Accepted Manuscript

Flood risk assessment and resilience strategies for flood risk management: A case
study of Surat City

Rupal.K. Waghwala, P.G. Agnihotri

PII: S2212-4209(18)31449-3
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101155
Article Number: 101155
Reference: IJDRR 101155

To appear in: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Received Date: 17 December 2018

Revised Date: 9 April 2019
Accepted Date: 15 April 2019

Please cite this article as: R.K. Waghwala, P.G. Agnihotri, Flood risk assessment and resilience
strategies for flood risk management: A case study of Surat City, International Journal of Disaster Risk
Reduction (2019), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101155.

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 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

1 Flood Risk Assessment and Resilience Strategies for Flood Risk

2 Management: A Case Study of Surat City
3 Rupal. K. Waghwala1 and Dr. P.G.Agnihotri2
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4 Rupal. K. Waghwala, Research Scholar
1
5 Department of Civil Engineering, S.V. National Institute of Technology, Surat, India
6 E-mail: r(underscore)waghwala@hotmail.com

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2
7 Dr. P. G. Agnihotri, Associate Professor
2
8 Department of Civil Engineering, S.V. National Institute of Technology, Surat, India
9 E-mail: pga@ced.svnit.ac.in

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10 ABSTRACT

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11 The process of urbanization has changed LULC patterns which have a strong influence on flood risk
12 and resulting economic losses from flood events. This study intends to assess the flood risk in urban
13 systems and governance in terms of the flood management plan for the Surat city, also called a part of
14 the Lower Tapi Basin, Gujarat, India. Topographical maps of the year 1968 and a satellite image of

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15 Resources-1 for the year 2006 are used to analyze the study area. Based on the study, a change from
16 low urbanization to a high urbanization pattern is the main driver for increasing the flood risk in the
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17 study area has been noted. These shows a lack of management of flood water in urban areas, which in
18 turn led to increasing flood losses in the urban sprawl. The flood management maps have been made
19 by using the spatial analysis tools of the Geographic Information System (GIS), which will be useful
20 to reduce and transfer flood risk. It will enhance the flood resilience of the flood-prone region.
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21 Keywords: Flood Risk, Flood Resilience, Flood Management, LULC Patterns.

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22 INTRODUCTION
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23 Flood disaster events have affected socio-economic lives and also the economic
24 development of the country (Brody et al. 2014; Thieken et al. 2015). A number of
25 researchers have pointed out that the city with rapid urban growth, increase flood and its
26 flood impacts to a greater extent (Hammond et al. 2015; Dewan et al. 2012). Moreover,
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27 the world is becoming progressively urbanized. In recent time the majority of the population
28 habitat in urban areas, which will rise up to 66% by 2050 (UN 2014 revision). The Indian
29 urban population is estimated to rise up to 590 million (40% of the population) by 2031
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30 (McKinsey Global Institute 2010). Because of this unplanned growth, there is pressure on
31 land, housing, infrastructures, and the environment. Thus, Infrastructure has failed to keep
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32 pace with this unplanned urbanized growth. The urban population explosion and also the
33 unchecked development of industrial and urban centers are the main attributes of the
34 changes in the Land–use pattern (Dewan and Yamaguchi 2009). Meanwhile, Land–use
35 pattern modifications are usually related to the economic explosion, like the vegetative
36 surface being removed, raw lands being replaced by impervious pavements, clearance, and
37 the filling of natural ponds and streams (Dewan and Yamaguchi 2008). These, in turn,
38 have increased the flood risk and resulted in damages and casualties (Liu et al. 2014).
39 Zhang et al. (2008) state that urbanization has been one of the major factors affecting the
40 recognized flood risk. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the integration of the process of
41 urbanization with flood risk. Hence, timely and accurate urban land use and land cover
42 (LULC) mapping is often required for flood risk assessment (Muis et al. 2015; Dewan and
43 Yamaguchi 2008). Thus, many approaches for remote sensing image classification have
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44 been developed for analyzing the spatial and temporal dynamics of LULC (Lu and Weng
45 2007), which will display the patterns of urban growth. Geographic Information Systems
46 (GIS) being an efficient and cost-effective tool (Kawamura et al. 2014; Montoya 2003)
47 has applicability to analyzing and visualizing of wide information about the spatial extent
48 and structure of the city (Dewan and Yamaguchi 2008).

49 To assess the effects of urbanization on annual runoff and flood events (Du et al.
50 2012) developed a distributed hydrologic model and a dynamic land use change model. Since
51 time, large numbers of studies have been done on urbanization and its effect on flood risk

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52 which includes a major research on the characteristics of the hydrological process (Hollis
53 1975; Swan 2010; Bronstert et al. 2007; Suriya and Mudgal 2012; Zope et al. 2016;
54 Chen et al. 2015). This process affected the runoff coefficient, peak flow, flood frequency,

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55 rainfall, and runoff yield, etc. Yet there were not enough to show the impact of urbanization
56 on flood risk. Not many studies were explicitly focusing on the implications of land cover
57 and flood depth, such as Dewan et al. (2007) who prepared a flood hazard map for the Dhaka

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58 city. Then, Dewan and Yamaguchi (2008) analyzed this risk of flooding by assessing the
59 river flow, rainfall and inundated areas with different urbanization scenarios in flood plain
60 areas. For assessing the spatiality of urban flooding vulnerability, some researchers have
61 analyzed flood risk by equating the flood extent and flood depth (Werner 2001; Salimi et al.

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62 2008). Liu et al. (2014) have found that too much of lands use changes have impacted the
63 flood exposure negatively and that the flood exposure and flood losses are positively
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64 correlated. Increasing global disaster losses demand efficient and effective risk-reducing
65 strategies (Brown et al. 2014), whose implementation depend on a proper understanding of
66 the flood risk drivers (Jha et al. 2012). Thus, in order to study the spatiotemporal effects of
67 urbanization and the propagation of the hydrological or hydraulic process, information on the
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68 flooding characteristics is also required for flood risk assessment. The LULC changes
69 associated with the expansion of urban land, have affected the flooding in several ways
70 (Konrad 2003). Hence, in the current paper, the effects of urbanization on the spreading of
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71 flood water and how these parameters affect the flood risk has been studied. This includes
72 spreading of flood water, and its effect on flood depth, urban exposures to flood and flood
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73 losses. In context to these parameters, disasters are considered to be the results

74 from the interaction of both hazard and vulnerability; there cannot be a disaster if there are
75 hazards and nullified vulnerability, or the presence of the vulnerable population without a
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76 hazard (Masood and Takeuchi 2011). Apel et al. (2009) presented an approach that
77 segregates the assessment of flood risk into the hazard and the determinants of vulnerability.
78 This equation is the most widely used to express risk and its potential impacts on the people
79 and their properties. In the present paper, this definition has been regarded for flood risk
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80 assessment. In the majority of usable hazard models, flood depth is considered as the
81 fundamental parameter (Jongman et al. 2012). The first aspect is the exposure factor
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82 determining the vulnerability of assets to floods. (Birkmann 2006; Fuchs et al. 2015). This
83 vulnerability also determines an estimated loss of assets exposed to the flood (Barroca et al.
84 2006; Messner and Meyer 2006). Moreover, vulnerability represents the impacts of the
85 exposition of assets to floodwater and their losses as a consequence of this exposition (Fuchs
86 et al. 2012). Masood and Takeuchi (2011) analyzed that flooding vulnerability is based on
87 aggregate data, such as the exposure of people or assets to flood, using vulnerability
88 indicators. In the past, various vulnerability models were developed depending on approaches
89 for the estimation of losses (Karagiorgos 2016). The importance of studies on the losses of
90 such flood events should be highlighted not only on an international level but at a national
91 and local level as well (Karagiorgos et al. 2016a). However, Surat city is an urbanized
92 coastal region of Lower Tapi Basin (LTB), Gujarat and river Tapi has a mountainous
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93 catchment area having high intensity of rainfall for a smaller time period (Bhat et al. 2013).
94 Thus, because of its location and economy, the occurrence of floods and its impending risks
95 have been much more than the other river delta of western India (Kale 1999). The Flood
96 phenomenon in the lower Tapi basin has occurred frequently as in the years 1883, 1884,
97 1894, 1942, 1944, 1945, 1949, 1959, 1968, 1994, 1998, 2006 (Agnihotri and Patel 2011).
98 Surat is the one among the fastest developing urban area in the world (City mayor’s report).
99 The cities as having been regarded as being thickly crowded, maintaining costly assets and
100 indulging in too much of economic activities have their LULC patterns subjected to
101 variations over a period of time, which resulted in changing the pattern of flood water

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102 movement. Surat has experienced the most devastating floods of the year 1968 and that of
103 2006 (Mavalankar 2008). Therefore, these two years in urbanization stages were selected for
104 the study purpose.

