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Preparation for an EU India Urbanisation Partnership

Decision Making for Urban Planning

Panagiotis Karamanos
March 2017
Eight Steps for Decision-Making
(adapted from E. Bardach)

1.  Define the problem


2.  Assemble evidence
3.  Construct alternatives
4.  Select criteria
5.  Project the outcomes
6.  Confront the trade offs
7.  Decide
8.  Tell your story
1. Define an Urban Problem
1. Define an Urban Problem

—  Think in terms of deficit or excess


—  Quantify if possible
—  Avoid defining a solution into the problem definition
1. Define an Urban Problem

—  Think in terms of deficit or excess


—  Quantify if possible
—  Avoid defining a solution into the problem definition

The road system of the city is not adequate to meet demand


1. Define an Urban Problem

—  Think in terms of deficit or excess


—  Quantify if possible
—  Avoid defining a solution into the problem definition

The road system of the city is not adequate to meet demand


Vs
There is too much vehicle congestion in the city. The average
travel time is 2 hours.
2. Assemble Evidence

—  Start early since it is a time consuming process


—  Focus on the real information
—  Look at the policy environment
—  Examine past policies
—  Think before you collect
—  Review available literature
—  Survey best practices
—  Use analogies
—  Meet, greet, and get close to sources
2. Example of Evidence
2. Example of Evidence

Number of Vehicles across Ahmedabad


3. Construct Alternatives
3. Construct Alternatives

—  Start comprehensive, end up focused


—  Note alternatives the key actors wish or do not wish
—  (Sometimes) include a “Do Nothing” alternative
—  Learn more from best practices
—  Model the problem to identify alternatives
—  Distinguish between a basic alternative and its variants
—  Consider targets and budgets
—  Discuss with “friends” and “enemies”
4. Select the Criteria
4. Select the Criteria

—  Efficiency
—  Efficacy
—  Equality
—  Political acceptability
—  Legality
—  Timeliness
—  Environmental impact
—  Operational impact
—  Cost
—  Other
5. Project the Outcomes

—  Policy is about the “future”


—  Be realistic (instead of optimistic)
—  Estimate the magnitude of the effect
—  Consider undesirable side effects
—  Construct an outcomes matrix
The Outcomes Matrix
3 Options to Reduce Vehicle Congestion

Criteria Impact Timeline Cost Public


Acceptability
Alternatives
Do nothing Negative Immediate 0 Low

Expand BRT Good 2-4 years Moderate Moderate

Construct Very good 7-10 years High High


Metro

Road Pricing Good 2-4 years Low Low


6. Confront the Trade Offs

—  Focus on outcomes
—  Weigh the criteria (where appropriate)

Criteria Impact Timeline Cost Public


Acceptability
Alternatives
Do nothing Negative Immediate 0 Low

Expand BRT Good 2-4 years Moderate Moderate

Construct Very good 7-10 years High High


Metro

Road Pricing Good 2-4 years Low Low


7. Decide

…….. And think why your proposal has not been proposed/
implemented in the past by others
8. Tell Your Story

—  Can you tell your story in a simple way within 1 minute?


—  Identify your audience (relationship, type of communication)
—  Consider the medium to be used
—  Structure your report and use logical flow
—  Do not always follow the 8-steps too closely
—  Do not show all of your work
—  Do not write a mystery story
—  Keep it simple
Assessment of the 8-Steps

+ -
Assessment of the 8-Steps

+ -
Logical
Comprehensive
Transparent
Persuasive
Assessment of the 8-Steps

+ -
Logical Information constraints
Comprehensive Time constraints
Transparent Policy constraints
Persuasive Decision evaluation?
Presentation Structure

Slide 0: Topic & team members


Slide 1: Problem definition
Slide 2: Evidence
Slide 3: Evidence
Slide 4: 2-3 alternatives & relevant evaluation criteria
Slides 5/6: Proposed solution & implementation analysis in terms
of planning, governance, finance and engineering
Report Structure

Description of decision
making process 3 p.

Engineering aspects of
implementation 2 p.

Financial aspects of
implementation 2 p.

Governance aspects of
implementation 2 p.

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