Climate Change and its Nature

Emily FitzGerald

EC291-HL & HI291-HL

Dr. Leacy and Dr. Rappaport

23 February 2019
 Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic climate change has exponentially shifted

global temperatures. The proliferation of fossil fuels for energy sources served as the impetus

for our present climate catastrophe. Greenhouse gas emissions of methane and carbon dioxide

are creating a blanket around the earth. If this continues, humans will not be able to adapt fast

enough and eventually succumb to the inhabitable temperatures. Albeit excessive carbon

emissions reign as the main cause of climate change, the scope of this civilization ending crisis

does not stem from one factor. The influences which catalyze rising temperatures are

multiclausal; thus they cannot be examined solely through one lens, but studied through models

and tables which recorded the changes from pre-industrial era to modern times. The drastic shift

of climate cannot be stopped, but it can be reduced through a global initiative working toward

reducing carbon dioxide emissions. However, to explore solutions, it is vital to first understand

the nature and causes of global warming.

To identify the causes of global warming, climate system models utilizing weather data

have to be formulated. Meteorologists can predict weather typically up to a month in advance,

whereas climate models must predict decades into the future. To formulate climate models,

climate scientists use weather records from the last 160 years, as well as 250 million sea

surface observations from ships, and buoys to create averages between specific latitudes and

longitudes (Houghton 67.) In addition to human-made weather records, ice cores tree rings,

records of glacial advancement and retreatment, and pollen distribution have been available to

show weather patterns building the whole climatic story up until now (Houghton 77.) Skeptics of

climate science derive their arguments from the unpredictability of these models. Despite the

chaotic nature of the models, computational power has been steadily growing and models have

been consistent in affirming the rise in global temperatures stems from the burning of fossil fuels

(Flannery 5.) Improvements In this technology have proved models are imperative for navigating

the future of our planet’s climate whether they are 100% accurate or not.

1
 Because Models of climate systems demonstrate the interactions between air, water,

ice, bio strata, soil and solid earth, the science behind global warming cannot be traced to one

discipline (Abatzoglou, 15.) Thus the issue has been examined by multiple science branches to

understand the carbon cycle and the source of carbon buildup. The Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change’s (IPCC) fifth assessment report concluded that the main cause of

anthropogenic climate change is greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide and methane.

Collectively, they have found carbon dioxides interaction with the biosphere, reservoirs in the

atmosphere, the earth’s surface, and underground, determines the rate of absorption and

reflection back into the atmosphere (Houghton 22.) Through the natural greenhouse effect, the

carbon cycle keeps us 20 degrees Celsius warmer than we would be otherwise (Houghton 29.)

However, when humans drill for oil, burn peat, forests and fossil fuels, among many other

carbon dioxide emitting acts, the overwhelming emissions cannot reach equilibrium in the

carbon cycle and remain in the atmosphere for up to a thousand years (Houghton 33.)

Currently, the increased emissions of carbon dioxide comprise 74% of the “Enhanced

Greenhouse Effect” (33.) This poses a major problem as greenhouse gases absorb thermal

radiation and become trapped in in Earth’s atmosphere raising the global temperatures.

Further evidence for human generated warming can be traced to periods of cooling or

heating in history. In the millennium before 1800, levels of carbon dioxide and methane varied

by no more than 3%. Now they are more than double that at 8% (Houghton 78.) The variability

of the past was a natural occurrence as proven by scientists James Croll and Milutin

Milankovitch. Using the base work of Croll, Milankovitch identified a correlation between earth's

orbit and the 60% of polar ice variations which fell in the 3 frequencies of Earth’s orbit

(Houghton 84.) When looking at Earth's elliptical orbit and the radiation dissemination from the

sun as earth tilts on its axis, the story of natural greenhouse variations becomes quite clear. The

sun sends thermal radiation to the earth and 84% becomes trapped in the atmosphere, while

the rest is sent back to space (Leacy.) The more the Earth’s atmospheric gases absorbs the

1
hotter it becomes. However, the natural greenhouse effect (which naturally keeps the Earth 15

degrees Celsius warmer) has been exacerbated by the postindustrial human driven carbon

output (Houghton 18-19.) This information demonstrates, climate scientists in both the

astronomical and geophysical disciplines support the notion that the change in Earth’s

atmosphere are not natural.

Carbon dioxide is not the only gas contributing to global warming, but it is the number one

contributor to the issue. Methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and aerosols are

other proponents trapping thermal radiation. The atmosphere is comprised of 19% Methane

(Houghton 49.) Methane can be released from cattle excrement, the burning of peat, decaying

rubbish, rice paddy fields, and oil pipe leaks (49). Although methane has a composition similar

to carbon dioxide, its life span is significantly less at only12 years in the atmosphere (ibid.)

nitrous oxide and CFCs make up 7% of atmospheric of gases with a less rapid increase than

methane or carbon (ibid.) Aerosols, solid and liquid particles of dust, fossil fuel, and biomass

never used to be an issue until 200 years ago. Humans have been releasing sulfate aerosols

into the atmosphere. This is not entirely awful, but when water vapor makes a compound with

Sulphate aerosols, sulfuric acid is produced, the cause of acid rain (Abatzoglou, 33-34.)

Despite the deleterious effects of these other gases, the quantity in comparison to Carbon

dioxide does not reach the same level of destruction.

