Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Listed below are other documents translated by the fore mentioned student. These,
however, were retrieved from the Russian State Library (RSL), Moscow, and The
Department of Dissertations- RSL, 15 Biblitechnaya Street, Khimki, between June
18, 2010 and September 2, 2010. Electronic copies were not available so printed
copies were acquired during the translator’s visit. For questions contact Keith
Philippe (Кит Филипп) at: phili077@umn.edu The suggested citation for ‘Energy
Strategy of Russia until 2020’ is as followed:
Energy Strategy of Russia until 2020. Approved by Russian Federal Government on August
28, 2003 1234-P Coll. Russian legislation. 2003. September 8. 36. Art. 3531 [in Russian].
Policy Rationalization to Ensure the Use of Regional Mechanisms Lifted Resource Base
of Information Support.
константинова, наталия николаевна, 2006. политика рачионального обеспечения
использования региональной приподно ресурсной базы механизмы информационного
обеспечения. диссертация Категория Департамента диссертаций, русская
государственная библиотека, 15 Biblitechnaya-стрит, Химки, Россия. 2010 *English*
Konstantinova, Natalia Nicolayevna, 2006. Policy rationalization to ensure the use of
regional mechanisms lifted resource base of information support. Dissertation: Retrieved:
The Department of Dissertations, Russian State Library, 15 Biblitechnaya Street, Khimki
Russia. 2010
APPROVED
Government Order
Russian Federation
on August 28, 2003 № 1234-p
Russia has considerable reserves of energy resources and powerful fuel and
energy complex, which is the basis of economic development instrument for
domestic and foreign policy. Country's role in world energy markets, largely
determines its geopolitical influence. The energy sector provides livelihoods for all
sectors of national economy, contributes to the consolidation of the Russian
Federation, largely determines the formation of the main financial and economic
indicators of the country. Natural energy resources, industrial, scientific,
technological and personnel potential of the energy sector are the national property
of Russia. Effective use creates the necessary preconditions for the withdrawal of
the country's economy on a path of sustainable development, ensuring the welfare
and raising living standards. Beginning of economic growth would inevitably lead
to a significant increase in demand for energy resources within the country that
requires the solution of the inherited and accumulated over the years of reform and
economic problems in the context of globalization and a tightening of global
competition, the intensification of the struggle for energy resources, markets, etc.
Comply with the requirements of modern times can only be a new fuel and energy
complex (FEC) - financially sustainable, economically efficient and dynamic,
relevant environmental standards, equipped with advanced technology and highly
skilled personnel. To ensure long-term stable economy and population of all forms
of energy need scientifically sound and perceived by society and government
institutes a long-term energy policy. The aim of energy policy is the most efficient
use of natural energy resources and potential of the energy sector for economic
growth and improve quality of life of the population. Russia's Energy Strategy to
2020 (hereinafter - the Energy Strategy) is a document specifying the goals,
objectives and main directions of long-term energy policy for the corresponding
period in light of the prevailing internal and external situation in the energy sector
and its role in ensuring the unity of economic space Russian Federation, as well as
political, macro-economic and scientific-technological development. The main
objective of this paper is to identify ways to achieve a qualitatively new state of the
fuel and energy, increasing the competitiveness of its products and services
internationally through the use of capacity and prioritization of development of
complex measures and mechanisms of formation of the state energy policy, taking
into account the anticipated results of its implementation. Priorities of the Energy
Strategy are:
• complete and reliable supply of the population and economy of energy resources
at affordable and at the same time stimulating saving rates, risk reduction
and prevention of crises in energy supply of the country;
• reducing unit costs of production and use of energy resources due to rationalize
their consumption of energy-saving technologies and equipment, reduction of
losses during extraction, processing, transporting and marketing FEC;
• improving financial sustainability and efficiency potential of the energy sector,
productivity growth to ensure social and economic development;
• minimize industrial impact of energy on the environment through the use of
economic incentives to improve the structure of production, introduction of
new technologies of production, processing, transportation, sale and
consumption of products.
The main means of solving the problems is the formation of a civilized power market
and non-discriminatory economic relations of its subjects among themselves and
with the state. In this state, limiting its role as an economic entity, strengthens its
role in the formation of market infrastructure as a regulator of market relations.
Basic mechanisms of state regulation of fuel and energy sector include:
Fuel and energy complex of Russia has always played an important role in the
economy. During the reform period due to a sharp fall in output in other sectors of
the economy, its role has increased.
During the past decade, FEC basically meets the needs of the country's fuel and
energy, thereby maintaining the energy independence of Russia. Currently, the
trend reversed and the recession began to increase gas production, oil and coal,
power generation, the scope and depth of oil refining. Energy production structures
as a result of structural adjustment, liberalization and privatization is largely adapted
to the market methods of management. As a result of the work on restructuring the
coal industry to improve its economic efficiency, eliminated unprofitable unpromising
enterprise. Started the reform of electricity and housing and communal services.
Formed the basis of regulating economic relations in the energy sector, including
mining, taxation and pricing.
Currently, TAC is one of the stable operating industrial complexes of the Russian
economy. He has a decisive effect on the state and development prospects of the
national economy, providing about 1 / 4 of gross domestic product, 1 / 3 the volume
of industrial production and the incomes of the consolidated budget of Russia, about
half of federal revenues, exports and foreign exchange earnings.
practice of extending equipment life lays the future of the lag in production
efficiency. There is a high failure rate of equipment due to low production discipline
of personnel, management deficiencies, and aging capital assets. In this regard,
increasing the possibility of accidents in the energy sector;
deformation ratio of prices for energy are interchangeable has led to a lack of
competition between them and the demand structure, characterized by an
excessive focus on gas and a declining share of coal. The policy of maintaining
relatively low prices for gas and electricity in the future could have the effect of the
growth deficit of the energy due to the lack of economic prerequisites for investment
in their production and rapid growth in demand;
discrepancy between the productive capacity FEC world scientific and technical
level. The share of oil production due to modern methods of stimulation and the
share of oil products obtained by technology, improve product quality is low. Power
equipment used in gas and electricity industries, is uneconomical. The country has
virtually no modern combined-cycle plants, plants for cleaning exhaust gas, very
little use of renewable energy, coal mining equipment is outdated, underutilized
potential of nuclear energy;
lack of market infrastructure and civilized energy market. Not provided the
necessary transparency in economic activities of natural monopolies, which
negatively affects the quality of government regulation of their activities and the
development of competition;
the continuing high burden on the environment. Despite what has happened over
the last decade decline of mining and production of energy resources, the negative
impact of fuel and energy on the environment remains high;
high dependence of oil and gas sector and as a result, state revenues from the
state and the state of the global energy market. There is a tendency to further
increase the share of oil and gas in the structure of Russian exports, together with
the underutilized potential of exports of other energy sources, particularly electricity.
This indicates a continuing contraction of export specialization of the country and
reflects the backward structure of the entire Russian economy;
absence of a developed and stable legislation, taking into account the full specifics
of the functioning of the energy sector companies.
The main factors that will determine the development of EC in the first quarter of the
XXI century, are:
dynamics of the demand for energy resources and hydrocarbons in the country due
to the growth of national economy and its energy density and energy prices;
state of the global economic and energy situation, the degree of integration into
world energy markets;
The use of scientific and technological achievements in the energy sector and
prepare the transition to the energy of the future.
The assigned task of achieving a qualitatively new state of FEC dictates strict
requirements for the choice of state regulation and the mutual responsibility of all
stakeholders.
In the framework of energy strategy based on two basic variants of the socio-
economic development - a moderate and optimistic. Along with these options for
energy strategy also takes into account the possibility of Russia's economic
development on a favorable (intermediate between the base) and critical options.
The critical scenario is characterized by an unfavorable combination of external and
internal conditions, particularly low world oil prices, decline in demand for Russian
commodities, and other difficulties. In developing this instrument were reviewed and
evaluated the following factors of socio-economic development (Figure 1):
• external - world economic growth, the dynamics of world oil prices, global demand
and export volumes of Russian hydrocarbons, the processes of integration
and Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization, the extent of external
debt repayments;
• internal - the intensity of economic reform, the pace of liberalization and rising
prices of natural monopolies, the dynamics of inflation, the pace of real ruble
appreciation, the dynamics of gross domestic product, the scale of capital
exports, government spending.
All scenarios take into account:
• the effect of long-term cyclical patterns of the global economy and world energy
markets;
• the need for external debt repayments without restructuring;
• continuation of economic reforms, including further reform of the tax system and
budget process;
• targeted to reduce inflation, which will contribute to raising living standards;
• transformation of the structure of the gross domestic product in the direction of
increasing the share of services, and industrial structure - towards faster
growth of manufacturing industries and neenergoemkih productions.
When forming the scenario assumes that the fuel and energy sector had a positive
impact on economic growth in the country as a whole, not only through direct
contribution to aggregate growth. Equally important is ensuring the sustainability of
energy supply, rational and predictable levels of prices, the impact of price factors
on technological processes in the economy. From the processes of energy
conservation, tariff policy in the natural monopoly industries will depend on the
technological structure of investments in Russian economy and its sectoral
distribution. Thus, FEC development will influence not only on quantitative
measures of economic growth, but also on the quality of its properties.
These variants are based on intensive economic reform and rapid liberalization of
prices and tariffs for products and services of natural monopolies, and provides
rapid creation of competitive environment on the market for goods and services of
natural monopolies. Accordingly, this variant differs active use of energy-saving and
energy efficient technologies and rapidly reduce power consumption.
