Mathematics

Internal Assessment Investigation

Predicting the percentage of Global Internet users in the year 2020 and analyzing
the viability of the model obtained by separately modeling growth of Internet users
in three countries- India, China and Guinea

1
Commented [U1]: The exploration is very logically
developed and fulfils aim. Overall structure of the
exploration is very good. Different parts of the
exploration are very well linked. He has presented
his own view point in a very excellent manner
discussing the problem at global level .He has
considered different perspectives, discussed
limitations, strengths and weakness of the models.
Thorough knowledge and understanding of
mathematics is demonstrated while choosing best
fit model for extrapolation. Mathematical
presentation is appropriate throughout. Overall a
very good piece of work.

1
NASA. Hand touching global network connection and data exchanges on the planet Earth as background. Digital image. iStock.
Getty Images, 20 Nov. 2017. Web. 07Dec. 2017. <https://www.istockphoto.com/in/photo/hand-of-touching-global-network-
connection-and-data-exchanges-on-the-planet-earth-gm876883156-244722225>.
INTRODUCTION:

Imagine you are sitting and reading an article and suddenly you come across a new term- scientific jargon
or phenomena that you have never heard about- what would be your first reaction? Well the answer seems
obvious- when confronted with something unique or curious our first instinct is to whip out our phones or
slam open our laptop screens and search on the internet; Google after all has all the answers. My purpose
of asking the aforementioned question was simple- I wished to demonstrate the importance and
prevalence of Internet in our daily lives

The Internet today can rightly be defined as a global network; it is not only a means of communication
but also an international association for broadcasting information. Access to Internet therefore is
imperative for development. However such is not the case. According to UN, in 2016, only 47% of the
world had access to Internet,2 and while these statistics have risen to 51.7% by June 2017,3 the crux of
matter lies in the fact that almost 50% of the world’s population still does not have access to internet. And
thus in order to fulfill this dearth the United Nations has set a goal to ensure that 60% of the world’s
population has access to Internet by 2020.4

As a citizen of a nation-India-that has used Internet as an engine for socio-economic development, I have
been exposed to the importance of Internet from a very young age; from online shopping to online
banking to online studying the Internet has facilitated growth and development through a number of ways.
And thus in order to achieve a large scale global collaborative culture and economy it is imperative that
the usage of internet spreads to almost all parts of the world. Through the course of my investigation I
will be devising and validating a number of models that can be used to extrapolate the percent of world
Internet users in the future and through the use of these models I would predicating the possibility of
UN’s goal of 60 % of the world population accessing the Internet by 2020. Commented [U2]: A

2
United Nations. "Nearly 47 per Cent of Global Population Now Online – UN Report." UN News Center. United Nations, 15
Sept. 2016. Web. 30 Oct. 2017. <http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=54931#.WmYhOTJh1PM>.
3 Internet World Stats. "Internet Growth Statistics 1995 to 2017 - the Global Village Online." Internet World Stats. Miniwatts

Marketing Group, 4 June 2017. Web. 30 Oct. 2017. <http://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm>.

4
United Nations. "Some 3.2 Billion People Now Online, but Number Still Falls Short of Internet Target – UN Report." UN News
Center. United Nations, 30 Nov. 2015. Web. 30 Oct. 2017.
<http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=52690#.WmYmHDJh1PM>.
1
PROCEDURE:

Since primary research into calculating the percentage Internet users globally is not possible, secondary
research was conducted and the data was retrieved online. The following table contains the data for the
percentage of world internet- starting from the year 1995 till June 2017.5 The year 1995 is represented by
the number “1” in the graph; 1996 by number “2” and so on.

