Año Presupuestos Ventas

1 3,400 $4,186,000
2 1,200 $1,239,100
3 7,800 $7,233,500
4 23,100 $20,093,000
5 12,500 $12,591,600
6 2,000 $2,042,800
7 2,900 $5,626,000
8 8,800 $13,797,200
9 5,800 $9,711,600
10 17,800 $16,342,300
 X1 X2 X3 Retardo de un trim

Índice
Ventas Índice Eficiencia Consumo Producto
Año Trimestre Eficiencia
(millones COP) Vendedores Privado Interno Bruto Vendedores

1 53.60 0.8429 127.05 217.26

2 55.56 0.8143 132.00 222.60 0.8429
1
3 52.13 0.8429 129.75 216.08 0.8143
4 50.30 0.8571 135.05 220.21 0.8429
1 51.71 0.8857 139.25 190.61 0.8571
2 47.67 1.0429 125.45 187.92 0.8857
2
3 47.54 1.1000 128.50 201.17 1.0429
4 48.20 1.0571 133.35 182.34 1.1000
1 50.14 1.0571 143.90 196.37 1.0571
2 48.40 1.0571 141.75 215.81 1.0571
3
3 48.27 1.0571 144.85 195.18 1.0571
4 43.19 1.1857 137.20 213.97 1.0571
1 45.41 1.2571 129.10 185.94 1.1857
2 47.13 1.3429 130.65 210.51 1.2571
4
3 45.03 1.4286 126.45 224.23 1.3429
4 46.42 1.5286 127.20 195.88 1.4286
1 46.59 1.4857 131.65 212.90 1.5286
2 51.52 1.4429 143.90 226.28 1.4857
5
3 48.73 1.3429 152.55 225.63 1.4429
4 50.40 1.2143 163.70 185.74 1.3429
1 52.38 1.1286 179.70 219.09 1.2143
2 55.45 1.0714 188.70 200.16 1.1286
6
3 50.96 1.0714 193.05 205.56 1.0714
4 51.09 1.0286 195.95 206.30 1.0714
1 52.98 1.0571 202.00 220.66 1.0286
2 56.30 1.0429 206.65 198.66 1.0571
7
3 56.10 1.0143 215.15 227.98 1.0429
4 50.87 1.0000 219.65 213.32 1.0143
1 52.50 1.0143 228.00 229.28 1.0000
2 56.84 1.0143 229.35 210.97 1.0143
8
3 58.38 0.9857 235.80 208.17 1.0143
4 53.37 0.8810 131.43 223.07 0.9857
1 50.89 0.9238 131.67 202.41 0.8810
2 49.63 0.9643 131.89 203.51 0.9238
9
3 49.28 1.0000 134.25 200.04 0.9643
4 48.97 1.0300 135.32 209.81 1.0000
1.0300
Retardo de un trimestre Variables Ficticias

Producto Índice
Consumo Consumo Producto
Interno Eficiencia
Privado Privado Interno Bruto
Bruto Vendedores

127.05 217.26 0 1 0
132.00 222.60 0 0 1
129.75 216.08 0 0 0
135.05 220.21 1 0 0
139.25 190.61 0 1 0
125.45 187.92 0 0 1
128.50 201.17 0 0 0
133.35 182.34 1 0 0
143.90 196.37 0 1 0
141.75 215.81 0 0 1
144.85 195.18 0 0 0
137.20 213.97 1 0 0
129.10 185.94 0 1 0
130.65 210.51 0 0 1
126.45 224.23 0 0 0
127.20 195.88 1 0 0
131.65 212.90 0 1 0
143.90 226.28 0 0 1
152.55 225.63 0 0 0
163.70 185.74 1 0 0
179.70 219.09 0 1 0
188.70 200.16 0 0 1
193.05 205.56 0 0 0
195.95 206.30 1 0 0
202.00 220.66 0 1 0
206.65 198.66 0 0 1
215.15 227.98 0 0 0
219.65 213.32 1 0 0
228.00 229.28 0 1 0
229.35 210.97 0 0 1
235.80 208.17 0 0 0
131.43 223.07 1 0 0
131.67 202.41 0 1 0
131.89 203.51 0 0 1
134.25 200.04 0 0 0
135.32 209.81 1 0 0
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.8079322536
Coeficiente 0.6527545264
R^2 ajustado 0.5783447821
Error típico 2.32797785
Observacione 35

