Educ Stud Math

DOI 10.1007/s10649-015-9679-y

Students’ use of slope conceptualizations when reasoning

about the line of best fit

Stephanie A. Casey 1 & Courtney Nagle 2

# Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Abstract Learning experiences regarding the line of best fit are typically students’ first
encounters with the fundamental topic of statistical association. Students bring with them into
these learning experiences prior knowledge and experiences about mathematical lines and their
properties, namely slope. This study investigated the role students’ conceptions of slope play
in their conceptualization of the line of best fit and approaches to placing it informally (i.e., by
eye). Task-based interviews concerning the meaning and placement of the line of best fit
conducted with seven grade 8 students were analyzed for this study. The results showed that
students’ conceptualizations of slope can play a significant role in their reasoning about the
line of best fit, in both productive and unproductive ways. Analysis of associations between
slope conceptualizations and students’ criteria for placing the line, accuracy of the placed line,
and meaning of the line of best fit are presented. The discussion highlights implications of the
study for the teaching of lines in both mathematical and statistical settings.

Keywords Statistics education . Statistical association . Slope . Line of best fit . Linear regression

A predominant trend in current mathematics and statistics curriculum standards is to lead

students through learning experiences that initiate the learning of a topic through informal,
approachable means (often at a young age) before progressing to learning more formal,
established techniques. Support for such an approach is endorsed in mathematics curriculum
standards like the Common Core State Standards for Mathematics (CCSS-M) (CCSSI, 2010)
which were built on such progressions (Common Core Standards Writing Team, 2013).
Likewise, the Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE)

* Stephanie A. Casey
scasey1@emich.edu

Courtney Nagle
crt12@psu.edu

1
Eastern Michigan University, 515 Pray-Harrold, Ypsilanti, MI 48197, USA
2
Penn State Erie, The Behrend College, 4701 College Drive, Erie, PA 16563, USA
 S.A. Casey, C. Nagle

Report (Franklin et al., 2005) describes students’ movement through developmental levels that
call for increased depth of understanding and sophistication of methods.
This trend has resulted in curriculum standards throughout the world (e.g., England:
Qualifications and Curriculum Authority, 2007; U.S.A.: CCSSI, 2010) recommending that
students’ first exposure to statistical association, one of the fundamental statistical ideas in
school curricula (Garfield & Ben-Zvi, 2004), be through the study of the informal line of best
fit. Informal fitting of the line refers to students fitting a line to data displayed in a scatterplot
by eye, without using calculations, formal techniques, or technology to place the line for them.
The line placed in this manner is known as the informal line of best fit, and students are called
to learn that this line is used to model the relationship between two quantitative variables
exhibiting a linear association (CCSSI, 2010).
Casey (2015) conducted a study with eighth grade students just prior to their introduction to
informal line of best fit to learn about students’ conceptions of the line of best fit including its
meaning, criteria and methods for placing the line informally, accuracy of the placement of the
line, and interpretation of the line. Thirty-three participating students determined the informal
line of best fit for a series of scatterplots in task-based interviews. Students’ success in
accurately placing the lines varied widely, with some students consistently placing lines that
were close to the least-squares regression line (the industry-standard ‘best fit line’) while others
never did. During analysis of the data, the prevalence of students’ comments and gestures
concerning slope became apparent. This is not surprising, as students have intuitive ideas as
well as prior knowledge and experiences they build upon when considering new ideas
(Roschelle, 1995) and students typically learn about the informal line of best fit following
their study of mathematical lines and their properties, including slope (e.g., CCSSI, 2010).
Questions arose regarding whether some slope conceptualizations supported students’
productive and correct conceptions of the line of best fit, while others potentially hindered
students’ thoughts. Determining if there are relationships between students’ conceptualizations
of slope and their conceptualization of the line of best fit could inform the teaching of both
topics so that student learning can be cohesive and supportive rather than contradictory and
confusing. As slope and lines of best fit are fundamental topics common to school mathematics
curricula worldwide, the results have broad applicability and impact. Additionally, character-
izing the development of student thinking about specific concepts, including how they build
upon prior knowledge and experiences, is a current priority in mathematics education research
(Arbaugh et al., 2010). Thus, the present study was conceived as a follow-up to Casey’s (2015)
original study, with the original data re-analyzed to investigate the role students’ conceptions
of slope played in their conceptualization of the line of best fit and approaches to placing it
informally. In particular, it sought to describe how students’ conceptualizations of slope are
associated with their meanings for the line of best fit and success in accurately placing the
lines.