Year Representation in the Graph Percentage of Internet Users worldwide

1995 1 0.400
1996 2 0.900
1997 3 1.70
1998 4 3.60
1999 5 4.10
2000 6 5.60
2001 7 8.00
2002 8 9.00
2003 9 10.5
2004 10 12.2
2005 11 14.9
2006 12 16.3
2007 13 18.5
2008 14 22.3
2009 15 25.2
2010 16 28.8
2011 17 31.2
2012 18 34.5
2013 19 39.0
2014 20 42.4
2015 21 45.7
2016 22 49.5
2017 23 50.7

Using the data collected in the table and the GeoGebra software, the points were plotted and the following
graph was obtained. The “X” axis represents the Years beginning with 1995 while the “Y” axis represents
the percentage of world Internet users

5
Internet World Stats. "Internet Growth Statistics 1995 to 2017 - the Global Village Online." Internet World Stats. Miniwatts
Marketing Group, 4 June 2017. Web. 30 Oct. 2017. <http://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm>.
2
There can be various models through which the aforementioned information could be modeled-
Exponential function, polynomial models with the power of 3 and 5 and a sin function were all evaluated
for extrapolating the percentage of world Internet users, however these models were rejected on the basis
of their low coefficient of determination- the R2.

The coefficient of determination- R2- is a statistical measure that analyzes the viability of a model in
explaining and predicting future outcome; the coefficient conveys the variability of a model. 6 A low
coefficient of determination is indicative of the fact that a model does not, to a large extent, account for
the variability in the data points and is thus not accurate enough to be used to predict the percentage of
world Internet users in the future. Therefore, for the purpose of this investigation I have chosen two
models and analyzed their feasibility in correctly predicting the world percentage of Internet users by
2020.

Firstly I have chosen a polynomial model with the degree of 4. Through GeoGebra software the
aforementioned points were plotted and the following graph was obtained.

6
Staff, Investopedia. "Coefficient of Determination." Investopedia. Investopedia, 20 May 2009. Web. 03 Nov. 2017.
<https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coefficient-of-determination.asp>.
3
The equation of the graph was technologicallycalculated to be: Commented [U3]: B
y = -0.000374x4 + 0.0168x3 – 0.163x2 + 1.72x –1.75

The coefficient of determination (R2)of the graph was calculated to be 0.999; this indicates that the curve
of best fit constructed by the software accounts for 99.9% of the total variation in “y”. However to further
confirm the viability of the graph, the nature of the graph needs to be determined

Therefore, first and foremost the first derivative of the equation was calculated.
𝑑𝑦
= -0.001496x3+ 0.0504x2– 0.326x + 1.72
𝑑𝑥
𝑑𝑦
To calculate the turning point of the graph =0
𝑑𝑥
Therefore:
-0.001496x3 + 0.0504x2 – 0.326x + 1.72 = 0

Solving the equation yields only one positive real root

x = 27.2 years

Next to determine the nature of this root, the second derivativeof the equation was calculated at x= 27.2
𝑑2𝑦
(x=27.2) =-0.00488(27.2)2 + 0.1008(27.2) – 0.326 = -1.201
𝑑𝑥 2

Since the second derivative of y is negative, this indicates that the root of this graph is a point of maxima
and from this point forward the graph- the percentage of world Internet users- would be in decline. This
can be proved through extrapolating the graph:

Through extrapolation the movement of the curve was traced and was predicted to reach 0% in nearly 36
years after 1995- 2031. Observing global trends it can be noted that due to the recent breakthrough in
mobile and Wi-Fi technology-namely the availability of smarter computing capabilities on mobile phones
for a cheaper price and the growth of Wi-Fi from low-generation connectivity to higher generation
connectivity- access to internet even in the more destitute parts of the world has now become possible.

4
Therefore in such a scenario a decline in the percentage of world Internet in merely 13 years from today
seems impossible. And on the heels of this conclusion the polynomial model is therefore rejected. Commented [U4]: D

Using the same data points as above and the GeoGebra software, now a regression model was generated
to predict the increasing percentage of world Internet users over the years.