The dynamics of main macroeconomic indicators for each of the options under
consideration the socio-economic development determines the parameters of the
prospective fuel and energy balance and development of fuel and energy sector. In
the socio-economic development can distinguish several stages. Economic
development in the initial period will occur in an environment characterized by
progressive aging and obsolescence of fixed assets, limited investment
opportunities with growth in energy demand. During this period, the most important
area of price policy in the energy sector will improve the pricing mechanisms and
state regulation of prices for gas and electricity tariffs.
Scenic conditions for economic development in the period until 2006 envisages an
increase in natural gas prices for consumers of industry (excluding VAT and
payment of transportation of gas distribution networks) to 36 - 39 dollars per 1000 m
³ (23.3 against the U.S. dollar for 1000 m ³, the expected in 2003) with a
corresponding increase in electricity tariffs for industrial consumers to 3,2 - 3,6
cents per kWh (compared to 2.4 cents per kWh, expected in 2003). In subsequent
years, growth in gas prices will depend on developments in the gas market and the
growth of gas production.
Gas prices will be determined by the regulatory ceiling price. Using this method will
encourage manufacturers to reduce costs and ensure predictability of the tariff level
in the medium term.
Given the projected growth in gas prices the annual increase in tariffs in the
electricity industry should bear the rising costs of fuel, to provide an acceptable level
of profitability of the electricity provided to reduce costs. However, growth rates in
the electricity industry should hold back, given that he has the greatest influence on
inflation and economic growth. Application of the method of regulation limiting the
level of prices in determining the annual level of electricity tariffs will solve these
problems, stimulating the reduction of unproductive expenditure.
On the other fuels (coal, oil and petroleum products) free prices in the domestic
market will be formed under the influence of supply and demand. Regulating effect
on the price level from the state will be provided through the application of
measures in the area of tax policy, customs duties.
Long-term strategic direction of the state energy policy are energy and
environmental security, as well as energy and fiscal efficiency. Achieving these
targets, to increase the manageability of the process of energy development require
the formation of the main components of national energy policy. These components
are primarily subsurface use and management of the state fund of mineral
resources, development of domestic energy markets, the formation of a rational fuel
and energy balance, regional and external energy policy, social, scientific-technical
and innovation policy in the energy sector. The main instrument for implementing
this policy will be a set of measures of economic regulation: price (tariff), tax,
customs and competition. Creating a consistent and flexible system of economic
regulation is one of the most important preconditions for the economic efficiency of
energy policy. In carrying out energy policy, the state fully and will use its rights as
owner of mineral resources and assets to the FEC. To improve the efficiency of this
process provides restructuring and corporatization of state property in this area with
its bustling center primarily in backbone sectors of Energy (transport infrastructure)
and high-risk facilities (nuclear, hydropower, etc.) with the privatization of other
assets, especially not under the effective control state. The basis for implementing
the energy policy of the state will be constantly evolving regulatory framework. Its
development would go the way of further shaping the legislation that provides
stability, completeness and consistency of regulatory and legal framework for this
important area of public life. As a result of the implementation of measures
stipulated in this document will form effectively developing fuel and energy sector
and energy market that meet the needs of a growing economy in energy resources
and integrate with the global energy markets.
Energy security
Energy Efficiency
The energy sector is related to complex and diverse relationships with the state
budget, as the main source of its revenues and a recipient of public funds, affecting
the formation and execution of budgets of all levels. Ensuring the effectiveness of
these relationships is an important task of the state and the main purpose of the
policy aimed at achieving energy efficiency budget. The main principles of this
policy are:
• stable outlook - an early and informed some countries are required forecast
volumes of direct revenues from the energy sector organizations;
• Integrated assessment - taking into account current and future effects of changing
the structure and value of state property, reduce future costs in related sectors;
• balance - match the growth of capitalization of the energy sector and the amount it
provides revenue;
• consistent and purposeful in the use of public funds, as well as investments made
under state control.
The state investment policy in the energy industry provides a solution to problems of
increasing the volume of investments and changes in their structure. Measures of
state support for investments in the energy sector include:
• improving the business climate, creating clear and stable rules of the economic
activity of companies, primarily based on predictable and equitable tax regime and
regulatory framework that protects and guarantees the rights of investors;
• Improving the depreciation policy;
• Improving the state price (tariff) regulation of natural monopolies;
• promote the reduction of the entrepreneurial and non-commercial investment
risks, support programs, comprehensive insurance;
• improving the regulatory framework in the area of participation of investors
(including foreign) in the creation of production facilities, production and
transportation of energy resources (including sound management of production
sharing agreements and concession agreements for the implementation of unique
and expensive projects);
• Improving the licensing policy, the elimination of unnecessary administrative
barriers;
• The development of leasing.
Clean energy
The main objective of national energy policy in the field of subsoil use and
management of the state fund of mineral resources, carried out in accordance with
the principles and provisions of the Principles of state policy regarding the use of
mineral resources and mineral resources - ensuring the reproduction of mineral
resources of hydrocarbon and other energy resources and rational utilization of
mineral resources Russian Federation for ensuring sustainable economic
development.
• providing the most complete extraction of hydrocarbon raw materials, the use of
new techniques and technologies that increase the ultimate oil recovery;
• sanctions for natural resource users who violate conditions of subsoil use,
including the deliberate preservation of mineral deposits, and individual wells, the
development of measures to improve the economic responsibility of subsoil users
for non-investment obligations and inefficient use of mineral resources;
The liberalization modalities and partial privatization of energy sector during the
economic reforms were not accompanied by measures to de-monopolization and
the formation of an effective structure of domestic energy markets.
The aim of policy in this area is a sustainable domestic demand for energy
resources of high quality at a stable and acceptable to the Russian consumer prices
through the creation and development of transparent energy markets with a high
level of competition and fair trade principles.
The main components of the development of domestic energy markets are:
• measures of structural policy in the energy sector (including the reform of natural
monopolies), aimed at building a competitive relationship in the fuel and energy
complex;
• improving the organizational structure of the FEC and the system of corporate
relations by creating a competitive environment, including gas and electricity, to
stimulate the development of independent producers of fuel and energy, building
effective management of state property;
• regulation by the state during the period under review, prices (tariffs) in the natural
monopoly areas.
Will continue the reform of the electricity on the basis of separation of natural
monopoly and competitive activities, the conversion of an existing federal
(wholesale) market of electric energy (power) into a fully competitive wholesale
electricity market, the formation of retail electricity markets.
Priority directions of structural change in the gas industry will increase transparency
of financial and economic activities of the JSC "Gazprom" on the basis of separate
accounting of costs by activity, improving the system of internal trade in gas,
including the elimination of obstacles to its development bottlenecks transmission
system and a phased transition to an effective domestic gas market.
Interrelated measures of price (tariff), tax and customs control must ensure that
macroeconomic and social stability, favorable conditions for growth of the economy
with the need to enhance financial stability and investment attractiveness of
Russian energy companies. For this provision:
• phasing out the imbalance between the prices of main energy-based approach in
natural gas prices beginning to level of self-financing industry (including the
necessary investments), and then - to a level that ensures equal benefit of gas
exports and the domestic market (using the fact Among the measures of customs
and tax regulation);
• Targeted subsidies to poor families in the form of housing subsidies within the
social norms of consumption;
• increase in the tax reform, the incentive role of taxes to output growth,
development and efficient use of fuel and energy resource base, moving the tax
system in the extraction of fossil fuels on a rental basis;
• create a system of customs duties for exported products FEC flexibly reflecting the
influence of world markets on the state of the internal energy market and the
economy of energy sector companies, and enabling the export of goods of high
value-added products.
These measures will increase competition and reduce prices for fuel and energy for
the Elimination of the existing price distortions in energy and self-financing
organizations providing ECPs.
Energy balance is the primary tool to identify imbalances in the forecasting process
and the establishment of equilibrium between supply and demand for energy
resources from production to consumption. At the same time, the use of fuel and
energy balance is still not a system covering all necessary levels (eg regional).
Necessary to improve the information base and methodology of balance
calculations to improve the reliability and validity of the results.
Energy Strategy formed taking into account the optimization of the fuel and energy
balance of Russia on the structure and in terms of industries and regions. For this
purpose, based on forecasts of situation in the global energy markets, capacity
additions to reserves of fuel and development of production capacities, scientific
and technological progress and other factors, such volumes are defined in domestic
demand, exports of manufactured energy, import and production investment in the
energy industry and dynamics of prices for fuel and electricity (including adjustable),
which ceteris paribus should ensure that the highest rates of economic growth.
• A significant increase in fuel efficiency and power in the economy and in the
housing sector through energy efficiency;
• Improving the structure of electricity production, including due to the rapid growth
in nuclear power generation and better use of hydropower potential, primarily as a
result of the completion of the pre-existing objects;
• Improving the quality of petroleum products while improving the efficiency of oil
refining;
• complex processing of natural and associated gas and increase gas use in non-
fuel needs;
• Increase consumption of motor fuels at a rate of 1,2 times exceeding the rate of
growth of total energy consumption, with greater use of substitutes for petroleum
products (LPG and compressed gas, hydrogen);
• addressing the growing trend of dominance of natural gas in the domestic energy
market with a decrease in its share in total energy consumption (including
consumption for production of electricity and heat) from 50% currently to 49% in
2010 and 46% in 2020 (Figure 4) due to increase electricity production at nuclear
and hydroelectric power (from 10.8 to 12%), consumption of liquid fuels (from 20 to
22%) and coal products (from 19 to 20%).
The state's regional policy should take into account the fundamental differences of
conditions of energy supply and structure of the fuel and energy balances of
northern, southern and central regions of European Russia, Urals, Siberia, Far East
and the Far North. Correct account of these differences - a must to ensure their
energy security.
