1.

2 Reliability indices Some commonly used reliability indices are mentioned below Availability: As
reliability this is also probability whose scale is between [0,1]. Usually this is a function of time. Under
constant failure and repair rate assumption this function tends to a constant value in long run.
Availability shows fraction of time system is available for service under normal operation. Failure
frequency: This denotes number of transition from ‘up’ state to ‘down’ state of a system per unit time.
This is an important index and it should be as low as possible. Mean duration: These include mean up
time (MUT) and mean down time (MDT). These are derived from Failure Frequency (f). Mean Duration:
These include mean up time (MUT) and mean down time (MDT). These are derived from failure
frequency (f).

= =1 =
 For different system there may be many more indices defined. Once the reliability indices are obtained
the planner may us these values for modification of the system by selecting a threshold value of these
indices. 1.3 Reliability enhancement A simplest system whose reliability enhancement is required is non-
redundant or series systems. In such systems, system fails even if a single component fails. For reliability
enhancement of a system following general measures may be adopted. (a)Redundancy: Component
may be added to support one or more components. (1)High level Redundancy (HLR): A series system
may be duplicated itself known as HLR as follows Fig. 1.1 Reliability Engineering 7 Prof. L.D. Arya (2)Low
level Redundancy (LLR): In a low level redundancy, redundancy is added at component level as shown in
fig. below Fig. 1.2 Usually LLR gives higher reliability than HLR i.e. = But decision may not be simple
because of common cause failures. (b)Standby redundancy: In many situations active redundancy may
not applied because of the physical nature of the problem. In such situation standby redundancy may be
applied. Such system contains one or more component in idle mode and put to operation when main
component fails. Under ideal situation reliability of standby system is more than active parallel system.
This requires switch and switching perfects. (c) Preventive maintenance of the system will enhance the
reliability of the system. It should be understood that imperfect maintenance may deteriorate the
reliability of the system. (d) Further reliability indices may be improved by increasing repair rate. (e)
Design margins: Higher design margins e.g. overload capacity of a conductor may be selected which will
reduce failure rate and will give rise to increased reliability. For system reliability improvement
sensitivity studies may be of great interest. In many situations it is desired to modify the system with
limited resources to give maximum increase in reliability. This can be formulated as an optimization
problem. In a simplified way a monovariable approach may be followed. It is assumed that system
consists of ‘n’ components in complex situation (non series - parallel) in this approach the sensitivity of
overall reliability with respect to change in reliability of the each component is evaluated. Reliability of a
component with highest sensitivity is selected for improvements. Again sensitivities are evaluated and if
required another component may be selected for reliability enhancements. Usually complexity of a
system is owing to a desired performance of a system and hence reliability evaluation and need of
newer and newer indices are required. A simple configuration of a system may not give desired
performance but easier to evaluate reliability. Reliability Engineering 8 Prof. L.D. Arya Chapter – 2
Review of Important Formulas of Probability Theory 2.1 Introduction This chapter deals with some
important formulas of basic probability theory which are used in reliability engineering applications. 1.
Probability of sample space (S) is unity i.e. () = 1 2. Probability of any event of a sample space is given as
follows 0 ≤ (- ) ≤ 1 3. Frequency interpretation An experiment is performed N times independently and
let us assume number of times favorable outcome occurs is ni , which is for even - then if N is ‘large’
then (- ) is approximately written as (- ) ≃ ! " True value of (- ) will be obtained if N→ ∞ 4. Probability
addition theorem (a) If events -#, -%, . . . -' are mutually exclusive (non-compatible), then following
relation is written (-#+-% + ⋯ + -') = (-#) + (-% )+ . . . +(-') (b) If events -#, -%, . . . -' are not mutually
exclusive (compatible), then following relation is observed Reliability Engineering 9 Prof. L.D. Arya (-#+-%
+ ⋯ + -') = )(-) − )(- . -+) ,+ + … + (−1)'-# (-#-% … -') In all above expressions (- ) denotes probability of
occurrence of an event ‘- ’. Further when events -#, -%, . . . -' are non-compatible and form a sample
space ‘S’ then (∑- ) = () = 1 5. Probability multiplication theorem (a) If the events are independent then
(-#. -% … -') = (-#). (-% ) . . . (-') (b) If the events are not independent (dependent) then (-#. -% … -') = (-'⁄
) -#. -% … -'-# (-'-#⁄ ) -#. -% … -'-% … (-%⁄-#)(-#) Where (-%⁄-#) is the probability of occurrence of event -%
under the assumption that -# has occurred. 6. Total probability theorem It is an important theorem
usually applied in reliability engineering. Consider the following sample space which is partitioned 0# ,
0%, . . . 01. Fig. 2.1 Event ‘A’ is defined on the sample space as shown in Fig-2.1. Now the event ‘A’ can
be written as follows Reliability Engineering 10 Prof. L.D. Arya - = )-. 0 Applying probability operator ‘P’
(-) = )(-. 0) (-) = )(- 0⁄ )(0) Ex. 2.1: A factory shop transformer feeds four motors with input powers as 10,
20, 20, 50 kVA respectively. The operation of these motors is associated with the production process in
such a manner that when the first motor is running, the probability of switching on of the second motor
is 0.7, when the first and second motors are running, the probability of switching on of the third motor is
0.6; when the first three motors are running; the probability of switching on of the fourth motor is 0.3.
Assume the probability of switching on of the first motor is 0.8. Determine the probability of a load of
100 kVA on the factory shop of transformer. Solution: One is required to calculate the probability of all
four motors running simultaneous i.e. (-#. -%. -2. -3) = (-3⁄-#. -%. -2 ) (-2⁄-#. -%) (-%⁄-#)(-#) Given (-# ) =
0.8 (-%⁄-#) = 0.7 (-2⁄-#. -%) = 0.6 (-3⁄-#. -%. -2 ) = 0.3 Probability of load being 100 kVA = All the four
motors are on = 0.3 × 0.6 × 0.7 × 0.8 = 0.1008 Reliabil