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  U.S. Wheat Associates  
 

U.S. Wheat Associates

 

Weekly Price Report (page 1)

 
Weekly Price Report (page 1)  

November 8, 2019

Export

Region

Percent Protein

NOV (Z19)

(nearbys)

week change

NOV (Z19)

FOB

Basis

DEC (Z19)

FOB

Basis

JAN (H20)

FOB

Basis

FEB (H20)

FOB

Basis

MAR (H20)

FOB

Basis

APR (K20)

FOB

Basis

MAY (K20)

FOB

Basis

Year Ago

(nearbys)

12% (Dry) Moisture Basis

FOB $/bu

$/bu

$/MT

$/MT

¢/bu

$/MT

¢/bu

$/MT

¢/bu

$/MT

¢/bu

$/MT

¢/bu

$/MT

¢/bu

$/MT

¢/bu

$/MT

Great

NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3) NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9) NS/DNS 14.5 (16.5)

M

6.59

0.02

1

242

140

244

145

closed

N/A

closed

N/A

closed

N/A

254

145

254

145

227

Lakes

M

6.69

0.02

1

246

150

247

155

closed

N/A

closed

N/A

closed

N/A

257

155

257

155

231

M

6.74

0.02

1

247

155

249

160

closed

N/A

closed

N/A

closed

N/A

259

160

259

160

238

 

NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3) NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9) NS/DNS 14.5 (16.5)

M

7.29

-0.13

-5

268

210

268

210

272

205

272

205

272

205

276

205

276

205

268

M

7.19

-0.13

-5

264

200

264

200

268

195

268

195

268

195

272

195

272

195

271

M

7.29

-0.13

-5

268

210

268

210

272

205

272

205

272

205

276

205

276

205

275

Gulf of

HRW Ord HRW 11.0 (12.5) HRW 11.5 (13.1) HRW 12.0 (13.6) HRW 12.5 (14.2)

K

5.67

0.00

0

208

145

208

145

210

140

210

140

210

140

212

140

212

140

231

Mexico

K

5.77

0.00

0

212

155

212

155

213

150

213

150

213

150

216

150

216

150

229

K

5.97

0.00

0

219

175

219

175

221

170

221

170

221

170

223

170

223

170

231

K

6.17

0.00

0

227

195

227

195

228

190

228

190

228

190

231

190

231

190

232

K

6.37

0.01

0

234

215

234

215

235

210

235

210

235

210

238

210

238

210

236

SRW

C

6.20

-0.06

-2

228

110

228

110

229

110

231

115

231

115

235

120

235

120

214

 

NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3) NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9) NS/DNS 14.5 (16.5)

M

7.39

-0.13

-5

271

220

271

220

276

215

277

220

277

220

281

220

281

220

255

M

7.44

-0.13

-5

273

225

273

225

277

220

279

225

279

225

283

225

283

225

257

M

7.69

-0.13

-5

282

250

282

250

287

245

288

250

288

250

292

250

292

250

258

HRW Ord HRW 11.5 (13.1) HRW 12.0 (13.6) HRW 13.0 (14.8)

K

6.22

0.00

0

228

200

227

195

228

190

230

195

230

195

233

195

233

195

243

Pacific

K

6.27

0.00

0

230

205

228

200

230

195

232

200

232

200

235

200

235

200

242

N. West

K

6.47

0.00

0

238

225

236

220

237

215

239

220

239

220

242

220

242

220

243

K

6.97

0.00

0

256

275

254

270

256

265

257

270

257

270

260

270

260

270

245

SW 9.5 (10.8) Min SW 10.5 (11.9) Max SW 9.5 (10.8) Max WW with 10% Club WW with 20% Club

$

6.38

0.00

0

234

6.38

234

6.38

234

6.38

236

6.43

238

6.48

238

6.48

238

6.48

N/A

$

6.35

0.00

0

233

6.35

233

6.35

233

6.35

235

6.40

237

6.45

237

6.45

237

6.45

237

$

6.45

0.00

0

237

6.45

237

6.45

237

6.45

239

6.50

241

6.55

241

6.55

241

6.55

239

$

6.70

0.00

0

246

6.70

246

6.70

246

6.70

248

6.75

250

6.80

250

6.80

250

6.80

238

$

6.95

0.00

0

255

6.95

255

6.95

255

6.95

257

7.00

259

7.05

259

7.05

259

7.05

239

Durum: a range of prices are available depending upon various quality attributes and logistics. Northern Durum offers from the Lakes range from $7.48 to $7.89/bu ($275 to $290/MT), and offers from Gulf ports range from $8.43 to $8.84/bu ($310 to $325/MT). For Desert Durum offers, contact your supplier.

 

Hard white: a range of prices are available depending upon various quality attributes and logistics.