The objectives of the state regional energy policy at the federal level are the
creation of a single economic space in the energy sector through the development
of inter-regional energy markets and transport infrastructure, optimization of the
territorial structure of production and consumption of energy resources.
Areas of the Russian Federation to the high cost of energy and their low security
(Far East, Transbaikalia, the North Caucasus, Kaliningrad Oblast, Altai, and others)
are a priority in energy development.
The need for diversification of supply of energy resources of the Far North and
similar areas. For each of these individual programs should be designed to ensure
energy resources.
The implementation of regional energy policy is carried out through the same
mechanisms that power and politics in general. It is necessary to bring regional
legislation into conformity with federal laws.
To achieve the main objectives and priorities of regional energy policy provides for
the regional government energy management functions in the area:
• support for independent producers of fuel and energy, using local energy
resources, providing refinement depleted fields, creating new generation capacity in
energy and mastering of renewable energy;
• monitoring compliance with the subjects of FEC federal and regional legislation,
including environmental protection.
Essential for the realization of regional energy policy, coordination of the authorities
of the Russian Federation within the framework of the federal districts, including an
updated forecast of the territorial dynamics of production and consumption of
energy resources, coordination of activities of regional energy and federal
programs.
One of the major tasks of the national energy policy is the guaranteed provision of
energy resources, population, socially significant and strategic facilities at affordable
prices.
Relatively high level of energy costs in the income of the poor, inadequate social
support for the reforms necessitated an active social policy, which aims to minimize
the negative impact of higher energy prices for socially vulnerable groups.
To achieve this goal:
• ensure the growth of per capita income by at least 3,4 - 3,7 times, including
reimbursement of expenses for fuel and energy supply in the 2,3 - 2,4 times;
• build institutions that are responsible for supplying the population, vital
infrastructure and strategic sites (suppliers of) energy to the extent necessary;
• providing staff with development of new deposits, which are in remote areas;
• to create conditions that facilitate the relocation of workers retrenched from the
energy sector companies in the development of seniority, and released as a result
of plant closures in other regions of Russia;
Based on these policy objectives in this area are aimed at receive the greatest
benefits for the state of foreign economic activity based on an assessment of
related impacts of policies on the export, import and transit, the presence of
Russian companies in the world energy markets and capital;
Unique geographic and geopolitical position of Russia creates all the necessary
prerequisites to ensure the reliability of transit of energy resources of its supply of
fuel and energy resources and their efficient export and income from the transit
functions.
The global nature of energy problems and the increasing politicization of them, as
well as influential position in Russia's fuel system of global energy put forth the
energy factor in the number of basic elements of Russian diplomacy. Its main tasks
in question in this paper the time period are:
Russia, being one of the world's largest producers, exporters and consumers will be
to ensure fair prices for energy resources to actively engage in dialogue with the
countries producing and consuming energy, participating in the international energy
conference in cooperation with industrialized countries on the basis of a declaration
on cooperation with the International Energy Agency and within the Group of Eight,
as well as interact with leading countries - exporters of oil - both independent and
members of OPEC.
Importance for effective policy on foreign fuel and energy markets will have its
legislative support. Necessary to enact laws and amendments to existing laws
regarding the regulation of capital outflow from Russia and the investment by
Russian companies abroad, and support domestic companies in the struggle for
resources and markets for energy, development of joint ventures and foreign
investment in mining (production) energy in the country, including the generation of
electricity.
In order to coordinate the foreign economic activities and foreign support for
domestic energy companies need to create appropriate interagency commission
and improving the effectiveness of established controls to EC in the framework of
the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Union State. A long-term
program of development of the export of energy resources.
It is envisaged that by the end of the first phase of the gas price will be closer to the
level of self-financing industry with the necessary investment.
One of the main priorities of the establishment in the first stage of the market
environment will be the development of its infrastructure (market mechanisms,
institutions, open trade in energy, infrastructure, transport them). This will require
the following measures:
development of a new edition of rules for development of oil and gas fields;
development of the rules of power supply of the population, electricity and heat
supply in the Russian Federation;
development of standardization and certification of equipment for renewable energy.
One of the most important trends in the coming years will also support and promote
strategic initiatives without sufficient development of which the first stage will not be
able to accumulate the necessary funds for major projects to develop energy sector.
To this end, provides for the development of a number of projects and programs,
including:
clarification of the federal target program "Energy Efficient Economy in 2002 - 2005
years, and until 2010, and her routines, taking into account the activities envisaged
by this document;
program development of oil and gas resources in Eastern Siberia and Sakha
Republic (Yakutia) and delivery of hydrocarbons to markets in the Asia-Pacific
region;
support for investment projects on construction of new power plants on the basis of
highly efficient and clean coal technologies.
implementation of existing oil and gas export potential and achievement in the
essentially stable positions of energy companies in foreign and domestic fuel and
energy markets;
transition from the "locomotive" role of the energy sector in the economy to the
natural function of an efficient and stable supplier of energy resources for the needs
of the economy and population.
At the second stage of the national energy policy should be qualitatively different
situation of energy development, characterized by stable and favorable conditions
for the implementation of commercial initiatives on the energy market.
It is envisaged that at this stage of the formation of a qualitatively new fuel and
energy complex will be characterized by:
As a result, demand for primary energy in the domestic market of Russia will be in
2010 1020 - 1095 million tce, and by 2020 - 1145 - 1270 million tce (Fig. 7).
The basis of domestic demand for energy resources in all variants will natural gas.
While its share in the expenditure part of the balance of primary energy
consumption will decrease from 50% currently to 45-46% in 2020. For liquid fuel (oil
and petroleum products) will account for 20-22% considered the prospects and to
solid fuel - 19-20%. Stable enough to be domestic demand and non-fuel energy
(electricity and heat hydro and nuclear power and renewable energy sources).
In the coming period will be the fastest-growing consumption of motor fuel - at 15-
26% by 2010 and by 33-55% by 2020. At the same time as a motor fuel
vpredstoyaschy period will also be used liquefied and compressed natural gas. It is
also predicted that the mobile power by 2020 will begin distribution of electric and
hydrogen engines, as well as the use of fuel cells.
Fig. 7. The dynamics of the structure and volume of domestic consumption of
primary energy resources in Russia
Russia's integration with the global economy, prospects for the country's
accession to the WTO, the liberalization of gas market in Europe and the
changes occurring in the external market, require a review of tactics, not only
of Russian energy companies, but also the state as a whole.
In our future, Russia will remain a major energy supplier to the world market
(Fig. 8).
Fig. 8. Exports of fuel and energy resources
It is estimated that the stabilization of oil prices in the range of 18 - $ 20 per barrel,
Russian exports of fuel and electricity will increase (relative to 2002 levels) by 23-
25% by 2010 and 25-30% by 2020, while the regular price increases up to $ 30 per
barrel cost-effective growth of exports of all kinds of energy from Russia will be
respectively 30-35% and 45-50%. If the oil price in the current decade will be in the
range of 13 - $ 15 per barrel, the export of energy should be reduced by 10-15%
relative to the achieved level. On a scale export of hydrocarbon raw materials will
also affect the proportion of its production with the involvement of foreign capital
and on the conditions of production sharing agreements. At the same time export
policy should provide for possible large fluctuations in oil prices and a possible
reduction in gas prices due to liberalization of the gas market in Europe. In order to
maintain energy and economic security should strive to diversify the direction of
energy exports to the development of the northern, eastern and southern areas of
export flows of Russian energy supplies and further increase their share in the
geographical structure of exports of energy resources. Receive constructive
dialogue on energy with the countries of Europe, remains today the main
consumers of Russian energy resources. Forms of cooperation with European
partners will include implementing joint investment projects, especially energy
transport, involvement of European investors in oil and gas development projects in
Russia (including sold under production sharing agreements and concessions), the
interaction in the sphere of energy saving. In the second half of the forecast period
is possible withdrawal of Russia on the world market for liquefied natural gas, as
well as the top export of synthetic motor fuel. Russia is interested in long-term and
large-scale involvement in its energy balance of hydrocarbon resources (especially
natural gas), the Central Asian countries of the Commonwealth of Independent
States. This will not only save resources of the northern gas fields in Russia for
future generations and avoid the forced investment in their development, but also
give the opportunity to reduce the pressure on markets that are of strategic interest
to Russia itself. In the interests of Russia participation of national companies in
projects to improve the transport infrastructure of energy resources in the territory of
the Commonwealth of Independent States. The main directions of cooperation will
be the restoration and further development of the unified power system, the
strengthening of mineral resources, participate in the development and exploitation
of oil and gas fields and construction of electric power facilities in the
Commonwealth of Independent States. Strategic priorities include the solution of the
complex problems of the Caspian Sea, including the preparation of a convention on
the legal status of the Caspian Sea. As one of the key players in the global energy
market, Russia should actively influence the establishment of reasonable and
predictable energy prices, fair and beneficial for both countries, both producers and
consumers of energy. At the same time, public policy should provide for possible
large fluctuations in energy prices due to changes in the situation on the world
market. The state will support the participation of Russian companies in a cost-
effective overseas investment projects. A fundamental condition for the
implementation of state energy policy in this area will increase the efficiency and
reliability of power supply domestic consumers.
