DEMOGRAPHY

SCRIPT
ABSTRACT (EDEN)
Demography is the study of human population. Demographers try to comprehend
populace elements through fundamental statistic form: birth, relocation and aging
including death. Demography is crucial and beneficial in understanding social and
economic problems. It confronts issues in a large picture so that researchers may
deeply comprehend the reason why these happens and to be able to come up with
an objective solution.
For this study, the researchers gathered data from 30 female and 30 male, a total
of 60 respondents born from 1950 to 1970 who resided at National Capital Region
(NCR). The researchers arranged and tallied the data, calculated the number of
individuals who survived from each age class, and lastly calculated the probability
of survival given formula. According to the data collected, there are minimal deaths
from 0-45 years of age among the respondents. On the other hand, the probability
of survival on ages 46-50 is decreased and continued to decline until zero
probability on ages 66-70.
In light of this, heart attack is the leading cause of death followed by breast cancer.
Contributing factors to death are genetic make-up and behavior and lifestyle. The
researchers concluded that the age varies directly to mortality rate and inversely
to the probability of survival, showing a Type I survivorship curve.

INTRO(LOUISE)
For over a few decades, the unprecedented increase of human population growth
poses a wide concern for scientists and researchers. [1]According to Cohen (1995),
the maximum number of people Earth can support is only about 13.4 billion and
estimates have continued to vary drastically since then. [2]As of July 2019, the
population of the Earth is at about 7.7 billion with the Philippines comprising 100
million of it (World Bank, 2019).
There are many ecological indicators which point to the susceptibility of the world's
population to surpass the capacity of the Earth. 3]According to Haeckel (1866),
human population growth is interdependent since ecology is concerned with the
interactions of living organisms and their environment.
Population ecology deals with the study of change in population and the factors
that contribute to its structure and dynamics. [One important model for population
ecologists is the rapid growth of human population. To determine and monitor
human population growth, demography must be done. [6]Derived from the
International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP), demography is
defined as "the statistical study of human populations involving structure, factors
behind their dynamics and the consequences of population change. By tracking
populations over time, ecologists can see how populations have changed and may
be able to predict how they're likely to change in the future.
8]The demography of a population is a key factor to identify whether the
population of a specific species is growing, shrinking or remain constant (Khan,
2018). In demography, mathematical tools such as life tables and survivorship
curves are used to investigate how populations respond to changes brought by the
factors in their biotic and abiotic environments. [9]As defined in the Handbook of
Biological Control (1999), life tables are “organized presentations of numbers of
individuals surviving to fixed points in the life cycle”. It tells about the probability
of a person dying at a certain age or living up to a definite time. On the other hand,
according to the Dictionary of Ecology (1998), survivorship curves are graphical
representations of the survival of individuals in a population from birth until a
definite age interval.
This laboratory report is about a demographic study on the death of Filipinos born
between the years 1950 and 1970 who resided in the National Capital Region. The
objectives of the study include collecting age data to determine the survivorship of
the population, organizing collected data in a life expectancy table, formulating a
survivorship curve, comparing and contrasting the differences in the survivorship
curves for at least two different groups and making a prediction on future changes
in demography.



MATERIALS AND METHODS (JECHELLE AND TOSHIE)
For the participants of the study, this demographic study consists of information
about 60 deceased people born from 1950 to 1970. The data is divided into two:
30 Filipino women and 30 Filipino men.
Any relative, friend, neighbor or acquaintance of a deceased person that qualifies
to the criteria needed can also participate as long as the consent form was
adequately filled up.
For the research locale, the group collected a wide range of data from people who
resided in different cities of National Capital Region in the Philippines.
In order to obtain the needed data, the group provided a survey using Google
Forms as its research instrumentation. The forms were disseminated to different
social media platforms.
In this form, various information was asked to be filled out such as the year of birth,
year of death, age of death, cause of death and the contributing factors to death
such as infectious disease, family history, environment, quality of healthcare,
standard of living.
The researchers also opted to referral method to relatives and friends in order to
accumulate data more efficiently.
This study would qualify as a survey research since it is a method of sociological
investigation that uses question based or statistical surveys to collect information
about how people think and act.
Since the main goal of this study is to find out the demographics in NCR, the group
used statistical tools in order to acquire a clear result and to be able to make an
appropriate survivorship table and curve.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS (JEK)
*FIGURE1*
As seen from Figure 1, the majority of the subjects came from Manila with 16 (25%)
subjects and followed by Quezon City with 13 (20.3%) subjects. According to
Population Commission NCR (POPCOM NCR), these cities are the most populated
out of the 17 cities in NCR, resulting to a higher rate of subjects from both areas.
These are all followed by San Juan with 9 (13.1%) subjects and Marikina with 7
(10.9%) subjects. The remaining cities in NCR accumulated < 4 (5.1%) subjects.