The equation of the model was technologically obtained to be: Commented [U5]: B
67.3752
𝑦=
1+38.0852e-0.208x

The coefficient of determination (r2) for this graph was calculated to be 0.997. The horizontal asymptote
of the graph will now be calculated through the use of limits. As 𝑥(years since 1995) tend to infinity, the
limit will reveal the percentage at which world Internet users will stabilize.
67.3752
lim ( )
𝑥→∞ 1 + 38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥

38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥 → 0
Therefore:
y → 67.3752

Through the equation it can therefore be determined that as years pass, the percentage of world Internet
users would stabilize at 67%.This is a logical representation of the situation as, at any given point in time,
the global percentage of internet users would not reach a full 100% due a number of factors. First and
foremost there exists a certain group of individuals- newborn babies and the elderly- that are incapable or
interested in accessing the internet despite it far reaching availability; this gap would therefore always
persist in any mathematical extrapolation of future percentage of world internet users. Secondly the
division between the rural and the urban population- lack of infrastructural development in rural areas as
well as rural contempt of the modern technology-ensures that there is no equitable distribution of
resources that allow access to Internet in every part of a country and thus in every nation there exists a
sect of the population with no access to Internet- this prevents 100% Internet penetration.

5
Next, to analyze the situation mathematically the first and the second derivative of the technologically
generated equation will be calculated to determine the nature of this function and the year, according to
the function, that experienced fastest rate of growth in world Internet users.

𝑑𝑦 𝑑 67.3752
= ( )
𝑑𝑥 𝑑𝑥 1 + 38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥

(1+38.0852e−0.208x )(0)–(67.3752)(−7.9211e−0.208x )
= (1+38.0852e−0.208x )2

533.6827𝑒 −0.208𝑥
=(1+38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥 )2

533.6827
> 0
𝑒 0.208𝑥 [(1+38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥 )2 ]

Since the first derivative of the equation is greater than zero, this indicates the technologically generated
function will always be increasing, though at a slower rate after a certain point; world Internet users will
not decline in the future.

The second derivative will now be calculated to find the year with the fastest rate of growth of world
Internet users.

𝑑2𝑦 𝑑 533.6827𝑒 −0.208𝑥

2
= ( )
𝑑𝑥 𝑑𝑥 (1 + 38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥 )2

(1 + 38.0852e−0.208x )2 (−111.0060e−0.208x ) − (533.6827e−0.208x )(−15.8434e−0.208x )(1 + 38.0852e−0.208x )

=
(1 + 38.0852e−0.208x )4

[(1+38.0852e-0.208x )(-111.0060e-0.208x )]−[(533.6827e-0.208x )(-15.8434e-0.208x )]

= 3
(1+38.0852e-0.208x )

−111.0060e−0.208x −4227.6857e−0.416x +8455.3484e−0.416x

= 3
(1+38.0852e-0.208x )

−111.0060e−0.208x +4227.6857e−0.416x
= 3
(1+38.0852e-0.208x )

d2 y −111.0060e−0.208x (1−38.0852e−0.208x )
= 3
dx2 (1+38.0852e-0.208x )
Commented [U6]: E
For the point of inflexion of the graph second derivative is equal to zero
Therefore:

−111.0060𝑒 −0.208𝑥 (1 − 38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥 )

3
=0
(1+38.0852e-0.208x )

6
(−111.0060𝑒 −0.208𝑥 )(1 − 38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥 ) = 0
−111.0060𝑒 −0.208𝑥 = 0
−0.208𝑥 = ln 0 (Not possible, ergo REJECTED)

Therefore:
1 − 38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥 = 0
1
𝑒 −0.208𝑥 =
38.0852

−1 1
𝑥= (ln )
0.208 38.0852

𝑥 = 17. 4992
𝑥 = 18 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
In the year 2013, World Internet users grew at the fastest rate.
Consequently, it can thus be concluded that the graphical and the mathematical analysis of the logistic
model deems it to be the most appropriate to be used to extrapolate percentage of world Internet users in
the future.
However, for a more comprehensive analysis of the logistic model, I have also attempted to manually
calculate a logistic function using the available data. To calculate the manual equation of the logistic
model3 points from the scatter plot were chosen.
(1.00, 0.400),(10.0, 12.2),(23.0, 50.7)

The general equation of a regression model can noted down as:

𝑎
𝑦=
1 + 𝑏𝑒 −𝑐𝑥

Substituting (1.00, 0.400) in the equation:

𝑎
0.400 =
1+𝑏𝑒 −𝑐
0.400(1 + 𝑏𝑒 −𝑐 ) = 𝑎
1
Substituting (10.0, 12.2) in the equation:
𝑎
12.2 = 1+𝑏𝑒 −10𝑐

2 12.2(1 + 𝑏𝑒 −10𝑐 ) = 𝑎

Substituting (23.0, 50.7) in the equation:

𝑎
50.7 =
1+𝑏𝑒 −23𝑐
50.7(1 + 𝑏𝑒 −23𝑐
)=𝑎 3

First: 1 = 2
Therefore:
0.400(1 + 𝑏𝑒 −𝑐 ) = 12.2(1 + 𝑏𝑒 −10𝑐 )
0.4 + 0.4 𝑏𝑒 −𝑐 = 12.2 + 12.2 𝑏𝑒 −10𝑐
0.4 - 12.2 = 12.2 𝑏𝑒 −10𝑐 - 0.4 𝑏𝑒 −𝑐
-11.8 = 𝑏 (12.2𝑒 −10𝑐 - 0.4𝑒 −𝑐 )

7
 −11.8
= 𝑏 4
12.2𝑒 −10𝑐 − 0.4𝑒 −𝑐

First: 2 = 3
Therefore:
12.2 (1 + 𝑏𝑒 −10𝑐 ) = 50.7(1 + 𝑏𝑒 −23𝑐 )
12.2 + 12.2 𝑏𝑒 −10𝑐 = 50.7 + 50.7 𝑏𝑒 −23𝑐
12.2 -50.7 = 50.7 𝑏𝑒 −23𝑐 - 12.2𝑏𝑒 −10𝑐
-38.5 = 𝑏 (50.7𝑒 −23𝑐 -12.2𝑒 −10𝑐 )

−38.5
= 𝑏 5
50.7𝑒 −23𝑐 −12.2 𝑒 −10𝑐

To find the value of “𝑏,” equation 4 was equated with equation 5:

Therefore:
−11.8 −38.5
=
12.2 𝑒 −10𝑐 − 0.4 𝑒 −𝑐 50.7e−23c −12.2 e−10c
Commented [U7]: B
38.5(12.2𝑒 −10𝑐 − 0.4𝑒 −𝑐 ) = 11.8(50.7𝑒 −23𝑐 − 12.2𝑒 −10𝑐 )
469.7𝑒 −10𝑐 -15.4𝑒 −𝑐 = 598.26𝑒 −23𝑐 - 143.96𝑒 −10𝑐
469.7𝑒 −10𝑐 + 143.96𝑒 −10𝑐 = 598.26𝑒 −23𝑐 + 15.4𝑒 −𝑐
613.66𝑒 −10𝑐 = 598.26𝑒 −23𝑐 + 15.4𝑒 −𝑐

𝑐 = 0 (Rejected)
𝑐= 0.4089

Using 𝑐 = 0.4089

−38.5
𝑏=
50.7𝑒 −23(0.4089) − 12.2𝑒 −10(0.4089)
𝑏 = 192.2611
Therefore:
𝑎 = 0.400(1 + 192.2611𝑒 −0.4089)
𝑎 = 51.4938 Commented [U8]: E

Therefore the equation of the regression model was manually determined to be:
51.4938
𝑦=
1 + 192.2611𝑒 −0.4089𝑥

8
The horizontal asymptote of the graph will now be calculated through the use of limits.
51.4938
lim ( )
𝑥→∞ 1 + 192.3𝑒 −0.4089𝑥
−0.4089𝑥
192.3𝑒 →0

Therefore:
y →51.4938

In comparison to the technologically generated model, value of the horizontal asymptote yielded by the
manual logistic model appears to be far less. This is unrealistic for a limit as there exist certain countries
in the world that have just begun to experience an increasing growth in Internet penetration. For example
Ethiopia more than tripled its Internet users in 2017 as compared to 2016.7Furthermore to determine the
more accurate model, the average standard deviation for both the models was calculated8
Technologically generated model: 0.630
Manually generated model: 4.59 Commented [U9]: D