• increase production of primary energy from 1418 million tce 2000 (1515 million tce
in 2002) to 1700 - 1820 million tce in 2010 and 1810 - 2,030 million tce in 2020;
• growth of electricity generation from 878 billion kWh in 2000 (892 billion kWh in
2002) to 1015 - 1070 billion kWh in 2010 and to 1215 - 1365 · billion kW • h in 2020
year;
• increased oil production from 324 million tons in 2000 (379 million tons in 2002) to
445 - 490 million tons in 2010 and to 450 - 520 million tons in 2020;
• increase production of motor fuels from 83 million tones in 2000 (88 million tons in
2002) to 100 - 110 million tons in 2010 and to 115 - 135 million tons in 2020;
• increase of gas production from 584 billion m ³ in 2000 (595 billion m ³ in 2002) to
635 - 665 billion m ³ in 2010 and to 680 - 730 billion m ³ in 2020;
• increase in coal production from 258 million tons in 2000 (253 million tons in 2002)
to 310 - 330 million tons in 2010 and to 375 - 430 million tons in 2020;
• Increased release of centralized heat from 1452 million Gcal in 2000 (1437 million
Gcal in 2002) to 1570 - 1625 million Gcal in 2010 and to 1720 - 1820 million Gcal in
2020
Russia has one of the world's largest mineral potential, which is the basis of
guaranteed supply of economic and energy security, meet current and future needs
of the Russian economy in the hydrocarbon raw materials, coal and uranium. The
structure and size of reserves of fossil fuels, their quality, degree of scrutiny and
direction of economic development have a direct impact on the country's economic
potential, social development of regions. Russia has significant hydrocarbon
resources. Projected oil reserves are estimated at 44 billion tons, gas - 127 trillion.
m ³. Oil resources are located mainly on land (approximately ¾), gas resources are
divided about equally between the land and the shelf. The share of the two federal
regions - the Urals and Siberia accounts for approximately 60% of oil resources and
40% of gas resources. Of the remaining regions of the Far East allocated - about
6% of the expected resources of oil and 7% of the gas. Current state of mineral
resources of hydrocarbons is characterized by reduction of proven oil and gas
reserves and the low rate of reproduction. Volumes of exploration does not provide
a reproduction of the mineral base oil and gas industry, in the future, especially with
the rapid growth of oil production, may become a serious threat to energy and
economic security of the country. Continues to deteriorate the structure of proven oil
reserves. Occurs forestalling the development of the most profitable parts of the
fields and deposits. The newly prepared reserves are concentrated mainly in the
medium and small deposits are a significant part of the hard-. Total volume hard-to-
stock is more than half the known reserves of the country. The structure of the gas
reserves in Russia are more favorable than oil, but also tends to increase the
proportion of complex and difficult-to-stock. Problems of development associated
with the reduction being in the industrial development of highly productive, has a
shallow reserves of complex natural-climatic conditions and the remoteness of
future major centers of gas production from the established centers of the gas
industry (Eastern Siberia, Far East, the Yamal Peninsula, Barents and Kara seas ),
the prospect of the coming years, substantial reserves of low-pressure gas, the
increase in the proven reserves of the fatty, condensate and geliysoderzhaschih
gases required for the effective development of a gas processing infrastructure. Gas
reserves underlying the producing fields in Western Siberia - the main gas
producing region of the country (Bear, Urengoi, Yamburgskoye) - developed by 55-
75% and moved or will move in the coming years in the stage of declining
production. State balance account reserves of uranium deposits in 1955. In
accordance with the value categories IAEA active and reserves of that fuel is 38%,
the bulk of reserves - off-balance. Predicted uranium resources are estimated at
about 1 million tons The total production of uranium in 2020 from the raw
materials currently known deposits may reach 6.5 - 7 tons with an annual demand
10 - 12 thousand tons of difference between the annual production of natural
uranium and its total estimated cost will be covered by stocks of uranium and re-use
fuel with a simultaneous gradual transition to the reproduction of nuclear fuel in fast
reactors. To secure long-term (after 2020) to ensure the needs of the nuclear fuel
cycle should be increased production of natural uranium. The main directions for
solving this problem are: the development of existing mining companies, holding a
significant amount of exploration, evaluation of reserves of uranium deposits for
commissioning after 2010, the purchase and production of uranium in the
Commonwealth of Independent States. The Russian Federation has significant
balance reserves of coal (more than 200 billion tons - 12 percent of the world) really
explored - 105 billion tons of geological coal resources are estimated at 4,450 billion
tons (30 percent of the world). However reserves of coal are distributed unevenly:
more than 80 percent of all reserves are concentrated in Siberia, and the share of
the European part of Russia accounted for only 10%. By types of coal in the
structure of known reserves of the Russian Federation is dominated by brown -
51,2%, the share of coal accounts for 45.4%, anthracite - 3,4%. Coking coal
reserves are 40 billion tons, of which the most valuable stamps stockpiles of coal -
20 billion tons (including industrial categories involved in development - more than 6
billion tons), which focused mostly on the deeper levels (more than 300 m) and
require further exploration and significant capital expenditure for exploration.
Average provision mine reserves of coking coal at present are not more than 13
years. The main reserves of coking and other coal of all types - from long-flame to
the anthracite coal are concentrated in one of the major coal basins of Russia - the
Kuznetsk. Explored raw potential of the Kuznetsk Basin - 57.3 billion tons biggest
source of raw materials for energy are lignite Kansk-Achinsk. Program and the
licensing terms of mineral resources in the Russian Federation until 2020, based on
planned production levels of fuel, should ensure the expanded reproduction of
mineral resources: the increase of oil reserves in the amount of 7,5 - 10 billion tons
and gas reserves in an amount of 11.2 - 18800000000000. m ³. In this case,
probable reserves and resources of the distributed stock of mineral resources in key
areas of oil and gas can to ensure the reproduction of mineral resources in the next
10 - 15 years no more than 30-40%, while the remaining stocks should be the
increment due to the exploration and development of new territories and waters of
Russia. To implement the program of expanded reproduction of mineral resources
must have an active policy of licensing the subsoil. For the entire period until 2020
the main areas of growth of hydrocarbon will be the West-Siberian, Lena-Tunguska
and the Timan-Pechora province.
2. Oil Complex
• stable, uninterrupted and cost-effectively meet the domestic and external demand
for oil and its derivatives;
To achieve these objectives include the following main objectives of the oil complex:
• rational use of proven oil reserves, to ensure the expanded reproduction of raw
materials oil industry;
• resource and energy saving, reduction of losses at all stages of the process for the
preparation of inventories, production, transport and refining of oil;
• deepening of the oil refining complex extraction and use of all securities
associated and dissolved constituents;
Oil Industry
Future production levels in Russia are determined mainly by the following factors -
the demand for liquid fuels and the level of world prices for it, transport
infrastructure development, fiscal conditions, and scientific and technological
advances in exploration and development, as well as the quality of the explored
resource base. Future oil production in Russia will vary significantly depending on
the option or the other socio-economic development. In the optimistic and favorable
options of socio-economic development of Russian oil production may reach about
490 million tons in 2010 and increase to 520 million tons by 2020 (Fig. 9).
• increasing the recovery factor for a more complete extraction of hydrocarbons and
increase the levels of the current oil producing fields.
Innovative program branch must provide the conditions for maximum utilization of
scientific and technological progress in the industry. The main directions of scientific
and technological advances in oil recovery are:
• improving existing and creating new methods of stimulation and enhanced oil
recovery;
Long-term state policy in the sphere of oil production should be aimed at creating a
stable environment for sustainable development of the industry and include:
• Improving the system of subsoil in order to promote the interest of subsoil users
invest their own money in the reproduction of mineral resources;
• limit the minimum and maximum level of oil in each section of the subsoil;
• tightening the requirements and conditions for issuing licenses and ensuring
effective monitoring of the effective field development;
• Improving the system of taxation of the oil complex (an introduction to the term
flexible tax system-oriented approach to rent).
Achievement of planned levels of oil production in the country and the appropriate
development of exploration and transportation infrastructure (including construction
of new trunk pipelines and export marine terminals in the East and the North of
Russia) requires increased investment. The main source of capital investment
during the period under review, will own the company. With the development of new
mining areas is also expected to attract credit resources in terms of project
financing. In the run up to 25-30% of the total investment may reach debt and
equity.
Refining industry
Starting from 2005 - 2006's to increase oil exports and the consolidation of Russian
oil companies of assets of some foreign refineries will be decrease in exports of
petroleum products, especially "semi" (straight-run fuel oil, some grades of diesel
and bunker fuel). The main direction of development of oil refining - the
modernization and reconstruction of existing refineries with advanced building
capacities for the enhancement of processing oil, improve oil product quality and
production of catalysts. Reconstruction and modernization of refineries provides
advanced development of technological systems to enhance refining and improving
the quality of products using processes such as catalytic cracking, hydrocracking,
coking residues visbkreking, as well as the introduction of modern technologies for
catalytic reforming of gasoline, hydrotreated diesel fuels and jet fuels engines,
isomerization, alkylation, and gidrodeparafinizatsii dearomatisation, obtaining high-
oxygen supplementation. Necessary to eliminate the backlog in the production of
modern motor oils, which provides to develop the production of high viscosity base
oils and effective lubricant additives for various purposes. In order to bring
petroleum products to their consumers the opportunity to build new refineries high
average power in areas of concentrated consumption of petroleum products, and in
the remote northern and eastern regions allowed the development of certified small
plants with a complete cycle of oil refining. Target industry is also providing the
necessary raw materials of petrochemical industry production value is an order of
magnitude higher than the actual cost of production of oil refining. Growth in
demand of chemical and petrochemical industry in the hydrocarbon raw materials
even in the widespread adoption of resource-saving technologies by 2010 will be
(against 2002 levels) 2 - 2,5 times. Significant improvement in quality of petroleum
products and bring it to environmentally sound standards - one of the most
important conditions for removing the oil refining industry on the modern technical
level, the achievement of which will ensure the country's needs for quality motor
fuels, lubricating oils, the raw material for petrochemicals and other petroleum
products. Requirements for the quality of oil products should be enshrined in law.
