. It
must be noted that the traffic zones as delimited in this case coincide with the local
government areas.
The accident data from 1980 to 1984 obtained for each of these traffic zones include:
the total number of accidents recorded, types of accident, types of vehicles involved,
number of persons killed or injured, etc. (See Tables 2 and 3.)
This time period was chosen because it was the only period for which complete
accident data from all the 25 police divisions in the state were available.

SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND REPORTS

Accident statistics in Oyo State show spectacular differences in not only the total
number of accidents but also in casualties recorded among the traffic zones. An analysis
of variance (ANOVA) statistics proved that the variations in both the number of accidents
recorded by types and number of accidents is significant even at 0.001 probability level.
From Table 3, it is clear that more than 28% of the total accidents recorded in Oyo
State occurred within Ibadan Municipal zone. This result is not surprising if it is realized
that Ibadan Municipal area constitutes the “nerve centre” of the state and more than
12% of the total population of the state reside in this zone. A significant proportion of
accidents in Oyo State are recorded in Oyo (10.3%), Ife (8.9%), Ogbomoso f8.7%),
Ikire (6.8%), and Moniya (6.6%) zones.
Figure 4 shows the general spatial pattern of accidents as reported in the state for
the period under study. The high rate of motor accidents in Moniya, Oyo, and Ogbomoso
zones may be due to the fact that the only roadway linking Ibadan with these zones
constitutes the major linkage between the Northern and Southern part of Nigeria.
It has been observed, and traffic flow statistics has also given credence to the fact,
that traffic is generally high in this single lane Moniya-Oyo-Ogbomosc+Ilorin roadway,
and a significant proportion of the vehicles plying the way are trucks, trailers, and other
heavy duty vehicles. It should be noted that the 4-lane Lagos-Ibadan expressway, which
is the heaviest and busiest motorway in Nigeria, terminates at Moniya only to continue
with a single lane to Ilorin via Oyo and Ogbomoso. Thus, the apparent narrowness of
the roadways in Moniya, Oyo, and Ogbomoso traffic zones in relation to the volume
and type of vehicles plying the zones might have contributed significantly to the high
frequency of accidents in the zones.
The high rate of accidents recorded in Ife and Ikire zones, however, could be
explained in terms of high traffic flow in the zones. The roadway through Ife and Ikire
constitutes one of the major linkages between Oyo State and the neighbouring Ondo
State. In fact, the Ibadan-Ife roadway has been notorious not only in terms of accident
frequency but also in terms of accident fatality.
An observation of the spatial pattern of casualties recorded from accidents, however,
shows a slightly different picture. The zonal distribution of deaths and injuries from
accidents in the state is shown in Table 3. It is clear that of the total deaths recorded
about 16% occurred in Ibadan Municipal zone, closely followed by Ife (13%), Oyo
(11.3%), and Ogbomoso (10.8%).
More than half of the total number of persons killed through accidents in the state
Road traffic accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria 235
236 E J.JEGEDE
Road traffic accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria 231
were in the four traffic zones of Ibadan, Ife, Ogbomoso, and Oyo. In terms of injuries,
these four zones produced 56.8% of the total number of accident victims that sustained
serious injuries with Ibadan zone contributing the highest percentage at 31.5%. The
general spatial pattern of deaths and serious injuries recorded in all the zones is shown
in Fig. 5 and Fig. 6, respectively.
Fig. 5 specifically shows that, in terms of deaths on highways, Ibadan, Ife, and Oyo
constitutes the “danger zones” for the state while Ikire and Ogbomoso are also very
unsafe. The zones that recorded the greatest number of accident victims with serious
injuries are Ibadan, Ikire, Ife, Ogbomoso, and Oyo. This is closely followed by Idi-
Ayunre zone.
Generally speaking, the Western part of the state, comprised mainly of Kisi, Saki,
Okeho, Iseyin, and Eruwa traffic zones, recorded lower number of accidents and accident
casualties relative to the Eastern part.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