 

Futures Settlements

as of

 

Grey positions not quoted on specific exchange

 

November 8, 2019

 

week

week

week

week

week

week

week

week

 

DEC (Z19)

DEC (Z19)

change

JAN (F20)

change

MAR (H20)

change

MAY (K20) change

JUL (N20)

change

AUG (Q20)

change

SEP (U20)

change

DEC (Z20)

change

$/MT

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

$/bu

Chicago BOT SRW Kansas City BOT HRW Minneapolis MGE NS/DNS Chicago BOT Corn Chicago BOT Soybeans

 

187.48

5.1025

(0.0575)

 

5.1425

(0.0750)

5.1975

(0.0675)

5.2400

(0.0700)

 

5.3150

(0.0625)

5.4350

(0.0500)

154.87

4.2150

(0.0450)

4.3050

(0.0825)

4.3825

(0.0950)

4.4550

(0.1075)

4.5400

(0.1125)

4.6650

(0.1200)

190.52

5.1850

(0.1275)

5.3500

(0.1300)

5.4525

(0.1325)

5.5450

(0.1200)

5.6250

(0.1100)

5.7350

(0.1050)

138.62

3.7725

(0.1200)

3.8650

(0.1200)

3.9350

(0.1100)

3.9975

(0.1025)

3.9625

(0.0625)

4.0100

(0.0475)

     

9.3100

(0.0575)

9.4400

(0.0525)

9.5550

(0.0525)

9.6600

(0.0475)

9.6925

(0.0450)

9.6575

(0.0500)

 

Legend:

M = Minneapolis Grain Exchange;

K = Kansas City Board of Trade;

C = Chicago Board of Trade;

 

$ = cash price quote; N/A = quote not available; closed = Great Lakes are closed to vessels for winter; ¢/bu = cents per bushel;

 

Futures Contract Month: H = March;

K = May;

N = July;

U = September;

Z = December

 

NS/DNS=Northern Spring/Dark Northern Spring (subclasses of Hard Red Spring); HRW=Hard Red Winter; SRW=Soft Red Winter; SW=Soft White; WW=Western White (White Club & Soft White) F.O.B.= "Free on board" - Seller is responsible for placing grain at the end of the loading spout. Buyer is responsible for providing the ocean vessel and for all other costs after the grain is delivered on board. Basis: The difference between the cash price and futures month for specific quality, shipping period and geographical location.

 

Cash:

Durum, SW and WW are quoted in dollars per bushel ($/bu.) rather than basis for each contract month.

 

Convert:

To compute cash price, add basis level and current futures to get price per bushel. Multiply by 36.743 to get price per metric ton. Example: Basis = 70 and Future Price = $9.00, the price per bushel is $9.00 + .70 = $9.70/bu. Price per metric ton is $9.70 * 36.743 = $356/MT.

 

All prices are based upon U.S. number two grade or better as certified by the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS).

 
U.S. Wheat Associates  

U.S. Wheat Associates

 

Weekly Price Report (page 2)

 

November 8, 2019

 

Ocean Freight Rate Estimates by Origin*

U.S. dollars/metric ton

     

Export

Import

 

Handy

Handymax

Panamax

Freight Index**

General

Grain Freight

Number of

 

Ocean Freight Rate Indices

 

Region

Region

25-30 TMT

40-46 TMT

54+ TMT

Week Ending

Index

Index

Fixtures

500

Region Region 25-30 TMT 40-46 TMT 54+ TMT Week Ending Index Index Fixtures 500

US Gulf

Mexico (Veracruz)

18

15

11/8/2019

363.8

422.0

541

W.

South America (Peru/Ecu)

28

11/1/2019

368.4

425.0

442

450

S.

South America (Chile)

26

10/25/2019

368.8

425.0

500

N.

America (Columbia)

20

10/18/2019

371.3

425.0

563

400

E.

South America (Brazil)

24

10/11/2019

373.6

426.5

617

West Africa (Nigeria) East Mediterranean (Italy) West Mediterranean (Morocco) Persian Gulf (Iraq) Middle East (Egypt) Japan

55

10/4/2019

371.1

426.5

571

39

9/27/2019

376.8

431.5

548

350

37

9/20/2019

381.8

432.3

559

 

74

9/13/2019

383.8

432.3

509

300

30

9/6/2019

384.8

433.4

547

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

 

50

49

8/30/2019

378.9

433.4

455

Grain Freight Index

General Index

Mid Atlantic

N. South America (Venezuela) West Africa (Nigeria) Middle East (Egypt)

33

8/23/2019

372.6

430.1

596

 

56

8/16/2019

371.9

430.1

494

 

Handymax Freight Estimates

 
 

56

8/9/2019

366.3

424.4

520

 

35

30

25

20

15

10

35 30 25 20 15 10

St. Lawrence

N. South America (Venezuela) Europe/Rotterdam

18

8/2/2019

369.7

426.6

529

 

17

7/26/2019

373.7

428.3

565

Great Lakes

East Mediterranean (Italy)

55

7/12/2019

368.8

429.9

567

$/metric ton

PNW

W. South America (Peru/Ecu)

26

6/14/2019

352.4

422.6

527

S.