Improving the quality requirements for petroleum refining and upgrading of
enterprises will ensure improvement of the environment, reducing specific energy
consumption in the production process. Thus, only the cessation of production of
diesel fuel with a sulfur content higher than 0.2 percent and increased consumption
of low-sulfur diesel fuel in Russia (in 2005 to 9 million tons) will reduce total
emissions of sulfur oxides from the use of motor vehicles more than doubled .
Priority directions of scientific and technological advances in oil refining are:
• Improving the quality of diesel fuel and jet fuel based on the deep hydrotreating
and gidroaromatizatsii;
• obtaining low-sulfur fuel oil and low-sulfur feedstock for destructive processing;
• Development of technology and modular equipment for the processing of heavy oil
residues from thermal treatment to 430 ° C without hydrogen;
• the need to have their own offshore oil-loading terminals for oil supplies for export;
• The feasibility of formation of new export routes for Russian oil and petroleum
products;
• the emergence of new centers of oil production in the east (Eastern Siberia, Sakha
Republic (Yakutia), Sakhalin Island);
• reduction of oil production in the European part of the country, especially in the
Volga-Urals and North Caucasus regions;
• the need to have a reserve of oil transport capacity to ensure the transit of oil via
the Russian pipeline system;
The most complete of all these factors will manifest itself in favorable development
options of the Russian economy and the vagaries of international oil markets.
Includes the following main directions of development of oil transportation systems:
• North-Baltic Sea area - the second stage of the Baltic Pipeline System to increase
the power lines to 62 million tons per year and create a favorable and optimistic
variants of socio-economic development of a new pipeline to export oil
transshipment complex in the Kola Peninsula (up to 120 million tons a year);
• Caspian - Black Sea - Mediterranean area - the development of Caspian oil transit
routes of the CIS countries by increasing the capacity of the pipeline Atyrau -
Samara 25 - 30 million tons per year and oil marine terminals in Novorossiysk and
Tuapse to 59 million tons a year, as well as reaching the design capacity of the
pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (67 million tons per year);
• stable, uninterrupted and cost-effectively meet the domestic and external demand
for gas;
• development of a unified gas supply system and its expansion to the east of
Russia, the gain on that basis, the integration regions of the country;
• providing a stable income to the revenue of the consolidated budget and stimulate
demand for the products of allied industries (metallurgy, engineering, and others);
• rational use of proven gas reserves, to ensure the expanded reproduction of raw
materials industries;
• resource and energy conservation, reducing waste and reducing costs at all
stages of the process for the preparation of inventories, production and
transportation of gas;
• Integrated extraction and use of all valuable components associated and natural
gas;
Future levels of gas production in Russia will largely be determined by the same
factors as the oil, but more important will be the gas prices. The projected gas
production in the country will vary significantly depending on whether one or another
variant of socio-economic development of Russia. The optimistic and favorable
development options, gas production in Russia could reach about 645 - 665 billion
m ³ in 2010 and increase to 710 - 730 billion m ³ 2020 (11). For a moderate version
of the gas production is projected to amount to 635 billion m ³ in 2010 and to 680
billion m ³ by 2020. With the developments on the critical variant gas production in
the country begins to shrink in the near future and is stabilized by 2010 at 555 - 560
billion m ³ per year. And only in the second decade will increase gas production to
achieve that by 2020 the level of the first half of the 90's (610 billion m ³).
• use of technology and engineering re-injection of gas or other agents into the
reservoir when the deposits, as well as the transition to a low-temperature
processes;
• creation of highly corrosion-resistant pipes for gas pipelines based on the new
pipe steels and polymeric materials in order to significantly extend the turnaround
time of their operation.
Achievement of planned levels of gas production in the country and the appropriate
development of geological exploration and transportation infrastructure (including
construction of new pipelines in eastern Russia) requires the substantial growth in
the sector attracted investments. In this case, the main source of capital
investments will own the company, as well as credit facilities, including the
conditions of project financing. Calculations show that the provision of adequate
investment growth requires an increase in gas prices to 40 - 41 U.S. dollars per
1000 m ³ by 2006 (forecast) to 59 - $ 64 per 1000 m ³ in 2010 (excluding VAT,
payment of transportation of gas through gas distribution networks and supply and
marketing services). The envisaged scenario conditions of socio-economic
development of the growth dynamics of gas prices in the period up to 2006 lags
behind these guidelines. In the absence of compensation to the emerging shortage
of investment in the next period will increase the risk of insufficient development of
the industry that may require increased imports of gas from Central Asian states, or
limit its exports. In order to reliably meet the needs of the economy in Gaza, to
enhance the functioning and development of gas industry is necessary to implement
long-term state policy, which provides:
• providing favorable treatment to developing the gas industry through the creation
of conditions for realization of industrial and investment potential of all stakeholders
of the gas market, including independent gas producers;
• obtaining the maximum benefits from gas exports and reduce potential losses of
export earnings from the transition to the spot gas trading in Europe by maintaining
a single channel of exports of natural gas and long-term contracts;
• state support for mutually beneficial long-term contracts to import natural gas at a
cost savings of their own resources and increase the reliability of hydrocarbon
Russian consumers, consumer countries - members of the Commonwealth of
Independent States and foreign countries;
• formation and development of gas market through the creation of equal conditions
for all producers and consumers.
Reform of the domestic gas market will be in accordance with Russian legislation
and wear smooth, progressive character. In this case, provides:
• gradual increase of gas prices on the domestic market, the transition to the sale of
gas at market prices to ensure self-financing entities of the market, an objective
assessment of consumer qualities of gas;
4. Coal industry
• reliable supply of economy and population with high-quality solid fuel and its
products;
• sustainable and safe development of the coal industry on the basis of modern
scientific and technological capabilities and technologies that meet environmental
standards.
• establishment of legal and economic conditions for Russia's needs in the solid
fuel, based on effective use of the industry;
• development of basic coal mining areas and fields in Siberia, the Far East and
European Russia, the expansion of mining with favorable geological conditions;
Projected coal production in the country, as well as other energy sources will vary
depending on the option or the other socio-economic development of Russia, but all
options are more rapid growth in coal consumption in comparison with other fossil
fuels. The optimistic and favorable development options, coal production in Russia
may reach 300 - 330 million tons in 2010 and increase to 400 - 430 million tons by
2020 (Fig. 12). In moderate and critical versions of coal mining in the country will be
270 - 310 million tons in 2010 and 300 - 375 million tons in 2020. The coal industry
has a sufficient amount of geological reserves of coal and manufacturing capacity
for the task, so the specific amounts of production will be adjusted depending on
economic demand for solid fuels. Although the envisaged levels of coal production
and proven reserves are provided, but this does not preclude the need for some
additional exploration work. Feature of the consumption of coking coal due to the
transfer of the undertakings in possession of metallurgical holding companies is
their dependence on software development industry. It is expected that the
extraction of coking coal in the country will grow at a slower rate than the production
of steam coal, and may reach in 2010 some 70 million tons, while in 2020 75 - 80
million tons increase in consumption and production of thermal coal will be
determined following economic and natural geological factors:
• increasing coal production primarily in the Kuznetsk and Kansk-Achinsk, the most
favorable conditions for the country's high-quality and cost coal fuel;
The overall production of brown coal will be driven by the pace of development of
the Kansk-Achinsk, as well as development of such promising fields as Mugunskoe
and Kharanorskaya in the Chita region, Erkovetskoe the Far East, Luchegorsk and
Pavlovsk in Primorsky Krai. In any embodiment of the proportion of brown coal is
not less than one-third of coal mining in the country. In general, depending on the
version of coal (coking and thermal) will be:
• in the Kuznetsk Basin - 150 - 160 million tons in 2010 and 170 - 180 million tons in
2020;
• the fields in Eastern Siberia - about 40 million tons in 2010 and 45 - 50 million tons
in 2020;
• in the fields of the Far East - some 35 million tons in 2010 and 40 - 50 million tons
in 2020;
• in the pools and fields of the European part of Russia - 35 - 40 million tons in 2010
and about 35 - 45 million tons in 2020.
The main direction of improving the technological structure of the coal production is
to increase the proportion of opencast mining with bringing it to 64% in 2000 (65%
in 2002) to 75-80% by 2020. In 2001 - 2020 years to ensure the growth of
production at a moderate version of the development will need to enter about 130
million tons of new capacity, including in the Kuznetsk Basin - 55 million tons and
Kansk-Achinsk - 40 million tons of the optimistic version of the need for
commissioning of new capacity will be 200 million tons of them in the Kuznetsk
Basin - 75 million tons, Kansk-Achinsk - 70 million tons in the fields of the Far East -
up to 20 million tons of long-term state policy in the coal sector, aimed at creating
conditions for stable development of the industry, provides three stages:
State support for the industry will be limited to funding the completion of the
elimination of most unprofitable mines and cuts, subsidizing the first phase of
interest rates on borrowed organizations sector loans for production development.
