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• Earthquakes Can Occur Away From Plate Boundaries (e.g. the New Madrid
Fault Zone in the Mississippi Valley)
• Fault Types
• Normal fault – hanging wall moves down relative to footwall. These are
caused by tensional stress – “pulling apart” and are typically related to
divergent plate boundaries (e.g. mid-ocean ridges and rift valleys).
Normal faulting has createdthe mountains and valleys of the Basin and
Range “province” of Arizona and Nevada (including the Phoenix area)
• Strike-slip faults – movement is side to side, with the other side of the
fault moving right (right lateral) or left (left lateral) relative the side you
are standing on. These are caused by shear stress and are typically
related to transform boundaries (e.g. sea floor fracture zone along the
mid-ocean ridges, the San Andreas Fault and Anatolian Fault (Turkey)
zones). The San Andreas Fault is a right lateral strike-slip fault zone.
• Seismic waves travel outward from the focus, and arrival times at seismic
stations allow us to determine the epicenter
• Earthquakes can also cycle over time as strain builds up again and again in the
same areas. And, they can cycle in “space” as the location of earthquakes along
a fault line can change over time, producing “seismic gaps” or areas along a fault
with no movement for long periods of time.
Ø Earthquake Risks can be estimated based on likelihood of an event of a certain
magnitude within a period of time, or on a combination of largest quake likely
and average amount of motion per year. There are probabilistic methods
(probability of an earthquake happening) for a given magnitude or intensity,
estimating the earthquake risk of an area and of a fault segment. Seismic hazard
maps can be created to show areas that are at the greatest risk.
• Earthquakes may lead to others farther on along active fault zones, however
the pattern may be either somewhat regular in time and space or clustered, with
centuries of relative quiet in between, further increasing the difficulty of quake
prediction
• Earthquake Prediction - Earthquake hazard risk mapping can help with long
term predictions of when an earthquake might happen (e.g. within the next 30
years). Short-term prediction (forecast) is much less reliable. These short term
predictions may be based on a number of things, such as the frequency and
distribution pattern of foreshocks, pre-quake deformation of the ground surface:
Tilting, elevation changes (e.g. GPS & Laser ranging), the emission of radon gas
(from newly fractured rocks), seismic gap along faults (strain build-up), and
abnormal animal activities.
• Earthquake Warning Systems are technically feasible, but only about a minute
warning. Earthquake warning systems may provide seconds to a minute of
warning to nearby urban areas once an earthquake has occurred (such systems are
currently in use in California and Japan). This is not a prediction tool, and false
alarms are possible.
• Perception of the Earthquake Hazard – The public needs to be prepared for the
earthquake potential, even psychologically. Pre-earthquake planning is needed
and there needs to be a system for post-earthquake emergency response. Better
response is needed in terms of engineering structural designs to minimize the
hazard risks.
WSE 8/2012