Comparing the two values, it becomes apparent that the variation in the manual model is greater than in
the technological model; there exists a certain degree of error in the manually calculated regression model
due to the fact that only 3 points were used to calculate the equation whereas the GeoGebra software
created an equation taking into account all the points. Therefore, on the basis of this conclusion, the
manually generated regression equation was rejected and the technologically generated model was then
accepted:

67.3752
𝑦=
1 + 38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥

Finally using this model, the percentage of Internet users in 2020 was calculated:
x= 25; Therefore
67.3752
𝑦=
1 + 38.0852𝑒 −0.208(25)
𝑦 = 55.6774 %

According to the model generated by the GeoGebra software it is apparent that the UN goal of 60% of
world Internet users by 2020 will not be achieved, however I did use this model to calculate the year in
which 60% of the world population will be using Internet
𝑦 = 60
Therefore;
67.3752
= 60
1 + 38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥

67.3752
= 1 + 38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥
60

7
Kemp, Simon. "Digital in 2017: Global Overview." We Are Social. We Are Social, 24 Jan. 2017. Web. 13 Nov. 2017.
<https://wearesocial.com/special-reports/digital-in-2017-global-overview>.
8
Check Table 1 and Table 2 in Appendix for calculations
9
1.123 = 1 + 38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥
0.123= 38.0852𝑒 −0.208𝑥
−1 0.123
𝑥= (ln )
0.208 38.0852

𝑥 = 28 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
Therefore in the year 2023, the percentage of world Internet users will reach 60%

In conclusion, through graphical and mathematical analysis, the logistic function has proven itself to be
the most apt model to extrapolate the increasing percentage Internet users worldwide; the model takes
into account the gap that exists in internet penetration of various developed, developing and
underdeveloped nations and has thus predicted the world internet penetration to be at 60%.However to
further prove the validity of the logistic function in predicting the future, data was collected from three
nations around the world- India, China and Guinea- and was modeled using the logistic function. Commented [U10]: C

When calculating the percentage of Internet users worldwide, it is extremely important to consider the
various kinds of nations that are a part of the global community; there are three kinds of nations in the
world- developed, developing and underdeveloped. For my first validation of the logistic model, I have
chosen India, an emerging superpower facing an increasing rate of internet penetration; As of 2015, India
had about 330 million internet users, which are currently projected to grow at a 20% CAGR over the next
5 years9 this thus makes the Asian nation an integral part of the global internet community. Data for
Internet users in India was collected10 and modeled using the GeoGebra software. While various models
were tested, they were once again rejected on either the basis of their low coefficient of determination or
on the nature of their derivatives. Thus the logistic model was finalized. The graph of the model can be
seen below, the “X” axis represents the Years beginning with 1995 while the “Y” axis represents the
percentage of world Internet users

9
NASSCOM. "The Future of Internet in India." NASSCOM. NASSCOM, 24 May 2017. Web. 15 Nov. 2017.
<http://www.nasscom.in/knowledge-center/publications/future-internet-india>.
10 Data Gathered from:

International Telecommunication Union. "Individuals Using the Internet (% of Population)." Individuals Using the Internet (% of
Population) | Data. The World Bank, 2016. Web. 15 Nov. 2017.
<https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.USER.ZS?locations=IN>.
10
The equation of the graph was technologically calculated to be:
88.5465
𝑦=
1 + 956.1807𝑒 −0.2822𝑥

With a R2 of 0.9966, this logistic function clearly accounts for “99%” of the data variation. The first
derivation the of function further proves the sustainability of this model:

𝑑𝑦 𝑑 88.5465
= ( )
𝑑𝑥 𝑑𝑥 1 + 956.1807𝑒 −0.2822𝑥

(1+956.1807𝑒 −0.2822𝑥 )(0)–(88.5465)(−269.8342𝑒 −0.2822𝑥 )

=
(1+956.1807𝑒 −0.2822𝑥 )2

23892.8734𝑒 −0.2822𝑥
=
(1+956.1807𝑒 −0.2822𝑥 )2

23892.8734
> 0
𝑒 0.2822𝑥 [(1+956.1807𝑒 −0.2822𝑥 )2 ]

Since the first derivative of the function is always greater than 0, this makes this model an increasing
function; Internet users will always continue to grow in India.
The use of limits yields the horizontal asymptote of the function.
88.5465
lim ( )
𝑥→∞ 1 + 956.1807𝑒 −0.2822𝑥

956.1807𝑒 −0.2822𝑥 → 0
Therefore:
y →88.5465

This is an apt prediction of the future given India vast population; the increasing surge of mobile users
and better exploration of the countries untapped resources for infrastructural development means that
there is a great scope of increasing internet users in the nation and thus a horizontal asymptote of
88.5465% is apropos.

Next I have chosen the China- a country that can be classified as a developed nation. China is ranked
number one in the world for it’s number of Internet users as percentage of population11and as such is a
major contributor to the global Internet users. Various models were once again used12to reflect the data13,
however with a R2 of 0.9977, the logistic model was deemed most valid to extrapolate China’s Internet
users. In the graph, once again, the “X” axis represents the Years beginning with 1995 while the “Y” axis
represents the percentage of world Internet users Commented [U11]: C

11
CIA. "Country comparison :: internet users." Central Intelligence Agency. Central Intelligence Agency, 2014. Web. 18 Nov.
2017. <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2153rank.html#in>.
12Check Appendix for calculations done on other functions to check their viability.
13 Data collected from:

International Telecommunication Union. "Individuals Using the Internet (% of Population)." Individuals Using the Internet (% of
Population) | Data. The World Bank, 2016. Web. 15 Nov. 2017.
<https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.USER.ZS?locations=CN>.
11
The equation for the logistic model was technologically calculated to be:

55.2348
𝑦=
1 + 415.4644𝑒 −0.4026𝑥

Using the first derivative the nature of the graph was calculated to be always increasing, though at a
slower rate after a certain point.

𝑑𝑦 𝑑 55.2348
= ( )
𝑑𝑥 𝑑𝑥 1 + 415.4644𝑒 −0.4026𝑥

(1+415.4644𝑒 −0.4026𝑥 )(0)–(55.2348)(−167.2659𝑒 −0.4026𝑥 )

=
(1+415.4644𝑒 −0.4026𝑥 )2

9238.9023𝑒 −0.4026𝑥
=
(1+415.4644𝑒 −0.4026𝑥 )2

9238.9023
> 0
𝑒 0.4026𝑥 [(1+415.4644𝑒 −0.4026𝑥 )2 ]

Through the application of limits the horizontal asymptote of the graph was calculated Commented [U12]: E

55.2348
lim ( )
𝑥→∞ 1 + 415.4644𝑒 −0.4026𝑥
−0.4026𝑥
415.4644𝑒 →0
Therefore:

y → 55.2348

A maximum Internet users percentage of 55% seems feasible

when analyzing China’s situation mathematically. China

12
 𝑑𝑦
achieved its point of inflexion (the point of maxima on the graph) at x=14.9.
𝑑𝑥

This implies that in the year 2010, China had its fastest rate of growth in Internet users and from that
point there was slow down in the growth rate on Internet users as demonstrated by the graph. In 2016
alone China had an Internet users percentage of 53.2% due to its rapid development the country has by
now employed most of its resources and equipped most of its citizens with the Internet services.
Therefore an asymptote of 55.2348 % appears to be fitting.