*FIG 2* As seen from Figure 2, the leading cause of death for the population is
cardiac arrest comprising 25% of the whole sample. This is followed by breast
cancer with 6 (9.4%) deaths, then meningitis, stroke and ovarian cancer both with
4 (6.1%) deaths. The rest of the other factors either have 2 (3.1%) deaths or 1 (1.6%)
death. These include suicide and other chronic illnesses and disease.

*FIG 3* The top three (3) contributing factors to death according Figure 3 are family
history with 27 (42.2%) answers, behavior and lifestyle with 19 (29.7%) answers,
and infectious disease with 17 (26.6%) answers. These are then preceded by quality
of nutrition and diet with 16 (25%) subjects, environmental factors with 15 (23.4%)
answers and standard of living with 14 (21.9%) The rest of the factors have 9
(14.1%) > answers. Out of the 60 respondents, the majority of them had suffered
death due to genetics, poor and unhealthy behavior and lifestyle and virulence of
disease.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION (LOUISE)
* TABLE 2.1* As seen from the results of Table 2.1, there were minimal deaths from
0-55 years of age among men who were born in the years 1950-1970 and resided
in NCR. Before hitting a zero probability, the survival of men is 13.33%.

* TABLE 2.2* Consequently, the results of Table 2.2 show that there were no deaths
from 0-40 years of age among women who were born in the years 1950-1970 and
resided in NCR. It is essential to point out that women had a 100% probability of
survival for 9 consecutive age intervals. The survival of women before reaching zero
probability is 23.33%.

*INSERT FIGURE 4*
From the short review above, key findings emerge: women had a higher rate of
survival than men from 1950-1970 in the National Capital Region. This analysis is
supported by evidence from the study of Case and Paxson (2005). According to
them, men’s risky and unhealthy behaviors are a major reason they die younger.
Their higher rates of cigarette smoking, heavy drinking, gun use, employment in
hazardous occupations, and risk taking in recreation and driving are responsible for
males’ higher death rate due to lung cancer, accidents, suicide, and homicide. The
survivorship curve of women is more convex than the curve of men which indicates
higher survivorship rate between 0-70 years of age.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION (KEIFH)
* TABLE 2.3* As seen from the results of Table 2.3, there were minimal deaths from
0-45 years of age among men and women who were born in the years 1950-1970
and resided in NCR. This may root from the fact that the susceptibility of young
people to have disease is less than that of geriatric people since the immune system
is still developing and no alteration of body functions involved. (ANA, 2000) The
probability of survival of the population started its decrease during the 46-50 age
interval until it reached zero probability in 66-70 age interval. This is an important
finding in the understanding of the disparity between the surviving capacity of the
young and old generation. According to World Health Organization (WHO), ageing
results from the impact of the accumulation of a wide variety of molecular and
cellular damage over time. This leads to a gradual decrease in physical and mental
capacity, a growing risk of disease, and ultimately, death.

*INSERT FIGURE 5*
The survivorship curve in Figure 5 can be classified as Type I since there is a high
probability of survival through early and middle life (0-45 years) but showed a rapid
decrease in number of individuals surviving into late life (46-70 years).


DATA ANALYSIS (RESHMA)
1. What are the different types of survivorship curves? Describe each.
TYPE I SURVIVORSHIP CURVE
• shows that individuals have a high probability of surviving through early
and middle life
• there is a rapid decrease in number of individuals surviving into late life
• most of the individuals makes it to adulthood
• the proportion surviving into old age is greatly decreased
• plotted as a convex curve on a graph.
TYPE II SURVIVORSHIP CURVE
• roughly constant mortality rate for the species through their entire life
• chances of individuals dying are independent from their age
• plotted as a diagonal line going downward on a graph
TYPE III SURVIVORSHIP CURVE
• depicts that only few individuals will live till adulthood and die as they get
older
• the greatest mortality for these individuals is experienced in their early
life
• drawn as a concave curve on a graph
2. How would the survivorship curves of a developing country compare to those of
a developed country?
Developed countries
• have lesser number of infant mortality rate than those of other
developing countries
• have the means of securing sustainable and healthy standard of living
• have the access to innovative and advanced technologies that make life
easier
Developing countries
• tend to be overpopulated causing higher mortality rate
• prone to living conditions susceptible to mortality
 • have limited access to medical care and welfare
• struggle with poor sanitation and increased prevalence of diseases
Developed countries have a type l survivorship curve since most individuals die as
they get older while developing or poor countries may either be included in the
type III survivorship curve.

DATA ANALYSIS (LOUISE)
3. How could survivorship curves be used to make judgements about
environmental and health conditions in the country?
A survivorship curve could be used to make judgments through the representation
of the mortality of a given population.
The lives of the residents of a country are mirrored upon its health and
environmental conditions.
By showing the probability of survival of a given population exposed to certain
external factors, we will be able to see the extent of its effects to the people.
We will be able to identify and control factors that reduce mortality rate of a
country or increase survival rate.
In that way, it will be easier to make decisions that would secure the safety and
betterment of all individuals.
For example, let us say that a survivorship curve of children from ages 9-13 who
went through school-based Dengvaxia vaccination program from years 2010-2019
was made. The survivorship curve is classified as Type I survivorship curve as it
shows that the mortality rate of children vaccinated with Dengvaxia increased over
time. With this, DOH can mandate to temporarily suspend the said vaccine as it
poses higher risks of death to people without prior dengue infection.