In addition, in the period to 2010 will require state support for projects for the
creation of clean coal technology and production of coal (synthetic liquid fuel, gas,
carbon fiber and others). Significant change in the territorial structure of coal
production and consumption leads to increased inter-regional shipments of solid
fuel primarily in the East - West from 65 million tons in 2002 to 90 million tons in
2010 and 130 million tons in 2020 (the optimistic version of ). To solve the problem
of inter-regional traffic associated with the additional supply of coal production at
thermal power plants in the Urals and the center, as well as the ports of the Baltic
and Black seas to increase carrying capacity of railways in the western direction at
70 million tons per year. In order to increase exports of coal products being
upgraded and increase the capacity of these ports, as East, Vanino, Ust-Luga and
the deep-water port of Murmansk. Planned construction on the Black Sea coast a
new port with a high coal terminal. It is advisable to resume work on the creation of
pipelines for transportation of heavy coal slurry. Scientific-technical and innovation
policy in the coal industry provides:
• Increased concentration of coking coal to 100% and thermal coal (except lignite)
to 50%;
5. Electric Power
• Maintain integrity and development of a unified energy system of the country, its
integration with other power systems on the Eurasian continent;
Given the projected volume of demand for electricity in the optimistic and favorable
option of the total electricity production may increase as compared with the year
2000 more than 1,2 times by 2010 (to 1070 billion kWh) and 1.6 times by 2020 year
(up to 1,365 billion kWh). For a moderate version of the economic development of
electricity production will be respectively 1,015 billion kWh and 1215 billion kWh
(Fig. 13). Ensure a level of electricity requires a number of problems that are
systemic in nature, - the restriction of the power transmission via electric power
lines, the aging of main power equipment, technological backwardness,
unsustainable fuel mix, inefficient use of installed generating capacity.
Fig. 13. Electricity production, billion kWh
Remain unused power capacity of Siberian hydro and thermal power stations
("trapped" power in this region is about 7 - 10 million kWh). Therefore, a strategic
objective is the development of inter-system electric power lines 500 - 1150 kV to
enhance the reliability of parallel operation of interconnected power system of
Siberia with the power systems of the European part of Russia and with the united
energy system of the Far East. This will help avoid costly transportation of coal from
the Kuzbass and KATEK through their use in local thermal power plants with the
issuance of 5 - 6 million kw to the west and 2 - 3 million kilowatts - to the east. In
addition, the use of hydroelectric capacity maneuver in the Angara-Yenisei cascade
relieve tension control load curve in the power of the European part of Russia.
Depreciation of the active part of the funds in the electric power is 60-65%, including
in rural distribution networks - over 75%. Our equipment, a technical basis of
electric power, outdated, inferior to modern demands and world's best products. It is
therefore necessary not only to maintain efficiency, but also a substantial renovation
of basic production assets on the basis of new techniques and technologies of
production and distribution of electricity and heat. The presence in the power
systems obsolete, worn-out equipment, which has already exceeded 15% of all
facilities, and lack of opportunity to restore it due to technological failures, accidents
and, consequently, reduced reliability of electricity supply. Unsustainable fuel mix
due to pricing policies pursued in the primary energy for power plants. Coal prices
on average 1.5 times higher than the price of gas. Under such circumstances, and
because of the large capital-intensive coal-fired power plants, they become
uncompetitive and can not develop, which could aggravate the current situation in
recent years, when the fuel mix of thermal power plants the share of electricity
generation by gas exceeded 60%. For the development of a unified energy system
of Russia provides for the construction of transmission lines in the volume providing
its stable and reliable operation and removal of technical constraints to the
development of a competitive electricity market and power. At the core of the mains
Unified Energy System of Russia must be based on the following principles:
• flexibility, which allows for phased development and the ability to adapt to
changing operating conditions (load growth, the development of power, reverse
power flows, implementation of new international agreements for the supply of
electricity);
• Gradual "superstructure" core network unified energy system over high voltage
lines;
• control the main power grid through the use of forced flow distribution of electricity.
Basis of strategic networks Unified Energy System of Russia until 2020 will be a line
of 500 - 750 kV. The total input power lines 330 kV and above by 2020 should reach
depending on the variant of 25 - 35 thousand kilometers. Development of a unified
power grid of the country will be under the control of the federal grid company and
system operator (with the state share in both - 75% plus 1 share), but will be
retained and provided with a vertical network management. To ensure the projected
levels of electricity and heat consumption by the optimistic and favorable option to
develop generating capacity from power plants in Russia (with the replacement and
upgrading) in 2003 - 2020, estimated at not less than 177 million kW, including
hydro- pumped storage power plants - 11,2 million kWh, nuclear - 23 million kW of
heat - 143 million kWh (one with combined cycle and gas turbine units - 37 million
kW), with a moderate version of the commissioning of the generating capacity will
amount to 121 million . kW, including hydro and pumped storage power plants - 7
million kWh, nuclear - 17 million kWh and heat - 97 million kWh (one with combined
cycle and gas turbine - 31,5 million kWh). These values can be reduced if a
decision to extend the service life of existing generating capacity, but it will
decrease the reliability of power supply and efficiency of power plants, increase fuel
consumption, increase the volume of inputs generating capacity in the subsequent
period. Development of power in this period will start from the following
economically reasonable priorities spatial distribution of generating capacity:
• In the European part of Russia - the modernization of thermal power stations with
gas to the replacement of steam-powered turbines in combined-cycle and the
maximum development of nuclear power plants;
• in Siberia - the development of thermal power plants on coal and hydroelectric
power;
• Far East - the development of hydropower, thermal power plants on coal and gas
(in cities).
The basis of the electricity will power plants, whose share in the structure of the
installed capacity of the industry will remain at 60-70%. Electricity generation in
thermal power plants by 2020 will increase by 1.4 times compared with 2000.
Structure spent fuel at thermal power plants will change in the direction of reducing
the share of natural gas by 2020 and increase the share of coal, and the ratio
between gas and coal will be determined by prevailing prices for natural gas and
coal. The determining factor is the price of natural gas, which should be gradually
increased to a level that ensures the development of the gas industry. In order for
coal-fired power plants could compete with gas-fired power plants in the emerging
market of electricity in Russia, the price of gas should be 1.6 - 2 times higher coal
prices. This price ratio will reduce the share of gas in the fuel consumption by
thermal power plants. As a result, the average electricity tariff for all categories of
consumers is estimated at 4 - 4.5 cents / kWh by 2020. Necessary to eliminate
cross-subsidies and ensure differentiation of tariffs depending on the daily and
seasonal schedules covering the load, as is customary in international practice, as
the cost of producing electricity from expensive peak generation capacity is several
times higher than the production costs of the basic capacities of nuclear and
thermal power plants . In addition, provides discounts on energy-intensive
consumers. Development scenarios for power system connected with the possibility
of radical changes in the conditions of fuel supply of thermal power plants in
European countries, to overcome the year 2010 exceeded the rate of growth trends
in the volume of equipment of power plants, developed its resources, over the pace
of its withdrawal from the work and updates require the early introduction of
scientific and technological Progress and new technologies for power generation.
For power plants operating on gas, these technologies are combined cycle, gas
turbine add-steam power units and gas turbines with heat recovery. Power plants
using solid fuels - clean coal technologies in a circulating fluidized bed, and later -
coal gasification using generator gas in combined cycle plants. New coal-fired
thermal power stations in large cities and agricultural areas should be equipped with
desulphurization. The transition from steam turbine thermal power plants on gas to
steam will provide increased efficiency of plants up to 50%, and in the long term -
up to 60% or more. The second direction of improving the thermal efficiency of
thermal power plants is the construction of new coal-fired units that use the
technology of supercritical steam parameters, with an efficiency 45-46%, thus
reducing the specific fuel consumption for electricity generation on solid fuel with
360 grams of fuel per 1 kWh in 2000 to 310 grams of fuel per 1 kWh in 2010 and
280 grams of fuel per 1 kWh in 2020. Important role in reducing fuel consumption
used for electricity and thermal energy in the electricity sector will play a central
heating, ie generation of electricity at thermal power plants with heat recovery
worked in steam-power, gas turbine or a combined gas-steam cycle. An important
direction in the electric power in modern conditions is the development of distributed
generation on the basis of the construction of small power plants, primarily of small
thermal power plants with combined-cycle, gas turbine and other advanced
technologies. Gas turbine, gas-and steam power plants, service-oriented
consumers with heat loads of low and medium concentrations (up to 10 - 50 Gcal /
h), known as cogeneration, will provide first decentralized heating sector. In
addition, part of the district heating and industrial boilers will be reconstructed
(where feasible and economically justified) in thermal power plants of small
capacity. As a result, the development of district heating and cogeneration will
increase the share of independent joint-stock companies of power and electrification
of producers of electricity and heat will increase the competition of producers of
electrical and thermal energy. To carry out an innovative program to implement a
set of industry research and development in the following areas:
• expanding the resource base and increase regional power supply of fuel through
the development of efficient clean combustion Kansk-Achinsk and low-grade coal
eastern regions of Russia in the boilers of steam-turbine power units with
supercritical steam parameters and the use of coal combustion technologies,
including the "ring" furnace in molten slag in the furnaces with circulating fluidized
bed, and under pressure;
• for hydro companies with state participation - along with those sources may create
and use a dedicated investment fund, formed at the expense of profit hydropower;
• for the Federal Grid Company and System Operator - Centralized investment
funds are included in the tariffs for transmission and system services.