Lastly I have chosen Guinea, an underdeveloped nation, and tested the logistic model applicability in
modeling the percentage of Internet users in the country. In the graph, the “X” axis represents the Years
beginning with 1995 while the “Y” axis represents the percentage of world Internet users

The equation of the model was calculated to be:14

18.1942
𝑦=
1 + 11208.4633𝑒 −0.4326𝑥

𝑑𝑦 𝑑 18.1942
= ( )
𝑑𝑥 𝑑𝑥 1 + 11208.4633𝑒 −0.4326𝑥

(1+11208.4633𝑒 −0.4326𝑥 )(0)–(18.1942)(−4848.7812𝑒 −0.4326𝑥 )

=
(1+11208.4633𝑒 −0.4326𝑥 )2

88219.6953𝑒 −0.4326𝑥
=
(1+11208.4633𝑒 −0.4326𝑥 )2

88219.6953
> 0
𝑒 0.4326𝑥 [(1+11208.4633𝑒 −0.4326𝑥 )2 ]

14Data for equation was gathered from:

International Telecommunication Union. "Individuals Using the Internet (% of Population)." Individuals Using the Internet (% of
Population) | Data. The World Bank, 2016. Web. 15 Nov. 2017.
<https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.USER.ZS?locations=GN>.
13
The first derivative of the equation clearly proves that this logistic function to be an increasing function.
The use of limits yields the horizontal asymptote of 18.1942
18.1942
lim ( )
𝑥→∞ 1 + 11208.4633𝑒 −0.4326𝑥
−0.4326𝑥
11208.4633𝑒 →0
Therefore:
y → 18.1942

The astoundingly low predication made by the model therefore prompted me to conduct a further research
upon the history of the Guinea so as the check the validity of the prediction made by the model.
According to the World Bank, as of 2012,poverty affected about 55% of Guinea’s populace- a percentage
has most likely increased due to the Ebola crisis in 2014 and 2015 and the consequent economic
stagnation.15 The country as a whole also suffers from socio-economic stability issues and a moderate risk
of debt distress. Thus in light of such information, it is apparent that Guinea lacks the resources for
increasing internet penetration, in fact this is in most probability not a priority goal for the nation
especially in the face of such destituteness. Therefore in the current context the horizontal asymptote of
18.1942 seems practical.

CONCLUSION:

Thus in reconnaissance, the logistic model appears to be most appropriate for not only modeling the
percentage of Internet users worldwide but also for individually modeling Internet users in countries as
well. The model takes into account the Internet penetration in developed, developing and underdeveloped
nations and has thus placed the global asymptote at a moderate 67%

There, however, do exist certain limitation within this model. First and foremost amidst 195 countries in
the world, all with different socio, economic and political scenarios, this model has only been validated
on three countries and thus may not be applicable on all. Secondly this is not a dynamic model that takes
into account real time factors that may influence an increase or decrease in Internet usage such as natural Commented [U13]: D
calamities, the type of governance under which a country exists- dictatorial regimes are most likely to
suppress access to internet despite having the resource to provide it- economic factors that may lead to a
sudden reduction in the percentage of internet users, in a country and worldwide as well. For e.g.
Venezuela, a country’s economy is presently on the brink of a collapse and therefore its Internet users,
which were increasing in accordance to the logistic model, have suddenly experienced a sharp drop; this
situation may improve or worsen over time thereby effecting Internet usage but such fluctuations are
demonstrated neither in the graph nor in the function. However, notwithstanding these factors, this model
has been the most viable when extrapolating the percentage of world Internet users.

When analyzing the global Internet users, there are certain alternate models that may be explored as well.
In the recent years mobile technology has improved exponentially; high-speed mobile networks have
therefore transformed mobiles from simple devices into powerful portable computers allowing the users
to access the Internet with ease from anywhere in the world and therefore one can attempt to quantify this
impact of the rise of mobile phones on the percentage on internet users and investigate the correlation

15
World Bank. "Guinea Overview." World Bank. World Bank, 2017. Web. 18 Nov. 2017.
<http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/guinea/overview>.
14
between the percentage of world Internet users and Mobile subscriptions in the world and also in
individual countries.

Bibliography:

Digital Image:

 NASA. Hand touching global network connection and data exchanges on the planet Earth as
background. Digital image. iStock. Getty Images, 20 Nov. 2017. Web. 07 Dec. 2017.
<https://www.istockphoto.com/in/photo/hand-of-touching-global-network-connection-and-data-
exchanges-on-the-planet-earth-gm876883156-244722225>.