DATA ANALYSIS (EDEN)
4. A. Name an organism (other than humans) that could be considered as
possessing a Type 1 survivorship curve.
One hundred may be old for humans but it is nothing for the bowhead whale. In
fact, he’s only middle-aged at that point in his astoundingly long life. This species
of whale can live for over 200 years. According to BBC Nature, a bowhead can
survive for over two centuries because he has a very low body temperature — and
the lower an animal's body temperature, the longer it can live. With this
characteristic, it can surpass extreme living conditions resulting to a low death rate
and high survivorship rate.

4. B. Which sort of species would most likely have a Type 1 Survivorship curve?
Why?
Type I individuals survive well early in life and generally live many years. At an
advanced age, the death rate increases dramatically. Species that would most likely
possess this type of curve are large mammals. This is because organisms exhibiting
a type I survivorship typically produce few offspring and provide good care to the
offspring increasing the likelihood of their survival.
To be specific, the species of Loxodonta Africana or African elephants are examples
of these.

• live around 70 years, similar to human life expectancy

• have many aspects in common with humans
• brain capacity, social behavior and developmental stages
• start giving birth at around 14 years of age
• produce 95% of their offspring by the time they reach 50,
• can still live for as long as 16 additional years.
As they age, they reproduce at a slower rate but overall, their long survival allows
them to produce more young than shorter lived species.
5. Identify the environmental and health conditions that influenced the
survivorship curve of each gender and determine its implications.
Based on results of the study, the conditions that largely influence the survivorship
curve of females are family history or genetics, quality of nutrition and diet, and
standard of living. These would imply that women suffer from illnesses less likely
to kill them. Examples of chronic non-fatal illnesses more common in women
include migraines, arthritis and asthma. These conditions may lead to poorer
health, but don't increase a woman's risk of premature or early death.

Based on the results of the study, the conditions that largely influence the
survivorship curve of males are behavior and lifestyle, infectious disease, and
environmental conditions such as climate, pollution and temperature. These would
imply that men’s risky unhealthy behaviors are a major reason they die younger.
Their higher rates of cigarette smoking, heavy drinking, gun use, employment in
hazardous occupations, and risk taking in recreation and driving are responsible for
males’ higher death rate due to lung cancer, accidents, suicide, and homicide. Risky
male behavior may be fueled by biology and culture. Research suggests that
testosterone contributes to males’ greater physical activity and aggressiveness; this
“domino effect” leads to their higher death rate.

CONCLUSIONS
1. The leading cause of death for Filipino men and women in the said population is
cardiac arrest or heart attack. (JEK)
2. Out of the 60 respondents, the majority of them had suffered death due to
external factors such as genetics, poor and unhealthy behavior and lifestyle and
virulence of disease. (JEK)
3. Women had a higher rate of survival with 23.33% than men with 13.33% from
1950-1970 in the National Capital Region. (JECHELLE)
4. The age of an individual varies directly to mortality rate and inversely
proportional to the probability of survival. (JECHELLE)
5. The older the age, the higher the mortality rate; the younger the age, the lower
the mortality rate. (KEIFH)
6. The older the age, the lower the chances of survival; the younger the age, the
higher the chance of survival. (KEIFH)
7. Based on the results of the study, the survivorship of men and women classify as
a Type I survivorship curve. (TOSHIE)
8. Both tend to live long lives with low death rate and high survivorship rate toward
the end of their life expectancies until it reaches a dramatic increase in the death
rate. (TOSHIE)
9. Given the data presented, the study can be utilized by public health authorities
in mandating programs and decisions regarding health and wellness of the people.
(RESHMA)
10. The study can provide a valuable measure for assessing and evaluating the
health status in the National Capital Region from years 1950-1970. (RESHMA)

RECOMMENDATIONS (LOUISE)
1. Since the leading cause of death for the said population was cardiac arrest,
different levels of health facilities within the country should establish a National
Cardiac Arrest Registry. Collaborating with one another, they’ll expand and
coordinate cardiac arrest data collection through a publicly reported and available
national cardiac arrest registry.
2. There should be an increased federal state accountability for current health
system performance in the country and increased promotion actions to decrease
the mortality rate caused by different types of diseases.
3. Future researchers can focus on the extent of the effect of external factors
(environmental and health conditions) to a population’s demographical structure.
4.Future researchers can include the interplay of gender in a population’s
probability of survival in a given time.
5. Future researchers can improve the study by widening the research locale and
scope. The range of criteria for the research respondents must also be increased.
6. Future researchers can perform the study by extending the research period into
months instead of weeks.