1 Related literature

1.1 Slope conceptualizations

Researchers have described 11 conceptualizations of slope held by students and instructors and
used in mathematics curricula (Nagle, Moore-Russo, Viglietti, & Martin, 2013); those used in
the present study are described in Table 1. Moreover, students may have analytic or visual
Students’ use of slope conceptualizations when reasoning

Table 1 Conceptualizations of slope [adapted from Table 1 in Nagle et al., 2013]

Category Slope as …

Linear constant a constant property unaffected by translation; what makes a line Bstraight^ or the
Bstraightness^ of a line
Behavior indicator indicating a line’s behavior as increasing/decreasing/horizontal or amount of
increase or decrease
Real world situation static, physical or dynamic, functional real world situation (e.g., wheelchair ramp,
distance vs. time)
Functional property rate of change; covariation description of how the variables change together
Trigonometric conception angle a line makes with a horizontal line; tangent of a line’s angle of
inclination/decline
Physical property numerical value to describe physical attribute of steepness, often described using
expressions like steepness, grade, incline, slant, tilt, and ‘how high a line goes up’

interpretations of slope (Zaslavsky, Sela, & Leron, 2002), where ‘analytic slope’ refers to the
rate of change of a function and ‘visual slope’ refers to the tilt of a line’s graph. The analytical
framework used in this study to classify students’ responses included conceptualizations of
slope while also considering visual and analytic interpretations.
Nagle et al. (2013) suggested that tertiary calculus students’ inclinations to use the behavior
indicator slope conceptualization was due to its emphasis during students’ secondary mathe-
matics instruction. This supports the need to investigate whether particular slope conceptual-
izations are foundational for understanding line of best fit to inform instructional and curricular
decisions.

1.2 Student reasoning about bivariate quantitative data

The omnipresence of variability is the reason statistics exists as a discipline (Franklin et al., 2005).
Thus, it is important that students develop an understanding of and appreciation for variability as
a key component of statistical thinking (Moore, 1990). This is a challenging goal, as research has
found that students of all ages gravitate toward deterministic, non-stochastic interpretations of
bivariate quantitative data that do not incorporate reasoning about variability (Cobb, McClain, &
Gravemeijer, 2003; Estepa & Batanero, 1996; Estepa & Sanchez-Cobo, 2003). The results of
Casey’s (2015) original study regarding students’ conceptions’ of the line of best fit confirmed
this as well. Other relevant results from the original study are summarized below.
Students’ meanings of the line of best fit fell into four categories: representing where you
expect the relationship between the variables to be; shows what the data looks like; something
you use to get close predictions; and average of the points. To complete the interview tasks
involving placing an informal line of best fit on a given scatterplot, students invented criteria for
placing the line to align with the meaning they associated with best fitting the data. The student-
devised criteria provide requirements the line of best fit should meet and are not necessarily
operational (i.e., may not determine a unique line). Table 2 lists the predominant criteria students
used to place the line of best fit and the number of different students who used each criterion.
Some students used multiple criteria over the course of the tasks; the number of students indicates
the total number of students who at any point during the interview used that criterion.
Connections were found between students’ meanings of the line of best fit and their criteria
for placing it. ‘Through as many points as possible’ was associated with the meanings
 S.A. Casey, C. Nagle

Table 2 Description of student-devised criteria for placing the line of best fit from Casey (2015)

Criteria Key words or phrases Sample response Number

used for coding of students
(n = 33)

Through as many points as
possible
Equal number of points on
both sides
As close to all the points as
possible
Reflect the relationship the
variables have, based on
context knowledge
Halfway between the lowest
and highest points
Through the first and last
points
Starting from the first point
then maximizing the
number of points it goes
through
Through most or maximum
Same or equal number, half
Closest, nearest
I know [referring to
knowledge of the context]
that…
Middle or halfway between
lowest and highest
Through first/start and last/
end
Most or maximum AND
starting at first
Where it intersects most of the 13
dots
Half lower, half higher 8
I wanted to make it close to all 7
of them [the points]
It’s not what the graph shows, 5
[but] like what I would think
it generally be as the price…
the more people…
The line was kind of in the 3
middle…of the highest and
the lowest
The line would start where the 3
graph starts [points to first
point] and then it would end
where like the graph ends
[points to last point]
Started with the first dot then 2
I looked around to see if
there was any like dots that
fell in the line