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105 The level of damages caused by floods had increased (Barredo 2009, Munich 1999)
106 yet; the urban communities are not to cope up with its consequences. The way to cope with a

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107 natural disaster and disaster recovery in the affected area is also a very important component
108 for flood management (Batica and Gourbesville 2016). Thus, this resilience can be defined
109 as an affected area capacity to adapt or cope with the effects of flood risk (Balica et. al
110 2012). Moreover, an understanding is needed to enable preparedness and prevent losses

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111 among the people (Cutter et al. 2008). With these indicators, additional information can be
112 provided for flood risk management.
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113 Sometimes the flood cannot be avoided due to heavy rainfall in the catchment of the
114 River (Das et al. 2007) and also the process of urbanization adding to this, decrease the
115 capacity of a catchment to mitigate from the floods (Tellman et al. 2016). In such a scenario,
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116 it is important to minimize the damage to the urban area and initiate a speedy recovery of city
117 life i.e., resiliency. The resilience of the city to floods can be enhanced if urban flood
118 management plans are developed (Vis et al. 2003; Jha et al. 2011) at the lower Tapi basin to
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119 reduce and manage the flood risk there. The major objective of flood management is to
120 decrease the flood risk (Nasiri, Yusof and Ali 2016). The severity of the floods can be
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121 mitigated in the study area by adopting suitable measures like; “Flood Protective
122 Embankment Scheme” and “Diversion of Floodwater” which will decrease the current and
123 future flood risk, consequently creating a more resilient city.
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124 To summarize this, the manmade constructions in the floodplains, be it the urbanized
125 area or river channel are both subjected to changes in space and time (Di Baldassarre et al.
126 2015). The hazardous phenomenon is the presence of floodwater and its behavior, which is
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127 also changing in a specific place and time. Hence, the objective of this study is to 1) quantify
128 the LULC change and detect the increment in the urban area 2) assess the spatiotemporal
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129 effects of urbanization on the flood risk, 3) to assess the existing resilience capacity of the
130 study area 4) and lastly flood mitigation strategies would also be suggested for the
131 management of flood water in the study area.

132 STUDY AREA

133 Tapi originating near the place of Multai (Betul district) of Madhya Pradesh in the
134 Satpura hill region of western India, lengthening 724 km and flowing through the states of
135 Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, meets the Arabian Sea approximately 19 km west
136 of the Surat city in Gujarat. The total area of the elongated catchment of the Tapi river basin
137 is 65,145 km2 which has been divided in Upper Tapi Basin (29,430 km2), Middle Tapi Basin
138 (29,430 km2) and Lower Tapi Basin (6,745 km2).
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139 Surat city, the area under our study is situated at the mouth of river Tapi and is located
140 between latitudes 21°03' N to 21°18' N and longitudes 72°42' E to 72°55' E has been shown
141 in Fig. 1. The average elevation of this city is 13 m and has a population of about 4,467,797
142 (Census 2011) and is considered as one of the fastest developing Indian cities. The city span
143 covers the total area of 326.515 km2. Several major and minor creeks pass through this city
144 (Joshi and Patel 2010). To avoid recurrent floods in Surat, the Ukai dam was built on the
145 river Tapi in 1972 at 110 km upstream as a large multipurpose project. The Lower Tapi basin
146 receives an average annual rainfall of about 1376 mm which often results in a heavy
147 discharge from the Ukai dam, causing frequent flood occurrence in Surat. Irrigation

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148 Department has kept a check on the level of discharged water from the Ukai dam at Nehru
149 Bridge / Hope Bridge, which has been designed for the high flood level (HFL) with respect to
150 GTS benchmark as 12.45 m. Hope Bridge near the Chowk Bazaar (central zone) connects it

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151 to Rander (west zone) in Surat. The city has experienced several flood events since pre-
152 modern times. The most flood events were dangerous and damaging that of the years 1968
153 and of 2006 which impacted the city to a huge extent. Historically, the city has also been an

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154 important commercial center of the country and has had well-established trade links with
155 many countries. Therefore, protecting the city from flooding is not a recent approach. Rather,
156 various approaches were made like; the construction of a protective wall around the city
157 began in the 17th century. However, for the same were not enough to decrease the sufferings

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158 of the city from these recurrent floods.
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159
160 Fig. 1 Location map of the study area.

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162 DATA COLLECTION

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163 The present study uses two types of spatial data to evaluate the performance of each
164 Land use land cover (LULC) classes which are needed to analyze the urban expansion. 1)
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165 Topographical sheets no. 46C/15, 16 (scale: 1: 50,000) for the year 1968, were collected from
166 the Survey of India, Dehradun, 2) Indian Remote Sensing satellite image Resourcesat-1
167 (merged sensor data of LISS-III and LISS –IV multi-scanner) of the year 2006 (December
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168 month) with a spatial resolution of 30 m was obtained from NRSC (National Remote Sensing
169 Centre), Hyderabad. Inundated urban maps for the study area were prepared from the Flood
170 submergence maps (1968, 2006). The data related to these flood events were gathered from
171 the Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) and Surat irrigation circle (SIC). Data related to the
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172 flood depth for the year 1968 and 2006 were collected from Surat Mahanagar Palika -
173 Vahivati Ahewal 68 to 69, CWPRS (Central Water & Power Research Station, Pune)
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174 technical report - 2009, the Surat Municipal corporation - Flood 2006 report, and public
175 interviews for the evaluation of the same. The flood water level and water discharge data for
176 the year 1968 and 2006 at Nehru Bridge were obtained from the Central Water Commission
177 (CWC), Tapi Division, Surat (Gujarat). The embankment wall details were extracted from the
178 index map of the flood protective works which were collected from SIC, so as to make a
179 shapefile by using software Arc-Gis 10.5. The existing water bodies and creeks, as well as a
180 proposed detention basin, were digitized in a different layer from the raster image (a map of
181 the drainage network of Surat drainage division, Surat) which was prepared by Bisag
182 (Department of science and technology, the government of Gujarat, Gandhinagar) was
183 collected from SIC. The layer of existing and proposed features was separated in the form of
184 Shapefiles (*.shp). CartoSat-1 DEM with 30m resolution was obtained from the BHUVAN
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185 portal (http://bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in) and has been used as a raster image showing the topography
186 of the area. information regarding various creeks on both side of the river was collected from
187 the drainage department, West zone, SMC.

188 METHODOLOGY
189 The temporal flood risk arises from the vulnerability and hazard indicators of the
190 urban system which has been computed for the study area. Spatial analysis of selected flood
191 events was conducted and the impact of LULC change on the Flood Risk in the present

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192 analysis was also examined. A detailed methodology of the conceptual framework for
193 mitigation measures is proposed in the current study and also discussed in the next sub-
194 sections. The detailed methodology has been mention in the Fig. 2.

