Solved Problems

2.14 Each of the possible five outcomes of a random experiment is equally likely. The sample
space is {a, b, c, d, e}. Let A denote the event {a, b, c}, and let B denote the event {c, d, e}.
Determine the following:
(a) p(A) (b) p(B)
(c) p(A′) (d) p(A  B)
(e) p(A  B)

Solution:
The key information to note in the description of the problem is that all possible five outcomes of
the experiments are equally likely. Therefore, we use the classical formula to find the
probabilities.

Number of ways event A can happen

p( A) 
Number of ways the experiment can proceed

For our problem, S : {a, b, c, d, e}, A : {a, b, c}, and B : {c, d, e}.

n( A) 3
(a) p ( A)  
n( S ) 5
n( B ) 3
(b) p( B)  
n( S ) 5
n( A' ) n( S  A) 2
(c) p ( A' )   
n( S ) n( S ) 5
n( A  B ) 5
(d) p( A  B)    1 ; A  B : {a, b, c, d, e}
n( S ) 5
n( A  B ) 1
(e) p( A  B)   ; A  B : { c}
n( S ) 5

2.17 Orders for a computer are summarized by the optional features that are requested as
follows:
proportion of orders
no optional features 0.3
one optional feature 0.5
more than one optional feature 0.2
(a) What is the probability that an order requests at least one optional feature?
(b) What is the probability that an order does not request more than one optional feature?

Solution:
(a) ‘at least one optional feature’ includes ‘one optional feature’ and ‘more than one optional
features’. Therefore the probability is 0.5 + 0.2 = 0.7.
(b) ‘not request more than one optional feature’ includes ‘no optional features’ and ‘one
optional features’. Therefore the probability is 0.3 + 0.5 = 0.8.

2.24 Samples of a cast aluminum part are classified on the basis of surface finish (in
microinches) and edge finish. The results of 100 parts are summarized as follows:

edge finish
excellent good
surface excellent 80 2
finish good 10 8
Let A denote the event that a sample has excellent surface finish, and let B denote the event
that a sample has excellent edge finish. If a part is selected at random, determine the
following probabilities:
(a) p(A) (b) p(B)
(c) p(A′) (d) p(A  B)
(e) p(A  B) (f) p(A′  B)

Solution:
The details of the parts as follows. The events A and B are also specified in the table.

edge finish
excellent good total
surface excellent 80 2 82 A
finish good 10 8 18
total 90 10 100
B

Using this table, we can compute the probabilities.

n( A) 82
(a) p ( A)    0.82
n( S ) 100
n( B ) 90
(b) p ( B )    0.90
n( S ) 100
n( A' ) 18
(c) p ( A' )    0.18
n( S ) 100
n( A  B ) 10  80  2 92
(d) p ( A  B )     0.92
n( S ) 100 100
n( A  B ) 80
(e) p ( A  B )    0.80
n( S ) 100
n( A' B ) 10
(f) p ( A' B)    0.10
n( S ) 100

2.29 The analysis of shafts for a compressor is summarized by conformance to specifications.

roundness conforms
 yes no
surface finish yes 345 5
conforms no 12 8
(a) If a shaft is selected at random, what is the probability that the shaft conforms to
surface finish requirements?
(b) What is the probability that the selected shaft conforms to surface finish requirements
or to roundness requirements?
(c) What is the probability that the selected shaft either conforms to surface finish
requirements or does not conform to roundness requirements?
(d) What is the probability that the selected shaft conforms to both surface finish and
roundness requirements?

Solution:
The data provided can be written as follows.

roundness
conforms
yes no total
surface finish Yes 345 5 350
conforms No 12 8 20
Total 357 13 370

(a) The number of shafts conforming to surface finish requirements is 350. Therefore,
p = 350/370.
(b) Let the event A be that the shaft conforms to surface finish requirements, and the event B
be that the shaft conforms to roundness requirements. We have been asked to determine
p(A  B). The events A and B are specified in the table below.

roundness
conforms
yes no total
surface finish Yes 345 5 350 A
conforms No 12 8 20
Total 357 13 370
B

From the table, we can find that n(A  B) = 12 + 345 + 5 = 362. Therefore,
p(A  B) = 362/370.
(c) Let the event A be that the shaft conforms to surface finish requirements, and the event B
be that the shaft does not conforms to roundness requirements. We have been asked to
determine p(A  B). The events A and B are specified in the table below.

roundness
conforms
yes no total
surface finish Yes 345 5 350 A
conforms No 12 8 20
 Total 357 13 370
B

From the table, we can find that n(A  B) = 345 + 5 + 8 = 358. Therefore,
p(A  B) = 358/370.
(d) Let the event A be that the shaft conforms to surface finish requirements, and the event B
be that the shaft conforms to roundness requirements. We have been asked to determine
p(A  B). The events A and B are specified in the table below.

roundness
conforms
yes no total
surface finish yes 345 5 350 A
conforms no 12 8 20
total 357 13 370
B

From the table, we can find that n(A  B) = 345. Therefore, p(A  B) = 345/370.

2.34 The analysis of shafts for a compressor is summarized by conformance to specifications:

roundness conforms
yes no
surface finish yes 345 5
conforms no 12 8
(a) If we know that a shaft conforms to roundness requirements, what is the probability that
it conforms to surface finish requirements?
(b) If we know that a shaft does not conform to roundness requirements, what is the
probability that it conforms to surface finish requirements?