‘something you use to get close predictions’ and ‘shows what the data looks like’. Getting an
equal number of points on both sides of the line was common for students who viewed the line
as representing where you expect the relationship between the variables to be as well as those
students who thought of the line as an average. Lastly, those students who placed the line to be
as close to all of the points as possible more often conceived of the line as ‘average of the
points’, ‘show what the data looks like’, and ‘something you use to get close predictions’.
An assessment of how accurately the students placed the informal line of best fit relative to
the least-squares regression line was done by task. A placed line was considered accurate if it
fell within a band that extended 0.5 cm on either side of the least-squares regression line (each
plot’s dimensions were 13.3 cm by 9.5 cm). 20 (61 %) of the lines on Task 1, 18 (55 %) of the
lines on Task 2, 11 (33 %) of the lines on Task 3, 20 (61 %) of the lines on Task 4, and 2 (6 %)
of the lines on Task 5 were placed accurately. Task 5 was different from the others in that it
displayed a scatterplot which had no association. It evoked responses from the students that
were markedly different than Tasks 1–4, and as noted almost all of the students placed
inaccurate lines. For these reasons, students’ responses to Task 5 have been omitted from
the present study.

2 Method

The research question was, BWhat role do students’ conceptions of slope play in their
conceptualization of the line of best fit and approaches to placing it informally?^ To answer
Students’ use of slope conceptualizations when reasoning

this, students’ responses to tasks involving them in finding the informal line of best fit from
Casey’s (2015) original study were analyzed with respect to the slope conceptualizations
students drew upon when completing the tasks.

2.1 Participants

The participants in this study were seven eighth-grade students (2 male, 5 female),
selected from a larger sample of thirty-three eighth grade students from the
Midwestern United States who participated in Casey’s (2015) original study. The study
took place the week before they learned about informal line of best fit in their mathe-
matics class. Of the thirty-three students who participated in the original study, nineteen
made at least one reference or gesture regarding slope during the interview, making them
viable candidates for the present study. These particular seven students were purposefully
chosen for two reasons: they made references or gestures regarding slope when com-
pleting at least 3 of the 4 tasks, providing adequate data to analyze for the present study;
and collectively they represent a cross section of the students with regard to the accuracy
of their placed lines. Two students, Sam and Violet (pseudonyms, as are all student
names), consistently placed accurate lines of best fit. Another pair of students, Marcus
and Evan, consistently placed inaccurate lines. The final three students, Claire, Geraldo,
and Sasha, were considered transitional as they shifted from placing inaccurate lines to
placing accurate lines over the course of the interview.

2.2 Data collection and interview tasks

A task-based, semi-structured interview was conducted with each of the participating students
as part of Casey’s (2015) original study. Each was conducted by the first author or a trained
graduate student and lasted approximately 20 min. The portion of the interview that was
examined for the present study is described next.
First, the interviewer established that the participating student knew how to read a
scatterplot. Next, a statement was read that described the first four tasks:
For each graph, we will talk about the data displayed and then I will ask you to
determine the line of best fit for the data points. I would like you to think out loud as
you decide where to place the line on each graph so that I can understand how you are
deciding where to place it.
Let’s use this piece of wire as the line so you can move it on the paper and place it where
it best fits the data. [Place piano wire of 0.05 thickness on the paper in the white space,
not on the graph] There are no right or wrong answers. I am interested in how you think
about placing the piece of wire, so please tell me what you are thinking as you do this so
I can follow your thoughts. Once you decide where you want the wire line on the
scatterplot, I will use scotch tape to keep it in place. Go ahead and place the line where
you think it should be.
Figure 1 contains the scatterplots presented to the students. All display data sets for which a
linear model is appropriate.
In addition to asking the students to talk aloud during their completion of these tasks,
the interviewer asked clarifying questions to reveal student reasoning. Following the
completion of these tasks, the question ‘Could you tell me what you would say to
 S.A. Casey, C. Nagle

Task 1 Task 2
Scatter Plot yearly movie attendance and average ticket price Scatter Plot
yearly movie attendance and average ticket price

1.55 1.55

1.50 1.50

1.45 1.45

1.40 1.40

1.35 1.35

5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6
Average_Ticket_Cost_dollars Average_Ticket_Cost_dollars

Task 3 Task 4
Fig. 1 Scatterplots used on Tasks 1 through 4

another student that asked you ‘What is the line of best fit?^ was posed. The intent of
this question was to determine the student’s meaning of line of best fit, supported by
responses to the previous tasks. Data collected from the interviews included video
recordings and papers documenting students’ work on the tasks (with the wires taped
to the paper).