South America (Chile)

30

6/7/2019

354.7

424.3

489

N.

South America (Colombia)

32

5/31/2019

352.6

424.3

524

Persian Gulf (Iraq) Middle East (Egypt) East Africa (Djibouti/Mombasa) South Asia (Mal/Indon/Phil/Sing) Taiwan South Korea Japan

 

54

5/24/2019

351.6

424.3

587

 

31

5/17/2019

351.1

423.7

555

 

43

41

5/10/2019

350.5

423.7

584

37

29

5/3/2019

350.9

423.7

474

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

25

24

4/26/2019

347.4

424.3

514

 

24

23

4/18/2019

345.0

422.7

442

 

Mexico Gulf origin

Japan PNW origin

 

28

27

4/12/2019

343.0

421.5

621

 

Note: Rates for freight leaving the Great Lakes are quoted for 18,000 MT "Salties." Sources: *Trade representatives and recent shipments, **Maritime Research, Inc., ***Nominal Major Currencies, Federal Reserve Board

   

Selected Exchange Rates

 

1.00

 

1.40

   

1.38

Summary of Foreign Currency Exchange Rates (versus $1 U.S.)

 

0.95

1.36

US Dollar/ Canadian Dollar

Week Ending

Index***

Argentina

Australia

Brazil

Canada

Egypt

EU

Japan

Russia

1.34

11/8/19

N/A

59.50

1.459

4.161

1.323

16.10

0.907

109.2

63.82

0.90

1.32

11/1/19

115.9

59.52

1.447

3.990

1.313

16.09

0.896

108.2

63.52

1.30

10/25/19

116.2

59.92

1.466

4.003

1.306

16.12

0.903

108.6

63.84

US Dollar/ Euro

0.85

0.80

US Dollar/ Euro 0.85 0.80

1.28

10/18/19

116.3

58.17

1.459

4.111

1.312

16.23

0.895

108.4

63.75

1.26

11/8/18

11/8/14

115.7

99.02

35.44

8.513

1.378

1.165

3.760

2.571

1.315

1.141

17.86

7.173

0.880

0.807

114.1

115.1

66.89

47.16

1.24

1.22

1 year change 5 year change

 

N/A

67.89%

5.88%

10.65%

0.59%

-9.85%

3.10%

-4.30%

-4.59%

0.75

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

1.20

Nov-19

 

N/A

598.87%

25.26%

61.82%

15.95%

124.47%

12.48%

-5.15%

35.32%

 
   

Euro

Canadian Dollar

The weekly prices as reported by U.S. Wheat Associates are compiled through research from numerous market sources, including U.S. wheat exporters of all classes from various U.S. ports. The prices reported are representative of the value of number two grade and the proteins indicated. They are not intended to represent offers nor should importers of U.S. wheat rely upon them as such. Additional factors may alter these prices significantly. These factors may include: (1) payment terms (differing from cash against documents which are the terms used in the U.S. Wheat Associates price report); (2) various quality factors, and method of quality certification; (3) loading terms (USW prices represent Free on Board and do not include loading rate guarantees, stevedoring costs or other elevator tariff charges); (4) different delivery periods than indicated in monthly prices reported by U. S. Wheat Associates. U.S. Wheat Associates recommends regular contact with exporters of U.S. wheat in order to receive offers representative of your requirements. This contact will allow importers to review contract terms and better understand the U.S. grading system, role and function of the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS). Contact: For questions, please contact Claire Hutchins at (703) 650-0244 or chutchins@uswheat.org.

 
Nearby Futures Contract Prices SW and SRW Nearby Cash Prices 260 7.50 240 6.50 220
Nearby Futures Contract Prices
SW and SRW Nearby Cash Prices
260
7.50
240
6.50
220
5.50
200
4.50
180
3.50
160
CBOT SRW
KCBT HRW
MGEX HRS
PNW SW
Gulf SRW
Wheat Futures Forward Curve
closed
closed
6.00
closed
5.60
N/A
5.20
4.80
4.40
4.00
3.60
MAR (H20)
MAY (K20)
JUL (N20)
Gulf HRS 14
Gulf HRW 12
Gulf SRW
PNW HRS 14
PNW HRW 12
PNW SW 10.5
CBOT SRW
KCBT HRW
MGEX HRS
HRW Protein Premiums - PNW
HRW Cash Prices at the Gulf
260
8.00
240
7.00
220
6.00
200
5.00
180
4.00
160
3.00
140
120
2.00
100
1.00
80
0.00
PNW HRW Ord
PNW HRW 12
KCBT HRW Futures
Gulf HRW basis
U.S. Wheat Associates
Weekly Price Report (page 3
November 8, 2019
$/bu
$/bu
₵/buXX
$/bu
$/MT
U.S. Wheat Associates  