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados Promedio de los cuadrados F
Regresión 6 285.2522099233 47.5420349872 8.7724334
Residuos 28 151.7454643624 5.4194808701
Total 34 436.9976742857

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción 31.9301597227 6.9633850207 4.5854364835 8.6086E-05
Variable X 1 -4.4140459799 2.1504058229 -2.0526571928 0.049558
Variable X 2 0.0589892366 0.0113669678 5.1895314096 1.652E-05
Variable X 3 0.0592112792 0.0311139672 1.9030449839 0.06736284
Variable X 4 1.9102112066 1.148564437 1.6631293335 0.10744175
Variable X 5 3.2699836479 1.1038911002 2.962233908 0.0061662
Variable X 6 1.8661579585 1.1016203497 1.6940118789 0.1013602

Análisis de los residuales

ObservaciónPronóstico para Y Residuos

1 51.838369039 3.721630961
2 51.1689700166 0.9610299834
3 48.6577870205 1.6422129795
4 51.0625043111 0.6474956889
5 50.7911359667 -3.1211359667
6 47.7200924435 -0.1800924435
7 46.5663590805 1.6336409195
8 47.8370822697 2.3029177303
9 50.6499254039 -2.2499254039
10 50.2703401235 -2.0003401235
11 47.3655201086 -4.1755201086
12 49.3693972785 -3.9593972785
13 48.2765018646 -1.1465018646
14 48.0402054768 -3.0102054768
15 46.3603877348 0.0596122652
16 46.1947965056 0.3952034944
17 49.0142095941 2.5057904059
18 49.3141701363 -0.5841701363
19 48.3611863407 2.0388136593
20 49.1348359209 3.2451640791
21 53.791416049 1.658583951
22 52.0501074037 -1.0901074037
23 50.7602935319 0.3297064681
24 53.0743110391 -0.0943110391
25 55.5154420205 0.7845579795
26 53.1459475918 2.9540524082
27 53.6435145652 -2.7735145652
28 55.0142608409 -2.5142608409
29 57.748484566 -0.908484566
30 55.3401358239 3.0398641761
31 53.8149085746 -0.4449085746
32 50.9128118342 -0.0228118342
33 50.8745154961 -1.2445154961
34 49.3700309838 -0.0900309838
35 47.2800430433 1.6899569567
 Valor crítico de F
2.033805501899E-05

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
17.6663121153 46.1940073 17.6663121 46.1940073
-8.8189526254 -0.0091393 -8.8189526 -0.0091393
0.0357050585 0.08227341 0.03570506 0.08227341
-0.0045227934 0.12294535 -0.0045228 0.12294535
-0.442516389 4.2629388 -0.4425164 4.2629388
1.0087652344 5.53120206 1.00876523 5.53120206
-0.3904090334 4.12272495 -0.390409 4.12272495
Semana Ventas
1 $ 1,380
2 $ 1,390
3 $ 1,322
4 $ 1,346
5 $ 1,360
6 $ 1,281
7 $ 1,332
8 $ 1,397
9 $ 1,319
10 $ 1,315
11 $ 1,298
12 $ 1,326
13 $ 1,424
14 $ 1,353
15 $ 1,346
16 $ 1,373
17 $ 1,373
18 $ 1,383
19 $ 1,312
20 $ 1,346
Año Ventas
1 $ 29,500
2 $ 30,015
3 $ 30,507
4 $ 30,137
5 $ 30,196
6 $ 30,737
7 $ 30,289
8 $ 30,917
Año Trimestre Ventas
1 $ 3,518.0
2 $ 2,969.0
1
3 $ 4,292.0
4 $ 4,841.0
1 $ 4,376.0
2 $ 3,803.0
2
3 $ 4,892.0
4 $ 5,289.0
1 $ 4,485.0
2 $ 4,233.0
3
3 $ 5,440.0
4 $ 5,604.0
1 $ 4,506.0
2 $ 4,414.0
4
3 $ 5,942.0
4 $ 6,281.0