2.3 Analysis

The analysis conducted for the current study built upon the analysis done for the original
study; see Casey (2015) for details. Transcripts of all the interviews were created,
followed by analysis that coordinated study of the videos, transcripts, and student work
to identify, discuss, and classify the student responses in accordance with a grounded
theory approach (Glaser & Strauss, 1967). Each student’s meaning of the line of best fit
as well as criteria used to place the line and accuracy of the placed line on each task was
identified, then similar responses regarding the meaning and criteria were placed into
categories through the constant comparative method (Glaser & Strauss, 1967). Novel to
the present study was the revisiting of these data sources for indications of the partic-
ipating students’ slope conceptualizations and subsequent new analyses, which are
described in this section.
First, the written transcripts of the seven participating students’ interviews were read to
determine which slope conceptualizations (Nagle et al., 2013) were referenced. Evidence of six
Students’ use of slope conceptualizations when reasoning

of the slope conceptualizations were found: linear constant, behavior indicator, real world
situation, functional property, trigonometric conception, and physical property (see Table 1 for
definitions). Table 3 provides key words or phrases associated with coding each conceptual-
ization and a sample student response.
Next, the two authors independently watched the video recordings and read the written
transcripts of all the students, coding them for references to the six slope conceptualizations. A
statement could be coded as addressing multiple conceptualizations. The two authors then
compared codings; the interrater agreement was 92 %. Discrepancies were discussed by the
authors until agreement was made on a final coding of the data. To synthesize the coding
results, a table was created that documented each student’s meaning of the line of best fit,
criteria for placement and accuracy of the placed line by task, and utilized slope conceptual-
izations by task. The authors collectively analyzed the table for patterns and associations,
including an exploration of relationships between students’ conceptualizations of slope and
conceptualizations of the line of best fit. Comparisons across the three student groups
(accurate, inaccurate, and transitional) were made.

3 Results

This section presents the results regarding interactions between students’ conceptualizations of
slope (see Tables 1 and 3) and their placement (see Table 2) and meaning of the line of best fit.
First, results regarding the frequency of use of slope conceptualizations during the completion
of the tasks and their relation to the accuracy of the placed line are given. Next, findings
regarding associations between placement criteria and slope conceptualizations are presented.
The section ends with a description of associations between students’ conceptualizations of the
meaning of line of best fit and slope conceptualizations.

Table 3 Key words or phrases and sample responses by slope conceptualization

Slope conceptualization Key words or phrases for coding Sample response

Linear constant Straightness of the line; not curved; I see like these [selected points] go in a
always straight straight line (Sam, Task 4)
Behavior indicator The line goes up/down; increases/ It [scatterplot] just goes up (Evan, Task 1)
decreases;
Real world situation Height at which ball was dropped The height of the ball and the bounce
versus bounce height (tasks 1 height, as it got further away, like the
and 2); ticket price versus movie height of the ball got bigger in
theater attendance (tasks 3 and 4) centimeters the higher it got (with FP)
(Sam, Task 1)
Functional property Rate of change; as [variable] increases, The more the ticket costs, the less the
[other variable] decreases attendance (with RW) (Sasha, Task 4)
Trigonometric conception Angle; line is more/less at an angle I think still put through at an angle ‘cause
it goes through more dots if I do it like
that (Geraldo, Task 2)
Physical property Steepness; line goes up/down more/less I put it [the line of best fit] here ‘cause it
bounced a little bit higher than the last
one [task]…so I just put it more up
(Marcus, Task 2)
 S.A. Casey, C. Nagle

3.1 Slope conceptualization use when placing a line of best fit informally

The initial task (see Fig. 1) displayed a scatterplot that has a positive linear association but the
points are not collinear: the appropriate setting for finding a line of best fit. When asked to use
the rigid, straight wire to represent the line of best fit, however, initial comments made by four
of the students showed they had a linear constant conceptualization of slope which was
conflicting with what they were being asked to do in this task: use a line to represent a data set
that is not ‘straight’. To illustrate, when presented with Task 1 Claire stated Bthe shape of it is
not like straight, so I couldn’t like try to like line up [the points]^. Students’ interpretation of
the task was influenced by their conceptions of a line and its requirements involving slope that
came from their previous mathematical experiences. The linear constant conceptualization of
slope developed in mathematics emphasizes the property that lines are straight; when students
are placed in a statistical setting where points do not fall exactly in a straight line due to
inherent random variation in data, students with a linear constant conceptualization may
experience cognitive conflict. Three of the students in this study asked if they could bend
the wire to connect the points on the graph. Per the interview protocol, the interviewer
responded by stating that the student was to find the line of best fit, and that since lines are
straight they were not to bend the wire. All of these students moved on to place a line on every
task.
The seven students each responded to four tasks during the interview, providing a total of
28 student responses. Table 4 provides the number of responses where each slope conceptu-
alization was referenced, in total and disaggregated by the accuracy of the placed line. Students
frequently used multiple slope conceptualizations in response to a single task. The discussion
that follows describes the frequent combinations of conceptualizations that were coded in
students’ responses.
The linear constant conceptualization played a significant role in students’ conceptualiza-
tions of the line of best fit and approaches to placing it informally, used by five of the students
on a total of 13 responses. As mentioned, for some students the linear constant conceptual-
ization initially hindered their ability to engage with the task of placing a line of best fit. As the
interview proceeded, some students’ focus and insistence on the straightness of a line restricted
how they thought about the line of best fit and resulted in inaccurately placed lines. In all four
responses where the linear constant conceptualization was referenced in placing an inaccurate
line, the conceptualization of slope as what makes a line ‘straight’ prevented the students from
engaging in the task meaningfully. However, use of the linear constant conceptualization was
also used in 9 responses by three different students to place accurate lines. In these instances,
the linear constant conceptualization was not a hindrance to engaging with the task but a tool

