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Result Update
respectively). Volume growth was largely impacted by a slowdown in the Particular Amount
Market Cap (| Crore) 68,950.1
real estate sector and decline in interior decoration activities. On the other
Total Debt (FY19) (| Crore) 111.1
hand, gross margins expanded notably by ~400 bps YoY in Q2FY20 largely
Cash & Inv (FY19) (| Crore) 190.4
on account of benign raw material prices (VAM prices declined ~8% QoQ EV (| Crore) 67,719.4
at US$ ~900/t) and price hikes. However, the company reported a slight 52 week H/L 1495/ 1049
contraction in EBITDA margin by 48 bps YoY to 20.4% (vs. I-direct estimate: Equity capital (| Crore) 50.8
21.8%) mainly due to higher advertisement & promotion and employee Face value (|) 1.0
costs. The management sees a demand recovery in C&B segments from
sse
Exhibit 3: Assumptions
Current Earlier Comments
FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E
Dealer network expansion coupled with revival in performance of
Consumer & Bazaar (%) 2.8 15.1 8.1 14.7 13.7 15.6
subsidiary to help drive segment revenue
Industrial Growth (%) 3.3 7.1 13.2 11.8 10.4 8.4
Others Growth (%) 13.8 18.3 12.2 3.4 15.0 12.0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 4: Growth trend in C&B business Exhibit 5: Growth trend in industrial business
8,000 1,600.0
CAGR ~11% CAGR ~ 12%
7,000 1,400.0
7,522
1,425.5
6,000 CAGR ~13% 1,200.0
6,560
1,280.5
CAGR ~ 8%
6,070
5,000 1,000.0
1,131.6
| in crores
| in crore
5,274
1,050.6
5,132
1,012.4
992.4
4,000 800.0
4,805
914.4
4,023
3,000 600.0
747.2
728.0
3,513
650.7
3,020
2,000 400.0
2,536
1,000 200.0
- -
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20E
FY21E
FY20E
FY21E
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
2,019.3
7,000.0
7,840.7
1,500.0 15.0
1,751.3
CAGR 12.5%
| crore
7,078.7
6,000.0
| in crores
%
1,368.3
1,341.2
1,000.0 10.0
6,078.4
5,000.0
1,259.8
1,173.5
5,701.6
5,616.8
4,000.0
483.7
600.5
671.5
776.6
4,820.4
500.0 5.0
4,260.6
3,000.0
3,657.9
3,109.7
2,000.0 - -
1,000.0
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY18
FY19
FY17
FY20E
FY21E
-
FY13
FY14
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY12
FY15
FY20E
FY21E
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
25.0
800.0 27.0
966.1
25.8
928.4
22.9 22.7
807.2
600.0 15.0
400.0 10.0
512.6
324.3
423.8
454.6
200.0 5.0
0.0
-
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY12
FY20E
FY21E
RoCE ROE
es
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
1,500 60.0
50.0
1,200
40.0
(|)
900
(%)
30.0
600
20.0
300 10.0
0 Mar-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Nov-190.0
Financial summary
Exhibit 14: Profit and loss statement | crore Exhibit 15: Cash flow statement | crore
(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E (Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Total Operating Income 6078.4 7078.7 7840.7 8947.4 Profit after Tax 966.1 928.4 1285.2 1509.8
Growth (%) 16.5 10.8 14.1 Depreciation 119.9 132.7 141.1 150.3
CF bef working cap chan 1102 1087 1457 1694
Raw Material Expenses 2887.7 3586.6 3706.9 4282.1 Net Inc in Current Assets -386.0 -209.9 -276.3 -355.2
Employee Expenses 712.4 836.6 929.2 1009.9 Net Inc in Current Liab. 168.4 111.1 123.7 192.8
Marketing Expenses 39.3 225.0 0.0 0.0 Net CF from Op activities 883.9 988.4 1304.6 1531.7
Other Expenses 1097.9 1062.3 1453.2 1636.1
Total Operating Expenditure 4737.2 5710.5 6089.3 6928.1
EBITDA 1,341.2 1,368.3 1,751.3 2,019.3 (Purchase)/Sale of FA -223.2 -245.0 -250.0 -280.0
Growth (%) 2.0 28.0 15.3 Increase/decrease in other investment -77.7 -265.3 -50.0 -50.0
Others 334.2 -59.4 -198.0 -308.0
Other Income 148.4 146.6 155.7 177.7
Net CF from Inv Activities 33.2 -569.7 -498.0 -638.0
Interest 15.5 26.1 30.8 34.0
Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
PBDT 1474.1 1488.9 1876.2 2163.0
Inc / (Dec) in Loan Funds 25.0 -11.5 -20.0 -10.0
Depreciation 119.9 132.7 141.1 150.3
Total Outflow of dividend -370.2 -401.1 -555.3 -555.3
Total Tax 392.7 413.3 431.6 507.2
Others -508 21 -31 -134
Profit from Associates 4.6 3.6 4.0 4.4
Net CF from Fin. Activities -853.4 -391.9 -606.1 -699.3
PAT 966.1 928.4 1,285.2 1509.8
Growth (%) -3.9 38.4 17.5
Net Cash flow 63.7 26.8 200.5 194.4
EPS (|) 18.8 18.1 25.1 29.5
Cash and Cash Equi beg. 99.9 163.6 190.4 390.8
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Cash 163.6 190.4 390.8 585.3
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 16: Balance sheet | crore Exhibit 17: Key ratios | crore
(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E (Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Equity Capital 50.8 50.8 50.8 50.8 Per Share Data
Reserve and Surplus 3523.3 4097.3 4827.2 5681.7 EPS 18.8 18.1 25.1 29.5
Total Shareholders funds 3574.1 4148.1 4877.9 5732.5 Cash EPS 21.2 20.7 27.8 32.4
Total Debt 122.6 111.1 91.1 81.1 BV 69.7 80.9 95.2 111.8
Deferred Tax Liability 110.7 120.1 120.1 120.1 DPS 7.2 7.8 10.8 10.8
Minority Interest 175.0 207.2 209.2 211.2 Operating Ratios
EBITDA Margin 22.1 19.3 22.3 22.6
Total Liabilities 4073.5 4672.4 5384.3 6230.8 PAT Margin 15.9 13.3 16.6 16.9
Return Ratios
Assets RoE 27.0 22.7 26.7 26.3
Total Gross Block 2333.1 2658.1 2908.1 3188.1 RoCE 33.6 29.6 32.8 32.8
Less acc depreciation 1168.3 1301.0 1442.2 1592.5 RoIC 44.7 36.9 43.2 44.9
Net Block 1164.8 1357.0 1465.9 1595.6 Valuation Ratios
Total Fixed Assets 1392.5 1504.8 1613.6 1743.3 EV / EBITDA 50.5 49.5 38.4 33.1
Other Investments 131.0 396.3 446.3 496.3 P/E 71.4 74.3 53.6 45.7
Goodwill on consolidation 177.4 184.99 184.99 184.99 EV / Net Sales 11.2 9.6 8.6 7.5
Market Cap / Sales 11.3 9.7 8.8 7.7
Inventory 804.3 934.5 1035.0 1181.1 Price to Book Value 19.3 16.6 14.1 12.0
Debtors 938.1 1056.0 1203.0 1372.8 Turnover Ratios
Loans and Advances 11.9 12.1 15.3 17.4 Asset turnover 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4
Other Current Assets 276.0 237.6 263.2 300.3 Debtor Days 56.3 54.5 56.0 56.0
Cash 163.6 190.4 390.8 585.3 Creditor Days 32.7 29.9 29.9 29.9
Total Current Assets 2193.8 2430.5 2907.3 3456.9 Solvency Ratios
Debt / Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Current Liabilities 1131.0 1242.1 1365.8 1558.6 Current Ratio 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6
Net Current Assets 1062.9 1188.4 1541.5 1898.3 Quick Ratio 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1
Total Assets 4073.5 4672.4 5384.2 6230.9 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its
stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,
Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined
as the analysts' valuation for a stock
Buy: >15%
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -15% to -5%;
Sell: <-15%
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