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195

196 Fig. 2 Flowchart of the methodology adopted for analysis.

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197
198 Identification of Flood Events

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199 A recent estimation has suggested that 90 percent of Surat’s geographical area has
200 faced climate-induced events like flooding, coastal and cyclonic storms or inundations
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201 associated in relation to high tides and sea level rise (Bhat et al. 2013). The study area has
202 experienced several floods since the year 1883. The flood history of the study area is
203 mentioned in the Table 1 and Fig. 3 indicating moderate to severe flood events in the Surat
204 city region. The historical flood events of the year 1968 and of 2006 were categorized as
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205 severe flood events (Mavalankar 2008) of the study area. The Surat city had witnessed two
206 high floods which brought untold damages to the industry, commerce and the habitual life of
207 the city. The floods of August 1968 and 2006 were the most devastating because of the
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208 highest spring tides coinciding with heavy rains in the catchment area between Ukai,
209 Kakrapar, and Surat.
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210

211 Fig. 3 Flood history of Surat city.

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212
213 Land use Land cover (LULC) Map
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214 One of the major spatial indicators to quantify the severity of the flood is the LULC
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215 map (Asmat et al. 2016). The temporal and the spatial expansion of urbanization have been
216 analyzed for the periods that are the year 1968 and 2006 in the present study. The city area
217 had expanded with time from 21.95 km2 (1968) to 326.515 km2 (major expansion being in
218 2006) (https://www.suratmunicipal.gov.in/TheCity/City/Stml1). In accordance with the
219 temporal analysis of the study area, the spatial analysis for the selected flood years was
220 conducted. For preparing the LULC map in the present study, two types of spatial data have
221 been used. These are - a toposheet and the satellite image. A digital mode has been created for
222 the topographic sheet of the year 1968, which has been georeferenced with the longitudes and
223 latitudes with the help of spatial analyst tools in ArcGIS 10.5 software. A mosaic of these
224 toposheets has been made and the Surat city has been demarcated with a boundary. The
225 LULC map of the study area for the year 1968 had been prepared under the supervised
226 classification from the aforementioned toposheet.
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227 A Resourcesat-1 satellite multispectral image (LISS-III and LISS-IV MX) was used to
228 estimate the spatial distribution pattern of LULC for the year 2006. The same is
229 georeferenced using software ArcGIS 10.5. In the georeferencing process, the transformation
230 is done using Second Order Polynomial. The post-classification approach was used to detect
231 and assess land cover changes in this study. A supervised classification with the maximum
232 likelihood algorithm was employed to classify the georeferenced digital data of Resourcesat-
233 1 satellite imagery for LULC mapping for the year 2006. The supervised classification
234 method which represents the mapping of particular land classes that make use of a particular
235 portion of such polygons of training samples on the GeoTIFF image. Before the pre-

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236 processing, the Global Positioning System (GPS) equipment was utilized to perform an
237 extensive field survey throughout the study area before the commencement of the pre-
238 processing and classification of satellite imagery. These maps were interpreted and the

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239 urbanized changes were identified. The kappa coefficient was used to achieve better
240 classification accuracy in the supervised classification and also to check the precision of the
241 LULC map; of value 0.84. The various categories of LULC observed in the study area can be

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242 classified into four major groups: urban area, vegetation area, open area, and water bodies as
243 shown in the Fig. 4. The total study area for both the years has been taken 310.04 km2 for
244 calculation. Various categories of the LULC were expressed in the form of a percentage of
245 the total area of those LULC classes. The Percentage of LULC categories for the year 1968,

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246 and 2006 have been shown in the Table 2.
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247

248 Fig. 4 (a) LULC map of year 1968 and (b) LULC map of year 2006.
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249
250 Flood Risk Indicators IFR
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251 A commonly used method to define the flood risk is undertaking risk as the product of
252 “hazard”, and the “vulnerability” (Apel et al. 2009). The temporal flood risk indicators IFR
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253 were then computed for the Surat region in terms of the two different indicators, multiplying
254 IV and IH (accounting for Vulnerability and Hazard).
I = I x I (1)
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255 Hazard Indicator IH was assigned as the average depth of inundation. Therefore, for the
256 calculation of the Vulnerability Indicator IV, the percentage of different categories of Land
257 use exposed to the flood has been considered. A combination of the results of these two
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258 analyses is made for the flood risk assessment.

259 Vulnerability indicator IV
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260 There are several definitions, concepts, and methods to organize vulnerability. The
261 vulnerability is generally viewed through these two perspectives 1) the exposed elements to
262 flood event such as people or assets 2) the amount of damages or losses caused by flooding
263 (Fuchs et al. 2015). The vulnerability analysis, therefore, consists of identifying the land use
264 areas exposed to flood events and potential for damage. Flood exposures were evaluated by
265 intersecting the LULC map of the floodplains with the flood area polygon for each of the
266 flood events. The spatial extent of flood events was prepared from the flood submergence
267 Map -1968 and flood level -2006 map of the Surat city both of which were collected from the
268 SIC (Surat irrigation circle) and SMC (Surat Municipal Corporation) respectively. These
269 maps were georeferenced and digitized using ArcGIS 10.5. Flood-Inundation map for the
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270 year 1968 and 2006 are shown in the Fig. 5. The flood inundation area for the year 1968
271 (Asub)1968 = 170.05 km2 and for the year 2006 (Asub)2006 = 110.00 km2 out of the total area of
272 Surat city (A)total =310.04 km2. The exposed area for different classes of LULC has been
273 extracted by overlapping the flood inundation extent map on the LULC classification map,
274 thereby giving an indication of the various categories of land use areas which had been
275 inundated during the flood event. The urban asset area, open area and the agricultural area
276 which were exposed during the flood events of 1968 and 2006 are shown in the Fig. 6. From
277 the map, Urban exposed area (EU) (based on the mobility of people during a flood event) is
278 35.45 km2 and 45.00 km2 for the flood event of 1968 and 2006 respectively. The agriculture

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279 exposed area (EA) is 48.00 km2 and 42.00 km2 for the flood event of 1968 and 2006
280 respectively. And the exposed open space area (EO) had decreased from 86.55 km2 (1968) to
281 23.00 km2 (2006) in this study area.

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282

283 Fig. 5 Flood Submergence map of the year 1968 and 2006.

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284

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285 The Vulnerability indicator (IV) was estimated based on a weighted score for land
286 covers destruction during the flood event. There are four different categories of land use data
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287 available to us. These are open space, vegetation area, urban area, and water body.
288 Agriculture and house damage both have the major income and stock were considered to
289 identify the flood vulnerability indicator (Masood and Takeuchi 2011). Each of these has
290 been assigned a weighted score, which can be expressed in terms of monetary damage. The
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291 intensity of the damage caused by the past flood event has been valued among the different
292 land use categories and have been shown in the Table 3. In this study area, the agricultural
293 area exhibited higher tolerance to flooding with less economic damage as compared to the
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294 urban area, thereby giving the former an exposure factor of 0.50. The urban area was
295 damaged 20 times more than agricultural land. This meant that the urban dwellers were
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296 impacted more by the floods and that it had its destructive consequences on their
297 employment, housing and critical infrastructures, such as roads, power and water supplies.
298 Therefore, the urban exposed areas (EU) and agricultural exposed areas (EA) were
299 respectively assigned 10 and 0.5 weighted factors as exposure factors for analysis. Without
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300 exposure there is no risk, Hence, if population and economic resources are not subjected to
301 flooding, there will be a zero flood risk (Kron 2002). Weighted factor 0 represented open
302 spaces in exposed areas (EO). Vulnerability Indicator IV was estimated by
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I = (10 EU + 0.5 EA + 0 EO)/ Asub . (2)

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303 Where, EU, EA, and EO represent the urban area, the agriculture area, and the open space area
304 respectively exposed during the flood events. Asub represents the total submergence area
305 during flood events. In equation (2) the coefficients of 10, 0.50, and 0.0 are the weight factors
306 for the classes EU, EA, and EO respectively, which represent the flood damages.

