Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.2766306579
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.0765245209
R^2 ajustado 0.0677295163
Error típico 61.9972847387
Observaciones 107
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 1 33443.3588432375
Residuos 105 403584.64807265
Total 106 437028.006915888
300
-0.95714488 -0.18762677
200
100
0 Muestra percentil
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
ales
0 100 120
ormal
100 120
FECHA Y ESTACIONALIZADO DESESTACIONALIZADO VARIANZA
Jan-10 100 108 0.919
Feb-10 104 92 1.138 -4.6021093
Mar-10 203 154 1.320 -48.6206897
Apr-10 201 127 1.586 0.99502488
May-10 104 103 1.014 93.2692308
Jun-10 100 105 0.953 3.8961039
Jul-10 96 102 0.947 3.83817427
Aug-10 99 101 0.980 -2.9204431
Sep-10 95 91 1.051 4.30672269
Oct-10 67 49 1.365 41.2462908
Nov-10 33 80 0.415 103.012048
Dec-10 106 89 1.192 -68.6200378
Jan-11 199 108 1.841 -46.9141997
Feb-11 104 92 1.138 91.0834132
Mar-11 231 154 1.502 -54.8484848
Apr-11 201 127 1.586 14.9253731
May-11 201 103 1.960 0
Jun-11 100 105 0.953 100.799201
Jul-11 213 102 2.093 -53.0046948
Aug-11 204 101 2.018 4.2074364
Sep-11 104 91 1.150 96.1612284
Oct-11 67 49 1.365 54.5994065
Nov-11 202 80 2.517 -66.5674603
Dec-11 108 89 1.217 86.6666667
Jan-12 207 108 1.908 -47.6997579
Feb-12 102 92 1.116 101.857283
Mar-12 213 154 1.385 -51.971831
Apr-12 111 127 0.877 91.5467626
May-12 98 103 0.951 14.0512821
Jun-12 100 105 0.953 -2.5974026
Jul-12 203 102 1.998 -50.7866273
Aug-12 204 101 2.018 -0.48923679
Sep-12 101 91 1.117 101.976285
Oct-12 67 49 1.365 50.148368
Nov-12 202 80 2.527 -66.6996047
Dec-12 112 89 1.266 80.2315227
Jan-13 208 108 1.917 -45.8795181
Feb-13 201 92 2.194 3.13121272
Mar-13 231 154 1.502 -12.9004329
Apr-13 202 127 1.594 14.3564356
May-13 201 103 1.960 0.49751244
Jun-13 201 105 1.915 -0.09940358
Jul-13 204 102 2.004 -1.37254902
Aug-13 204 101 2.017 -0.14684288
Sep-13 203 91 2.242 0.59084195
Oct-13 22 49 0.448 819.004525
Nov-13 55 80 0.692 -60.1083032
Dec-13 36 89 0.402 55.1820728
Jan-14 208 108 1.917 -82.7951807
Feb-14 201 92 2.194 3.13121272
Mar-14 231 154 1.502 -12.9004329
Apr-14 202 127 1.594 14.3564356
May-14 201 103 1.960 0.49751244
Jun-14 201 105 1.915 -0.09940358
Jul-14 204 102 2.004 -1.37254902
Aug-14 204 101 2.017 -0.14684288
Sep-14 203 91 2.242 0.59084195
Oct-14 22 49 0.448 819.004525
Nov-14 55 80 0.692 -60.1083032
Dec-14 36 89 0.402 55.1820728
Jan-15 100 108 0.919 -64.120603
