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Transport Modelling
Riza Atiq bin O.K. Rahmat
Four Steps Transport Model
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Modal Split
Trip Assignment
Trip Generation Model
Percentage of Home-based Trips
Socio-economic
f (Trip Attraction) =
Land-use characteristic
Trip Generation
Ti = 880 + 0.115Aoffice + 0.145Ashopping +
0.0367Amanufacturing
Trip Generation:
Linear Regression Model
•R2 = 0 - no correlation
•t-statistic
Regression parameter
t =
Standard error of the parameter
Trip Generation: Model development
1. Observe any relationship between parameters
Non-linear relationship could be linearised
Trip Generation: Model development
2. Produce Correlation matrix – Observe
correlation between independent variables
Car ownership Household Number Number Production
income of of worker
houses
Car ownership 1
Household 0.995135 1
income
Number of -0.80885 -0.81603 1
houses
Number of -0.30011 -0.30901 0.240331 1
worker
Production -0.81724 -0.82478 0.98193 0.409236 1
Trip Generation: Model development
Car ownership 1
Household 0.995135 1
income
Number of -0.80885 -0.81603 1
houses
Number of -0.30011 -0.30901 0.240331 1
worker
Production -0.81724 -0.82478 0.98193 0.409236 1
Correlations between Production with Car Ownership and Household Income are
negative which are illogical in real life situation. Therefore the two variable can be
omitted from the model.
Trip Generation: Regression Analysis
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99801829
R Square 0.996040507
Adjusted R 0.995574685
Square
Standard Error 141.4405503
Observations 20
ANOVA
Df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 85552805.7 42776403 2138.24 3.80133E-21
Residual 17 340092.2977 20005.43
Total 19 85892898
t-test for the intercept is -1.0056 at 95% confident limit -> not significant > should be omitted
Trip Generation: Regression Analysis
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.997900286
R Square 0.995804981
Adjusted R 0.940016369
Square
Standard Error 141.4846514
Observations 20
ANOVA
Df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 85532575.68 42766288 2136.402 3.82911E-21
Residual 18 360322.3185 20017.91
Total 20 85892898
ΣTij A1 A2 A3 An W
i
Σ jTij = Pi
Σ i Σ jTij = W = Σ i Pi = Σ j A j
Σ iTij = A j
Trip Distribution Model
• ( T11 + T12 + T13 + T14 + -- + T1n )
•
•+ ( T21 + T22 + T23 + T24 + -- + T2n )
•
•+ ( T31 + T32 + T33 + T34 + -- + T3n )
•+ ….
•or
•P1 + P2 + P3 + P4 + P5 + ……. + Pn = W
•or
Attraction
f ( Rij )
∑T j
ij = Pi
1
K=
A j / f ( Rij ) ∑ Aj / f ( Rij )
Tij = Pi j
∑A
j
j / f ( Rij )
Gravity Model:
Attraction Constrain
1
K=
∑ Pi / f ( Rij )
i
Pi / f ( Rij )
Tij = A j
∑ Pi / f ( R )
i
ij
Gravity Model:
Double Constrain
Pi A j
Tij = K i K j
f ( Rij )
1 To calculate Ki, give value to Kj as 1.0.
Ki =
∑ K j Aj / f ( Rij )
Use the calculated value Ki to calculate Kj.
Calculate Ki using the new calculated
j
value of Kj. Repeat the calculation until
1 value of Ki and Kj converge to a solution
Kj =
∑ K i Pi / f ( Rij )
i
Separation Function
f(Rij) = separation function between zone I and zone j
α
f ( Rij ) = Traveltime
f ( Rij ) = eα *TravelCost
f ( Rij ) = eα *TravelTime
Desire Line
• A visual presentation of OD matrix
Klang Valley when NKVE, Shah Alam Highway, SKVE and MRR2 were planned
Modal Split Model
Decision Structure All Trips
Choice
Choice
Public Private
Choice Choice
0.9
0.8
Share of trips by walking
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
Calibration
1− P
= D * eα *Dis tan ce
P
1− P
ln( ) = ln D + α * Dis tan ce
P
Y = C +mX (a linear regression problem)
Regression analysis
Stated preference Survey
• Recall revealed preference
• Guide line
– Minimize non-response
– Personal interviews
– Pretest for interviewer effects etc.
– Referendum format
– Provide adequate background info.
– Remind of substitute commodities
– Include & explain non-response option
Travel Between Bangi and Putrajaya
If there is an LRT service between Bangi and Putrajaya
If LRT ticket is RM 2.90 for the journey and certain reduction in travel time, are you going to shift from bus to the proposed LRT?
Bus fare LRT fare Reduction in travel time % of bus passengers shift to LRT
1 1.60 2.90 0 12.5%
2 1.60 2.90 5 15.5%
3 1.60 2.90 10 19.0%
4 1.60 2.90 15 23.0%
5 1.60 2.90 20 27.0%
6 1.60 2.90 25 32.0%
7 1.60 2.90 30 38.0%
8 1.60 2.90 40 49.0%
If reduction in travel time is 20 minutes and the proposed LRT fare as follows:
Bus fare LRT fare Reduction in travel time % of bus passengers shift to LRT
1 1.60 2.00 20 30.1%
2 1.60 2.25 20 29.2%
3 1.60 2.50 20 28.7%
4 1.60 2.75 20 28.0%
5 1.60 3.00 20 27.1%
6 1.60 3.25 20 26.5%
7 1.60 3.50 20 25.7%
8 1.60 3.75 20 25.0%
ln((1-P)/P) Fare differences Reduction of travel time
X1 X2
1 1.94591 1.30 0
2 1.695912 1.30 5
3 1.45001 1.30 10
4 1.208311 1.30 15
5 0.994623 1.30 20
6 0.753772 1.30 25
7 0.489548 1.30 30
8 0.040005 1.30 40
1 0.84254 0.40 20
2 0.88569 0.65 20
3 0.909999 0.90 20
4 0.944462 1.15 20
5 0.989555 1.40 20
6 1.020141 1.65 20
7 1.06162 1.90 20
8 1.098612 2.15 20
Regression analysis
1
P=
1 + De (αCost + βTime )
α = 0.145515 , β = -0.04766
and D = exp(1.741845) = 5.707863
Travel Time Value
• Willingness to pay to safe travel time
1
P=
1 + De (αCost + βTime )
• Cost and time are two different dimensions
• β/α is considered a Transformation Factor to convert time
into monitory value.
1
P= ( 0.145515*Cost + 0.04766*Time ) Value of time
1 + De = 0.04766 / 0.145515 RM/min
= RM 19.65 / hr
Trip Assignment
Zone 1 Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 5
Zone 4
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5
Zone 1 200 150 300 350
Zone 2 250 50 120
Zone 3
Zone 5
Zone 4
Minimum path
tree from zone 1
to all other zones.
Trip assignment from Zone 1
Volume =
Volume = 200+150+300+350= 1000
200+150+300=
350
Zon Zone 2
1 Volume =
200
Volume = 150+300
Volume = = 450
350
Zone 3
Zone 5
Volume =
300
Volume =
Zone 4 150