ACCIONES

INDICE
No FECHA GRUPOSU
COLCAP
RA
1 20160623 1,329.58 38,060 Coeficiente de correlación (r)
2 20160624 1,317.71 38,200 Intercepto Eje
3 20160627 1,302.39 37,620 Pendiente recta regresión
4 20160628 1,303.28 37,780 Coeficiente de determinación (R2)
5 20160629 1,311.52 38,060
6 20160630 1,313.18 38,300 Ecuación de la recta de ajuste
7 20160701 1,312.98 37,940
(𝑅_𝐴 )  ̂= (∝ ) +
 ̂ 𝛽  ̂𝑅_�
8 20160705 1,303.46 38,080
9 20160706 1,310.00 38,500
𝑅_𝐴=19,368+13.9881𝑅_�
10 20160707 1,301.76 38,040
11 20160708 1,297.64 37,660
El intercepto de la recta de regresión
12 20160711 1,306.76 38,200 indica que para una variación de 0.000
13 20160712 1,320.30 38,740 en las acciones del grupo SURA se espera
14 20160713 1,325.79 39,220 un indice COLCAP de 19,368
15 20160714 1,332.85 39,380
La pendiente de la recta nos indica que
16 20160715 1,339.60 39,680 por cada punto de aumento en la
17 20160718 1,339.00 39,800 variación de las acciones del grupo SURA
18 20160719 1,337.80 39,980 se espera un aumento de 13.9881 en el
índice COLCAP
19 20160721 1,328.61 39,840
20 20160722 1,332.85 39,900
21 20160725 1,323.41 39,700
22 20160726 1,315.69 38,800
23 20160727 1,321.65 39,060
24 20160728 1,317.44 38,980
25 20160729 1,308.22 38,320
26 20160801 1,306.02 38,620
27 20160802 1,303.35 38,580
28 20160803 1,304.62 38,000
29 20160804 1,307.59 38,200
30 20160805 1,309.48 38,280
31 20160808 1,314.34 38,400
32 20160809 1,323.93 38,660
33 20160810 1,322.33 38,560
34 20160811 1,327.89 38,480
35 20160812 1,323.66 38,500
36 20160816 1,342.69 38,620
37 20160817 1,348.89 38,860
38 20160818 1,348.01 38,560
39 20160819 1,349.79 38,620
40 20160822 1,349.21 38,700
41 20160823 1,358.62 38,860
42 20160824 1,369.65 39,080
43 20160825 1,370.82 38,700
44 20160826 1,373.42 39,000
45 20160829 1,371.99 38,860
46 20160830 1,373.85 39,180
47 20160831 1,380.18 38,640
48 20160901 1,379.41 38,620
49 20160902 1,394.38 38,980
50 20160905 1,397.92 39,000
51 20160906 1,402.83 39,360
52 20160907 1,417.57 39,880
53 20160908 1,416.16 39,680
54 20160909 1,397.90 39,040
55 20160912 1,386.73 38,820
56 20160913 1,367.18 38,420
57 20160914 1,373.22 38,720
58 20160915 1,373.44 38,820
59 20160916 1,354.63 38,800
60 20160919 1,354.67 38,600
61 20160920 1,341.36 38,200
62 20160921 1,341.29 38,000
63 20160922 1,358.03 38,800
64 20160923 1,351.60 38,500
65 20160926 1,346.67 38,700
66 20160927 1,333.85 38,380
67 20160928 1,354.98 38,420
68 20160929 1,345.00 38,160
69 20160930 1,338.83 37,620
70 20161003 1,330.57 37,640
71 20161004 1,335.10 38,020
72 20161005 1,341.33 38,400
73 20161006 1,343.44 38,300
74 20161007 1,348.20 38,020
 75 20161010 1,350.33 38,380
76 20161011 1,358.07 38,500
77 20161012 1,354.61 38,700
78 20161013 1,354.40 38,540
79 20161014 1,346.07 38,080
80 20161018 1,355.72 38,280
81 20161019 1,364.02 38,300
82 20161020 1,361.15 38,300
83 20161021 1,362.97 38,500
84 20161024 1,359.20 38,380
85 20161025 1,356.98 38,140
86 20161026 1,357.49 38,000
87 20161027 1,359.70 38,200
88 20161028 1,360.96 38,480
89 20161031 1,365.53 38,780
90 20161101 1,370.75 38,600
91 20161102 1,368.45 38,380
92 20161103 1,356.01 38,000
93 20161104 1,345.66 37,800
94 20161108 1,354.91 38,000
95 20161109 1,354.68 38,140
96 20161110 1,319.51 37,000
97 20161111 1,299.03 35,960
98 20161115 1,297.07 35,500
99 20161116 1,300.09 35,500
### 20161117 1,305.81 36,180
### 20161118 1,307.44 36,420
### 20161121 1,312.87 36,720
### 20161122 1,307.21 36,700
### 20161123 1,308.87 36,960
### 20161124 1,308.94 36,740
### 20161125 1,295.67 36,480
### 20161128 1,289.97 36,400
### 20161129 1,271.11 35,300
### 20161130 1,286.07 35,500
### 20161201 1,297.33 35,900
### 20161202 1,306.56 36,300
### 20161205 1,314.74 36,640
### 20161206 1,316.82 36,380
### 20161207 1,314.38 35,680
### 20161209 1,324.80 36,660
### 20161212 1,323.19 36,300
### 20161213 1,335.46 37,000
### 20161214 1,325.78 37,000
### 20161215 1,339.89 37,480
### 20161216 1,341.58 37,400
### 20161219 1,340.08 38,000
### 20161220 1,345.87 38,420
### 20161221 1,342.25 38,240
### 20161222 1,340.06 37,640
### 20161223 1,330.31 36,500
### 20161226 1,341.31 37,140
### 20161227 1,339.06 37,500
### 20161228 1,353.65 38,100
### 20161229 1,351.68 38,200
### 20170102 1,345.89 37,980
### 20170103 1,354.82 38,000
### 20170104 1,373.04 38,800
### 20170105 1,377.88 38,600
### 20170106 1,374.08 38,500
### 20170110 1,372.50 38,200
### 20170111 1,375.14 38,300
### 20170112 1,369.64 38,200
### 20170113 1,369.62 38,480
### 20170116 1,361.05 37,860
### 20170117 1,361.48 38,040
### 20170118 1,360.54 38,380
### 20170119 1,359.60 38,500
### 20170120 1,354.35 38,260
### 20170123 1,355.43 38,400
### 20170124 1,366.91 38,840
### 20170125 1,365.24 38,880
### 20170126 1,371.38 38,820
### 20170127 1,372.59 39,100
### 20170130 1,364.90 39,300
### 20170131 1,357.47 39,000
### 20170201 1,357.83 39,060
### 20170202 1,366.79 39,460
### 20170203 1,369.79 39,480
### 20170206 1,367.92 39,440
### 20170207 1,360.65 39,300
### 20170208 1,350.27 38,800
### 20170209 1,345.97 38,260
### 20170210 1,347.40 38,260
### 20170213 1,351.36 38,480
### 20170214 1,320.97 37,660
### 20170215 1,334.88 38,000
### 20170216 1,344.46 38,440
### 20170217 1,341.83 38,740
### 20170220 1,340.99 38,500
### 20170221 1,336.52 38,100
### 20170222 1,331.20 37,700
### 20170223 1,341.65 37,500
### 20170224 1,333.57 37,220
### 20170227 1,334.45 36,880
### 20170228 1,326.31 36,580
### 20170301 1,328.63 36,780
### 20170302 1,326.81 36,920
### 20170303 1,329.58 36,820
### 20170306 1,334.02 37,340
### 20170307 1,332.81 37,280
### 20170308 1,324.54 37,040
### 20170309 1,330.35 37,480
### 20170310 1,335.67 37,900
### 20170313 1,342.42 38,300
### 20170314 1,317.98 37,800
### 20170315 1,329.96 38,260
### 20170316 1,342.21 38,500
### 20170317 1,337.29 38,000
### 20170321 1,343.97 38,500
### 20170322 1,351.16 38,860
### 20170323 1,359.19 39,280
### 20170324 1,355.53 39,040
### 20170327 1,356.01 38,900
### 20170328 1,363.61 39,100
### 20170329 1,364.61 39,200
### 20170330 1,369.88 39,100
### 20170331 1,365.61 39,080
### 20170403 1,368.39 38,900
### 20170404 1,368.12 39,000
### 20170405 1,371.46 38,920
### 20170406 1,370.05 39,000
### 20170407 1,368.98 39,280
### 20170410 1,375.90 39,500
### 20170411 1,374.43 39,120
### 20170412 1,378.28 39,360
### 20170417 1,371.98 38,720
### 20170418 1,371.75 39,200
### 20170419 1,363.44 39,100
### 20170420 1,363.34 38,900
### 20170421 1,362.33 38,900
### 20170424 1,366.49 38,920
### 20170425 1,372.42 38,900
### 20170426 1,374.66 39,080
### 20170427 1,362.45 38,440
### 20170428 1,371.54 38,900
### 20170502 1,373.17 38,640
### 20170503 1,370.13 38,420
### 20170504 1,376.63 38,940
### 20170505 1,384.92 39,000
### 20170508 1,403.19 39,300
### 20170509 1,407.13 39,260
### 20170510 1,414.84 39,300
### 20170511 1,421.84 39,500
### 20170512 1,443.56 40,000
### 20170515 1,458.09 40,200
### 20170516 1,449.37 39,800
### 20170517 1,437.84 39,860
### 20170518 1,429.41 39,740
### 20170519 1,436.19 38,600
### 20170522 1,436.81 39,000
### 20170523 1,444.14 39,200
### 20170524 1,446.19 39,180
### 20170525 1,444.39 39,200
### 20170526 1,448.93 39,380
### 20170530 1,444.09 39,380
### 20170531 1,439.48 38,600
### 20170601 1,442.83 38,980
### 20170602 1,441.81 38,780
### 20170605 1,445.06 38,800
### 20170606 1,456.53 39,000
### 20170607 1,451.37 38,900
### 20170608 1,450.26 38,720
### 20170609 1,450.45 38,900
### 20170612 1,446.91 38,800
### 20170613 1,450.43 38,900
### 20170614 1,456.73 39,000
### 20170615 1,456.39 39,180
### 20170616 1,464.77 38,940
### 20170620 1,450.82 38,620
### 20170621 1,436.70 38,780
### 20170622 1,435.57 38,960
### 20170623 1,435.12 38,800
 0.6191
19,368.63 El coeficiente de correlación entre dos variables nos indica si existe una
tendencia lineal entre estas.
13.9881
0.38330 Este coeficiente es adimensional y toma valores ente [-1, 1], indicando
que existe una relación lineal perfecta entre las variables si su valor es
recta de ajuste de -1 o 1.
Su signo indica si dicha relación lineal es directa (signo positivo) o
∝)+
 ̂ 𝛽  ̂𝑅_� inversa (signo negativo)

En nuestro caso el coeficiente de correlación entre el índice COLCAP y la

+13.9881𝑅_� Variación de la acciones del Grupo SURA es 0.6191, lo cual indica la
existencia de una relacionen lineal directa débil entre entras variables.
Se considera que hay una buena relación lineal si |r|≥ 0.70
recta de regresión
variación de 0.000
rupo SURA se espera
19,368

ecta nos indica que

e aumento en la
ones del grupo SURA
to de 13.9881 en el
 indica si existe una

te [-1, 1], indicando

iables si su valor es

a (signo positivo) o

l índice COLCAP y la
91, lo cual indica la
tre entras variables.
0.70
ACCIO NES G RU POSU RA

Diagrama de Dispersión. Indice COLCAP vs Variación Acciones SURA

41,000

40,000
f(x) = 13.9880770447x + 19368.6337678724
39,000 R² = 0.3832975987

38,000

37,000

36,000 Recta de mejor

ajuste
35,000

34,000

33,000

32,000
1,250.00 1,300.00 1,350.00 1,400.00 1,450.00 1,500.00

INDICE COLCAP
Resumen
Para realizar la siguiente pru
Estadísticas de la regresión Prueba de hipótesis el intercept
Coeficiente de correlación múlt0.6191103284
Coeficiente de determinación 0.3832975987 H0: B0 = 0
R^2 ajustado 0.3807804461 H1: B0 ≠ 0
Error típico 728.79289174
Observaciones 247

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de Suma de Promedio de
F
libertad cuadrados los cuadrados
Regresión 1 80878818.748 80878818.748 152.274
Residuos 245 130129074.37 531139.07906 Modelo Significativo
Total 246 211007893.12

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción 19368.6337679 1540.2318997 12.575141296 2.5865E-28
INDICE COLCA13.9880770447 1.1335606041 12.339946355 1.5726E-27

Análisis de los residuales

Pronóstico
Observación ACCIONES Residuos
GRUPOSURA
1 37966.901245 93.098755031
2 37800.8627704 399.13722955
3 37586.5654301 33.434569876
4 37599.0148187 180.98518131
5 37714.2765735 345.72342646
6 37737.4967814 562.50321856
7 37734.699166 205.30083397
8 37601.5326726 478.46732744
9 37693.0146964 806.98530357
10 37577.7529416 462.24705841
11 37520.1220642 139.87793584
12 37647.6933268 552.30667319
13 37837.09189 902.90811001
14 37913.886433 1306.113567
15 38012.6422569 1367.3577431
16 38107.061777 1572.938223
17 38098.6689307 1701.3310693
18 38081.8832383 1898.1167617
19 37953.3328102 1886.6671898
20 38012.6422569 1887.3577431
21 37880.5948096 1819.4051904
22 37772.6068548 1027.3931452
23 37855.975794 1204.024206
24 37797.0859896 1182.9140104
25 37668.1159193 651.88408071
26 37637.3421498 982.6578502
27 37599.9939841 980.00601591
28 37617.7588419 382.24115807
29 37659.3034308 540.69656924
30 37685.7408964 594.25910363
31 37753.7229508 646.27704919
32 37887.8686097 772.13139033
33 37865.4876864 694.5123136
34 37943.2613948 536.73860524
35 37884.0918289 615.90817114
36 38150.284935 469.71506497
37 38237.0110127 622.9889873
38 38224.7015049 335.2984951
39 38249.600282 370.39971796
40 38241.4871974 458.51280264
41 38373.1150023 486.88499765
42 38527.4034922 552.59650785
43 38543.7695423 156.23045771
44 38580.1385426 419.86145739
45 38560.1355924 299.86440756
46 38586.1534157 593.84658426
47 38674.6979434 -34.69794343
48 38663.9271241 -43.92712411
49 38873.3286375 106.67136253
50 38922.8464302 77.153569796
51 38991.5278885 368.47211151
52 39197.7121441 682.28785587
53 39177.9889555 502.0110445
54 38922.5666687 117.43333134
55 38766.3198481 53.680151926
56 38492.8529419 -72.85294185
57 38577.3409272 142.6590728
58 38580.4183042 239.58169585
 59 38317.3025749 482.69742506
60 38317.862098 282.13790198
61 38131.6807926 68.319207444
62 38130.7016272 -130.7016272
63 38364.8620369 435.13796311
64 38274.9187015 225.08129851
65 38205.9574817 494.04251834
66 38026.630334 353.36966605
67 38322.1984019 97.801598095
68 38182.597393 -22.597393
69 38096.2909576 -476.2909576
70 37980.7494412 -340.7494412
71 38044.1154303 -24.11543026
72 38131.2611502 268.73884976
73 38160.7759928 139.22400719
74 38227.3592395 -207.3592395
75 38257.1538436 122.84615635
76 38365.42156 134.57844003
77 38317.0228134 382.9771866
78 38314.0853172 225.91468278
79 38197.5646354 -117.5646354
80 38332.5495789 -52.54957892
81 38448.6506184 -148.6506184
82 38408.5048373 -108.5048373
83 38433.9631375 66.036862508
84 38381.228087 -1.228087033
85 38350.174556 -210.174556
86 38357.3084753 -357.3084753
87 38388.2221256 -188.2221256
88 38405.8471026 74.152897368
89 38469.7726147 310.22738527
90 38542.7903769 57.2096231
91 38510.6177997 -130.6177997
92 38336.6061213 -336.6061213
93 38191.8295238 -391.8295238
94 38321.2192365 -321.2192365
95 38318.0019788 -178.0019788
96 37826.0413091 -826.0413091
97 37539.5654913 -1579.565491
98 37512.1488602 -2012.14886
99 37554.3928529 -2054.392853
100 37634.4046536 -1454.404654
101 37657.2052192 -1237.205219
102 37733.1604776 -1013.160478
103 37653.9879615 -953.9879615
104 37677.2081694 -717.2081694
105 37678.1873348 -938.1873348
106 37492.5655524 -1012.565552
107 37412.8335132 -1012.833513
108 37149.0183802 -1849.01838
109 37358.2800128 -1858.280013
110 37515.7857603 -1615.78576
111 37644.8957114 -1344.895711
112 37759.3181816 -1119.318182
113 37788.4133819 -1408.413382
114 37754.2824739 -2074.282474
115 37900.0382367 -1240.038237
116 37877.5174327 -1577.517433
117 38049.151138 -1049.151138
118 37913.7465522 -913.7465522
119 38111.1183193 -631.1183193
120 38134.7581695 -734.7581695
121 38113.7760539 -113.7760539
122 38194.76702 225.23297997
123 38144.1301811 95.869818874
124 38113.4962924 -473.4962924
125 37977.1125412 -1477.112541
126 38130.9813887 -990.9813887
127 38099.5082154 -599.5082154
128 38303.5942594 -203.5942594
129 38276.0377477 -76.03774766
130 38195.0467816 -215.0467816
131 38319.9603096 -319.9603096
132 38574.8230733 225.17692667
133 38642.5253662 -42.52536623
134 38589.3706735 -89.37067346
135 38567.2695117 -367.2695117
136 38604.1980351 -304.1980351
137 38527.2636114 -327.2636114
138 38526.9838498 -46.98384984
139 38407.1060296 -547.1060296
140 38413.1209027 -373.1209027
141 38399.9721103 -19.97211027
142 38386.8233179 113.17668215
143 38313.3859134 -53.38591337
144 38328.4930366 71.506963425
145 38489.076161 350.92383895
146 38465.7160724 414.28392762
147 38551.6028654 268.39713456
148 38568.5284387 531.47156134
149 38460.9601262 839.03987381
150 38357.0287137 642.97128625
151 38362.0644215 697.93557852
152 38487.3975918 972.6024082
153 38529.3618229 950.63817706
154 38503.2041189 936.79588114
155 38401.5107987 898.48920125
156 38256.314559 543.68544098
157 38196.1658277 63.834172268
158 38216.1687779 43.831222094
159 38271.561563 208.438437
160 37846.4639016 -186.4639016
161 38041.0380533 -41.03805331
162 38175.0438314 264.95616861
163 38138.2551888 601.74481123
164 38126.505204 373.49479595
165 38063.9784997 36.021500341
166 37989.5619298 -289.5619298
167 38135.7373349 -635.7373349
168 38022.7136724 -802.7136724
169 38035.0231802 -1155.02318
170 37921.160233 -1341.160233
171 37953.6125718 -1173.612572
172 37928.1542716 -1008.154272
173 37966.901245 -1146.901245
174 38029.008307 -689.008307
175 38012.0827338 -732.0827338
176 37896.4013367 -856.4013367
177 37977.6720643 -497.6720643
178 38052.0886342 -152.0886342
179 38146.5081542 153.49184578
180 37804.6395513 -4.639551251
181 37972.2167142 287.78328575
182 38143.570658 356.42934196
183 38074.749319 -74.74931898
184 38168.1896736 331.81032636
185 38268.7639476 591.23605241
186 38381.0882063 898.91179374
187 38329.8918443 710.10815572
188 38336.6061213 563.39387874
189 38442.9155068 657.0844932
190 38456.9035838 743.09641615
191 38530.6207499 569.37925013
192 38470.8916609 609.10833911
193 38509.7785151 390.22148493
194 38506.0017343 493.99826573
195 38552.7219116 367.2780884
196 38532.998723 467.00127703
197 38518.0314805 761.96851947
198 38614.8289737 885.17102632
199 38594.2665004 525.73349958
200 38648.120597 711.87940295
201 38559.9957117 160.00428834
202 38556.7784539 643.22154606
203 38440.5375337 659.4624663
204 38439.138726 460.861274
205 38425.0107682 474.98923182
206 38483.2011687 436.79883131
207 38566.1504656 333.84953444
208 38597.4837581 482.51624186
209 38426.6893374 13.310662571
210 38553.8409578 346.15904224
211 38576.6415233 63.358476652
212 38534.1177691 -114.1177691
213 38625.0402699 314.95973008
214 38741.0014286 258.99857138
215 38996.5635962 303.43640377
216 39051.6766198 208.32338021
217 39159.5246938 140.4753062
218 39257.4412331 242.55876689
219 39561.2622665 438.73773348
220 39764.509026 435.49097402
221 39642.5329942 157.46700585
222 39481.2504658 378.74953417
223 39363.3309763 376.66902366
224 39458.1701387 -858.1701387
225 39466.8427465 -466.8427465
226 39569.3753512 -369.3753512
227 39598.0509092 -418.0509092
228 39572.8723705 -372.8723705
229 39636.3782403 -256.3782403
230 39568.6759474 -188.6759474
231 39504.1909122 -904.1909122
232 39551.0509703 -571.0509703
233 39536.7831317 -756.7831317
234 39582.2443821 -782.2443821
235 39742.6876258 -742.6876258
236 39670.5091482 -770.5091482
237 39654.9823827 -934.9823827
238 39657.6401174 -757.6401174
239 39608.1223246 -808.1223246
240 39657.3603558 -757.3603558
241 39745.4852412 -745.4852412
242 39740.729295 -560.729295
243 39857.9493806 -917.9493806
244 39662.8157059 -1042.815706
245 39465.304058 -685.304058
246 39449.4975309 -489.4975309
247 39443.2028963 -643.2028963
ra realizar la siguiente prueba de hipótesis, también llamada prueba de significancia de la r
eba de hipótesis el intercepto Prueba de hipótesis la pendiente

El intercepto no es significativo H0: B1 = 0 La pendiente es significativa

El intercepto es significativo H1: B1 ≠ 0 La pendiente no es significativa

Por lo tanto el Intercepto y la pendiente son

significativas en nuestro modelo de regresion
Significacion del Modelo. Prueba F
Valor crítico de H0: B0 = 0 El modelo no es significativo
F
1.572631358E-27 H1: B0 ≠ 0 El modelo es significativo
Modelo Significativo Se concluye que el modelo es
Prueba Rechazamos H significativo

Significancia Inferior 95%Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

Significativo 16334.8484 22402.4192 16334.84836 22402.4192
Significativo 11.7553096 16.2208445 11.75530961 16.2208445
gnificancia de la regresión:

significativa
o es significativa

que el modelo es
nificativo
 Fecha COLCAP ACCION SURA (Xi-Xprome)2 Error estimado Y Estimado
20170624 1,435.12 38,800 5925.964032469 98.82 39443.2
20170625 1,435.12 38,800 5925.964032469 98.82 39443.2
20170626 1,435.12 38,800 5925.964032469 98.82 39443.2

Fecha *COLCAP *ACCION SURA PRONOSTICO % Variación

Variación P
6/24/2017 1,435.12 38,800.00 39,443.20 -1.66%
6/25/2017 1,435.12 38,800.00 39,443.20 -1.66%
6/26/2017 1,435.12 38,800.00 39,443.20 -1.66%
39,443.20 39,44
Numero de observaciones (n) 247
Alphha (95% de confianza) 0.05
Promedio Xi (PIB) 1358.140 38,800.00
suma de cuadrados Xi 456015593 38,80
Valor de probabilidad 1.9697
Suma cuadrados de los residuos 130129074.3692
Varianza del error 531139.079058
1 2
Suma de Xi2 112,533,753,769
PRONOSTICO
 Lim inferior Lim superior
39248.6 39637.8 Pronostico Valor accion Grupo Sura
39248.6 39637.8 Intervalo de confianza del 95%
39248.6 39637.8
Valor Real Pronostico Lim

39,800
Variación Pronósticos
39,637.84 39,637.84
39,600
39,443.20 39,443.20
39,443.20 39,443.20 39,443.20
39,400
39,248.56 39,248.56
39,200
38,800.00

38,800.00 38,800.00 39,000

38,800.00 38,800.00
38,800
1 2 3
PRONOSTICO *ACCION SURA
38,600
6/24/2017 6/25/2017
 accion Grupo Sura
onfianza del 95%
Pronostico Lim inferior

,637.84 39,637.84

,443.20 39,443.20

,248.56 39,248.56

,800.00 38,800.00

25/2017 6/26/2017