In an attempt to explore the processes that accounted for the observed spatial pattern
of road traffic accidents in Oyo State for the period under investigation a multiple
regression analysis was carried out on selected accident-related variables. In all, 12
explanatory variables were factors analysed in relation to the number of accidents re-
corded in each traffic zone. These variables are population size, land area (sq km), total
length of motorable roads (km), length of Trunk “A” roads (km), length of Trunk “B”
roads (km), length of bituminous roads (km), length of earth roads (km), average daily
traffic, number of motor vehicles registered, number of industrial establishments, and
level of urbanization. The entire correlation matrix used in regression analysis is shown
in Appendix A.
The result of the regression analysis on these variables as produced by computer
programming is summarized in Table 4.
Table 4 shows that of the 12 variables used in the regression analysis 11 contributed
to the explanation of road accidents. The relative contribution of each of these variables
is shown in column 4 while the cumulative contribution of all the variables is shown in
column 3.
From Table 4 it is observed, that the 11 variables concerned contributed 95.3%
(i.e., 0.95325) t o t h e observed spatial pattern of road traffic accidents. However, when
each variable is considered on its own, the following results are obtained, discussed in
descending order of their importance:
First, variable 12, i.e. the number of industrial establishments in each traffic zone,
contributed the highest value of 80.8% (0.806) to the observed pattern.
This result is very interesting; more so if it is realised that the number of industrial
establishment in any area will, to a greater extent, determine the economic interaction
between the area and other complementary areas. Economic interaction often facilitates
spatial interaction, resulting in movement of people, goods, and services and thus increase
their exposure to the risks of accidents.
This fact is particularly true if it is noticed that the western part of Oyo State has
a very low number of industrial concerns which shows the relatively low level of economic
activities in the area.
In contrast, the central and Eastern parts of the state contain a greater number of
industries and also recorded the highest number of accidents.
Second, variable 14, i.e. population size, is the next major significant factor in road
traffic accident for 8.4% (0.08425) of the explanation. Since road traffic accidents involve
human beings, it follows that the more the population of an area the more the human
traffic that will be generated, and consequently more people will be exposed to highway
accidents. This fact is particularly relevant if it is noted that the high number of accidents
recorded in Ibadan Municipal zone is due principally to population. Areas with low
population in the state, especially Eruwa, Okeho, and Ejigbo zones, recorded a relatively
low number of accidents compared to the thickly populated zones.
238 F. J. JEGEDE

Table 4. Multiple regression summary table

F. for t for
Variables Multiple R R. Square RSQ. Change Equation Variable
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (t = F) (6)

(Var. 12) No. of


industrial estab-
lishment 0.89805 0.80649 0.80649 58.472 7.646
(Var. 14) Popu-
lation figure 0.94379 0.89074 0.08425 10.995 3.315
(Var. 07) Trunk “C”
roads (km) 0.96546 0.93211 0.04137 2.016 1.419
(Var. 16) No. of
vehicles registered 0.95774 0.93652 0.00441 0.479 0.692
(Var. 05) Trunk “A”
roads (km) 0.96958 0.94009 0.00357 3.755 1.937
(Var. 03) Land
area (sq. km) 0.97451 0.94966 0.00957 2.867 1.693
(Var. 13) No. of
villages 0.97604 0.95264 0.00298 0.658 0.811
(Var. 06) Trunk “B”
roads (km) 0.97624 0.95304 0.00039 0.115 0.339
(Var. 15) Average
daily traffic 0.97631 0.95310 0.00013 0.039 0.192
(Var. 08) Bitumi-
nous road (km) 0.97632 0.95321 0.00004 0.018 0.134
(Var. 09) Earth
roads (km) 0.97635 0.95325 0.00004 0.011 0.004

NB: Var. 14 above is the log of Var. 2 in Appendix A to base 10.


Var. 15 above is the log of Var. 10 in Appendix A to base 10.
Var. 16 above is the log of Var. 11 in Appendix A to base 10.
Source: Computer output.

Third, variable 7, i.e. the length of Trunk “C” roads (the local government roads),
in each zone accounted for 4.1% of the spatial pattern. The road network map of Oyo
State in Fig. 2 shows that the high road density areas are the southern and eastern
sections of the state, which recorded higher numbers of accidents.
Apart from the three variables discussed above, the contribution to the observed
spatial variation is very low. These, in order of their importance, are: variable 3, i.e.
land area-O.9%; variable 16, i.e. number of motor vehicles registered-O.4%; variable
5, i.e. length of Trunk “A” roadsq.3%; and variable 13, i.e. number of villages-

Table 5. Specific Seasonal Index (SSI) for road traffic occurrence in


Oyo State (1980-1984)

Year

Month 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

January 100.8 99.3 85.0 99.7


February 93.7 95.6 86.0 91.7
March 128.4 131.0 128.6 85.6
April 109.3 115.3 105.8 88.1
May 94.3 105.0 110.7 77.8
June - 92.2 104.4 75.1 66.3
July 68.0 108.4 78.6 108.0 -
August 80.8 103.3 115.7 74.6
September 96.3 156.9 104.1 103.8 -
October 77.3 108.5 95.7 95.2
November 80.9 86.9 95.9 109.9 -
December 109.2 105.6 116.3 105.2 -

If we read Table 5 horizontally month by month, it would be seen


that all the indices for the month of December are generally high relative
to other months of the year. (Note that all the indices for the month of
December are above 100.)
Source: Computed by the Author from Appendix B.
Road traffic accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria 239

0.2%. The variables that contributed the least are 6, 15, 8, and 9. This shows that the
type of road network in each zone is not a principal factor responsible for accident
occurrence in the state. In fact, it was observed that variable 4, i.e. the total length of
road network, contributed nothing to the spatial structure of accident occurrence.