Table 4 Number of responses

referencing each slope Line placed Line placed Total (28)
conceptualization accurately inaccurately

Linear constant 9 4 13
Behavior indicator 11 7 18
Real world situation 7 0 7
Functional property 5 1 6
Trigonometric conception 1 3 4
Physical property 2 2 4
Students’ use of slope conceptualizations when reasoning

that influenced how students engaged. For some students it fostered advanced thinking about
slope to begin to tackle the problem correctly. This was the case for Claire, who struggled with
Task 1. Her struggles continued on Task 2, remarking upon reflection that this is more difficult
than linear tasks in mathematics: Bit’s confusing because like most of the time in math if you
have like a pattern, it’s…like it stays the same. And….but like this wasn’t a pattern.^ However,
on Task 3 Claire shifted to use the linear constant conceptualization in conjunction with the
behavior indicator and real world situation conceptualizations to accurately place the line.
When placing her line on Task 3 she said, BI would put it like that because it shows that the
numbers maybe not always went down, but they like…it went down the more that it costs.^
She acknowledges that the data do not have a constant slope from point to point, but for the
first time she is able to overcome that hurdle and use the line to show the general behavior in
the data set.
The other way the linear constant conceptualization supported students’ correct placement
of the line was as a starting point for criteria for its placement, such as looking for groups of
points that closely followed a line. Violet, in particular, was able to leverage the linear constant
conceptualization on all four tasks to find the points that are the Bmost straight^ and use them
to accurately place the line. In sum, although this conceptualization led some students to
conclude that the task could not be completed, other students used it very effectively as a tool
to determine the best placement for the line.
The behavior indicator conceptualization was the predominant conceptualization, used by
all 7 students on a total of 18 responses. The first thing many of the students did when
presented with a task was to assess whether the points in the scatterplot exhibited an increasing
or decreasing trend. Four students did this from a case-oriented view (Bakker, 2004) looking at
consecutive points to determine if they showed an increasing or decreasing trend. This is not
appropriate for tasks involving line of best fit, as the line should fit the trend of the data set as a
whole and trends seen ‘point-to-point’ in a scatterplot may not agree with the direction the
entire data set exhibits (e.g., in Task 3 there is an increasing trend from the second to the third
point but the entire data set shows a decreasing trend). However, all four students eventually
transitioned to an aggregate view of the data (Bakker, 2004) to assess its behavior and when
they did so, they were able to place the line accurately in 11 out of 18 responses.
A closer analysis of the uses of the behavior indicator conceptualization in instances where
the line was placed accurately versus inaccurately revealed important trends. In 5 of the 7
responses where the line was placed inaccurately, the behavior indicator conceptualization was
either the only slope conceptualization referenced (3 responses) or it was used with the linear
constant conceptualization (2 responses). Evan’s explanation for the line’s placement on Task
1, BI don’t know. It just goes up.^, showed that her focus was entirely on the increasing pattern
of the points without any support for how to place a line other than the increasing orientation.
The other two cases where behavior indicator was used in placing inaccurate lines occurred in
tasks completed by Marcus. On Tasks 2 and 4, Marcus used the behavior indicator concep-
tualization with the physical property conceptualization to place those lines in comparison to
the steepness of the corresponding graphs seen previously (i.e., on Task 1 and Task 3) without
regard for the lines’ location on the coordinate plane. For instance, in response to Task 2,
Marcus reasoned BIt’s progressing still. So, if I put it here, this one, ‘cause it bounced a little bit
higher than the last one [Task 1]. I… I put it, like, on the higher angle.^ This resulted in
inaccurate lines. In contrast, when the behavior indicator conceptualization was supported
with visual (through physical property or trigonometric conception conceptualizations) or
analytic (through real world situation or functional property conceptualizations) analysis of
 S.A. Casey, C. Nagle