Need to modernize municipal power, including by attracting private capital into this
potentially attractive area in terms of investments and economic activity on the basis
of reform and modernization of housing and communal complex of the Russian
Federation with a unitary transformation of municipal utilities that provide electricity
and public utilities of cities, in public companies and their subsequent integration
with the Joint Stock Power and Electrification, including the use of concession,
lease or other control mechanisms utilities infrastructure. In order to attract large
scale investments in power generation requires a fundamental reform of the sector
and relevant government tariff policy. In accordance with Federal Law "On Power
Restructuring is scheduled to perform on the following principles:
• Ensure all producers and consumers have equal access to market infrastructure;
The main objective of the reforms in the electricity industry is the development of
competition in potentially competitive activities - generation and distribution of
electricity in those areas where it is technologically and economically feasible, which
in turn will create conditions for more efficient economic activity in the generation,
transmission and distribution electricity. In this case, it shall be steady and stable
operation of the Unified Energy System of the Russian Federation, reliable
electricity and heating regions of the Russian Federation. Government of the
Russian Federation adopted the basic directions of reforming the electricity sector,
involving the implementation of reforms in the sector in three stages. In the first
stage is not carried out fully liberalized electricity market, thus avoiding the
overlapping of two complex processes - the restructuring of enterprises and market
liberalization. Created a wholesale market in volume sales up 15% of the energy
produced by power plants that will have the first phase to work out a model of a
competitive wholesale market. In the second stage are created and developed
wholesale and retail electricity markets. As the market development and
infrastructure will be an increase in the number of market participants. Foundation
created by the market will be a combination of organized (exchange) of electricity
trade with the system of bilateral agreements, giving market participants to self-
formation of economic ties. An effective regulatory and supervisory systems
established in the first stage, thereby reducing the risk of transition to market
liberalization. In the third stage is supposed to create conditions for attracting
significant investment into the capital of electric utilities, complete clearance of the
electricity infrastructure and the transition to sustainable development. The reform
of the industry will create conditions for competition, power companies on domestic
and foreign markets, which will enhance the export potential of Russia. In this
respect, particular importance will be efforts to be included in the parallel operation
of electric power systems of Russia and Europe, as well as exporting electricity to
the Asia-Pacific region from Siberia and the Far East with the construction of export
of power lines. Development of exports of electricity is a strategic objective,
because, in contrast to the export of hydrocarbon resources, is a promotion on
foreign markets high-tech high-end products. In this regard, the State will support
the expansion of exports of electricity. In view of liberalization and de-
monopolization of the wholesale electricity market (power) and the principles of
electricity sector reform in Russia, control and regulating the state's role in the
export of electricity will be to ensure non-discriminatory access of producers to
export, as well as organizing and implementing anti-dumping and antitrust
procedures. Based on the principles of economic feasibility for the formation of
management strategies in the electricity sector, as well as on unconditional
fulfillment of the principles of energy security of the Russian Federation, the State
will encourage the judicious combination of export and import of electricity.
Electricity imports in the first phase of restructuring will be justified in cases where it
would help to avoid abrupt increases in tariffs on the Russian domestic market, as
well as overcome the shortage in some segments of the wholesale market during
the renovation and construction of new generating capacity.
In Russia, operated 30 nuclear power units at ten nuclear power plants with total
installed capacity of 22.2 GW. Among them are 14 units with VVER, 11 power units
with RBMK reactors, with 4 power reactors GWE with channel water-graphite
reactors, and 1 unit of fast-breeder - BN-600. Electricity generation Russian nuclear
power plants in 2002 was 140 billion kWh, utilization of installed capacity of nuclear
power plants - 72%. Nuclear Energy in 1998, provides an annual production growth
averaging about 8 billion kilowatt hours in the presence of a reserve to increase
electricity production by 20 billion kWh During this period, made commissioning of
Unit 1 GW at the Volgodonsk nuclear power plant, provides complete construction
and to introduce up to 2011, the six power units with capacity to 6 gigawatts,
providing the average growth rate of 0.7 gigawatts of power, and electricity - up to
5% annually. The share of nuclear power currently stands at 3.5% of the
consumption of energy resources, 11% of installed capacity and 16% of electricity in
Russia (21% in European countries). The main directions of development of nuclear
energy are defined by the Russian Government approved the strategy of
development of nuclear energy in Russia in the first half of the XXI century. As a
result of multi-factor optimization of energy balance is determined that the increased
needs of the economy of the country's energy appropriate to a large extent be
covered by the growth of electricity generation by nuclear power plants (mainly in
the European part), which should increase the optimistic and favorable development
options with the 130 billion . kWh in 2000 (140 billion kWh in 2002) to 195 billion
kWh in 2010 and to 300 billion kWh in 2020. In addition, it is envisaged the
development of thermal energy from nuclear sources of energy to 30 million Gcal /
year. For a moderate version of the economic development of electricity production
at nuclear power plants is reduced to 230 billion kWh in 2020. The possibility of
additional increase in electricity production at nuclear power plants up to 270 billion
kWh of power facilities connected with the creation of "nuclear power stations -
pumped storage power plant and increased production of heat in areas where
existing and new nuclear power plants. As a result, electricity production at nuclear
power stations will increase from 16% in 2000 to 23% in 2020 (the European side -
up to 32%). To achieve these indicators will need to increase the capacity of nuclear
power plants and energy production almost in 2 times (the rate of new capacity - up
to 2 GW per year). At existing nuclear power plants provided further improving their
operational security, including through the modernization and life extension units
(10 - 20 years), with subsequent replacement by new, mostly on existing or
prepared grounds. The planned volume of development of capacities power with
increasing proportion of the base power nuclear power plants in the European part
of Russia requires the optimization of systems and modes of generation sources in
the variable part of the graphs of electrical loads in the autumn and winter. To do
this, provided the development of power grid facilities, to create the necessary
capacity pumped storage power plants, development of new fuel assemblies and
the modernization of automatic control systems at nuclear power plants for further
expansion of range of the system load control without sacrificing reliability and
operational safety. The main tasks in the development of nuclear energy is to
increase its efficiency and competitiveness, reducing unit costs of reproduction and
development capacity, while ensuring compliance with modern safety standards
and regulations. Nuclear power, which is state owned and incorporated in the state
generating company, shall participate fully in the formed competitive electricity
market. Specified parameters for the development of nuclear energy is determined
to contain the rising rates of energy production from 1.4 cents per 1 kWh in 2003 to
2.4 cents per 1 kWh in 2015, providing tariff advantage over fossil fuel power plants.
Distinctive features of the industry are:
• A single set of "fuel and raw materials - energy production - waste management;
• opportunity to develop the market of thermal energy for the social sphere to the
replacement of inefficient sources of heat;
7. Heat supply
• Develop program of reforming heating in Russia and the creation of the state
system of process control heat;
◦ upgrade, expand, and if necessary the creation of the regulatory framework for
solving problems of heat supply forces and resources of all producers of heat
energy. This should create an organizational, legal and economic mechanisms to
develop and implement new comprehensive master plans for electricity, gas and
heat supply of cities, taking into account the optimal structure of energy resources,
degree of centralization of district heating and district heating, which should ensure
the minimization of the rates for production and transfer of thermal energy;
◦ creation of information and analytical database and monitoring of all existing
heating systems to determine the real costs of energy spent on heating, with
subsequent correction (if necessary) the directions of development of heat supply in
cities, regions and the country as a whole;
◦ introduction of tariffs for thermal energy release rates for power and energy, as
well as differentiated tariffs in terms of consumption, time of year, the number of
hours of use maximum loads, and above all - alone in the cities (and possibly to
some sources) to avoid cross- subsidizing inefficient sources of heat due to highly
profitable;
◦ improving the efficiency of energy sources and heat networks by reducing the
costs of the heating system as a whole, private investment, creating conditions for
the conversion of heat into a sphere, an attractive business environment;
◦ development of market relations and the ownership change that will affect the
structure of production of thermal energy in the direction of decentralization and less
dependence on Joint Stock Power and Electrification;
◦ providing improved technologies for heating and heat, reducing the production
cost of thermal energy through the introduction of gas turbine, combined cycle, gas-
piston and gazovintovyh CHP various capacities with the displacement of existing
gas boiler in the area of peak thermal loads;
◦ provision taking into account the harsh climatic conditions and the crisis in the
sector of municipal heat supply in each heating system spare capacity and stocks of
fuel, depending on the duration of low temperatures and their absolute values.
Heat a northern country like Russia should be among the top priorities of state
economic and energy policies. In this case, the main task is to create a system that
ensures the coordinated work of various public and private organizations for the
benefit of consumers. After creating such a system of government should remain
the development of strategic directions of development of heat supply, analysis of
potential problems and finding solutions for them, as well as government oversight.
Projected to increase heat production (Fig. 14): in 2010 - by 9-13% and in 2020 - by
22-34% more than in 2000. At the same time provides for the growth of real
consumption of thermal energy in the 1,4 - 1,5 times by reducing wastage and the
use of high energy saving potential in the energy sector. The increase in heat
production for the period up to 2020 - 22-34% losses will be reduced to 55,4-60%
Fig. 14. Heat production in the period before 2020 (Moderate and optimistic
variants)
Since the heating in Russia is of great social value, increasing its reliability, quality
and cost is a non-alternative task. Any failure to provide the public and other heat
consumers adversely affect the economy and increase social tensions. Therefore,
in this perspective the state should remain a major subject of economic relations in
the industry. The proposed levels of development of heat, the radical modernization
and technical re-equipment industry will require a significant investment growth. The
main source of capital investment will be equity of the industry, government
(municipal) funding, loan funds, including those raised under the project financing.
• reducing the environmental load from the activities of the fuel and energy complex;
At a regional energy policy is important the optimal use of renewable energy and
local fuels. The need to use these types of energy is determined by their significant
role in solving the following problems:
• providing sustainable heat and power of the population and production in the
areas of decentralized energy supply, especially in the Far North and similar areas.
The volume of importation of fuel in these areas is about 7 million tons of petroleum
products, and more than 23 million tons of coal;
• Reducing emissions from power plants in the cities and towns affected by
environmental problems, as well as in the rest places.
• Expanding the use of sod peat as a domestic fuel by increasing its production - up
to 3 million tons;
This kind of fuel like firewood, currently used by more than 5 million families.