TEMPORAL/SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The monthly returns of road traffic accidents were used to analyse seasonal variations
through the computation of a Specific Seasonal Index (SSI) by a ratio-to-moving average
method. (See Appendix B.)
A seasonal index consists of twelve numbers [Ya-lun Chou, 19691, one for each
month of a year, showing the relative amount of activity that has taken place in each
month. A Specific Seasonal Index (SSI) refers to the seasonal changes during a particular
year.
The seasonal index of accidents as computed for Oyo State for the 5-year duration
covered by this study is shown in Table 5.
It should be noted that seasonal indices for the months of March, April, and September
are relatively high. All these three months record seasonal indices far above 100 except
for only one year, i.e. when the value falls below 100. All other months, other than
December, March, April, and September, have fluctuating seasonal indices of high and
low values.
Several reasons might be given for the increase in road accident for the months of
March, September, and December. There is mass movement of people in the months
of March and December when most people travel to their hometown for the Easter and
Christmas/End of Year celebrations. The increase in movement of people during this
period might have led to a general increase in the volume of vehicular traffic and
consequent increase in incidences of road accidents, especially in a situation where
commercial vehicle drivers might see such times as an opportunity to make more money
and hence become reckless on the highways, just to make as many trips as possible.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that there exists a significant variation in the frequency and fatality
of road traffic accidents among the 24 traffic zones in the state, as well as strong positive
correlation between the number of accidents recorded and the number of industrial
establishments, average daily traffic, and the number of vehicles registered or licensed
in each traffic zone respectively.
The study further shows a sharp increase in the rate of road accidents in the state
between 1980 and 1982. Thereafter, the rate fell considerably. A seasonal pattern of
road accidents crested during the months of March, September, and December, while
for other months of the year fluctuating high and low accident rates are recorded.
One policy implication of this study is that greater road safety attention should be
focussed on those traffic zones that have been designated accident Black Spots in the
state. Finally, this study provides the basis upon which effective road safety formulation
implementation and evaluation can be initiated not only for the state, but for Nigeria.

Acknowledgement-This study was carried out when the author was a Student of Transport Geography at the
University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. The author is immensely grateful to Professor M. 0. Filani for his
guidance and direction in the course of this study. I am also particularly indebted to the Oyo State Commissioner
of Police, Mr. A. Nkana, the State’s Police Public Relation Officer, and Mr. C. Ofuokwu for supplying the
accident data used in this study. I also recognise the invaluable assistance rendered by Mrs. S. A. Ola-Obaju
of Oyo State Ministry of Works and Housing, Highway Division, Secretariat, Ibadan.

REFERENCES

Adamu S. 0. and Iyaniwura J. O., A road traffic accidents model, in Transportation in Nigerian National
Development. Proceedings of a National Conference held at the University of Ibadan, July 4-9, 1977,
Onakomaiya S. 0. and Ekanem N. F. (eds.), Niser, Ibadan, Nigeria, 1981.
240 F. J. JEGEDE

Nigerian Police Force, Headquarters, Lagos, Keep Death Off The Road, A Guide to Accident Prevention and
Road Safety, 1980.
Onakomaiya, S. O., Understanding road traffic accidents in Nigeria: Some preliminary findings and research
needs, in Transportation in Nigerian National Development. Proceedings of a National Conference held at
the University of Ibadan, July 4-9, 1977, Onakomaiya S. 0. and Ekanem N. F. (eds.), Niser. Ibadan,
Nigeria, 1981.
Ottong J. G., Road accident and traffic education in Nigeria: The role of the government. the police and the
public, in Transportation in Nigerian National Development. Proceedings of a National Conference held
at the University of Ibadan, July 4-9, 1977, Onakomaiya S. 0. and Ekanem N. F. (eds.), Niser. fbadan,
Nigeria, 1981.
Oyo State Ministry of Works and Transport, Road Statistics and Transportation Planning in Oyo State, Nigeria.
Unpublished official report of the Ministry of Works and Transport. 198.5.
Ya-Lun C. Statistical Analysis with Bwiness and Economic Appkations Second Edition. Holt. Rinehart and
Winston, New York, 1969.
APPENDIX A

Accident’s explanatory variables used for multiple regression analysis

Average
Dailv
Traff;c
as Computed Total No. of Spatial
Total no. of Proiected Total Road Classification Nature of Road From 1980-1984 Motor Distribution of
Accidents Popilation Length of Traffic Vehicles Industrial
Traffic Zones Recorded Figure Land Area Motorable Trunk “A” Trunk “B” Trunk “c” Bituminous Earth Census Registered Establishments Number of
(Local Govt. (1980-1984) (1983) Roads (km) Roads (km) Roads (km) Roads (km) (km) (km) Data 1980-1984 (1983) Villages
Areas) (Var. 1) (Var. 2) ~~~r:~] (Var. 4) (Var. 5) (Var. 6) (Var. 7) (Var. 8) (Var. 9) (Var. 10) (Var. 11) (Var. 12) (Var. 13)

1. Ibadan
Municipal 3,121 1,028,034 273 171.12 5.6 97.62 67.9 80.85 54.88 22,568.5 38,904 121 -
2. Lagelu 341 359,116 417 693.4 36 40 617.4 6 276 26,253 - 16 671
Akinyfle 701 304,768 1,351 1,352.4 54.4 24 32 1,037 32.067.2 * 4 1,312
4.
3. OIuyole 381 178,853 945 997.3 1,274
5. lbarapa 185 191,630 3,084 1.306.4 51.2
73.2 75.4
81.2 870.7 0.0 660.4 21,438.68 3*528 39 1,086
1,152 16 301 8.715.1 3 387
6. Oyo 1,101 505,202 4,999 1.460.2 169.0 161.6 1,129.6 116 810.9 16.563.35 61187 11 1,089
7. lseyin 141 269,569 3,417 967.5 120.8 40.9 805.8 25.6 782 11,942.98 3,573 14 201
8. Ifedapo 107 228,752 5,810 651.8 109 20.8 522 6.5 467.5 6JOO.3 7,497 2 75
9. Kajola 33 186,645 2,983 335.8 105.8 20 210.0 0.0 408.2 9J36.9 3,758 13 98
10. Irepo 260,517 2,907 271.8 124.8 45.0 102 2.9 285.9 8.105.36 3,005 4
11. Ogbomoso 9z 562,503 1,220 663.52 82.0 60.52 521 0.0 542 20,327.04 6,4$1 23 3:
12. Ejigro 76 184,008 597 493.2 16 39.2 438 5.5 429.5 9.945.45 1,885 4 197
13. Iwo 210 551,920 520 421.2 68.0 55.2 298 105.1 354.9 7,986.4 7 626
14. Irewole 721 445,207 1,441 848.4 45 94.4 0.0 2,218 21.980.2 Z!Z 10 629
15. Oranmiyan 944 617,296 1.545 l&27.2 98.4 119.1 g.7 1,226.5 8,836.76 61838 31 -477
16. Atakumosa I92 226,899 1,198 1,051 15 8:: 1,021 3.220.9 I 212
0.0 1,036
17. Ilesa 393 271,749 117 475 10 265 200 32.4 209.4 11.724.40 7,857 d
18. Obokun 325 290,736 990 646.8 81 115.2 450.60 0.0 214.5 3,643.7 2,728 7 313
19. Ila 19 266,430 501 208 0.0 38.4 169.6 0.0 203 32.033.3 1,813 4 61
20. Ode-Otin 103 291,090 325 317 0.0 35 0.0 263 10,446.67 1,997 45
21. IfeIodun 134 34w9.7 331 266.4 28.4 19.2 %:8 13.6 205.2 9.512.07 4,934 3 472
22. osogbo 258 412,397 g 321.8 84.8 54 183 15.1 88.3 12.524.7 5,181 15 159
23. Ede 175 299,202 277 13 34 230 8 145 11,401.14 3,226 7 469
24. Irepodun 23 256,150 457 291 0.0 22 269 17 213 15.879.6 2,228 - 85

Total 10,661 87535,370 36,168 15,515.24 1,391 1,558 12,536 482.55 12,413.78 120,588 365 9526

‘Data not available.


NB: Var. l-Dependent Variable.
Var. 2-13-Explanatory Variables.
Source--Computed From Various Sources by the Author.
242 F. J. JEGEDE

APPENDIX B

Computation of special seasonal index for road traffic accidents occurrence by ratio-to-moving average
method

Number of 12-Month 12-Month Centered


Accidents Moving Moving 12-Month Moving Ratio to Moving
Year and Recorded Total Average Average Average (Percent)
Month (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

1980
January 135 - -
February 131
March 116 -
April 165 -
May 146 -
June 318 1,763 147 - -
July 100 1,758 147 147.0 68.0
August 118 1,745 145 146.0 80.8
September 142 1,803 150 147.5 96.3
October 116 1.796 150 150.0 77.3
November 121 1,790 149 149.5 80.9
December 15.5 1,614 135 142.0 109.2

1981
January 130 1,471 123 129.0 100.8
February 118 1,544 129 126.0 93.7
March 174 1,703 142 135.5 128.4
April 158 1,766 147 144.5 109.3
May 140 1,796 150 148.5 94.3
June 142 1,896 158 154.0 92.2
July 175 1,983 165 161.5 108.4
August 173 2,035 170 167.5 103.3
September 277 2,199 183 176.5 156.9
October 205 2,345 195 189.0 108.5
November 172 2.411 201 198.0 86.9
December 216 2,492 208 204.5 105.6

1982
January 208 2.534 211 209.5 99.3
February 207 2,658 222 216.5 95.6
March 294 2,723 227 224.5 131.0
April 264 2,773 231 229.0 115.3
May 240 2.716 226 228.5 105.0
June 239 2,768 231 228.5 104.6
July 182 2,778 232 231.5 178.8
August 266 2,741 228 230.0 115.7
September 240 2,794 233 230.5 104.1
October 223 2,797 233 233.0 95.7
November 220 2.715 226 229.5 95.9
December 257 2.591 216 221 .o 116.3

1983
January 182 2.547 212 214.0 85.0
February 179 2,439 203 207.5 86.3
March 261 2,434 203 203.0 128.6
April 210 2,328 194 198.5 105.8
May 212 2,266 189 191.5 110.7
June 140 2,204 184 186.5 75.1
July 196 2,150 179 181.5 108.0
August 131 2,058 172 175.5 74.6
September 177 2,028 169 170.5 103.8
October 160 2,004 167 168.0 95.2
November 178 1,878 157 162.0 109.9
December 161 1,782 149 153.0 105.2

1984
January 166 2,206 184 166.5 99.7
February 165 2,117 176 180.0 91.7
March 152 2,145 179 177.5 85.6
April 155 2,085 173 176.0 88.1
May 135 2,091 174 173.5 77.8
June 114 2,040 170 172.0 66.3
July 214 - - -
Road traffic accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria 243
APPENDIX B (Continued)

Number of 1ZMonth 12-Month Centered


Accidents Moving Moving l2-Month Moving Ratio to Moving
Year and Recorded Total Average Average Average (Percent)
Month (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

August 123 - - - -
September 168 - - -
October 136 - - -
November 137 - - -
December 126 - - - -

The centered 12-month moving averages (in column 4) are obtained by adding the 12-month moving averages
(in column 3) two at a time and dividing each sum by 2.
The Specific Seasonal Index or ratio-to-moving average (percent) in column 5 is obtained by dividing the
originat accident data by the centered 12-month moving averages.
The ratio-to-moving average when expressed in percentage (column 5) constitutes the Specific Seasonal
Index (SSI) for each month.
The procedure adopted in the computation of specific seasonal index (SSI) above is the ratio-to-moving
average method as described and illustrated by Ya-Lun (1969, pp. 712-721). The calculation of a 12-month
moving average for accident data started with the summation of the first 12 monthly accident figures in the
series to obtain a 1Zmonth moving total. The second moving total is derived by dropping the figure of the
first month from, and adding the accident figure of the thirteenth month to, the first moving total. This
procedure is followed until all the moving totals are obtained from the series (Column 2).
Each moving total is then divided by 12 to get the 12-month moving averages (Column 3). Both the moving
totals and averages obtained in Columns (2) and (31, respectively, fall between two months. In the present
study, the first moving total and the corresponding moving average fall between June and July of 19x0, the
next point between Juty and August 1980, and so on.
It is necessary, however, that data that are typical of a month should be centred at the middle of the month.
Hence, to compute moving averages when an even number of time units is used, it is required to centre the
average at the middle of each time unit. For a 12-month period, centred averages are obtained by adding the
figures for moving averages in Column (3) two at a time and dividing each sum by two. The first centred 12-
month moving average falls on the seventh month of the series, the second on the eighth month, and so on
(Column 4). The estimate of seasonal index (SI) is made by dividing the original accident data (Column 1)
by the corresponding centred 12-month moving averages (Column 4) and the resulting ratios expressed in
percentage form (See Column 5).