307 Fig. 6 (a) Urban submergence area of year 1968 and (b) Urban submergence area of year
308 2006.
309 Hazard indicator IH

310 The flood hazard is primarily correlated to the flood levels (Bertilsson et al. 2018). It
311 is important because the higher the water level during the flood; more are the resulting
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312 damages (Dewan 2013). For hazard assessment, inundation depth is regarded as the most
313 significant factor for flood losses (Dewan 2013; Islam and Sado 2000). Through the
314 inundation status, an average flood depth in terms of Hazard Indicator (IH) was prepared.
315 During this study, inundation water depth of 50 points at different locations of the specific
316 site has been investigated and a comparison has been made with the flood depths of the years
317 1968 and 2006 of the same places. A comparison analysis of the flood level of the
318 aforementioned years has been shown in Fig. 7. The average flood depths are 1.49 m and
319 2.12 m for the year 1968 and of 2006 respectively.

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320

321 Fig. 7 Flood inundation depth for the year 1968 and 2006.

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322

323 Taking into consideration the water level in the urban system, three classes of hazards

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324 were established depending on the problems faced by the people in conducting their routine
325 activities and the amount of the property loss incurred (Tingsanchali and Karim 2005).
326 Thus in this way, a water level 0 to 0.5 m will not affect the human activities much, thereby

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327 coming to the category of low hazard. Second, from 0.5 to 1.5 m, there are possibilities of the
328 hindrance to city mobility and traffic interruption. This depth frame has been considered as a
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329 medium hazard. And third, from 1.5 to 3.0 m depth, the loss of lives and damages to
330 agricultural production, roads, and the buildings would be worse. This depth frame can,
331 therefore, be considered as a high hazard. As recommended by Tingsanchali and Karim
332 (2005), a low hazard will be indicated by a smaller hazard index while a great hazard will be
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333 indicated by a larger hazard index. The linear scale of 1, 2 and 3 for low, medium, and high
334 hazards were assigned for the ranking of Hazard Indicator (IH), which consequently was 2.00
335 and 3.00 respectively for the year 1968 and 2006.
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336 Flood Risk Indicator (IFR) Analysis

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337 The Flood Risk Indicator (IFR) was obtained as a by-product of the land use Vulnerability
338 Indicator (IV) and the flood depth Hazard Indicator (IH). The Flood Risk Indicator are 4.46
339 and 12.84 for the urbanization stage of 1968 and 2006 respectively. The Flood risk indicator
340 analysis in Table 4 concludes that both sides of the Tapi River in Surat and the surrounding
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341 region are more vulnerable to flood risk due to increased urbanization. Urbanization is a
342 continuous growing process and cannot be stopped. In the current scenario, it is the
343 fundamental factor for the expansion of the society; therefore with respect to urban growth, it
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344 is obligatory to develop coherent flood management measurements that would interrelate the
345 implementation of other measures. This includes reducing the vulnerability of the society as
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346 well as lowering the flood risk in flood-prone areas.

347 Reducing Flood Risk Losses and Enhancing Urban Resilience: Urban Flood Risk
348 Management Approaches

349 It is desirable to evaluate flood resilience if one wishes to set a fixed goal for reaching an
350 urban flood resilience status and also wish to evaluate its progress. The Resilience model of
351 the Surat city has its own dimension and variable for urban flood resilience. Possible
352 responses will be assessed by envisaging different scenarios of the relevant driver: Natural,
353 Institutional, Economic Social Trends and Physical (Batica and Gourbesville 2016). The
354 effectiveness of the resilience measure for the study area will be quantified. The resilience
355 attributes can be identified by which system shows itself to be resilient to the different kind of
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356 disturbances. Every dimension will help to evaluate the Flood Resilience Index FRI for the
357 study area. The weight assigned to all variables can be done using weighted indexes (Batica,
358 Gourbesville and Hu 2013). Scoring scale 1-5 with 1 being “very poor” resilience and 5
359 being “very good” resilience for all the variables have been constructed. Dimensions are
360 composed of 18 different variables, and the existing resilience framework has been described
361 in the Table 5. A flood resilience model of the Surat city has been shown in the Fig. 8. The
362 value of FRI for study areas is 2.83 which indicate the amount of flood risk, the urban system
363 is facing. This aforementioned value of FRI also indicates that is not up to the mark. In this
364 perspective, it is necessary to develop suitable Flood risk management strategies that seek to

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365 reduce the urban flood risk in there.

366

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367 Fig. 8 Flood resilience model of Surat city.

368

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369 Mitigation and Risk Transfer Measures

370 The main objective of flood risk management is to avoid, reduce or shift the

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371 consequences of flooding through Mitigation and Risk transfer measures (NRC 2013).
372 Mitigation should be aimed at the creation of resilient cities in the flood risk context which
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373 the current paper discusses some initial recommendations for Mitigation and Risk transfer
374 measures are:

375 • Flood Protective Embankment Scheme

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376 • Diversion of flood water to the existing creek (floodway) and ;

377 • Diversion of flood water from the creek to suggested detention pond and existing Pond.
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378 These mitigation measures aimed at lowering the vulnerability of people and property in
379 flood-prone areas.
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380 Flood Protective Embankment Scheme

381 It becomes highly essential to provide flood protection schemes on both the banks of
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382 River Tapi as the human civilization has been residing along its course since a long time
383 (Agnihotri and Patel 2008). The most important flood protection walls along the river Tapi
384 at Surat are the embankment wall and the retaining wall.
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385 Due to the construction of the Ukai dam across the river Tapi in the year 1972 under
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386 the “Partial Flood Protective Scheme”, Surat and its surrounding area were almost safe till the
387 year 1993. But during the flood events of the years 1994 and 1998, the flood protective
388 measures on River Tapi had proved insufficient because of the unfinished embankment
389 project. The main source of flood water entering into Surat City and its surrounding areas is
390 not only the overtopping of the embankment scheme but also due to the incompletion of the
391 same. During August of 2006, the twin-city of Surat and Hazira had experienced a massive
392 flood and had resulted in the greatest number of deaths and damages estimating up to Rs.
393 21,000 crores (Patel and Srivastava 2013). The existing flood protection wall is not
394 sufficient with respect to the length and height and also it is in a damaged condition. So, as
395 the first priority, restoration and strengthening of the old flood protective wall would be
396 required to prevent the flood waters from entering into the areas of Surat city. Therefore, the
397 SIC and SMC have carried out this work along the river Tapi in Surat. It was noted that the
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398 flood protection work of about 19.90 km on the right bank and 19.49 km on the left bank of
399 River Tapi was completed after the 2006 flood. The embankment’s RLs of both the right and
400 left bank increased profoundly up to 16.55–21.21 m and 16.00–18.40 m. Out of the total 15
401 numbers 12 sluice regulators have been completed. The embankment works have also been
402 almost completed of about 39.39 km out of 72.23 km. The Tapi Embankment scheme which
403 had been started in the year 1971-72 is still progressing. Presently the protection in the study
404 area against floods is inadequate. These incomplete embankment works can lead to increased
405 impacts of urban flooding and flooding risks in Surat city (Patel et al. 2017). The Flood risk
406 increases with increased urbanization and thus to protect the city from flood risk “Extended

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407 Flood Protective Embankment Scheme” appropriate to the flood protection measures has
408 been required to lower the flood risk in the study area. In order to avoid inundation on both
409 the banks, an extended embankment wall is proposed on both the banks of about 15.92 km on

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410 the right and 16.92 km on the left bank from Kathor Bridge to Magdalla Bridge in the Surat
411 city as shown in the Table 6. The extended embankment wall for flood protection in the
412 future has been proposed and shown in the Fig. 9. These strategies will help to reduce the

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413 impact of natural and man-made disaster especially with respect to flooding in the Tapi River.

414

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415 Fig. 9 Flood protective embankment scheme for the Tapi River.
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416

417 In some locations, due to the geographical situation or encroachment, the

418 embankment line was considered “incomplete”, moreover in some parts, gaps appeared in the
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419 embankment lines which made their construction impossible. An alternative approach to this
420 was “Diversion of floodwater” which would focus on lowering the flood risk during floods in
421 the floodplain of River Tapi.
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422 Diversion of Floodwater

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423 During a flood event, a part of the excess flow should be diverted from the main
424 channel so that the flow of the main river can be reduced and the flood can be managed
425 efficiently in the floodplain, and at the same time, it will assure greater safety to dikes and
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426 other flood control structures (Agnihotri and Patel 2008). Under the consideration of the
427 flood risk management researchers (Sahoo and Sreeja 2017) have suggested the use of
428 detention basin/pond to decrease the flood risk. The flow of river Tapi during the flood can be
429 diverted to detention ponds through various creeks so that the creeks will distribute the urban
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430 flood in a better way and ponds can manage the excess water more efficiently. There are two
431 possibilities of diverting the flood water from the river Tapi. The combined action consists of
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432 the following measures:

433 1. The flood water redirected from the river to the suggested diversion creek is 1, 00,000
434 cusec (2831 m3/s) on the right side and 1, 00,000 cusec ((2831 m3/s) on the left side of
435 the river.

436 2. The detention ponds are suggested to store an emission of 11, 15, 33,407 m3.

437 The general slope of the river is from north-east to south-west and influenced the topography
438 of Surat city (CDP 2006). The river Tapi flows via the northern part of the Surat city, hence
439 the runoff from this part naturally drains into Tapi. Whereas in the southern part of the city,
440 what has been proposed is that during the flood event, there should be a diversion of water
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441 from the Tapi to the creeks like Koyali, Mithee, Kankara, Bhedwad, Sonari situated on its left
442 bank which would finally meet at the Mindhola river and the remaining discharge into the
443 right side creeks like Tena, Sena, Orma, and Masma. Table 7 displays the information of the
444 creeks on both the side of the river. These creeks which were encroached upon by the slums
445 and the haphazard developments have been subjected to re-development in the urban context.
446 During the floods, water may be diverted from the Tapi to it’s left and right bank creeks. This
447 diversified water can be stored in 1) Proposed Detention pond and 2) Existing water bodies in
448 the study area which could be interlinked. Thus on the right bank of Tapi, this interlink
449 network will have its downstream outfall in the sea and on the left bank of the river its outfall

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450 in the Mindhola river/sea. This Mandola river is situated on the outskirts of the Surat city
451 where during the 2006 flood event, no sign of flooding was found.

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452 It is proposed that the construction of detention ponds would receive the extra flood
453 water discharge from the various creeks of the study area. The flood detention ponds have
454 been suggested to store the floodwater which will be located on both the side of the river

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455 from Kathor Bridge to Magdalla Bridge having a proper length, width, and depth. However,
456 to reduce flooding, the pond is suggested to be rectangular in shape with a small portion
457 initial depth so as set the initial volume of the detention pond (Sahoo and Pekkat 2017). It
458 should also be noted that the flooding problem can be resolved not only by the construction

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459 of one pond but by the construction of a number of ponds (Ardeshir et al. 2013; Sahoo and
460 Pekkat 2017). Thus to moderate the flood risk within the urban and suburban areas 20
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461 locations have been identified as ideal for the construction of detention ponds. The
462 rectangular shape detection points measuring in ArcGIS 10.5 and 1.50 m depth have been
463 assumed to define the volume of these ponds. Information regarding this is displayed in the
464 Table 8. A raster image (the georeferenced map of the drainage network of the Surat division)
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465 of the existing and the proposed features have been digitized in the form of a Shape (*.shp)
466 file for the preparation of the profile. Fig. 10 shows a map displaying the possibilities of the
467 diverted floodwater from the river to the creeks and later to the existing pond and suggested
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468 detention ponds. It has been made with the help of the CartoSat-1 DEM topography map for
469 the same using the Spatial Analyst tool in ArcGIS.
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470
471 Fig. 10 (a) Drainage map of Surat city (b) Topography map with stream order and
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472 (c) Profile of Flood Diversion for Surat city

473
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474 One of the major purposes of the flood management approach would not only be to
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475 provide a space for the storage of flood water but also make that space accessible in the
476 absence of floods. (Silva et al. 2004). The alignment of the detention pond should pass
477 through the open land which would make it ideal for the construction of these ponds so as to
478 retain the flood water in the harmless locations. Moreover, such an open land has come under
479 the low lying areas and the salty land, which otherwise was also submerged during the flood.
480 By diverting the water, the flood depth of the inundated areas of the Surat city and the
481 surrounding region will be decreased and the loss of lives and property can be minimized.
482 Apart from this, the flood water which is clear water (not Salty) may be stored in detention
483 ponds and could be used during the period of scarcity. In order to avoid flood risk in the
484 urban area, the flood water can be discharged into the pond, by considering it as a potential
485 resource and thereby justifying the need to harvest it. The increase in the area of the detention
486 pond will help to reduce the inundation depth and area in the study area. This detention pond
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487 will also help in reducing the effect of saltwater intrusion. Total nine creeks and twenty
488 detention ponds on both the sides of the river are proposed in the following way:
489 1) At the end of the left bank - creeks like Koyali, Mithee, Kankara, Bhedwad, Sonari
490 carried the water which is to be stored in the suggested detention ponds (no. 1 to 10)
491 and forward when they are brimming.
492 2) Alteration of water from the right bank - creeks like Sena, Tena, Masma, and Orma
493 will carry the water which is to be stored in the suggested detention ponds (no. 11 to
494 20) and forward when they are satiated.
495 3) The interlinking canal can be thus proposed for joining of the detention ponds on both

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496 the sides of the river Tapi

497 Surat city and its surrounding region have more than 100 lakes. As the city is expanding

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498 rapidly, it engulfs satellite villages in the urban area as well these lakes have encroached upon
499 by slums and haphazard development or even left to be misused. Hence, the village pond or
500 lakes are subject to re-development in an urban context.

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501 RESULT AND DISCUSSION
502 Since historical times, Surat city has experienced disastrous floods. But the great

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503 flood events of 1968 and 2006 have led the major part of the city under destruction. An
504 emission of merely 25,768 m3s–1 during the flood event of the year 2006 had reached a level
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505 of 12.09 m at the Nehru Bridge, which was similar to the level of 12.08 m acceded by the
506 historically maximum flood discharge of 43,892 m3s–1 in the year 1968. Yet the flood event of
507 2006 was more disastrous for the city as compared to the flood event of the year 1968.
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508 Though the amount of flood level discharge of both the year 1968 and 2006 was similar, yet
509 the city was affected more in the latter with even more economic losses and threatens human
510 life. As the process of industrialization flourished, at the peripherals of the study area, the
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511 existing population considerably increased due to migrants from outside the study area. The
512 population density of Surat has increased from 1551 persons/km2 in 1971 to 13680
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513 persons/km2 by 2011. However, a rise in the population of the study area intensified the
514 changes in land use. In the present study, an approach was suggested and utilized, to analyze
515 the effect of urban growth on Flood Risk for the year 1968 and 2006 and to develop
516 mitigation strategies for flood management.
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517 The statistics show that Land use class of the urban area had increased from 44.12
518 km2 in the year 1968 to 75.32 km2 in the year 2006 out of the total geographical area. Table 2
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519 demonstrates that from the year 1968 to 2006, built-up areas have increased approximately to
520 25.83 km2 while open land decreased to 43.97 km2, and water bodies consequently decreased
by 2.10 km2. A recent trend shows that nearly 25.70% of low lying lands have been converted
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521
522 to urban land between the years 1968 to 2006. The flood estimation using the Flood
523 Submergence Map of the years 1968 and 2006 demonstrated that 55% area was flooded in
524 1968, while in 2006 the inundation percentage was 35%. This information was subsequently
525 integrated with LULC of respective flood years. And the analysis revealed that the spreading
526 of water decreased but due to the urbanization, the exposure of the urban areas to flood
527 increased from 35.45 km2 (1968) to 45.00 km2 (2006). It is interesting to note that the floods
528 of the year 2006 as compared to that of 1968 engulfed 28.57% of urban land. Hence, the
529 vulnerability increased with the increasing exposure of urban areas to the floods. Further
530 analysis indicated that because of an impervious obstruction, a barrier got created which did
531 not allow the flood water to spread. The advancement of flood water during the flood event
532 of 2006 was less as compared to that of the year 1968, yet the depth and the stagnation of the
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533 2006 flood water were more; resulting into more destruction and hazardous damage.
534 Quantitative assessments of these floods revealed that in 2006 as compared to that of 1968,
535 52% increase in the imperviousness resulted in the increase of the flood exposed urban area
536 and a subsequent increase of the average flood depth by 28.75% and 38 % respectively. The
537 floods caused damage to the study area amounting to Rs. 100 million in 1968, and Rs. 215
538 billion in 2006, which clearly indicates that flood damage has increased due to urban
539 expansion. This shows that Flood Risk Indicator (IFR) increased from 4.46 to12.84 due to the
540 corresponding urban land-use change for the year 1968 and 2006 respectively.

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541 Urban development has taken place along the bank of the river, around the river, and
542 in the Tapi river course from Kathor to Hazira. When the topographical sheet of the year
543 1968 and the map of Surat’s natural drainage network have been superimposed on the

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544 satellite image of the aforementioned study area, it has been found that the natural drainage
545 have vanished which were carrying rainwater/flood water toward the Arabian Sea. All new
546 settlement areas Abhava, Khajod, Sarsana Bhatha-Bhatpore, Dummas beach, banks near west

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547 zone (Pal, Adajan) and industries located at nearby villages caused an obstruction to the flow
548 of water. Thus, the new urban settlements have posed a threat to the drainage system laid
549 under them. Extensive industries like Reliance, ONGC, Kribhco, Essar, HPCL, GAIL, NTPC,
550 and others have set up their planning in Hazira/ flood plain areas by after filling up natural

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551 land in the estuary area. This area may constitute an escape route for Tapi flood water to pass
552 by. Construction of solid and high boundary walls (running into kilometers) by various
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553 industrial units could not provide enough space for flood water to pass. Before the
554 development of this area, flood water used to spread and drain into the sea without
555 obstruction. Thereby, the vastness of the drainage area was considerably narrowed down and
556 blocked by the existing urbanization and industrial development. Illegal landfills and the
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557 accretion in both sides of the riverbank like Adajan, Pal and Hazira Townships, Temples,
558 RTO buildings are some of the settlements which are considered as undesirable and thus
559 make the river segments narrower. Even a small flood of 8495 m3/s would flood the city. This
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560 irregular and unauthorized construction have continued even after the flooding of August
561 2006. New developments like the rehabilitation colony at Kosad, Sarsana conventional
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562 center, and Kidiabet area, these developments are in low lying areas which are bound to be
563 affected by floods in river Tapi. It is also observed that the weight has not been given to the
564 proper execution of the Town planning. Instead of monitoring these urban growths, current
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565 city development policies are consciously accelerating it exponentially. Therefore, the
566 construction activities in the floodplains are carried out without any remedial planning. As a
567 result of industrial development and the construction of infrastructure; the natural drainage
568 got covered and the ground levels got raised, thereby creating an obstruction. As a result of
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569 obstruction, the retention period was increased as well as afflux levels had gone high.
570 Moreover, the total prevention of flood is a myth, hence undertaking the aforementioned
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571 practices may lead to disastrous solutions.

572 Historical flood damages provide basic data for assessing flood risk and are useful in
573 the successful implementation of resilient strategies. Based on the description in Table 5, the
574 resilience model for Surat city has been prepared. This resilience model help in disaster
575 management, and statutory body of the city to cope effectively with flood risk. There is an
576 urban community with FRI=2.83 which need for introducing a functional Mitigation
577 Infrastructure framework. A combination of old and new strategies is proposed in the next
578 step to complement the research and highlight various options of urban risk mitigation. This
579 framework includes 1) Flood Protective Embankment Scheme, (2) Diversion of Floodwater.
580 Due to the provision of “Flood Protective Embankment Scheme”, the cross-section of the
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581 river will change and its carrying capacity will be enhanced. If this is not completed, Floods
582 may cause further losses such as the embankment gap, it's breaching (experienced in the
583 flood year 1968, and 2006), or even overtopping. Moreover, the consequence of the indirect
584 hazard after the flood should also be taken into consideration, which thus leads to an
585 alternative solution, i.e. a Diversion of floodwater. When a detention pond is provided in the
586 study area, the flood discharge in the city will decrease from 220 million m3 to 110   million
587 m3 (50%) for the land use of the year 2006, and flood depth will decrease from 2.004 m to
588 0.98 m (50%). Thus, the increase in the area of the detention pond will help to reduce the
589 inundation depth and area in the study area i.e. Surat.

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590 CONCLUSION

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591 As mentioned in the result, the average rise in water level and the urban exposure area
592 in the flood year 2006 was higher as compared to the flood year 1968, mainly on account of
593 horizontal and vertical growth of urbanization. In this study, the changes in the land cover

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594 and its impact on flooding were evaluated. This quantitative analysis shows that LULC
595 changes caused by urban expansion increase the flood risks. Furthermore, urbanization
596 increases exposure to flooding and flood depth in the study area which plays a greater role in
597 flood risk. However, the present trend shows that land development is being done through

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598 artificial infilling of some natural drainage or their sprawling inside of the floodplains
599 resulting in the decrease in the area where the flood water could spread. These processes
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600 evidently have a detrimental impact on flooding and thereby aggravate the flood risk. If such
601 constructions already developed, then it is almost a necessity to provide an alternate route for
602 natural drainage to flow. Khar land, wasteland and existing pond which could be utilized for
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603 flood cushion retention or spread to ensure the safety of Surat city. The diversion of flood
604 water - an alternative solution can be further complemented by two other actions that improve
605 flood risk: use of existing creeks, bringing it back into the urban landscape and the
606 construction of the storage detention pond for providing more space to flood water. Hence
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607 during the floods, water may be diverted from the river Tapi to its left bank creeks like
608 Koyali, Mithee, Kankara, Bhedwad, Sonari and the right bank creeks like Sena, Tena,
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609 Masma, and Orma. Twenty detention ponds are proposed to store these diverted flood water
610 at the right and the left side of river Tapi. With the provision of the detention ponds in the
611 study area, the flood depth will decrease by almost 50% in the city. The proposed model is a
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612 guide for the development of an action plan and its execution will be for the better resiliency
613 of Surat city.

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783 Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) Introduction.
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785 Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) Contribution.
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810 Tellman, B., Saiers, J. E., & Cruz, O. A. R. (2016). “Quantifying the impacts of land use
811 change on flooding in data-poor watersheds in El Salvador with community-based model
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817 Vis, M., Klijn, F., De Bruijn, K. M., and Van Buuren, M. (2003). “Resilience strategies for
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826 Zhang, H., Ma, W. C., & Wang, X. R. (2008). “Rapid urbanization and implications for flood
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Table 1. High floods in River Tapi in 18th and 19th century

Discharge Maximum flood

Sr. Flood
Date & Month level at Nehru
No. Event m3/sec Lakh Cusecs bridge (m)

1 1883 31st July 28,458 10.05 11.05

th
2 1884 09 September 23,956 8.46 10.05
nd
3 1894 22 July 22,682 8.01 10.33

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th
4 1942 06 August 24,352 8.60 10.56
th
5 1944 18 August 33,527 11.84 11.32
th

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6 1945 24 August 28,996 10.24 11.09
th
7 1949 17 September 23,843 8.42 10.49
th
8 1959 17 September 36,642 12.94 11.55

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th
9 1968 06 August 44,174 15.60 12.08
th
10 1994 08 September 14,866 5.25 10.10
th
11 1998 16 September 19,057 6.73 11.40

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12 2006 07 August 25,768 9.10 12.09
a
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Note: Data from Central Water Commission (CWC), Surat
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Table 2. Land use- Land covers statistics of the study area
Year 1968 Year 2006
Sr.
Category Area % To Area % To
No. 2 2
km Total Area km Total Area
1 Urban area 49.49 15.96 75.32 24.29
2 Water bodies area 15.82 05.10 13.72 04.44
3 Vegetation area 100.28 32.35 120.52 38.87
4 Open space area 144.45 46.59 100.48 32.40

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Table 3. The monetary value of different economic sectors affected due to flood 2006.
Sr. No. Affected sectors Damage in Rs.
1 Agriculture production 2,000 crore
2 Industrial losses (direct and indirect) 16,000 crore
3 Shops and commercial establishment 1,000 crore
4 Public infrastructure 2,500 crore
Total damage in Rs. 21,500 crore
Note: b People’s committee on Gujarat Floods 2006: A Report (Thakar, 2007)

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Table 4. Flood risk indicator analysis

The
Exposure areaAverage
Ukai level
Sq.km. Flood Flood Absolute
Urban Flood at
Flood event depth risk damage
expansion discharge hope
Urban Agriculture m indicator Rs.
m3/sec bridge
area area
(m)
Aug.06,1968 15.96% 35.45 48.00 1.49 4.46 6,23,595 44,174 12.08

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Aug.08,2006 24.29% 45.00 42.00 2.07 12.84 23,88,88,888 25,768 12.09

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Absolute damage in 1968 = Total damages (P.W.D. Govt. of Gujarat, 1971)/ Gold value
= Rs.10,10, 22,445/ Rs.162 = Rs. 6,23,595
Absolute damage in 2006 = Total damages / Gold value

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= Rs.21,500 crore / Rs.9000 = Rs. 23,88,88,888
(Gold value from Gold history, 1968)

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Table 5. Urban flood resilience indicators for Surat city
Category Justification Effect
Natural
Rainfall The average rainfall in the catchment area is about 785 mm and average 2
yearly runoff is 17,226 MCM (Agnihotri and Patel 2008).
Discharge After the flood of 2006, the safe carrying capacity of the river near Surat 2
Capacity is reduced to 4531 m3 /s to 5660 m3 /s (1.60 to 2.0 Lac Cusecs) (Patel
& Gundaliya 2014).

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Topography Surat terrain is almost flat terrain; its elevation varies from 4 m to 18.5 2
m from MSL (Patel & Gundaliya 2014).
Tide Surat experiences a tidal range of about 5 to 6 m (Surat Resilience 2
Strategy 2017, pg 20).

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Coastal 10 m erosion is an average annual rate; the sea has encroached up to 3
Erosion about 80 m at places in some parts of South Gujarat coast (Strategy, S.
C. R. 2011, pg. 26).

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Physical or infrastructure
Land Use Also, the banks of the Tapi river are illegally encroached by industries, 1
housing colonies, and buildings, reducing its carrying capacity. Hazira

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landfill, - high-level embankment of Rail, roads, and canals- cut off the
flow and creating obstruction to the flow of flood water, increasing rate
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of urbanization and human-induced topographic changes indicate the
loss of open agricultural land to city infrastructure and activities
associated with industrialized, urbanized economies (Strategy, S. C. R.
2011).
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Mitigation Incomplete protection works/embankment/ sluice regulators which 1

Infrastructure allowed entry of flood water which ultimately found its way towards
and utility urban and industrial areas. The case of the 2006 floods indicates the lack
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of coping strategies (Peeyush Sekhsaria 2010).

Slum As per 2001 Census, about 20% of the Surat’s population (0.49 million) 2
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lived in slums. The number of slums has since gone up to 773 (Census
of India, 2011) with the expansion in the city’s limit in 2006 (Surat
Resilience Strategy 2017, pg 51).
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Warning and End-to-End Early Warning System for foods (under ACCCRN) was 4
Awareness established. Under the End-to-End Early Warning System project,
various tasks like flood level marking on lamp posts at key locations and
development of flood vulnerability atlas (at ward and zone levels) to
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minimize loss were completed. As a part of the Asian Cities Climate

Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) initiative, SMC and TARU
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conceptualized and developed the Urban Services Monitoring System

(UrSMS). SMC has launched a GIS portal
(www.gis.suratmuniciple.org), which depicts spatial information
(Preliminary Resilience Assessment of Surat City 2016).
Social
Volunteer Nature Club, 4
organization Lions Club, Surat
and NGO’s Rotary Club, Surat
Surat Citizen Council Trust (SCCT)
Sarvajainik Education Society (SCET)
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People Surat has the highest percentage of the migrant population in India (55% 2
mobility of the total population (Strategy, S. C. R. 2011, pg. 17).
Growth & Surat is the fourth fastest growing city globally; the average annual 3
present growth rate for Surat is 4.99 percent (city mayor’s report).
population The population of Surat in 2011 is 44,66,826 and density of the city is
13680 persons per square kilometer. (SMC Introduction).
Economic
GDP The city has registered an annualized GDP growth rate of 11.5 percent. 3
Among the highest income tax paying cities in Asia in 2010–11, Surat

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contributed Rs. 22,000 million to the national exchequer. (Surat
Resilience Strategy 2017, pg 52)
Economy Its economic base consists of textile manufacturing, trade, diamond- 4

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(Occupation of cutting and polishing industries, intricate zari embroidery, and chemical
Urban industries. Petrochemical and natural gas-based heavy engineering
function) industries at Hazira (near Surat), established by leading industry houses

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(public, private and multinational companies) such as the Oil and
Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Reliance, Essar, and Larsen and
Toubro-Shell are also a part of Surat’s economy (SMC Contribution).
Income level In India, Surat current holds the status of a city with one of the highest 3

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per capita income and claims to be zero- unemployment city. But, at the
city level, about one-third of the households have income stability index
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less than 5 indicating need for expansion of skills (Strategy, S. C. R.
2011, pg.38)
Institutional
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Institutional TARU Leading Edge Pvt. Ltd 4

Organization ACCCRN was launched in 2008 and is funded by The Rockefeller
Foundation as part of their 9-year initiative aimed at building Climate
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Change Resilience.
JNNUM (Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewable Mission)
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GIDC (Gujarat Industrial Development Corporation)

GPCB (Gujarat Pollution Control Board)
Transportation 80 percent of the area of the city has been effectively connected through 3
capacity, a total length of 1133.37 km. of the road network. Based on the city
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connectivity, mobility plan, SMC has undertaken the implementation of Bus Rapid
and mobility Transit System (BRTS) (Surat CDP 2006-2012, pg 50).
The Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) 4
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effectiveness Southern Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SGCCI)

of statutory Sardar Vallbhbhai National Institute of Technology (SVNIT)
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Institution of Hajira area Development Authority (HADA)

Surat Irrigation Dept, Surat (SIC)
Police Dept, Surat
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Gujarat State Disaster Management
Authority, GoG (ONGC)
Surat Urban Development Authority (SUDA)
Veer Narmad South Gujarat University (VNSGU)
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Table 6. Flood protective embankment data for Tapi river.
Right Left Total
Sr.
Work in detail bank bank length
No.
(m) (m) (m)
1 Embankment wall completed (raise ht by 2.00 m) 11,522 8,700 20,222
2 Retaining wall completed (raise ht by 2.00 m) 4,417 1,951 6,368
3 Work in progress 2,970 2,195 5,165

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4 Old city wall ------- 4,840 4,840
5 Work completed by SMC 1,000 1,800 2,800

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6 Proposed work 15,921 16,920 32,841
Total 35,830 36,406 72,236

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Table 7. Details of various creeks on the right and the left bank of the river.

Sr. Name of At the starting location Length from the

No. Creeks Latitude Longitude origin(km)
Left side creeks
1 Koyali 21°12’59” N 72°52’48” E 8.35

2 Mithee 21°10’18” N 73°53’56” E 53.28

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3 Kankara 22°13’00”N 73°24’45”E 61.43(8.15-surat)

4 Bhedwad 22°15’15” N 73°16’30” E 15.00

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5 Sonari 21°07’31” N 72°50’00” E 21.18

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Right side creeks
6 Tena 21°10' 43"N 72°45'45"E 34.00

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7 Sena 21°16’ 24” N 72°54’51” E
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8 Masma 21°19' 42”N 72°44'08"E 15.00

9 Orma 21°19' 53"N 72°42'36"E 12.00

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Table 8. Details of the various detention ponds on right and left bank of the river.
Sr. Location Area
No. Name of place Latitude Longitude Sq. Mt.
1 Umaravada 21°11'40.28"N 72°51'20.32"E 37,471
Kumbharia
2 21°10'58.14"N 72°53'6.15"E 4,51,721
(Mithi)
3 Kharvasa 21° 7'21.42"N 72°53'27.92"E 10,37,894

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4 Bamroli 21° 8'17.74"N 72°48'50.34"E 1,64,947

5 Dundi 21° 7'37.08"N 72°48'41.23"E 25,9301

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6 Bhimrad 21° 7'38.09"N 72°48'2.15"E 4,74,541

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7 Budiya 21° 6'22.65"N 72°49'25.57"E 13,08,368

8 Umber 21° 3'24.30"N 72°50'0.77"E 98,57,598

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9 Khajod 21° 5'16.53"N 72°46'3.07"E 1,20,20,484

10 Abhva 21° 6'24.31"N 72°45'9.30"E 17,15,573

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11 Dhorn Pardi 21°19'2.35"N 72°56'38.67"E 28,69,256

12 Sayan 21°20'33.04"N 72°52'59.08"E 20,71,692

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13 Karamala 21°18'14.93"N 72°49'13.78"E 24,68,668

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14 Olpad 21°20'52.65"N 72°46'50.93"E 29,41,239

15 Jothan 21°16'36.23"N 72°47'35.71"E 6,23,652

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16 Ambheta 21°15'23.207"N 72°45'10.884"E 26,01,763

17 Sarol 21°17'8.05"N 72°43'7.99"E 46,99,678
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18 Pal Bhatha 21°11'40.15"N 72°46'5.63"E 7,49,498

19 Barbodhan 21°12'26.14"N 72°42'32.11"E 1,44,0874

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20 Sena Tena 21°15'12.35"N 72°36'20.57"E 2,65,61,387

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Total detention surface area 7,43,55,605

Total detention pond volume = 74.35 sq. km x 1.50 m = 11,15,33,407 m3
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List of Figures

Fig. 1 Location map of the study area.

Fig. 2 Flowchart of the methodology adopted for analysis.

Fig. 3 Flood history of Surat city.

Fig. 4 (a) LULC map of year 1968 and (b) LULC map of year 2006.

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Fig. 5 Flood Submergence map of the year 1968 and 2006.

Fig. 6 (a) Urban submergence area of year 1968 and

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(b) Urban submergence area of year 2006.
Fig. 7 Flood inundation depth for the year 1968 and 2006.

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Fig. 8 Flood resilience model of Surat city.

Fig. 9 Flood protective embankment scheme for the Tapi River.

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Fig. 10 (a) Drainage map of Surat city (b) Topography map with stream order
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(c) Profile of Flood Diversion for Surat city
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Fig. 4 Location map of the study area.
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Data Identified of two Flood event- Flood Risk Flood Resilience Flood Risk mitigation
Collection flood year 1968 and 2006 Assessment Assessment measure for study area

Spatial indicator Impact Flood Risk

mapping analysis indicator

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LULC Map Flood Hazard Flood Vulnerability

Fig. 5 Flowchart of the methodology adopted for analysis.

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Flood history of Surat city
16
15 Discharge lakh cusec 15.6
d 14 Water Level at Hop Bridge(m) 12.9
12.94
i 13 11.32 12.08
11.05 11.09 11.4
s 12 10.56
10.33 10.49
c 11 10.05 10.1
h 10 11.84 11.55
9 10.05 10.24
a

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8
r 8.46 8.6 8.42 9.1
7 8.01
g
6
e 5.25 6.73
5

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4
1883

1884

1894

1942

1944

1945

1949

1959

1968

1994

1998

2006
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Flood events

Fig. 6 Flood history of Surat city.

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(a) (b)

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Fig. 4 (a) LULC map of year 1968 and (b) LULC map of year 2006.
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Fig. 5 Flood Submergence map of the year 1968 and 2006.

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(a) (b)

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Fig. 6 (a) Urban submergence area of year 1968 (b) Urban submergence area of year 2006
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 flood depth (m)

0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00

Varacha water works compound

Lal darwaja (moti seri)
Zapa bazaar (masjid)
Tower
Mali faliu (maskati)
Bhagal char rasta
Chowk Bazar (Muziam)
Gujarat mitra (old civil chawk)
Makkai pool swimming pul
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Kadarshad ni nad (sigma school)
Duch Road Opp. GIDC Office
C Dutch garden post office
Mahila bank (balaji road)
Chuata bazaar char rasta
Ambaji road
Chuata bazar
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Dhastipura (masjid)
Sahpore
Saiyad pura (main road)
Sayedpura pumping
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Variyavi bazaar (madariwad)

various location in surat city

Haripura (garden mill)
D Badekha chakla
Pani ni bhit char rast
Subhash chowk
M Gopipura ( hanuman mandir)
Navsari bazaar (thakor farsan)
Sagram pura (zanda sheri)
Sagrampura main road
Khapatiya chakla
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Gopipura main road
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Mahidhar pura (ramji mandir)

Nanavat (government reshnig)
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Year 2006
Year 1968

Athwa gate char rasta (yatimkhana)

Gandhi engineering college (ring…
average (2006)
average (1968)

Adarsh society
Pal rander
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Sugam socity (adajan)
Fig. 7 Flood inundation depth for the year 1968 and 2006.

Lalgate
Surat Electricity co. ( suraj tokis)
Unapani road
Rander (tarvadi gorath)
RI
Falsavadi (Niranjan mill)
Mota varachha gam
Hodi bunglow
PT
Kadampalli
Adajan depo
Bhavanivad (haripura)
Bhagatalav
Adajan patiya
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PT
RI
Fig. 8 Flood resilience model of Surat city.

U SC
AN
M
D
TE
EP
C
AC
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PT
RI
U SC
AN
Fig. 9 Flood protective embankment scheme for the Tapi River.
M
D
TE
CEP
AC
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PT
RI
U SC
(a) (b)
AN
M
D
TE
C EP
AC

(c)

Fig. 10 (a) Drainage map of Surat city (b) Topography map with stream order
(c) Profile of Flood Diversion for Surat city