Abundant Carbon Dioxide emissions does more than warm the planet, it also causes the

sea levels to rise. Sea levels rise because water expands as it warms (10, H.) Since 1970, 90%

of energy from the carbon cycle has accumulated in the ocean (74, H.) The ocean’s plankton

and other small organisms release carbon from the water's surface when they decompose and

sink to the bottom. This carbon gets trapped for a thousand years in the bottom of the ocean

(41, H.) To maintain equilibrium in the carbon cycle, more carbon is absorbed by the surface.

Consequently, the concentration of carbon on the surface in relation with the amount of small

organisms is disproportionate causing carbon to stay on the surface and absorb more heat. In

1
addition to the warmed surface temperature, PH levels are thrown off balance making waters

too acidic for wildlife. In 2007-2008 oyster larvae in the Pacific Coast of the U.S. began to perish

from the changes in acidity (38, Flannery.) In this scenario, scientist were able to identify the

problem and add kelp and other plants to bring the PH levels back to normal. Nevertheless, on

a global scale that method would not work and millions of marine life would die or experience a

population decline. Along with death of sea creatures, the increase in heat, warm water and cold

water currents of La Nina and El Niño are changed as the water cycle experiences changes

which causes more typhoons, tsunamis, and hurricanes (77, H.) The warming of the ocean

presents a host of problems from receding shore lines (migration) and increased precipitation

and storms.

Extreme weather and its effects will significantly affect U.S and global markets. If efforts

are made to invest in clean energies and policies like that of the carbon tax in Australia are

implemented the market could seek to benefit. Unfortunately, the present energy systems which

thrive off of the burning of fossil fuels are one of the oldest and most lucrative industries. In

Australia, President Abbott, abolished the carbon tax to favor a less regulated coal industry. He

completely wiped away the 9 months of coal reductions because of the cheap and easy to

contain nature of coal (Class.) Government environmental corruption can be found in other

places like Indonesia where state owned forests are sold to private companies to farm palm oil

(video.) The carbon output from deforestation around the globe has caused droughts like the

one in Syria which then leads to famine and war (video.) In the US the costs of drought in

Oklahoma and Texas cost 2011 racked up 10 billion dollars in agricultural loses (24, Flannery.)

Unexpectedly, the ramifications from not protecting the environment and regulating pollution

may benefit few financially, but on the whole have grave consequences for all of civilization.

Fortunately, there are solutions for clean energy that have long term upward trends for

global markets. Nuclear energy is a solution countries like Russia and the United States are

looking towards (class.) Nuclear energy emits no carbon in the atmosphere and provides

1
efficient energy. However the billion dollar long term investment with a 5 year long building

period, operating life of 30 years and sunk costs for decommissioning pose and issue for

investors (251, Dieter Helm.) Due to the delicate nature of operating and decommissioning

nuclear plants the business venture could not be entirely privatized. High safety standards,

dealing with radioactive waste and the initial investment leave too many risk factors for investors

(Class.) Although nuclear energy presents many problems, uranium is abundant and once

running returns investment.

Despite the promise of Nuclear and renewable energy, implementations will never happen

unless the market, technology and policy collaborates. As previously mentioned Australia began

to reduce their carbon footprint, but was thwarted by their government leader. An equivocal

situation happened in America in the latter half of the twentieth century. In the 1950’s Jules

Charney’s astonishing report on the severity of climate change predicted a global 3 degrees

Celsius increase, a temperature not seen since 3 million years ago when trees grew in

Antarctica (21, Loosing Earth.) Presidents began to take notice of Charney’s shocking discovery

and slowly enforced government regulations to limit pollution and diminish environmental

impacts. When Ronald Reagan came into office he elected James Watt a man with ties to the

coal industry for head of the interior department and Ann Gorsh head of EPA. (31, Loosing

Earth.) Regan and his cabinet were disastrous in their efforts to half environmental regulations

and trying to eliminate the position of science advisor. (32, Loosing Earth.) When George H. W.

Bush was elected in 1989 he lead a bipartisan effort to look towards a greener future.

Despite the bright outlook of policy change, in 1991 when the IPCC assembled the

environmental ministers swayed by financial interests could not come to a unanimous decision

as to how the globe should limit their carbon emissions (80, Loosing Earth.) Since then, the

issue has barely been dealt with by the United States. Presently, the largest contributors to the

enhanced greenhouse effect are China and the U.S. (Class.) Out of the 195 countries in

existence only 2% of all carbon emissions come from 180 of them (70, Flannery.) That means

1
that saving the planet will require world powers like the U.S. to lead in reducing carbon

emissions.

Even though U.S lawmakers have not drastically changed environmental regulations, the

citizens are aware of the threat. In fact a recent poll conducted by New York Times found 76%

percent of Americans acknowledge the existence of anthropogenic climate change (class.) This

can be attributed to the proliferation of knowledge on the internet and books, and climate

system technology which have greatly expanded, but so have materials written by ill-informed

skeptics (4, Flannery.)Regardless of the expanded accessibility to information, carbon

emissions have shown no significant reductions.at the rate humanity is going, global warming is

following the climate predictions of Charney. 18 of the 19 past years have been the warmest on

record (it’s official). If the world intends to avoid catastrophe the earth cannot increase by more

than 2 degrees Celsius (its official.) this can be achieved, but only if the United States and

China take the first and biggest steps. Climate change is real and can only be thwarted if policy

matches the urgent need for environmental reform.

1
 Works Cited
Flannery, Tim. Atmosphere of Hope. Penguin, 2016.
Houghton, John. Global Warming: the Complete Briefing. Cambridge University Press, 2017.

Doe, Jane. "Introduction to Black Holes." Physics 201. Best

College, New York. 30 Jan. 2013.