the immediate data set (recall Marcus compared to different data sets), students accurately
placed lines. Violet incorporated strong visual reasoning while attending to the angle when
visually checking the line of best fit against the data points to determine the best placement of
the increasing or decreasing line within the coordinate plane: Bthe line could go there but the
other points just scattered around but the points are going down…or it could be more angled
like there, more in the middle so it’d be like…I will put it right here…yeah.^ Meanwhile, Sam
reasoned analytically about the relationship between the covarying quantities to support her
behavior indicator conceptualization: Bas it got further away, the height of the ball got bigger
in centimeters the higher it got…and that’s why it went up instead of going flat out.^ Both
visual and analytic reasoning effectively supported students’ attention to the increasing or
decreasing behavior of the data points to accurately place the line.
It is notable that in every response when a real world situation conceptualization was
identified, the line was placed accurately. Its reference also showed different trends across the
three student groups: it was included in every response by a student who consistently placed
accurate lines, it was never identified in the responses made by either of the students who
placed inaccurate lines, and it was referenced by two of the transitional students on their last
responses when they shifted to place their lines accurately. There also was a close connection
between the real world situation and functional property conceptualizations: they were both
identified in 5 responses to place accurate lines. For example, on Task 1 Sam described that he
placed the line to show Bthe height of the ball got bigger in centimeters the higher it got^. This
is representative of many of the students’ responses, where they explained the line shows the
covariation between the real world variables. The one case where the functional property
conceptualization was referenced when placing an inaccurate line was Marcus’ completion of
Task 4. However, recall that Marcus used a unique approach, placing the line based on a
comparison of the steepness of the points in the plot to Task 3’s plot (which had the same
context) with no regard for its placement on the coordinate plane. Thus, in general when
students referenced the functional property conceptualization in conjunction with the real
world situation conceptualization to consider how the real world variables were changing
together, this analysis supported their ability to conceptualize the line of best fit correctly and
accurately place the line.

3.2 Associations between criteria used to place the line of best fit and slope
conceptualizations

On the 28 responses, students placed 13 accurate informal lines of best fit utilizing the
following criteria: through as many points as possible, as close to all the points as possible,
reflect the relationship the variables have, and an equal number of points on both sides of the
line. Considering only the 13 tasks on which accurate lines were placed, Table 5 presents the
number of times a slope conceptualization was referenced in conjunction with a criterion, as
well as the total number of tasks on which each placement criterion was utilized.
The predominant criteria used when students placed accurate informal lines of best fit was
‘through as many points as possible’. In six out of the seven responses where this criterion was
used, the linear constant slope conceptualization was identified. Deciding that the best fit line
should go through as many points as possible was a natural progression for students with a
linear constant slope conceptualization, for these students initially wanted to bend the wire to
go through all of the points. When that was not possible, making the wire (which represents the
line) go through as many points as it could was the next best thing they could do from their
Students’ use of slope conceptualizations when reasoning

Table 5 Frequency of reference of slope conceptualization on Tasks 1–4 when the informal line of best fit is
placed accurately, by criterion

Through as As close to Reflect the Equal number Total

many points all the points relationship the of points on
as possible as possible variables have both sides

Linear constant
Behavior indicator
Real world situation
Functional property
Trigonometric conception
Physical property
Total number of tasks
criterion utilized
6 1
5 4
3 2
2 2
1 0
2 0
7 4
1 1 9
1 1 11
1 1 7
1 0 4
0 0 1
0 0 2
1 1