Feb-15 102 92 1.116 -2.7370479
Mar-15 203 154 1.320 -49.6059113
Apr-15 202 127 1.594 0.4950495
May-15 104 103 1.014 94.2307692
Jun-15 99 105 0.946 4.6277666
Jul-15 60 102 0.592 64.8424544
Aug-15 78 101 0.772 -22.8900256
Sep-15 88 91 0.975 -11.4382786
Oct-15 90 49 1.831 -2.32300885
Nov-15 301 80 3.761 -69.9867198
Dec-15 106 89 1.192 184.688091
Jan-16 100 108 0.919 6.33165829
Feb-16 104 92 1.138 -4.6021093
Mar-16 203 154 1.320 -48.6206897
Apr-16 201 127 1.586 0.99502488
May-16 104 103 1.014 93.2692308
Jun-16 100 105 0.953 3.8961039
Jul-16 66 102 0.652 50.753012
Aug-16 78 101 0.768 -14.6529563
Sep-16 88 91 0.975 -11.8912797
Oct-16 88 49 1.778 0.56947608
Nov-16 33 80 0.415 164.457831
Dec-16 106 89 1.192 -68.6200378
Jan-17 89 108 0.819 19.2784667
Feb-17 100 92 1.091 -11.3
Mar-17 203 154 1.320 -50.7389163
Apr-17 103 127 0.809 98.0487805
May-17 104 103 1.014 -1.44230769
Jun-17 100 105 0.953 3.8961039
Jul-17 96 102 0.947 3.83817427
Aug-17 78 101 0.766 24.2268041
Sep-17 95 91 1.051 -18.487395
Oct-17 67 49 1.365 41.2462908
Nov-17 33 80 0.415 103.012048
Dec-17 106 89 1.192 -68.6200378
Jan-18 100 108 0.922 6.01202405
Feb-18 67 92 0.735 48.0712166
Mar-18 67 154 0.435 0.74738416
Apr-18 55 127 0.437 20.7581227
May-18 104 103 1.014 -46.7307692
Jun-18 201 105 1.917 -48.3614697
Jul-18 96 102 0.947 108.921162
Aug-18 88 101 0.872 9.17327293
Sep-18 95 91 1.051 -7.24789916
Oct-18 44 49 0.897 114.89842
Nov-18 56 80 0.696 -20.4667864
Dec-18 221 89 2.494 -74.8305468
VARIANZA DESESTACIONALIZADA TENDENCIA T*E DATO/T*E*100 CICLOS T*E*C
160.98 17426.18 0.57
-19.1969136969 160.41 14707.69 0.71
-13.8006630294 159.84 24587.12 0.83
-16.7822727715 159.27 20186.71 1.00
56.4030081646 158.69 16277.37 0.64
6.4136901127 158.12 16611.67 0.60
0.5994693283 157.55 16035.30 0.60
-3.3650959071 156.98 15903.86 0.62
-6.7386553568 156.41 14167.90 0.67
-23.0038913509 155.83 7694.93 0.88
229.2512124124 155.26 12434.04 0.27
-65.2344924017 154.69 13724.75 0.77
-35.233663051 154.12 16682.67 1.19 0.68 11336.23
61.8498000021 153.54 14077.93 0.74 0.73 10297.92
-24.2490675107 152.97 23530.56 0.98 0.73 17274.67
-5.3039655675 152.40 19316.13 1.04 0.75 14431.92
-19.0750604521 151.83 15572.86 1.29 0.75 11693.39
105.664920314 151.25 15890.08 0.63 0.81 12794.67
-54.4704749143 150.68 15336.21 1.39 0.81 12383.67
3.730135818 150.11 15207.98 1.34 0.87 13278.39
75.3890780618 149.54 13545.71 0.77 0.93 12639.38
-15.724847466 148.96 7355.77 0.92 0.94 6923.25
-45.7780741464 148.39 11883.97 1.70 0.94 11225.19
106.8059030304 147.82 13115.33 0.82 1.06 13950.54
-36.1920685919 147.25 15939.15 1.30 1.07 17024.05
70.9753884419 146.67 13448.16 0.76 1.08 14476.58
-19.4228903202 146.10 22474.00 0.95 1.08 24229.78
57.8304105608 145.53 18445.55 0.60 1.08 19834.43
-7.7040689464 144.96 14868.34 0.66 1.04 15445.52
-0.2371655193 144.38 15168.49 0.66 0.99 14954.72
-52.3215887746 143.81 14637.13 1.39 0.99 14467.40
-0.945025233 143.24 14512.10 1.41 0.99 14344.72
80.588359032 142.67 12923.51 0.78 0.99 12843.87
-18.1511954276 142.10 7016.60 0.96 0.99 6981.43
-45.9923900588 141.52 11333.89 1.79 1.00 11318.93
99.6764793285 140.95 12505.91 0.90 1.01 12582.56
-33.9713191005 140.38 15195.64 1.37 1.01 15383.13
-12.6467029709 139.81 12818.40 1.57 1.02 13051.30
46.1273980522 139.23 21417.44 1.08 1.09 23250.33
-5.7727578172 138.66 17574.96 1.15 1.10 19270.58
-18.6724488126 138.09 14163.82 1.42 1.14 16175.38
2.3213644306 137.52 14446.90 1.39 1.21 17417.68
-4.4487318926 136.94 13938.05 1.46 1.27 17655.29
-0.6041995849 136.37 13816.22 1.48 1.27 17586.18
-10.0610494015 135.80 12301.32 1.65 1.28 15729.90
400.9672951115 135.23 6677.43 0.33 1.35 9021.52
-35.3024136383 134.65 10783.82 0.51 1.30 14003.64
71.9244752084 134.08 11896.48 0.30 1.19 14187.44
-79.0095822964 133.51 14452.12 1.44 1.14 16515.17
-12.6467029709 132.94 12188.63 1.65 1.15 13999.92
46.1273980522 132.36 20360.88 1.13 1.16 23524.21
-5.7727578172 131.79 16704.38 1.21 1.16 19377.54
-18.6724488126 131.22 13459.30 1.49 1.17 15680.34
2.3213644306 130.65 13725.31 1.47 1.17 16075.21
-4.4487318926 130.08 13238.96 1.54 1.18 15586.37
-0.6041995849 129.50 13120.33 1.56 1.18 15531.21
-10.0610494015 128.93 11679.13 1.74 1.19 13901.51
400.9672951115 128.36 6338.26 0.35 1.20 7590.80
-35.3024136383 127.79 10233.74 0.54 1.20 12271.20
71.9244752084 127.21 11287.06 0.32 1.20 13560.21
-56.2260133317 126.64 13708.61 0.73 1.20 16487.95
-17.6171857144 126.07 11558.87 0.89 1.14 13218.50
-15.4535745725 125.50 19304.32 1.05 1.08 20844.31
-17.1942417181 124.92 15833.80 1.28 1.07 16987.47
57.1811325833 124.35 12754.78 0.82 1.08 13754.79
7.1630822966 123.78 13003.72 0.76 1.02 13288.52
59.7010304817 123.21 12539.88 0.48 0.96 12081.45
-23.2432118439 122.63 12424.45 0.63 0.88 10872.71
-20.8163672566 122.06 11056.94 0.80 0.80 8821.18
-46.7543665715 121.49 5999.09 1.51 0.72 4315.91
-51.323534803 120.92 9683.67 3.11 0.82 7901.36
215.4027376085 120.34 10677.64 0.99 1.03 10998.33
29.7279492858 119.77 12965.09 0.77 1.09 14083.30
-19.1969136969 119.20 10929.10 0.95 1.09 11909.62
-13.8006630294 118.63 18247.76 1.11 1.10 19990.26
-16.7822727715 118.06 14963.22 1.34 1.10 16467.99
56.4030081646 117.48 12050.26 0.86 1.11 13329.92
6.4136901127 116.91 12282.13 0.82 1.11 13635.20
46.0510367959 116.34 11840.79 0.56 1.11 13195.19
-15.0438707566 115.77 11728.57 0.66 1.12 13148.22
-21.2213986261 115.19 10434.74 0.85 1.12 11727.30
-45.1776166066 114.62 5659.92 1.55 1.13 6383.47
328.9058820446 114.05 9133.59 0.36 1.13 10334.98
-65.2344924017 113.48 10068.22 1.05 0.90 9087.85
45.5234605856 112.90 12221.58 0.73 0.91 11092.61
-24.8701024467 112.33 10299.34 0.97 0.90 9312.16
-17.354422847 111.76 17191.20 1.18 0.91 15567.24
63.1879333945 111.19 14092.63 0.73 0.91 12841.67
-20.2422470802 110.61 11345.74 0.92 0.86 9756.24
6.4136901127 110.04 11560.54 0.87 0.86 9992.57
0.5994693283 109.47 11141.71 0.87 0.87 9677.78
23.6578089746 108.90 11032.69 0.70 0.89 9862.98
-27.1190297653 108.32 9812.55 0.97 0.90 8804.94
-23.0038913509 107.75 5320.75 1.27 0.91 4829.35
229.2512124124 107.18 8583.52 0.39 0.88 7587.27
-65.2344924017 106.61 9458.80 1.12 0.89 8379.32
29.3379855104 106.04 11478.07 0.87 0.89 10232.91
25.417985739 105.46 9669.57 0.70 0.90 8736.41
69.0244119167 104.89 16134.64 0.41 0.88 14209.29
-0.4979054019 104.32 13222.05 0.42 0.82 10800.03
-56.8919072024 103.75 10641.23 0.98 0.79 8418.54
-47.1101768606 103.17 10838.95 1.86 0.80 8629.78
102.4049263009 102.60 10442.63 0.92 0.88 9177.70
8.6732273661 102.03 10336.81 0.85 0.88 9134.59
-17.0697207252 101.46 9190.36 1.04 0.90 8237.02
17.1453210598 100.88 4981.58 0.89 0.90 4492.10
28.9894233009 100.31 8033.44 0.69 0.87 6991.39
-72.1150455132 0.00 0.90 0.00
IRREGULARIDAD
1.76
1.01
1.34
1.39
1.72
0.78
1.72
1.54
0.82
0.97
1.80
0.77
1.21
0.71
0.88
0.56
0.63
0.67
1.41
1.42
0.79
0.97
1.79
0.89
1.35
1.54
0.99
1.05
1.24
1.16
1.16
1.16
1.29
0.24
0.40
0.25
1.26
1.44
0.98
1.04
1.28
1.25
1.31
1.32
1.46
0.29
0.45
0.26
0.60
0.77
0.97
1.19
0.76
0.75
0.50
0.72
1.00
2.09
3.81
0.96
0.71
0.88
1.02
1.22
0.78
0.73
0.50
0.59
0.75
1.38
0.32
1.16
0.80
1.07
1.30
0.80
1.07
1.00
1.00
0.79
1.08
1.40
0.44
1.26
0.98
0.77
0.47
0.51
1.24
2.33
1.05
0.97
1.16
0.99
0.80
CICLOS
Jan-11 0.68
Feb-11 0.73
Mar-11 0.73
Apr-11 0.75
May-11 0.75
Jun-11 0.81
Jul-11 0.81
Aug-11 0.87
Sep-11 0.93
Oct-11 0.94
Nov-11 0.94
Dec-11 1.06
Jan-12 1.07
Feb-12 1.08
Mar-12 1.08
Apr-12 1.08
May-12 1.04
Jun-12 0.99
Jul-12 0.99
Aug-12 0.99
Sep-12 0.99
Oct-12 0.99
Nov-12 1.00
Dec-12 1.01
Jan-13 1.01
Feb-13 1.02
Mar-13 1.09
Apr-13 1.10
May-13 1.14
Jun-13 1.21
Jul-13 1.27
Aug-13 1.27
Sep-13 1.28
Oct-13 1.35
Nov-13 1.30
Dec-13 1.19
Jan-14 1.14
Feb-14 1.15
Mar-14 1.16
Apr-14 1.16
May-14 1.17
Jun-14 1.17
Jul-14 1.18
Aug-14 1.18
Sep-14 1.19
Oct-14 1.20
Nov-14 1.20
Dec-14 1.20
Jan-15 1.20
Feb-15 1.14
Mar-15 1.08
Apr-15 1.07
May-15 1.08
Jun-15 1.02
Jul-15 0.96
Aug-15 0.88
Sep-15 0.80
Oct-15 0.72
Nov-15 0.82
Dec-15 1.03
Jan-16 1.09
Feb-16 1.09
Mar-16 1.10
Apr-16 1.10
May-16 1.11
Jun-16 1.11
Jul-16 1.11
Aug-16 1.12
Sep-16 1.12
Oct-16 1.13
Nov-16 1.13
Dec-16 0.90
Jan-17 0.91
Feb-17 0.90
Mar-17 0.91
Apr-17 0.91
May-17 0.86
Jun-17 0.86
Jul-17 0.87 CIC
1.60
Aug-17 0.89
Sep-17 0.90 1.40
Oct-17 0.91
Nov-17 0.88 1.20
Dec-17 0.89
1.00
Jan-18 0.89
Feb-18 0.90 0.80
Mar-18 0.88
Apr-18 0.82 0.60
0.40
0.20
0.80
0.60
May-18 0.79
0.40
Jun-18 0.80
Jul-18 0.88 0.20
Aug-18 0.88
0.00
Sep-18 0.90
Oct-18 0.90 11 l -1
1 12 l -1
2 13 l -1
3 14
n- Ju n- Ju n- Ju n- Ju
l
Ja Ja Ja Ja
Nov-18 0.87
Dec-18 0.90
CICLO SECULAR
2 13 3 14 4 15 5 16 6 17 7 18 8
l -1 n- l -1 n- l -1 n- l -1 n- l -1 n- l -1 n- l -1
Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju Ja Ju
IRREGULARIDADES
Jan-11 1.76
Feb-11 1.01
Mar-11 1.34
Apr-11 1.39
May-11 1.72
Jun-11 0.78
Jul-11 1.72
Aug-11 1.54
Sep-11 0.82
Oct-11 0.97
Nov-11 1.80
Dec-11 0.77
Jan-12 1.21
Feb-12 0.71
Mar-12 0.88
Apr-12 0.56
May-12 0.63
Jun-12 0.67
Jul-12 1.41
Aug-12 1.42
Sep-12 0.79
Oct-12 0.97
Nov-12 1.79
Dec-12 0.89
Jan-13 1.35
Feb-13 1.54
Mar-13 0.99
Apr-13 1.05
May-13 1.24
Jun-13 1.16
Jul-13 1.16
Aug-13 1.16
Sep-13 1.29
Oct-13 0.24
Nov-13 0.40
Dec-13 0.25
Jan-14 1.26
Feb-14 1.44
Mar-14 0.98
Apr-14 1.04
May-14 1.28
Jun-14 1.25
Jul-14 1.31
Aug-14 1.32
Sep-14 1.46
Oct-14 0.29
Nov-14 0.45
Dec-14 0.26
Jan-15 0.60
Feb-15 0.77
Mar-15 0.97
Apr-15 1.19
May-15 0.76
Jun-15 0.75
Jul-15 0.50
Aug-15 0.72
Sep-15 1.00
Oct-15 2.09
Nov-15 3.81
Dec-15 0.96
Jan-16 0.71
Feb-16 0.88
Mar-16 1.02
Apr-16 1.22
May-16 0.78
Jun-16 0.73
Jul-16 0.50
Aug-16 0.59
Sep-16 0.75 TENDENCI
4.50
Oct-16 1.38
Nov-16 0.32 4.00
Dec-16 1.16
3.50
Jan-17 0.80
Feb-17 1.07 3.00
Mar-17 1.30
2.50
Apr-17 0.80
May-17 1.07 2.00
Jun-17 1.00 1.50
Jul-17 1.00
Aug-17 0.79 1.00
12 l -1
2
-1
3
l -1
3
-1
4
l -1
4
-1
5
l -1
5
-1
6
l -1
6
-1
7
l -1
7
-1
8
l -1
8
n- Ju n Ju n Ju n Ju n Ju n Ju n Ju
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja