Energy xxx (2013) 1e10

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Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/energy

A GIS (geographic information system)-based optimization model for

estimating the electricity generation of the rooftop PV (photovoltaic)
system
Taehoon Hong*, Choongwan Koo, Joonho Park, Hyo Seon Park
Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, 262 Seongsanno, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 120-749, Republic of Korea

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The global PV (photovoltaic) generation market has been rapidly growing. In the introduction of a PV
Received 27 June 2013 system, the electricity generation efficiency of the PV system depends on regional factors and on-site
Received in revised form installation factors. It has a significant effect on the returns on investment. Therefore, this study con-
28 November 2013
ducted a sensitivity analysis on how the impact factors of the rooftop PV system affect its electricity
Accepted 30 November 2013
generation. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, this study aimed to ultimately develop a GIS-
Available online xxx
based optimization model for estimating the electricity generation of the rooftop PV system.
Several impact factors were used in the sensitivity analysis. The result of this study showed that there
Keywords:
Rooftop photovoltaic system
were 1.12-, 1.62-, and 1.37-fold differences in the annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV system in
Geographical information system South Korea due to the regional factor, the azimuth of the installed panel, and the slope of the installed
Optimization panel, respectively. Using a GIS-based optimization model, final decision-maker could easily and accu-
Sensitivity analysis rately estimate the electricity generation of the rooftop PV system in a preliminary feasibility study.
Electricity generation Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
The global use of fossil fuels has caused grave environmental
crises including energy depletion and pollution and is projected to
increase by more than one-third by 2035. Despite this rapid in-
crease in energy usage, coal has a reserves-to-production ratio of
about 128 years, natural gas 54 years, and oil 41 years, according to
the ‘2010 Survey of Energy Resources.’ Given this background, if the
annual increase rate of energy consumption from 2008 to 2035 is
assumed to be 1.4%, fossil fuel reserves will be fully depleted within
50 years [1e8].
To overcome such a crisis, there has been growing interest in
NRE (new renewable energy) [9e12]. As of 2009, NRE accounted for
about 18% of global electricity generation and 25% of the world’s
electricity generation facilities (1230 GW of 4800 GW). According to
the ‘Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012,’ global
renewable energy generation will increase by 40% over the period
from 2011 to 2017 [13]. Since 2008, the U.S. and the EU have been
establishing more renewable energy power plants than conven-
tional fossil energy power plants. According to a press release,
renewable energy power plants accounted for about 60% of newly
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ82 2 2123 5788; fax: þ82 2 365 4668.
E-mail address: hong7@yonsei.ac.kr (T. Hong).
installed power plants in the EU and more than 50% in the U.S [14e
17]. Also, the International Energy Agency expects to double the
share of renewable energy by 2035, compared to in 2008. In other
words, it is forecast to increase from 19% in 2008 to almost 33% by
2035, which means renewable energy could catch up with coal [18].
Regarding the global energy and environmental issue, solar
energy (including PV (photovoltaic) energy) is recognized to play
an important role in the renewable and sustainable development
[19e25]. The interest in PV energy has been rapidly increased as the
radioactive pollution and energy storage issues were raised in the
wake of the nuclear-power-plant accident in Fukushima, Japan
[26]. The PV market was only 7.2 GW in 2009, but it was increased
more than twofold to 16.6 GW in 2010. As of 2011, the installation
capacity of global PV system went up to 40 GW. Especially, with the
continuous downward trend in the cost of the PV system, it is ex-
pected that the PV market would be expanded to achieve the net-
zero energy buildings and the carbon emissions reduction target
[27e31].
Keeping pace with such global trend, the South Korean gov-
ernment is promoting various incentive policies such as financial
support for NRE projects, the 1 Million Green Homes Project, and
the Feed-in-Tariff [32e35]. Among NREs, the PV system has the
highest potential as a sustainable energy source. Particularly,
crystalline silicon, commonly used by the semiconductor industry,
is the material used in 94% of all PV modules today. Thus, it is

0360-5442/$ e see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.082

Please cite this article in press as: Hong T, et al., A GIS (geographic information system)-based optimization model for estimating the electricity
generation of the rooftop PV (photovoltaic) system, Energy (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.082
2 T. Hong et al. / Energy xxx (2013) 1e10
considered that the PV system has great potential in the export
market since South Korea is one of leading countries in semi-
conductor technology [36].
In spite of the various advantages of the PV system including
the government’s financial support, the decrease in the systems’
unit cost, and their high potentials, one major obstacle remains:
the high initial investment cost. Therefore, it is crucial to assess
the ROI (return on investment) in introducing the PV system by
accurately estimating its electricity generation. The electricity
generation of the PV system is affected by various impact factors
such as (i) regional geographical information; (ii) regional mete-
orological information; and (iii) on-site installation information.
Therefore, a sensitivity analysis should be conducted on how the
impact factors of the rooftop PV system affect its electricity
generation.
In previous studies, various analyses have been conducted on
the impact factors of the PV system [37e60]. Zhao et al. [37]
analyzed that the optimal installation angle of a PV panel depen-
ded on the installation location. Dincer and Meral [38] analyzed the
temperature as a factor that impacts the efficiency of a PV solar cell.
It was concluded that the temperature of a solar cell should be kept
in a lower temperature as the optimal condition. Hwang et al. [39]
also conducted an optimization analysis of the building integrated
PV system in office buildings. To generate the maximum amount of
electricity, they analyzed various factors, including the azimuth and
slope of the installed panel, and the installation distance to the
module length ratio. Siraki and Pillay [40] focused on the change of
the azimuth and slope of the installed panel depending on both the
regional latitude and the surrounding buildings.
While these previous studies individually analyzed the impact
factors of the PV system, they failed to comprehensively analyze
them. Therefore, the objective of this study is to conduct a
comprehensive sensitivity analysis of how the electricity genera-
tion of the PV system would change from the complex interaction
of the aforementioned impact factors. Based on the results of the
sensitivity analysis, this study aims to ultimately develop a GIS-
based optimization model for estimating the electricity genera-
tion of the rooftop PV system. Using a GIS-based optimization
Table 1
Reviews of previous studies on the impact factors of the rooftop PV system.
Variables Attributes
Independent Regional Geographical Latitude
variable factors information
Monthly meridian
altitude
Meteorological Monthly average
information daily solar radiation
Monthly average
temperature
On-site On-site installation The azimuth of the
installation information installed panel (AoP)
factor
The slope of the
installed panel (SoP)
Type of the panel
Type of the inverter
Target variable e e Electricity generation
Please cite this article in press as: Hong T, et al., A GIS (geographic information system)-based optimization model for estimating the electricity
generation of the rooftop PV (photovoltaic) system, Energy (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.082
model, final decision-maker could easily and accurately estimate
the electricity generation of the rooftop PV system in a preliminary
feasibility study.
This study was conducted in three steps: (i) the key factors
affecting the electricity generation of the rooftop PV system were
selected through an extensive literature review and interviews
with experts; (ii) a sensitivity analysis on how the impact factors of
the rooftop PV system affect its electricity generation was con-
ducted through an energy simulation; and (iii) using the GIS
(geographic information system) and genetic algorithm, the
optimal annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV system and
the corresponding optimal SoP were visually proposed by region in
South Korea.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Definition of the impact factors of the rooftop PV system
The following impact factors of the rooftop PV system were
derived from an extensive literature review and interviews with
experts (i.e., solar photovoltaic staff of Parsons Brinckerhoff, Oer-
likon Solar, and Hilti Corporation): (i) regional geographical infor-
mation; (ii) regional meteorological information; and (iii) on-site
installation information. As shown in Table 1, the regional
geographical information is classified by latitude and monthly
meridian altitude; the regional meteorological information is
classified by the MADSR (monthly average daily solar radiation) and
the monthly average temperature; and the on-site installation in-
formation is classified by the AoP (azimuth of the installed panel),
the SoP (slope of the installed panel), and the type of the panel and
inverter.
The data on the impact factors were collected in 78 regions in
South Korea. However, the MADSR data were measured at 24 of the
78 weather stations nationwide (refer to Table S1). The MADSR data
at the 54 other weather stations were gleaned from the results of
previous studies (refer to Table S2). Koo et al. [61], as in previous
research, developed an A-CBR (advanced Case-Based Reasoning)
model for MADSR estimation using the monthly geographic and
Detailed Reference
description
( ) N Crook et al. [42], Hummon et al. [56], Levinson et al. [43],
Liu et al. [44], Siraki and Pillay [40], Tang and Wu [51],
Tiris and Tiris [52], Zhao et al. [37]

() Kaldellis and Zafirakis [54], Li and Lam [48],
Zhao et al. [37]
( ) kWh/m2/day Crook et al. [42], Kaldellis and Zafirakis [54], Li and
Lam [48], Siraki and Pillay [40],
( ) C Braun et al. [57], Dincer and Meral [38], Green [59],
Hoffmann and Koehl [58]

() Asowata et al. [53], Gopinathan et al. [50],
Gunerhan and Hepbasli [49], Hummon et al. [56],
Hussein et al. [46], Jafarkazemi and Saadabadi [47],
Kaldellis and Zafirakis [54], Levinson et al. [43], Li and Lam [48],
Siraki and Pillay [40], Tang and Wu [51], Ubertini and Desideri [45]
() 
Asowata et al. [53], Bojic et al. [55], Gunerhan and Hepbasli [49],
Huld et al. [60], Hummon et al. [56], Hussein et al. [46],
Hwang et al. [39], Jafarkazemi and Saadabadi [47],
Kaldellis and Zafirakis [54], Li and Lam [48], Liu et al. [44],
Siraki and Pillay [40], Tang and Wu [51], Tiris and Tiris [52],
Ubertini and Desideri [45], Zhao et al. [37]
() Li and Lam [48], Ordóñez et al. [41]
() Li and Lam [48], Ordóñez et al. [41]
( ) kWh e
 T. Hong et al. / Energy xxx (2013) 1e10
meteorological data measured in 15 regions for 10 years. Also, Hong
et al. [62] estimated the MADSR at the 54 unmeasured locations in
South Korea by using the A-CBR model developed by Koo et al. [61].
A total of 78 regional data (consisting of the 24 locations with the
measured MADSR data and the 54 locations with the estimated
MADSR data) were used as the data for the MADSR in this study. For
detailed information on the algorithms for the A-CBR model, refer
to the Koo et al. [61] and Hong et al. [62]. Using the meteorological
data in 78 weather stations nationwide (which area measured by
the Korea Meteorological Administration), the monthly average
temperature was collected (refer to Table S3). The latitudes in 78
regions were collected from the geographical information offered
by Google EarthÔ. Also, the monthly meridian altitude was calcu-
lated using Eq. (1) (refer to Table S4) [63].
s ¼ 90+  4  ε (1)
where, s is the minimum incidence angle of the sun (monthly
meridian altitude by region), 4 is the regional latitude, and ε is the
tilt angle of the Earth’s axis by month (e.g., the tilt angles at the
summer and winter solstice are 23.5 and 23.5 , respectively).
2.2. Sensitivity analysis on the impact factors of the rooftop PV
system
A sensitivity analysis on how the impact factors of the rooftop
PV system affect its electricity generation was conducted using the
software program called “RETScreen,” which was co-developed by
specialists from the Department of Natural Resources in Canada
and the United Nations Environment Programme. First, a sensitivity
analysis was conducted depending on the regional factor, the AoP,
and the SoP. Next, a sensitivity analysis was conducted by simul-
taneously considering the AoP and the SoP.
2.3. Geographical analysis of the optimal annual electricity
generation of the rooftop PV system
2.3.1. Optimization process using a genetic algorithm
To identify the optimal annual electricity generation of the
rooftop PV system in 78 regions in South Korea, a genetic algorithm
was applied to establish the optimization process. The following
basic information was used to conduct the energy simulation using
the software program called “RETScreen”: (i) regional geographic
and meteorological information in 78 regions in South Korea (refer
to Tables S1eS4); and (ii) regarding the on-site installation infor-
mation, the AoP set at 0 (southward) and the types of the panel
and the inverter set at the specifications shown in Table S5. On the
basis of the above information, the annual electricity generation of
the rooftop PV system was set as the optimization goal, and the SoP
affecting the optimization goal was set as the optimization
parameter. Accordingly, the optimization process was established
(refer to Table 2).
2.3.2. Mapping of the optimal annual electricity generation of the
rooftop PV system
The software program called ‘ArcMap 10.1’ from ‘ArcGIS 10.1’ can
be used to develop the map of the optimal annual electricity gen-
eration of the rooftop PV system [61,64]. Particularly, this study
used kriging, among the various spatial interpolation techniques
offered by ‘ArcGIS 10.1.’ Reflecting not only the distance from the
measured value but also the statistical correlation between the
measured values, kriging is useful in determining the overall ten-
dency of a given region. The map was presented with an interval of
15 colors so that the final decision-maker could easily use it.
Please cite this article in press as: Hong T, et al., A GIS (geographic information system)-based optimization model for estimating the electricity
generation of the rooftop PV (photovoltaic) system, Energy (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.082
3
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Sensitivity analysis depending on the regional factor
The sensitivity analysis depending on the regional factor was
conducted in terms of two aspects: (i) regional geographical in-
formation and (ii) regional meteorological information. Since these
factors were selected as independent variables, the on-site instal-
lation factor was set as the control variable. In other words, the AoP
and the SoP were set at 0 (southward) and 30 , respectively, and
the types of the panel and the inverter were set according to the
specifications shown in Table S5.
To determine the trend in the monthly electricity generation of
the rooftop PV system by region, Seoul, Daejeon, and Busan were
selected, which are in the northern, central, and southern parts of
South Korea, respectively. As shown in Fig. S1, the monthly elec-
tricity generation tends to increase from the northern part to the
southern part. In Seoul, the northern part of South Korea, the
monthly electricity generation was lowest among the three regions
in all 12 months. The monthly electricity generation of Busan, the
southern part of South Korea, was higher than that of Daejeon,
except for the electricity generation in May, June, and October. The
annual electricity generation of Seoul was predicted at 245.51
(kWh/EA) and that of Busan was estimated at 275.19 (kWh/EA). A
1.12-fold difference in the annual electricity generation was shown
depending on the changes in the regional factors. Such result was
determined to have occurred due to the complex interaction among
the regional geographic and meteorological information.
In greater detail, the difference in the latitude by region causes the
difference in the monthly meridian altitude (refer to Table S6). Such a
difference causes the variation in the incidence angle of the sun. In
other words, the difference in the latitude causes the difference in the
MADSR (refer to Tables S1eS2 and Fig. S2) and the monthly average
temperature (refer to Table S3 and Fig. S3). Ultimately, the difference
in the monthly electricity generation by region is caused by the
complex interaction among such regional factors.
To determine the correlation between the aforementioned
regional factors and the monthly electricity generation by region as
well as between the regional factors, a statistical analysis was
conducted. Table 3 shows the results of the correlation analysis of
these factors using a total of 192 cases from the database, which
covered 12 months in 2011 in 16 administrative divisions in South
Table 2
Establishment of the optimization process using a genetic algorithm.
Classification Variables Detailed description
Optimization goal Annual electricity Target: maximization
generation
Optimization SoP Adjustable parameter
parameter
Constraint Latitude Regional value
parameters (refer to Table S4)
Monthly meridian Regional value
altitude (refer to Table S6)
MADSR Regional value
(refer to Tables S1 and S2)
Monthly average Regional value
temperature (refer to Table S3)
AoP S: 0 (southward)
Type of the panel SM-200 PD0
(refer to Table S5)
Type of the inverter PV-C340 S/H
(refer to Table S5)
Number of the panels 1
Note: SoP stands for the slope of the installed panel; MADSR stands for the monthly
average daily solar radiation; and AoP stands for the azimuth of the installed panel.
4 T. Hong et al. / Energy xxx (2013) 1e10

Table 3 the SoP. Since these two factors were selected as independent
Correlation analysis on the impact factors of the rooftop PV system. variables, the regional factors were set as the control variables. In
Variables MEG Lat. MMA MADSR MAT other words, Seoul, the capital of South Korea located in the
MEG Pearson correlation 1 .049 .254** .258** .134
northern part of the country, was set as the installation region, and
Sig. (2-tailed) e .501 .000 .000 .064 the types of the panel and the inverter were set according to the
Lat. Pearson correlation .049 1 .080 .083 .093 specifications shown in Table S5.
Sig. (2-tailed) .501 e .270 .252 .202
MMA Pearson correlation .254** .080 1 .915** .757**
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .270 e .000 .000 3.2.1. Sensitivity analysis depending on the AoP
MADSR Pearson correlation .258** .083 .915** 1 .737** The sensitivity analysis was conducted depending on the AoP.
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .252 .000 e .000
Since the AoP was selected as an independent variable, the SoP was
MAT Pearson correlation .134 .093 .757** .737** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .064 .202 .000 .000 e set as the control variable. Considering the results of the study of Ju
et al. [65], the SoP was set at 30 in Seoul. The AoP was divided by
Note: MEG stands for the monthly electricity generation (kWh/EA); Lat. stands for
the latitude ( N); MMA stands for the monthly meridian altitude ( ); MADSR stands 15 from 0 (southward) to 180 (northward) (because the monthly
for the monthly average daily solar radiation (kWh/m2/day); and MAT stands for the electricity generation in the range of 0 e180 is identical to that in
monthly average temperature ( C). The shaded areas stand for the cells that have the range of 180 e360 , the AoP between 180 and 360 was
been explained in detail in the body of this study. The asterisks (**) mean that the excluded from the sensitivity analysis). Fig. 1 shows the trend in the
correlation coefficient is significant at 0.01 level (both sides).
monthly electricity generation depending on the AoP. The detailed
analysis results based on the interval of 15 azimuth are shown in
Korea. Some of the more notable results are as follows: (i) the Table S7 and are summarized as follows.
greatest impact factor of the monthly electricity generation was the First, the annual electricity generation was highest at 245.51
MADSR, which was positively correlated with it (correlation coef- (kWh/EA) when the AoP was set at 0 (southward). On the other
ficient: 0.258); (ii) the monthly average temperature was nega- hand, it was lowest at 151.49 (kWh/EA) when the AoP was set at
tively correlated with the monthly electricity generation 180 (northward). There was a 1.62-fold difference in the annual
(correlation coefficient: 0.134); and (iii) the MADSR and the electricity generation depending on the AoP. The latitude of South
monthly average temperature were positively correlated with the Korea is between 33 N and 43 N; and Jeju, its southernmost region
monthly meridian altitude (correlation coefficients: 0.915 and that is at the latitude of 33.29 N, has the highest monthly meridian
0.757, respectively). According to the above results, the MADSR and altitude, which is 82.21 at noon of the summer solstice (refer to
the monthly average temperature were inversely correlated with Table S6). In other words, the path of the sun lies entirely in the
the monthly electricity generation (refer to the results (i) and (ii)), southern sky throughout the year in South Korea. Accordingly,
however, were proportional correlated with the monthly meridian under the same condition, the PV system could acquire the most
altitude (refer to the result (iii)). In summary, each regional factor MADSR when the AoP is 0 (southward), and therefore, it has the
has a very complex correlation with the monthly electricity highest annual electricity generation.
generation. Second, the deviation in the monthly electricity generation in
Thus, the regional factors such as latitude, monthly meridian the summer season (especially from June to August) depending on
altitude, MADSR, and monthly average temperature should be the AoP was shown to be smaller than that in the winter season.
considered comprehensively. By considering these regional factors, This result is related to the monthly meridian altitude, which in
the optimal location that could maximize the ROI could be Seoul at noon of the summer solstice is 76.20 and at noon of the
determined. winter solstice, 29.20 (refer to Table S6). In other words, while the
MADSR in summer is sufficient, the MADSR in winter is not.
3.2. Sensitivity analysis depending on the on-site installation factor Accordingly, the monthly electricity generation in winter is very
sensitive to the AoP. Therefore, it is determined that the ROI of the
The sensitivity analysis depending on the on-site installation rooftop PV system could be maximized by considering the AoP
factors was conducted in terms of two aspects: (i) the AoP and (ii) based on a given region’s monthly meridian altitude.

Fig. 1. Monthly electricity generation of the rooftop PV system depending on the AoP (in Seoul as the northern part).

Please cite this article in press as: Hong T, et al., A GIS (geographic information system)-based optimization model for estimating the electricity
generation of the rooftop PV (photovoltaic) system, Energy (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.082
 T. Hong et al. / Energy xxx (2013) 1e10
According to the above results, it is considered that the annual
electricity generation would be highest when the AoP is
0 (southward) regardless of the region. To verify this assumption, a
sensitivity analysis was conducted based on the identical process,
targeting Busan, the second largest city in South Korea and located
in the southern part. The result was very similar to that in Seoul
(refer to Fig. S4 and Table S8), which shows that the trend of the
monthly electricity generation of the rooftop PV system based on
the AoP will appear similarly in most regions in South Korea.
Fig. 2 shows the trends in the annual electricity generation
depending on the AoP in Seoul (northern part) and Busan (southern
part), simultaneously. As in the preceding analysis results, it was
determined that the trend of the annual electricity generation
depending on the AoP in the two regions were very similar.
Moreover, the annual electricity generation tends to increase from
the northern to the southern part.
3.2.2. Sensitivity analysis depending on the SoP
The sensitivity analysis was conducted depending on the SoP.
Since the SoP was selected as an independent variable, the AoP was
set as the control variable. As shown in Section 3.2.1, the AoP was
set at 0 (southward), at which the electricity generation efficiency
of the rooftop PV system was highest. Table 4 shows the trend of
monthly electricity generation depending on the SoP. The SoP was
divided by 5 from 0 to 90 . Between 30 and 40 , however, where
it is deemed that a detailed analysis would be required, the SoP was
divided further by 1. The key findings are as outlined below.
First, the annual electricity generation was highest at 246.13
(kWh/EA) when the SoP was set at 35 . On the other hand, it was
lowest at 179.87 (kWh/EA) when the SoP was set at 90 . There was
a 1.37-fold difference in the annual electricity generation depend-
ing on the change in the SoP. Second, the monthly electricity gen-
eration differed depending on the SoP. That is, in summer, when the
incidence angle of the sun rises, the SoP was smaller. Such a result is
Fig. 2. Annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV system depending on the AoP in
Seoul and Busan (by region).
Please cite this article in press as: Hong T, et al., A GIS (geographic information system)-based optimization model for estimating the electricity
generation of the rooftop PV (photovoltaic) system, Energy (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.082
5
related to the monthly meridian altitude; and the monthly elec-
tricity generation is generally highest when the incidence angle of
the sun is perpendicular to the panel. Therefore, it was determined
that the ROI of the rooftop PV system would be maximized by
considering the SoP based on the monthly meridian altitude of a
given region.
According to the above results, it is considered that such a trend
in the monthly electricity generation depending on the SoP would
be identical in most of the regions. To verify this, a sensitivity
analysis was conducted based on the identical process, targeting
Daejeon (the central part) and Busan (the southern part). As shown
in Table 5, the optimal SoP decreased from the northern part to the
southern part. That is, the annual electricity generation is at its
maximum (246.27 kWh/EA) in Seoul (the northern part) when the
SoP was set at 35.327. The annual electricity generation is at its
maximum (269.61 kWh/EA) in Daejeon (the central part) when the
SoP was set as 34.779 while the annual electricity generation is at
its maximum (275.33 kWh/EA) in Busan (the southern part) when
the Sop was set as 33.029 .
3.2.3. Sensitivity analysis depending on both the AoP and the SoP
The optimal SoP might change depending on the AoP. A sensi-
tivity analysis on the optimal SoP in Seoul was conducted on the
condition that the AoP was divided by 15 from 0 to 90 .
From the perspective that annual electricity generation was
maximized, Table 6 shows the optimal SoP depending on the AoP. As
the AoP increases from 0 (southward) to 90 (eastward), the SoP
decreases from 35.327 to 0 . When the AoP was 0 (southward) and
the SoP was 35.327, the annual electricity generation was highest at
246.27 (kWh/EA). On the other hand, when the AoP was 90
(eastward) and the SoP was 0 , the annual electricity generation was
lowest at 217.39 (kWh/EA). There was a 1.13-fold difference in the
annual electricity generation depending on both the AoP and SoP.
Such a result was due to the absolute time in which the rooftop PV
system can receive the MADSR. In other words, as the AoP increases
from 0 (southward) to 90 (eastward), the absolute time in which
the rooftop PV system can receive the MADSR decreases, subse-
quently reducing the annual electricity generation. Therefore, in
introducing the rooftop PV system, the AoP and SoP should be
simultaneously considered. For example, if the shape of the rooftop
area is not quadrangular or if the orientation of the given building is
not 0 (southward), the AoP should be adjusted. In this case, it is
determined that the ROI of the rooftop PV system would be maxi-
mized by considering both the AoP and the SoP.
3.3. Geographical analysis of the optimal annual electricity
generation of the rooftop PV system
According to the optimization process mentioned in Section
2.3.1, the optimal annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV
system in the 78 regions in South Korea was identified (refer to
Table S9). Fig. 3 shows the map of the optimal annual electricity
generation of the rooftop PV system by region in South Korea. Fig. 4
shows the map of the corresponding optimal SoP by region in South
Korea.
The regions in red (in web version) are the 24 regions with the
measured MADSR data, while the regions in pink are the 54 regions
where the MADSR data was not measured. In the 54 regions, the
MADSR estimated by previous studies (Koo et al. [61] and Hong
et al. [62]) were used. The overall trend of optimal annual electricity
generation, as shown in Fig. 3, has a broad spectrum of 250e270
(kWh/EA). With Seoul, Daejeon, and Busan as the key axes, the
optimal annual electricity generation increased from the north-
western part to the southeastern part. Under the identical condi-
tion, the ROI could be maximized if the rooftop PV system is
6 T. Hong et al. / Energy xxx (2013) 1e10

Table 4
Monthly electricity generation of the rooftop PV system depending on the SoP (in Seoul as the northern part).

SoP ( ) AEG (kWh/EA) Monthly electricity generation (kWh/EA)

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

0 217.41 15.95 15.17 24.73 24.00 24.46 22.39 15.61 17.14 20.45 17.23 9.30 10.99
5 224.86 17.74 16.14 25.74 24.39 24.54 22.37 15.63 17.26 21.00 18.13 9.85 12.07
10 231.23 19.43 17.02 26.62 24.67 24.50 22.25 15.59 17.31 21.45 18.93 10.36 13.09
15 236.49 21.04 17.81 27.36 24.83 24.36 22.04 15.47 17.30 21.80 19.63 10.81 14.03
20 240.62 22.54 18.50 27.95 24.87 24.14 21.73 15.30 17.22 22.03 20.23 11.21 14.90
25 243.65 23.93 19.08 28.39 24.79 23.82 21.37 15.08 17.06 22.16 20.72 11.55 15.68
30 245.49 25.20 19.57 28.68 24.60 23.40 20.91 14.80 16.84 22.18 21.11 11.84 16.38
31 245.71 25.43 19.65 28.72 24.54 23.30 20.81 14.73 16.78 22.18 21.17 11.89 16.50
32 245.89 25.67 19.73 28.76 24.49 23.20 20.71 14.67 16.73 22.16 21.23 11.94 16.63
33 246.02 25.90 19.80 28.78 24.42 23.09 20.60 14.60 16.67 22.15 21.28 11.98 16.75
34 246.10 26.12 19.87 28.81 24.36 22.98 20.48 14.53 16.61 22.12 21.33 12.02 16.87
35 246.13 26.34 19.94 28.82 24.29 22.87 20.37 14.46 16.54 22.10 21.38 12.06 16.98
36 246.12 26.55 20.00 28.83 24.21 22.75 20.25 14.38 16.47 22.07 21.42 12.10 17.09
37 246.06 26.76 20.06 28.83 24.13 22.63 20.13 14.30 16.40 22.03 21.46 12.14 17.20
38 245.95 26.96 20.11 28.83 24.04 22.50 20.00 14.22 16.33 21.99 21.49 12.17 17.30
39 245.79 27.16 20.16 28.82 23.95 22.37 19.87 14.14 16.26 21.95 21.52 12.20 17.40
40 245.59 27.35 20.20 28.81 23.86 22.24 19.74 14.06 16.18 21.90 21.54 12.23 17.49
45 243.84 28.22 20.35 28.64 23.32 21.51 19.03 13.60 15.75 21.60 21.59 12.33 17.90
50 240.92 28.95 20.39 28.33 22.67 20.69 18.24 13.10 15.27 21.20 21.52 12.36 18.21
55 236.84 29.53 20.32 27.86 21.91 19.78 17.39 12.54 14.72 20.69 21.35 12.34 18.42
60 231.71 29.95 20.14 27.24 21.05 18.81 16.51 11.96 14.12 20.08 21.06 12.25 18.53
65 225.51 30.23 19.84 26.49 20.10 17.80 15.57 11.35 13.46 19.37 20.66 12.10 18.53
70 218.25 30.35 19.44 25.59 19.06 16.72 14.58 10.69 12.78 18.57 20.15 11.89 18.43
75 209.96 30.31 18.93 24.55 17.92 15.57 13.54 10.01 12.05 17.69 19.54 11.62 18.23
80 200.73 30.12 18.31 23.39 16.75 14.37 12.46 9.29 11.28 16.72 18.82 11.29 17.92
85 190.68 29.77 17.60 22.10 15.51 13.12 11.43 8.58 10.48 15.67 18.01 10.90 17.52
90 179.87 29.26 16.78 20.70 14.20 11.91 10.36 7.87 9.65 14.55 17.10 10.46 17.01

Note: SoP stands for the slope of the installed panel; AEG stands for the annual electricity generation per unit. The shaded areas stand for the cells that have been explained in
detail in the body of this study.

installed in the southeastern part. The overall trend of the optimal
SoP, as shown in Fig. 4, has a broad spectrum of 23.3 e38.2 . It was
shown that the optimal SoP decreased from the northern part to the
southern part. As explained in Section 3.2.2, it was determined that
the meridian altitude by region was considered in such a result.
Meanwhile, without energy simulation, the optimal annual
electricity generation of the rooftop PV system in regions other
than the 78 regions shown in Table S9 can be easily determined
using Fig. 3. If the power capacity of the rooftop PV system will
improve, the result can be converted by considering that the power
capacity of the rooftop PV system used in this study was 200 W
(refer to Table S5). For example, if the power capacity of the rooftop
PV system improves to 300 W, the ratio of 1.5 (300 W: 200 W) can
be applied to the annual electricity generation by region, as shown
in Fig. 3. It can easily determine the annual electricity generation of
a given region where the rooftop PV system will be installed. In
addition, the corresponding optimal SoP can be easily determined
using Fig. 4. Such an analysis can be used in a preliminary feasibility
study for the implementation of the rooftop PV system.
4. Conclusions
This study aimed to conduct a sensitivity analysis on how the
impact factors of the rooftop PV system affect its electricity
generation. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, this
study aimed to ultimately develop a GIS-based optimization model
for estimating the electricity generation of the rooftop PV system.
The results of this study are summarized as follows.
 First, it was found that the higher the MADSR is, the higher the
annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV system becomes.
In other words, the southern part with a low latitude showed a
higher MADSR, and thus a higher annual electricity generation
by the rooftop PV system under the identical condition. There
was a 1.12-fold difference in the annual electricity generation
depending on the regional factor.
 Second, the annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV
system changes depending on the AoP. For example, in Seoul
(the northern part), there was a 1.62-fold difference in the
annual electricity generation depending on the AoP. When the
AoP was 0 (southward), it can receive the MADSR for the
longest time under the identical condition, and therefore, the
annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV system was
highest. Moreover, the region with a higher monthly meridian
altitude (i.e., the southern part) showed a wider-ranging change
in the annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV system
depending on the AoP. In other words, it was shown to be more
sensitive.

Table 5
The optimal SoP and annual electricity generation by region.

Region SoP ( ) AEG (kWh/EA) Monthly electricity generation (kWh/EA)

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Seoul 35.327 246.27 26.44 19.96 28.84 24.25 22.82 20.34 14.42 16.50 22.10 21.44 12.07 17.09
Daejeon 34.779 269.61 27.00 20.87 30.79 26.02 23.89 22.95 17.54 18.13 22.47 23.92 16.48 19.56
Busan 33.029 275.33 27.41 20.00 30.98 27.57 22.98 20.87 23.34 19.39 22.37 22.86 15.80 21.77

Note: SoP stands for the slope of the installed panel; AEG stands for the annual electricity generation per unit panel. The optimization process can be found in Section 2.3.1. The
shaded areas stand for the cells that have been explained in detail in the body of this study.

Please cite this article in press as: Hong T, et al., A GIS (geographic information system)-based optimization model for estimating the electricity
generation of the rooftop PV (photovoltaic) system, Energy (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.082
 T. Hong et al. / Energy xxx (2013) 1e10 7

Table 6
The optimal SoP and annual electricity generation depending on the AoP (in Seoul as the northern part).

AoP ( ) SoP ( ) AEG (kWh/EA) Monthly electricity generation (kWh/EA)

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

0 35.327 246.27 26.44 19.96 28.84 24.25 22.82 20.34 14.42 16.50 22.10 21.44 12.07 17.09
15 34.364 244.48 25.82 19.66 28.59 24.21 22.91 20.46 14.48 16.52 22.00 21.20 11.90 16.73
30 32.092 240.06 24.20 18.87 28.03 24.17 23.20 20.78 14.65 16.60 21.75 20.60 11.44 15.77
45 28.598 233.27 22.00 17.77 27.09 24.01 23.48 21.14 14.84 16.67 21.32 19.67 10.81 14.48
60 21.981 225.64 19.35 16.54 25.98 23.89 23.84 21.62 15.13 16.81 20.86 18.60 10.09 12.94
75 10.650 219.18 16.81 15.44 25.03 23.87 24.27 22.18 15.47 17.02 20.50 17.60 9.47 11.51
90 0.000 217.39 15.95 15.16 24.73 23.98 24.45 22.40 15.60 17.12 20.45 17.26 9.28 11.01

Note: AoP stands for the azimuth of the installed panel; SoP stands for the slope of the installed panel; and AEG stands for the annual electricity generation per unit panel. The
optimization process can be found in Section 2.3.1. The shaded areas stand for the cells that have been explained in detail in the body of this study.

 Third, the annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV system
changes depending on the SoP. For example, in Seoul (the
northern part), there was a 1.37-fold difference in the annual
electricity generation depending on the SoP. The region with a
higher monthly meridian altitude (i.e., the southern part)
showed a lower SoP, which can maximize the annual electricity
generation of the rooftop PV system.
 Fourth, even in the same region, the optimal SoP, which can
maximize the annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV
system, was found to change depending on the AoP. For

Fig. 3. Map of the optimal annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV system by region in South Korea.

Please cite this article in press as: Hong T, et al., A GIS (geographic information system)-based optimization model for estimating the electricity
generation of the rooftop PV (photovoltaic) system, Energy (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.082
8 T. Hong et al. / Energy xxx (2013) 1e10

Fig. 4. Map of the optimal SoP by region in South Korea.

example, in Seoul (the northern part), there was a 1.13-fold
difference in the annual electricity generation depending on
both the AoP and the SoP. Such a result was found to be related
to the absolute time in which the rooftop PV system can receive
the MADSR.
 Fifth, it was shown that using the map of the optimal annual
electricity generation of the rooftop PV system by region in
South Korea, the final decision-maker could easily and accu-
rately estimate the optimal annual electricity generation in a
preliminary feasibility study without conducting an energy
simulation. If the power capacity of the rooftop PV system im-
proves, the result can be converted by considering that the po-
wer capacity of the rooftop PV system that was used in this
study was 200 W.
In conclusion, the results of this study showed that the southern
part of South Korea (which has a lower latitude) has a higher
monthly meridian altitude, which results in a higher MADSR and
ultimately, higher annual electricity generation of the rooftop PV
systemdwhich translates to a superior ROI in the introduction of
the rooftop PV system.
Meanwhile, this study has the following limitations: (i) the
electricity price is an extremely important determinant in the
preliminary feasibility study on the rooftop PV system. It should be
considered to develop an optimization model that is capable of
maximizing the ROI in the introduction of the rooftop PV system in
the future research. The electricity price is the same everywhere in
South Korea. Regardless of the region, the electricity price is
depending on the customer type (residential, industrial, and com-
mercial); and (ii) the mandatory amount of solar energy supply
should be considered in terms of the political feasibility. According
to the ‘Mandatory Renewable Energy Installation Program [66]’ in
South Korea, the public building should supply over 10% of energy
consumptions in the operation and maintenance phase by intro-
ducing an NRE system. This mandatory amount can be realistically
feasible. It should be considered to conduct the analysis of the

Please cite this article in press as: Hong T, et al., A GIS (geographic information system)-based optimization model for estimating the electricity
generation of the rooftop PV (photovoltaic) system, Energy (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.082
 T. Hong et al. / Energy xxx (2013) 1e10
potential of the rooftop PV system to achieve the net-zero energy
solar building in the future research.
To address these limitations, the research teams have currently
conducted the follow-up studies: (i) to develop an economic and
environmental optimization model for determining the optimal
solution for the rooftop PV system [67]; and (ii) to develop a
framework for the analysis of the potential of the rooftop PV system
to achieve the net-zero energy solar building, which aims to help
policymakers or facility managers to conduct an energy supply and
demand analysis as well as to propose an energy supply and de-
mand strategy [68].
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Research Foundation
of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIP;
Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning) (No. NRF-
2012R1A2A1A01004376 & No. 2011-0018360).
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data related to this article can be found at http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.082.
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generation of the rooftop PV (photovoltaic) system, Energy (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.082