perspective of slope as what makes a line ‘straight’. Compare this to its reference on only one
of the four responses when the line was placed to be ‘as close to all the points as possible’, and
in that instance its role was minor compared to the other three slope conceptualizations
(behavior indicator, real world, functional property) referenced by the student. Thus, it is
likely that a student with a linear constant conceptualization will prefer that a line of best fit go
through as many points as possible rather than being close to the points.
The behavior indicator conceptualization was identified across all four criteria and in
11 out of the 13 responses when an accurate line was placed. The real world situation
conceptualization is also referenced by students using all four criteria, but its use is not
as prevalent. The trigonometric conception and physical property conceptualizations
were identified exclusively in responses where the line was accurately placed by the
criterion ‘through as many points as possible’. This shows that these students were
attending to the steepness of the points in the plot as well as looking more specifically
for subsets of points which were collinear.
Two students placed inaccurate lines when referencing some of these same criteria, but an
analysis of the data illuminates why the process resulted in an inaccurate line. Sasha claimed to
place the line on Task 1 ‘as close to all the points as possible’, commenting when the line is
placed here the Bpoints are much more closer^. However, that was not the case as the line has a
significantly steeper slope than the least-squares regression line. Sasha’s gestures and expla-
nation revealed that the only slope conceptualization she referenced was behavior indicator,
which, as previously discussed, may be insufficient to support students’ accurate placement of
the line when used in isolation. The second student, Geraldo, placed inaccurate lines on Tasks
1, 2, and 4 using the criterion of being ‘through as many points as possible’, supported by his
reference of the linear constant conceptualization of slope. For example, on Task 4 he saw the
nearly collinear points in the plot (the first three points and the last two points), and fell back
on his linear constant conceptualization of slope to place the line Bthrough five of the eight
dots. So, I would rather have it go through most of the dots, than less, uh, less than some of the
dots.^ Due to the arrangement of points in Task 4 (see Table 3), this resulted in a line that was
placed too high to be accurate. In the other instances where inaccurate lines were placed, the
students used idiosyncratic criteria (e.g., always horizontal and through a point in the middle of
the data, through the lowest and highest point) that were not associated with any particular
slope conceptualization.
 S.A. Casey, C. Nagle

3.3 Associations between meanings of line of best fit and slope conceptualizations

The seven students in this study had three different meanings for the line of best fit. Four
students determined that the line is meant to ‘show what the data looks like’. In other words,
they viewed the line as a way to indicate where the individual points in the data set were
located. To illustrate, Claire answered Bif you put the line there, and then you didn’t have the
dots, it would show you…it would most show you what the data looks like…like if it was
going down…or up.^ Her reference to whether the line goes down or up shows that Claire
considers the behavior indicator role of a line an important one for the line of best fit. Claire
goes on to use the linear constant conceptualization together with the behavior indicator
conceptualization to explain that the line is a tool for representing the location of the points in
the plot and to indicate their behavior. This incorporation of multiple slope conceptualizations
was common for students with this meaning, with all four students referencing all of the slope
conceptualizations except for real world situation when describing what the line of best fit is to
another student. Also of note is the reference of trigonometric conception and physical
property conceptualizations exclusively by students with this meaning. Perhaps the focus of
these students on showing where the data points fell directed their attention to the angle and
steepness of the line when deciding its placement. The four students in this group included one
student who consistently placed accurate lines, two transitional students, and one student who
consistently placed inaccurate lines, indicating that a student’s meaning for the line of best fit
was not a good indicator of success in placing the line.
Another two students (one accurate, one transitional) had a more general perspective of the
line, thinking of it as ‘representing where you expect the relationship between the variables to
be’. For example, on Task 4 Sasha explains that her placed line shows Bthat the more the ticket
costs, the less the attendance^. They referenced the behavior indicator, functional property,
real world situation, and physical property conceptualizations in their answers to the follow-
up query regarding how they would define the line of best fit to a fellow student. To illustrate,
Sam used behavior indicator, functional property, and real world situation conceptualizations
when explaining BI would say look at the data and see if it’s going up or down or staying the
same and then look at the x and y axis and their titles to see what we’re looking at and then
judge to see like for the shoe size, as you get older, would your shoe size be getting bigger or
would it be getting smaller … I just say look at the data and figure it out.^ These were the only
students to reference the real world situation in their answers, which is natural since this
meaning emphasizes the connection between the variables and their real world contexts. The
remaining student, Evan, defined the line of best fit as the ‘average of the points’, remarking
that it’s Bthe middle average in the data points.^ Evan’s view of average, however, was from a
univariate perspective rather than a bivariate perspective, for every line she placed was
horizontal to be at the average of the response variable only. This was linked with her
continued reference of the linear constant conceptualization: Bit’s not consistent. Like it
doesn’t go up evenly.^

4 Discussion

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role students’ conceptions of slope played in
their conceptualization of the line of best fit and approaches to placing it informally. Students
referenced multiple conceptualizations of slope when defining and placing the informal line of
Students’ use of slope conceptualizations when reasoning