Expended for this purpose more than 50 million m ³ of wood. Centrally
toplivosnabzhayuschimi are sold around 6 million m ³ of firewood. For the shortfall
of the fuel necessary to maintain the existing capacity of the firewood and the
creation of new ones on the basis of forestry, timber and fuel companies. Important
local fuel, particularly for heating, are the municipal waste collection. Necessary to
create conditions for their inclusion in the energy balance and solutions at the same
time environmental issues. Decentralized consumers can also use wood and
agricultural waste. To overcome the backlog of Russia in the use of renewable
energy, conservation of exhaustible reserves of fossil fuels for future generations, a
significant improvement in power away from the grid of human settlements, as well
as improving the environmental situation in environmentally stressed areas of need:
• Develop and adopt a federal law on renewable energy "and the act of the
Government of the Russian Federation;
• Provide state support for the creation intraseasonal reserves of peat and wood
fuels.
Every major region of Russia has its own characteristics of fuel and energy. Their
correct and timely response - the basis of the successful implementation of national
energy policy. In the Central Federal District, the main activities are the
development of nuclear energy, reconstruction and modernization of refineries,
development of power generation capacity (modernization of existing hydraulic and
thermal power plants, commissioning of combined cycle gas turbines, increasing
inter-system and inter-state relations in the energy sector, including with Ukraine
and Belarus), infrastructure development, gas distribution networks. Energy policy
in the Northwest Federal District, will be the development of oil and gas industry on
the coast of the Arctic Ocean and the Arctic offshore to the formation of this new
ports in the Baltic and Barents Sea suitable for oil and petroleum products, the
development of electric all based on various types of generating capacity ( large
and small hydro, thermal and nuclear power plants) and a new network
construction, reconstruction and modernization of district heating systems in large
cities. Will be saved significant amounts of production and export of energy and
coking coal, including through the new port on the Baltic Sea, designed for the
export of coal products. An important development will be the gasification of almost
all regions of the district, including Karelia, Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions, as
well as separate areas of the Republic of Komi. Steps will be taken to ensure that
increasing the degree of energy independence of the Kaliningrad region on supplies
from neighboring countries by diversifying its fuel supply and the development of
local power base. In the Southern federal district will continue the development of oil
and gas transporting infrastructure, increasing refining capacity, reconstruction,
modernization and increase energy generation capacity. Will develop renewable
energy sources. In the Volga Federal District, the main directions of energy policy
will be to modernize and develop oil and gas companies, including oil refineries, as
well as the electricity, nuclear power plants and transmission lines that provide
electrical interconnections strengthening ties with the Southern and Central
Districts. In the Urals Federal District, the principal directions of energy development
will be oil and gas production, increasing refining capacity of hydrocarbons while
maintaining the role of the region's main base of hydrocarbon raw materials of the
country, providing large-scale technical re-equipment of electricity and heat,
increasing electricity generation from coal and nuclear power plants, development
interconnections of electrical connections, including with neighboring regions. In the
Siberian Federal District, priority will be given to diversification in the energy sector,
the development of major coal basins of Russia and the formation of a new major oil
and gas center on the basis of hydrocarbon resources of the Irkutsk region,
Krasnoyarsk region and the south-west of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) with the
corresponding development of pipelines, optimization coal production and use in the
Irkutsk region, hydropower development and construction of transmission lines,
connecting Siberia to European Russia and the Far East. Will be adopted by a
range of measures aimed at significantly reducing the negative impact of energy
sector companies on the environment, significant use of renewable energy sources
for the northern territories, the Baikal region and other areas of decentralized
electric all. In the Far Eastern Federal District will be overcome shortage of
electricity and heat by the end of construction Bureya hydropower and further
development of hydropower and power grids, gas Sakhalin and Kamchatka regions
of Primorye and Khabarovsk territories, promote renewable energy sources. The
region will continue development of the new oil base (including export value) on the
basis of hydrocarbon resources of the shelf. Sakhalin Island and the corresponding
development of energy transport infrastructure (main oil and gas pipelines, port
terminals). For all federal district general directions of energy policy are to increase
energy efficiency, an active energy conservation policy, and social issues. The
implementation of systematic measures of regional policy in the energy sector will
help to eliminate the main limitations of single energy market, a clear distinction
between the powers of the federal and regional authorities to create conditions for
intensive development of energy in the region, to smooth the unevenness in their
provision of energy.
Science, research and innovation activities in the fields of Energy is the foundation
to enhance the functioning of the energy sector. Scientific-technical and innovation
policy in the energy sector is based on the current achievements and forecast the
priorities of basic and applied the domestic and world science in the energy sector.
Development of basic research - an essential condition of new high technologies in
the energy sector of the Russian economy. Priorities of the state scientific-technical
and innovation policy in the sectors Energy in the forecast period are:
• improving all stages of the innovation process, increasing demand and utilization
of scientific results;
• harnessing the potential of international cooperation for the application of the best
world achievements and the withdrawal of domestic development to a higher level;
• maintain and develop human capacity and knowledge base, integration of science
and education.
• Funding for basic research in the energy sector, aimed at finding fundamentally
new ways to effectively meet energy needs;
In order to implement the priorities of science and technology policy in the energy
sector provides:
• create conditions to attract and keep talented young people in science and
technology;
• ensuring linkages and Research Training in nomenclature and the volume and
staffing needs for the implementation of major innovative projects of national
importance;
The development of fuel and energy sector, the introduction of new advanced
technologies make it necessary to improve existing and create new competitive
equipment and materials that meet the requirements of each part of production
chains, both for the production of traditional products FEC, and for its development
of new species.
• There are two-fold reduction of energy intensity of gross domestic product and a
corresponding increase in energy economy (the share of energy consumed in the
Distribution of Gross Domestic Product will decline from 22% in 2000 to 13-15% in
2020);
• The most effective way would be to meet domestic energy needs of the country's
primary energy resources (the demand for them in 2020 compared to 2000 will
amount to 27-40% with growth in gross domestic product of 2,3 - 3,3 times) ;
• provides for modest growth in 2001 - 2020's average per capita expenditure on
fuel and energy supply of the population (2,3 - 2,4 times) in advance of increasing
the incomes of the population (3,4 - 3,7 times);
• Annual revenues from the activities of TAC in 2010 will increase by 1.5 times with
an increase of one third of the tax revenue to the state budget while reducing the
share of fuel and energy (both capital-and energy-intensive complex) in industrial
production from 30% currently to 25-26% in 2010 and 18-20% in 2020, with the
growth of high technology and processing sectors with low power consumption;
• export of energy resources may increase in 2020 to 45-64%, which meets the
requirements of the stability of balance of payments, strengthen its economic
position and influence.
The gradual formation of the energy market with the development of appropriate
infrastructure will ensure the gradual rationalization of energy balance, self-
financing production and investment activities of organizations FEC. Scheduled until
2006, the dynamics of prices (tariffs) for products (services) of natural monopolies
will lead to a slight increase (5-8%) proportion of energy in the cost of production
and sales of energy-intensive industries and will keep inflation at a certain medium-
term program of the Government Russian Federation level. Projected growth in
domestic and external demand for energy and required to meet its energy sector
development define the following indicative levels of investment by 2020, which may
later be refined based on actual energy needs:
• in the gas industry - from 170 to 200 billion dollars (including $ 35 billion on the
program development of gas resources in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, to 70
billion dollars to implement programs of development of the Yamal Peninsula).
These funds will be generated through investment joint stock company Gazprom
and independent gas producers;
• in the oil sector - about 230 - 240 billion (equity oil companies and investors);
• in the electricity industry - 120 - 170 billion dollars, including construction and
upgrading of power generation capacity 100 - 140 billion dollars, of which 25 - $ 35
billion in nuclear power plants and 20 - $ 30 billion in development of electricity
supply (equity electric companies, investors' funds, and on the atomic and
hydroelectric power plants, as well as the Federal Grid Company - Tariff sources);
• in the coal industry - about $ 20 billion (investors' funds, equity private coal
companies and federal funds);
• in heat supply - about 70 billion U.S. dollars (funds of regional and municipal
budgets, pricing and sources of funds from investors);
• Allocate at every stage of the Energy Strategy of the major targets and the
concentration of the major resources available to achieve them.
УТВЕРЖДЕНА
распоряжением Правительства
Российской Федерации
от 28 августа 2003 г. № 1234
Энергетическая безопасность
Энергетическая эффективность
На этом этапе особое значение будут иметь программа повышения цен на газ
и механизмы минимизации негативных социально-экономических последствий
общего роста цен на энергоресурсы.
Нефтеперерабатывающая промышленность
• в Кузнецком бассейне – 150 - 160 млн. т в 2010 году и 170 - 180 млн. т в 2020
году;
• в Канско-Ачинском бассейне – 50 - 55 млн. т в 2010 году и 80 - 115 млн. т в
2020 году;
• на месторождениях Восточной Сибири – около 40 млн. т в 2010 году и 45 -
50 млн. т в 2020 году;
• на месторождениях Дальнего Востока – около 35 млн. т в 2010 году и 40 - 50
млн. т в 2020 году;
• в бассейнах и на месторождениях европейской части России – 35 - 40 млн. т
в 2010 году и около 35 - 45 млн. т в 2020 году.
Основным направлением совершенствования технологической структуры
угольного производства является увеличение удельного веса открытого
способа добычи с доведением его с 64% в 2000 году (65% в 2002 году) до 75-
80% к 2020 году. В 2001 - 2020 годах для обеспечения роста добычи по
умеренному варианту развития потребуется ввести около 130 млн. т новых
мощностей, из них в Кузнецком бассейне – 55 млн. т и в Канско-Ачинском – 40
млн. т. При оптимистическом варианте развития потребность во вводе новых
мощностей составит 200 млн. т, из них в Кузнецком бассейне – 75 млн. т, в
Канско-Ачинском - 70 млн. т, на месторождениях Дальнего Востока – до 20
млн. т. Долгосрочная государственная политика в угольном секторе,
направленная на создание условий, обеспечивающих стабильное развитие
отрасли, предусматривает три этапа: