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Introduction ......................................................................................................... 3
Proposed Exercises…………………………………………………………………...…4
Conclusions........................................................................................................ 12
Bibliography ......................................................................................................... 7
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Introduction
The following work was developed in order to understand the algorithms seen in
the first unit and with them solve the problems proposed by the tutor. In addition, having
information and sampling data to know the level of risk that can occur at the time of
making decisions in commercial activities.
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Proposed Exercises
Exercise 1
Teratex, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of 25
years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the contrary
the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of the
product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.
According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and
Decision Trees, respond:
a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.
a. No, because the EVPI is equal to zero, this indicates that the possible
variables have been taken into account and the impact of the decision
taken will not affect the profits.
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Probabilidad Demanda
Baja (0,35) 221 77,35
Manufacturar Nodo 2 Media (0,42) 251 105,42
Alta (0,23) 310 71,3
EVPI=VEcIP-VEsIP 0
Favorable
Estado de la Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades
naturaleza previas Condicionales Conjuntas Posteriores
Baja 0,35 0,3 0,11 0,27
Media 0,42 0,38 0,16 0,41
Alta 0,23 0,55 0,13 0,32
P(D) 0,39
Desfavorable
Estado de la Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades
naturaleza previas Condicionales Conjuntas Posteriores
Baja 0,35 0,7 0,25 0,40
Media 0,42 0,62 0,26 0,43
Alta 0,23 0,45 0,10 0,17
P(D) 0,61
Probabilidad Demanda
Baja (0,27) 0,27 221
Manufacturar Nodo 4 Media (0,41) 0,41 251 261,78
Alta (0,32) 0,32 310
E=(VEIM/VEIP)*100 #¡DIV/0! 0
Eficiencia es igual a 0
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Exercise 2
According to the corresponding information in Table 2 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and
Decision Trees, respond:
a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.
a. No, because the VEIP shows me that the negative impact on the income
will be minimal
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Probabilidad Demanda
Baja (0,19) 173 32,87
Fabricar Nodo 2 Media (0,21) 183 38,43
Alta Media (0,28) 195 54,6
Alta (0,32) 218 69,76
VEsIP
Nodo 2 195,66 Millones
Nodo 3 200,83 Millones
Nodo 4 202,9 Millones Valor mayor
Nodo 5 131,15 Millones
Nodo 6 198,36 Millones
Favorable
Estado de la Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades
naturaleza previas Condicionales Conjuntas Posteriores
Baja 0,19 0,2 0,04 0,11
Media 0,21 0,2 0,04 0,12
Alta Media 0,28 0,35 0,10 0,29
Alta 0,32 0,5 0,16 0,47
P(D) 0,34
Desfavorable
Estado de la Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades
naturaleza previas Condicionales Conjuntas Posteriores
Baja 0,19 0,8 0,15 0,23
Media 0,21 0,8 0,17 0,25
Alta Media 0,28 0,65 0,18 0,27
Alta 0,32 0,5 0,16 0,24
P(D) 0,66
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Probabilidad Demanda
Baja (0,11) 173 19,03 200
Fabricar Nodo 4 Media (0,12) 183 21,96
Alta Media (0,29) 195 56,55
Alta (0,47) 218 102,46
E=(VEIM/VEIP)*100 205,9267016
Eficiencia es igual a: 205%
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Exercise 3
Teratextyl, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of
30 years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the
contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of
the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.
Fabricar 85 87 91 95
Subcontratar 78 81 85 89
Comprar 82 85 87 90
Arrendamiento 83 85 87 91
Externalizar 85 87 89 93
Probabilidades Σ = 1 0,3 0,22 0,25 0,23
According to the corresponding information in Table 3 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and
Decision Trees, respond:
a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.
a. For this case, a better estimation of the demand should be taken into
account, because the negative impact on profits could be very large
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Probabilidad Demanda
Baja (0,3) 85 25,5
Fabricar Nodo 2 Media (0,22) 87 19,14
Alta Media (0,25) 91 22,75
Alta (0,23) 95 21,85
VEsIP
Nodo 2 89,24 Millones Valor mayor
Nodo 3 82,94 Millones
Nodo 4 85,75 Millones
Nodo 5 86,28 Millones
Nodo 6 88,28 Millones
Favorable
Estado de la Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades
naturaleza previas Condicionales Conjuntas Posteriores
Baja 0,3 0,22 0,07 0,20
Media 0,22 0,35 0,08 0,24
Alta Media 0,25 0,33 0,08 0,26
Alta 0,23 0,42 0,10 0,30
P(D) 0,32
Desfavorable
Estado de la Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades Probabilidades
naturaleza previas Condicionales Conjuntas Posteriores
Baja 0,3 0,78 0,23 0,35
Media 0,22 0,65 0,14 0,21
Alta Media 0,25 0,67 0,17 0,25
Alta 0,23 0,58 0,13 0,20
P(D) 0,68
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Probabilidad Demanda
Baja (0,20) 85 17 90,04
Fabricar Nodo 4 Media (0,24) 87 20,88
Alta Media (0,26) 91 23,66
Alta (0,30) 95 28,5
E=(VEIM/VEIP)*100 17,66189112
Eficiencia 17%
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Conclusions
The creation and correct management of a decision tree exposes variables such
as costs, risks, probabilities and benefits that lead us to make a better decision in front
of a certain problem.
It should be noted that, if after analyzing our decision tree, the EVPI is very high
with respect to those used, we must consider other variables to make a more reliable
decision.
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Lista de referencias
http://www.ingenieria.unam.mx/javica1/ingsistemas2/Decisiones/ValorInformaci
on.html
https://es.coursera.org/lecture/estadistica-aplicada-negocios/arboles-de-
decision-aplicacion-en-excel-parte-2-e8cBE
http://conferencia2.unad.edu.co/p7pjudusse2/?launcher=false&fcsContent=true
&pbMode=normal
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