U.S. Wheat Associates

 

Weekly Price Report (page 4)

 

Highlights

November 8, 2019

 
   

Daily Futures Settlement Prices (DEC 19)

   
 

6.00

All wheat futures ended below last week’s close following pressure in the corn and soybean markets following USDA’s November supply and demand report that held corn and soybean acreage steady month-over-month. USDA’s report noting larger global wheat supplies added pressure. December soft red winter (SRW) futures lost 6 cents to close at $5.10/bu. December hard red winter (HRW) futures fell 4 cents to close at $4.21/bu. December hard red spring (HRS) futures lost 13 cents to end at $5.18/bu. CBOT December corn futures fell 12 cents to close at $3.77/bu. CBOT January soybean futures lost 6 cents to close at $9.31/bu.

5.75

5.75

5.50

5.25

5.00

$/ bu

4.75

 

4.50

Higher freight rates and minimal farmer selling supported HRW export basis out of the Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW) for November and December deliveries. Minimal farmer selling kept Gulf and PNW HRS export basis steady and high week-over-week.

4.25

4.00

3.75

New U.S. wheat commercial sales of 360,000 metric tons (MT) were 27% lower than last week’s 494,000 MT and in line with trade expectations of 350,000 MT to 600,000 MT. Year-to-date commercial sales of 14.9 million metric tons (MMT) are 9% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA forecasts 2019/20 U.S. wheat exports will total 25.9 MMT, 1% more than 2018/19, if realized.

3.50

 

11/1/19

11/4/19

11/5/19

11/6/19

11/7/19

11/8/19

CBOT SRW KCBT HRW MGEX HRS

CBOT SRW

KCBT HRW

KCBT HRW

CBOT SRW KCBT HRW MGEX HRS

MGEX HRS

 

denotes break between last Friday and current week

closed

 
 

On Nov. 4, USDA reported U.S. winter wheat planting at 89% complete compared to 83% last year and the 5- year average of 88%.

   

closed

 

HRS Export Basis for Nearby Delivery

 
 

250

 

200

N/A
N/A

In its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA lowered its U.S. HRS and durum production estimates following a wet, delayed harvest across the Northern Plains. The HRS production estimate fell by 1.0 MMT to 14.2 MMT in November. The durum production estimate fell from 1.58 MMT in October to 1.47 MMT in November.

150

₵/ bu

 

100

The Nov. 7 Drought Monitor reported widespread, beneficial rainfall in SRW-producing regions from the Midwest to the Southeast. Relatively dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures were reported across the High Plains. Looking ahead, above-normal precipitation is expected in eastern Montana and western parts of the Northern Plains.

50

0

Gulf HRS 14 PNW HRS 14 G.L. HRS 14
Gulf HRS 14
PNW HRS 14
G.L. HRS 14

USDA raised its forecasts for Russian, Ukrainian, and European Union (EU) wheat production and lowered its forecasts for Australian and Argentinian wheat production. Russian wheat production is expected to total 74.0 MMT, up from the October estimate of 72.5 MMT. Ukrainian farmers are expected to produce 29.0 MMT, up from 28.7 MMT. EU wheat production is expected to reach 153 MMT, up from 152 MMT. Australian wheat production

 

is expected to total 18.0 MMT, down from the October estimate of 20.0 MMT. Argentinian wheat production is forecast at 20.0 MMT, down from 20.5 MMT.

   

HRW Export Basis for Nearby Delivery

 
 

260

By Nov. 6, according to Bolsa de Cereales, only 15% of Argentina’s wheat crop is in good condition and none of the country’s wheat is rated excellent compared to 35% excellent and 9% excellent this time last year. The Argentinian wheat harvest is now 7% complete compared to 11% last year and the 5-year average of 8%.

240

240

220

200

On Nov. 6, according to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Brazil announced it intends to put into effect a tariff- free import quota for 750,000 MT of wheat imported from outside the Mercosure agreement. The Brazilian government is now moving forward with developing a final process and date for implementing the TRQ.

₵/ bu

180

160

 

140

The Baltic Dry Index fell 19% week-over-week from 1,697 to close at 1,428.

120

 

The U.S. Dollar Index climbed from last week’s 97.24 to end at 98.36.

 

100

Gulf HRW 12 PNW HRW 12
Gulf HRW 12
PNW HRW 12