Solution:
The data provided can be written as follows.

roundness
conforms
yes no total
surface finish yes 345 5 350
conforms no 12 8 20
total 357 13 370

(a) Let the event A denotes that the shaft conforms to roundness requirements, and the event B
denotes that the shaft conforms to surface finish requirements. The table below highlights
the events A and B.

roundness
conforms
yes no total
 surface finish yes 345 5 350 B
conforms no 12 8 20
total 357 13 370
A

We have been asked to find p(B | A). We have learnt

p ( B  A)
p ( B | A) 
p ( A)
From the table, we obtain n(B  A) = 345 and n(A) = 357. Therefore
p ( B  A) 345 / 370 345
p ( B | A)   
p ( A) 357 / 370 357
(b) Let the event A denotes that the shaft does not conforms to roundness requirements, and the
event B denotes that the shaft conforms to surface finish requirements. The table below
highlights the events A and B.

roundness
conforms
yes no total
surface finish yes 345 5 350 B
conforms no 12 8 20
total 357 13 370
A

We have been asked to find p(B | A). We have learnt

p ( B  A)
p ( B | A) 
p ( A)
From the table, we obtain n(B  A) = 5 and n(A) = 13. Therefore
p ( B  A) 5 / 370 5
p ( B | A)   
p ( A) 13 / 370 13

2.39 A batch of 500 containers for frozen orange juice contains 5 that are defective. Two are
selected, at random, without replacement from the batch.
(a) What is the probability that the second one selected is defective given that the first one
was defective?
(b) What is the probability that both are defective?
(c) What is the probability that both are acceptable?

Solution:

Let A denotes the event that the first part selected is defective, and B denotes the event that the
second part chosen is defective.

(a) We have been asked to find p(B | A). From the lecture, we have learnt
p ( B  A)
p ( B | A) 
p ( A)
Since intersection is a commutative operation, we can also write this as
p( A  B)
p ( B | A) 
p ( A)
Since A and B are independent events, we can find the probabilities as
5 4
4
p ( B | A)  500 499 
5 499
500

(b) We have to find p(A  B).

5 4 1
p( A  B)  
500 499 12475

(c) We have to find p(A′  B′).

495 494 24453
p ( A'B ' )  
500 499 24950

2.42 The probability is 1% that an electrical connector that is kept dry fails during the warranty
period of a portable computer. If the connector is ever wet, the probability of a failure
during the warranty period is 5%. If 90% of the connectors are kept dry and 10% are wet,
what proportion of connectors fail during the warranty period?

Solution:

Let the event A denotes that the connector fails, B denotes that the connector is dry, and C
denotes that the connector is wet. We need the find the probability p(A). When the connector will
fail, it will either ne dry or wet. Therefore the event A can be written as.
p(A) = p[A  (B  C)] = p[(A  B)  (A  C)]
Since (A  B) and (A  C) are mutually exclusive events,
p[(A  B)  (A  C)] = p(A  B) + p(A  C)
We also know
p[(A  B) = p(A | B)•p(B) and p[(A  C) = p(A | C)•p(C)
Therefore
p(A) = p(A | B)•p(B) + p(A | C)•p(C)
= 0.01 × 0.90 + 0.05 × 0.01 = 0.014
The result indicates that 1.4% of all connectors will fail during warranty period.

2.54 The probability that a lab specimen contains high levels of contamination is 0.10. Five
samples are checked, and the samples are independent.
(a) What is the probability that none contains high levels of contamination?
(b) What is the probability that exactly one contains high levels of contamination?
 (c) What is the probability that at least one contains high levels of contamination?

Solution:

Let the event A denotes that a lab specimen contains a high level of contamination.

(a) We have to find the probability of the event A′  A′  A′  A′  A′. Therefore,

p(A′  A′  A′  A′  A′) = (0.9)5 = 0.59049.
(b) There are several possibilities of events that the sample will contain exactly one specimen
of high level of contamination. An example of such an event is A  A′  A′  A′  A′
where the first sample contains high level of contamination, and others do not. It total,
there would be five such combinations, with the event A taking different positions. But the
probability of each such sample would eventually remain the same. Therefore the intended
probability is
p = 5 × 0.1 ×0.9 × 0.9 × 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.32805
(c) We compute the desired probability by finding the probability of the complimentary event.
p(at least one level high level contamination) = 1 – p(no high level contamination)
Using the result from part (a),
p(at least one level high level contamination) = 1 – 0.59049 = 0.40951

2.57 The following circuit operates if and only if there is a path of functional devices from left
to right. The probability that each device functions is as shown. Assume that the probability
that a device is functional does not depend on whether or not other devices are functional.
What is the probability that the circuit operates?
 
0.9 0.8 0.7

0.95 0.95 0.95

Solution:
To find a solution to the problem of connectivity, let us name the components as follows. In
terms of these names, the top branch would operate if all the three components operate

A B C
 
0.9 0.8 0.7

0.95 0.95 0.95

D E F
simultaneously. This can be depicted as A  B  C. Similarly the operation of the bottom branch
can be depicted as D  E  F. Finally the circuit would operate if either of the two branches
operates. This can be indicated by (A  B  C)  (D  E  F). Since A, B and C are
independent,
p(A  B  C) = 0.9×0.8×0.7 = 0.504
and
p(D  E  F) = 0.95×0.95×0.95 = 0.8574

Therefore

p[(A  B  C)  (D  E  F)] = p(A  B  C) + p(D  E  F) –

p[(A  B  C)  (D  E  F)]
= 0.504 + 0.8574 −0.504×0.8574 = 0.9292