Websites:
 International Telecommunication Union. "Individuals Using the Internet (% of Population)."
Individuals Using the Internet (% of Population) | Data. The World Bank, 2016. Web. 15 Nov.
2017. <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.USER.ZS?locations=IN>.

 Internet World Stats. "Internet Growth Statistics 1995 to 2017 - the Global Village Online."
Internet World Stats. Miniwatts Marketing Group, 4 June 2017. Web. 30 Oct. 2017.
<http://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm>.

 Kemp, Simon. "Digital in 2017: Global Overview." We Are Social. We Are Social, 24 Jan. 2017.
Web. 13 Nov. 2017. <https://wearesocial.com/special-reports/digital-in-2017-global-overview>.

 NASSCOM. "The Future of Internet in India." NASSCOM. NASSCOM, 24 May 2017. Web. 15
Nov. 2017. <http://www.nasscom.in/knowledge-center/publications/future-internet-india>.

 Staff, Investopedia. "Coefficient of Determination." Investopedia. Investopedia, 20 May 2009.

Web. 03 Nov. 2017. <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coefficient-of-determination.asp>.

 United Nations. "Nearly 47 per Cent of Global Population Now Online – UN Report." UN News
Center. United Nations, 15 Sept. 2016. Web. 30 Oct. 2017.
<http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=54931#.WmYhOTJh1PM>.

 United Nations. "Some 3.2 Billion People Now Online, but Number Still Falls Short of Internet
Target – UN Report." UN News Center. United Nations, 30 Nov. 2015. Web. 30 Oct. 2017.
<http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=52690#.WmYmHDJh1PM>.

 World Bank. "Guinea Overview." World Bank. World Bank, 2017. Web. 18 Nov. 2017.
<http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/guinea/overview>.

15
APPENDIX:

Table 1: Technological Model

TECHNOLOGICAL MODEL
Years
Real % of World Absolute Differencebetween real values
Since Model Generated Value
Internet Users and model generated values
1995
1 0.4 2.1 1.7105
2 0.9 2.6 1.6805
3 1.7 3.2 1.4501
4 3.6 3.8 0.2379
5 4.1 4.7 0.5651
6 5.6 5.7 0.0547
7 8 6.8 1.1686
8 9 8.2 0.7798
9 10.5 9.8 0.6544
10 12.2 11.7 0.4714
11 14.9 13.9 1.0152
12 16.3 16.3 0.0211
13 18.5 19.0 0.5328
14 22.3 22.0 0.2991
15 25.2 25.2 0.0093
16 28.8 28.6 0.248
17 31.2 32.0 0.8212
18 34.5 35.5 1.0263
19 39 39.0 0.0081
20 42.4 42.3 0.0539
21 45.7 45.5 0.174
22 49.5 48.5 1.0178
23 50.7 51.2 0.4807

Sum = 14.4805
Absolute Value of Deviation
0.630
from all standard points =

16
Table 2: Manually Generated Model:

MANUALLY GENERATED MODEL

Years
Since Real % of World Absolute Differencebetween real values
1995 Internet Users Model Generated Value and model generated models
1 0.4 0.4 0.0
2 0.9 0.6 0.3
3 1.7 0.9 0.8
4 3.6 1.3 2.3
5 4.1 2.0 2.1
6 5.6 2.9 2.7
7 8 4.3 3.7
8 9 6.2 2.8
9 10.5 8.8 1.7
10 12.2 12.2 0.0
11 14.9 16.4 1.5
12 16.3 21.2 4.9
13 18.5 26.4 7.9
14 22.3 31.6 9.3
15 25.2 36.3 11.1
16 28.8 40.2 11.4
17 31.2 43.4 12.2
18 34.5 45.8 11.3
19 39 47.5 8.5
20 42.4 48.8 6.4
21 45.7 49.6 3.9
22 49.5 50.2 0.7
23 50.7 50.6 0.1

Sum= 105.7
Absolute Value of Deviation
from all standard points = 4.59

17
18