best fit, particularly that of behavior indicator, linear constant, real world situation, and
functional property. Previous research (Nagle et al., 2013) found that calculus students
predominantly used the behavior indicator conceptualization of slope, thus it was not surpris-
ing that students in the present study did so as well. However, the calculus students rarely
referenced the linear constant conceptualization while the students in the present study, doing
tasks in a statistical setting, did so extensively. The shift from a mathematical setting, where
points match a linear form exactly, to a statistical one, where a line matches the signal in the
data but there is noise (Konold & Pollatsek, 2002) which results in variation of the data points
from an exact linear form, focuses students’ attention on the linear constant conceptualization.
And in a sense, the students are grappling with an important point when they are doing so: is
the underlying relationship linear in nature, so that a linear model is the appropriate type to
use? However, their idea of ‘linear in nature’ can be very limited, in that they consider data to
have an underlying linear relationship only when the points are collinear. Casey’s (2015)
original study showed that students’ understandings from mathematics often led to confusion
and obstacles when they conceptualized the line of best fit. The current study pinpointed that
the linear constant conceptualization can be a hindrance to students. It was associated with
inaccurately placed lines and inappropriate meaning for the line (e.g., average in a univariate
sense). However, there was also evidence that students can reference the linear constant and
other conceptualizations in productive and accurate ways, building upon their knowledge of
slope from mathematics to construct a correct conceptualization of the line of best fit. Thus, the
findings suggest the following implications for the teaching of line of best fit when it follows
students’ study of mathematical lines.
When students are presented with this novel statistical setting where the points are not
collinear, teachers need to support them in adapting their linear constant conceptualization so
that it is used as a tool rather than a restriction. Many students in this study were able to adapt
by thinking of the linear constant conceptualization not as a description of the straightness of
the points but as a description of the straightness of the model for these points. This was often
supported by students’ coordinated reference of the real world situation and functional
property slope conceptualizations, which focused their attention on the covariation of the
variables in context. These two slope conceptualizations were shown to have a productive
synergy when used in tandem. In addition, the real world situation conceptualization was
associated with the purpose of the line of best fit as a representation of the relationship between
the variables, which is the preferred meaning of the line from a statistical modeling standpoint.
Thus, instruction should encourage the coordinated use of real world situation and functional
property conceptualizations by students when initially exploring the concept of line of best fit,
emphasizing the line’s slope as describing the rate of change between the variables in context.
This approach is also in accordance with recommendations from the statistics education
community to keep statistical analysis of data rooted in context (e.g., Franklin et al., 2005).
The behavior indicator conceptualization is a natural and useful one, but when referenced
in isolation it is sometimes associated with inaccurate placement of the informal line of best fit.
Instruction should encourage students who rely on this conceptualization to also perform
visual (through physical property or trigonometric conception conceptualizations) and/or
analytic (through real world situation or functional property conceptualizations) analysis of
the data. In particular, it was found that students whose criterion for placing the line was
‘through as many points as possible’ did so accurately if they referenced the physical property
or trigonometric conception conceptualizations in concert with the behavior indicator con-
ceptualization because they attended to the angle or steepness of the pattern of points as well as
 S.A. Casey, C. Nagle

to the increasing or decreasing behavior. Students who have the linear constant conceptual-
ization are also likely to use the criterion ‘through as many points as possible’. While one may
be able to place an accurate informal line of best fit using this criterion, particularly for datasets
like those in the interview which displayed strong associations (though not necessarily, as
Geraldo consistently placed inaccurate lines using this criterion), it is not true in general.
Instruction needs to help students understand that from a modeling perspective it is most
desirable to place the line closest to all of the points without regard for whether it goes through
any. Presentation of counterexamples (plots that would be poorly fit by placing a line so that it
goes through the maximum number of points) can be effective at helping students move to a
belief that ‘closest to all the points’ is a better fit than ‘through the most points’.
There are some limitations of the study to note. One is the small sample size of seven students.
Another is that the tasks used in the study were limited in scope in that they did not involve
students in the complete statistical investigatory process of formulating a statistical question,
collecting data, analyzing data, and interpreting the results (Franklin et al., 2005). It is possible that
students’ conceptualizations of the line of best fit and references to slope would have been
different had they engaged in the entire process. Future research could investigate if this is the
case. Another avenue to pursue is considering what slope conceptualizations students develop if
the order of instruction is reversed so that statistical lines of best fit are taught before mathematical
lines. The teaching of statistical lines without prior introduction to mathematical lines has been
found appropriate and beneficial to students’ learning (Nolan & Herbert, 2015), thus an important
research question to answer is how students’ slope conceptualizations develop in the statistical
setting and how this informs their subsequent conceptualizations of mathematical lines.
This study has begun to identify some important connections between students’ conceptu-
alizations about a topic they have learned in mathematics-slope-and how it informs their
conceptualization of the statistical topic of line of best fit. In addition, this study has found a
productive shared problem space (Akkerman & Bakker, 2011), the teaching and learning of
lines, for the fields of mathematics and statistics education. There are concerns that the two
disciplines are becoming increasingly insular and disconnected (Groth, 2015). The work and
findings of the present study have identified an area where the two fields can collaborate,
learning from each other, with a shared goal of improving the education of students regarding a
fundamental topic to both disciplines.

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