Ocean and Coastal Management 170 (2019) 72–79

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Ocean and Coastal Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ocecoaman

Modelling environmental vulnerability of the Biosphere Reserve Parque T

Atlántico Mar Chiquito, Argentina, under agricultural and urban impacts
Pedro A. Garzoa,d,∗, José R. Dadona,b, Liliana N. Castroc,d
a
Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Arquitectura, Diseño y Urbanismo, Centro de Investigaciones Gestión de Espacios Costeros (GEC-FADU-UBA), Intendente
Güiraldes 2160, Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón III, Piso 4°, Zip Code: 1428, Buenos Aires, Argentina
b
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina
c
Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Geología, Instituto de Geo-ciencias Básicas, Aplicadas y Ambientales de Buenos
Aires (IGEBA-CONICET), Intendente Güiraldes 2160, Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón II, Piso 1°, Zip Code: 1428, Buenos Aires, Argentina
d
Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Agronomía, Departamento de Ingeniería Agrícola y Uso de la Tierra, Av. San Martín 4453, Zip Code: 1417, Buenos Aires,
Argentina

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The World Biosphere Reserve Parque Atlántico Mar Chiquito is the only micromareal lagoon in Argentina and
Protected areas the southernmost in South America. The objective of this study is to model the environmental vulnerability of
Environmental modelling the hydrological basin under different land use changes. The model can provide information to prevent flood
Agricultural runoff events, pollution and other hazards, as well as constituting a contribution to integrated land planning and
Drainage basin
management. We estimated the Runoff Curve Number for each hydrologic soil-cover complex under seven land-
Coastal urbanization
use scenarios, considering agronomic activities and urban growth. The results showed that the waterlogging
vulnerability increased under the selected scenarios, strongly associated with the soil types present in the district
but also due to the land uses and their impacts in well-structured, well-drained soils.

1. Introduction
Coastal lagoons are transitional ecosystems that provide unique
environmental services due to the combined biogeochemical contribu-
tions from land, rivers and sea (Viaroli et al., 2007). They comprise
almost 13% of the world's most productive coastal systems (Beltrame
et al., 2009).
Urbanization drastically alters the hydrological dynamics of coastal
systems. Building, street pavement and transportation infrastructure
create extended impermeable surfaces on sandy permeable soils, con-
sequently hampering the pluvial recharge of aquifers and increasing
surface water retention. Hence, waterlogging vulnerability and the se-
diment balance are altered, leading to coastal erosion (Schueler, 1987;
Alley et al., 2002; Mantero, 2006; Pousa et al., 2007; Dadon, 2011a;
Sanguinetti et al., 2011). Land use changes (LUC) other than urban
development, such as those related to agricultural frontier expansion
and touristic activities, can deteriorate the environmental variables and
degrade ecosystem services, such as food production capacity, fresh-
water resources renewal or climate regulation (Foley et al., 2005).
The study of the urban development, the cycle of standing crops and
other trends related with LUC can anticipate future impacts and such
information can be incorporated into management and planning deci-
sion-making processes. Landscape pattern analysis from a multi-
disciplinary approach based on remote sensing and geographical in-
formation systems can be used to identify, assess and classify
vulnerability (Amiri et al., 2014; Choudhary et al., 2017). Modelling
environmental vulnerability and predicting LUC impacts under dif-
ferent scenarios are crucial to reducing risks, ensuring food security,
and devising land-use plans, economic policies, management strategies
and conservation practices (Verburg et al., 2013). Slope maps, land uses
and soil hydrologic groups were integrated according to a method de-
veloped by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service in order to study the
association between the LUC and the surface runoff in rural areas of the
Valencian Community, Spain (López García et al., 2007) and in three
basins of the Coatan River region, Mexico (Alonso Sánchez et al., 2014).
Hydrological modelling was useful to evaluate the impacts of urban
growth, as shown for example in the study cases of Alginet, Spain
(Campos et al., 2004), the Miranda Region, Venezuela (Sánchez and

Abbreviations: LUC, Land use changes; WBRPAMC, World Biosphere Reserve Parque Atlántico Mar Chiquito; CN, Curve Number; HSG, Hydrologic soil groups;
HSCC, Hydrologic soil-cover complexes
∗
Corresponding author. Intendente Güiraldes 2160, Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón III, Piso 4°, Zip Code: 1428, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
E-mail address: pgarzo@agro.uba.ar (P.A. Garzo).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.01.004
Received 28 March 2018; Received in revised form 9 January 2019; Accepted 13 January 2019
0964-5691/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
P.A. Garzo et al.
Martínez González, 2013) and Los Angeles, Chile (Henríquez and
Azócar, 2006; Henríquez et al., 2006).
The analysis of environmental vulnerability becomes imperative for
reserve areas management, particularly in those surrounded by pro-
ductive and urban areas. International programmes like the Man and
the Biosphere (MAB) Programme include among their objectives the
identification of impacts resulting from human activities and the in-
terrelationships between ecosystems and socio-economic processes
(UNESCO, 1996). Extensive literature deals with the environmental
impacts on coastal biosphere reserves, among them Western Port,
Australia (Mercer and Hyman, 2009), Ranong, Thailand (Macintosh
et al., 2002), Palawan, Philippines (Kuijper, 2003), Gulf of Mannar,
India (Bavinck and Vivekanandan, 2011), Yancheng, China (Zuo et al.,
2004), and Cabo Gata-Nijar, Spain (Hogg et al., 2017).
The Mar Chiquita Coastal Lagoon (37°32′ to 37′45°S′, 57°19′ to
57°26′W; Fig. 1) is the only micromareal lagoon in Argentina and the
southernmost in South America. This estuarine system with high bio-
diversity (Iribarne, 2001) that provides valuable ecosystem services
(Beltrame et al., 2009) is under several overlapped and superimposed
protection statuses, as provincial (state) natural reserve and wildlife
refuge (1989, 1999); municipal reserve (1990); BirdLife International
Area (IBA); and, the more extensive (264.88 km2), World Biosphere
Reserve Parque Atlántico Mar Chiquito - WBRPAMC (1996) (Iribarne,
2001; Isaach, 2010).
The drainage basin extends 10.000 km2 (Lanfredi et al., 1987) in the
Flooding Pampa Region (Tricart, 1973), an alluvial sedimentary plain
with a very gentle longitudinal slope, poor drainage system and little
hydraulic conductivity of soils (Soriano et al., 1992). Water puddles,
waterlogging events and surface runoff are frequent due to the low
infiltration capacity (Matteucci, 2012). The large-scale agriculturiza-
tion of the Pampa displaced other productive activities such as cattle
ranching towards marginal lands and intensified the use of fragile soils,
increasing the risk of waterlogging (Díaz Zorita et al., 2002). The most
extensive practices are soybean (Glicine max), monoculture and soy-
bean-corn rotations, which superseded traditional crops like wheat
(Triticum aestivum) as the main exportation of the country due to the
high yields of genetically modified seeds, short rotation times and low
tillage costs. The soybean crop area expanded by 15 million hectares in
Argentina between 1980 and 2005 and the trend still continues pre-
sently, fuelled by the demands and the rising prices of this commodity
in the international market (Donald, 2004; Aizen et al., 2009; Giletta
and Bongiovanni, 2010; Reboratti, 2010).
73
Ocean and Coastal Management 170 (2019) 72–79
Fig. 1. Left: Buenos Aires Province (dark green), Argentina
and Mar Chiquita District (yellow). Right: Mar Chiquita
Coastal Lagoon, rural hinterland (light green) and coastal
fringe (beige). The World Biosphere Reserve Parque
Atlántico Mar Chiquito limits are indicated in dashed red
line. Urban areas: 1. Santa Elena; 2. Atlántida; 3. Santa Clara
del Mar; 4. Camet Norte; 5. La Caleta; 6. Mar de Cobo; 7.
Balneario Parque Mar Chiquita; 8. Coronel Vidal; 9. General
Pirán; 10. Vivoratá. (For interpretation of the references to
colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web
version of this article.)
Following the same trend, the area of soybean and winter cereals
cultivation expanded 160% in the Mar Chiquita region during the
1999–2013 period (Zelaya et al., 2016). The unwanted effects of this
tendency are the higher levels of nutrients, pesticides and heavy metals
detected in the local watercourses. Since heavy metals and many pes-
ticides are persistent, they can impact on non-target organisms and
accumulate in the soil and aquatic sediments (Dalla Valle et al., 2007).
Because of the runoff, pollutants are transported down to the Mar
Chiquita lagoon, where they become toxic to the biological commu-
nities due to bioaccumulation and biomagnification (Marcovecchio
et al., 1986; De Marco et al., 2006; Beltrame et al., 2009).
The Mar Chiquita lagoon is located within the homonymous district
of Buenos Aires Province. The district extends 3096 km2 and the main
economic activities are agriculture and livestock in the wide hinterland,
and beach tourism along the narrow coastal fringe. The resident po-
pulation of about 20,000 inhabitants (INDEC, 2010) is concentrated in
ten urban cores, seven of them on the Atlantic coast and the rest in the
hinterland (Fig. 1). Coronel Vidal is the main city but, as the main
seaside resort of the district, Santa Clara del Mar is the most populated
(7000 inhabitants).
Among the hydrological models developed for Pampean hydro-
logical basins, Chagas et al. (2008) compared the dynamics of a Rolling
Pampa micro-basin taking into account the surface runoff under con-
ventional and no-tillage cultivation. Chagas et al. (2011) evaluated the
response of soils considering the edaphic properties and the position in
the landscape. Ares et al. (2014) studied several basin hydrological
patterns of the same region and the relationship with LUC. Moreover,
Segovia and Hang (2009) characterized hydrological factors of rural
basins of the Buenos Aires Province based on satellite images.
Hydrological studies of both rural and urban Pampean environ-
ments are scarce. Merlotto et al. (2012) studied historical growth and
its influence on the drainage basins and other factors of the coastal
morpho-dynamic of the urban agglomeration Necochea-Quequén.
However, most urban growth impact studies concentrated almost ex-
clusively on the coastal erosive processes related to touristic urbani-
zations (for example, Codignotto, 1997; 2009; Isla et al., 1998; 2001;
Dadon, 2011a; Maresca, 2013). Bértola et al. (2013) conducted an ex-
haustive study of the coastal erosion of the Mar Chiquita district and its
impact on the beaches. Unlike previous studies, Tassara and García
(2015) studied 9 km in the southern part of the Mar Chiquita district
where they appraised the vulnerability degree of the coast due to ero-
sive processes, as well as anthropic impacts. Other environmental
P.A. Garzo et al. Ocean and Coastal Management 170 (2019) 72–79

impacts related to the Pampean coastal urbanizations were landscape

Moderately low runoff potential. Content of clays does not restrict water
degradation, loss of biodiversity, beach pollution and groundwater
salinization (Dadon, 2002, 2011a).

Moderately high runoff potential. Water transmission is restricted.

The objective of this study is to model the environmental vulner-

Low runoff potential. Water circulates freely through soil pores.

Very high runoff potential. Very restricted water transmission.

ability of the hydrological basin of the World Biosphere Reserve Parque
Atlántico Mar Chiquito and the Mar Chiquita district under different
LUC. The model can provide information to prevent flood events, pol-
lution and other hazards, as well as contributing to integrated land
planning and management.

2. Materials and methods

The risk of waterlogging is a function of the probability of occur-

rence of significant rainfall and the high environmental vulnerability of
the soils, among other elements (Falasca et al., 2001; Panigatti, 2010;
Vázquez et al., 2011). The widely used and efficient Runoff Curve
Number (also Curve Number - CN) method estimates the runoff from a

Observations
rainfall event in a particular area taking into account the soil type and

circulation.
land use combination, namely the Hydrologic Soil-Cover Complex
(HSCC) (NRCS, 2012). Although the method is designed for a single
storm event, it can be scaled to find average annual runoff values. The

Water Transmission
average CN for each sector assumes that the precipitation generates

Hydrological characteristics associated to the different Hydrologic Soil Groups, according to the Runoff Curve Number Method (NRCS, 2012).

Very low or zero

direct runoff and that both rainfall and runoff are uniform in that area.
Three possible previous soil water conditions can be considered ac-

Moderated
cording to whether they are dry (AMC1), intermediate (AMC2) or

High
humid (AMC3). We estimated the CN values considering AMC2. The CN

Low
value varies between 1 (precipitation infiltrates completely into the soil
profile) and 100 (total surface runoff) (NRCS, 2012).

Between sandy clay and silty clay

Between clay loam and silty clay
The soil types and their characteristics were identified from the
GEOINTA GIS “Proyecto Suelos de la República Argentina 1: 500.000”
(INTA, 2013). According to the CN hydrological parameters (Table 1), Between loam and silt loam
the soils were classified into Hydrologic Soil Groups (HSG), which vary
in four categories (A-D) in descending order of infiltration. The land use
scenarios were selected from the main agricultural activities of the
Sandy loam

district (Matteucci, 2012): row crops (maize, soybean, sunflower), small

Texture

Clayey

grain crops (wheat), crop rotations, pastures (forage crops), mixed

Sandy

loam

forest and pasture (silvopastoril systems), bare and fallow soil. The
QGis 2.18.9 software was used to analyse the data and present the re-
Moderately well drained

sults.
Very poorly drained
Imperfectly drained
Excessively drained

The CN value associated with each HSCC of the scenarios was cal-
culated. Additionally, a single value for each scenario was estimated,
Poorly drained
Well drained
Well drained

considering the area occupied by each complex as a weighting factor

Drainage

(NRCS, 2012), according to:

CNEi = [∑ (CNCHSCCj ∗ %SupHSCCj )]/100

Between 25 and 50 cm or prevented by waterproof

where,

• CN = Weighted Curve Number value of scenario i.

Ei

• CN = Curve Number value for the HSCC j.

HSCCj

• % Sup = Surface of HSCC j, expressed as percentage of the total

HSCCj
district.
Between 50 and 90 cm.

A scenario was estimated for each activity for the entire territory of
the district, except for the zone comprised by the strict conservation
More than 90 cm.

More than 90 cm.

Less than 25 cm.

area of the WBRPAMC (1.5% of the district). Water bodies were ex-
cluded (840 km2, 2.8% of the district). Due to the changes in the vegetal
cover in the course of the crop cycle, the maximum and minimum land
Depth

layer.

use scenarios were considered, replacing the point location of land use
that satellite images provide.
In order to estimate the urban growth impact on hydrological dy-
Infiltration

Moderated

Very Low

namics, variations in infiltration were calculated also using the CN

High

Low

method. Urban growth was estimated for the seven coastal resorts by
comparison of Google Earth satellite images from the years 2003, 2009
Table 1

HSG

and 2016. Impermeable and permeable urban surfaces (NRCS, 2012)

D
A

C
B

were identified on each satellite image. The impermeable surfaces

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P.A. Garzo et al. Ocean and Coastal Management 170 (2019) 72–79

Fig. 2. Hydrologic soil groups (A–D) and water bodies (WD) for the Mar Chiquita District, according to the Runoff Curve Number Method (NRCS, 2012). The soil
types were identified from “Proyecto Suelos de la República Argentina 1: 500.000” (INTA, 2013) and classified according to Table 1.

(buildings, streets, roads and any concrete infrastructure) were drawn
and the corresponding increments were estimated with the software
QGis 2.18.9. The Weighted CN of an urban area was calculated as:
CNi = CNp + (%Imp /100 ) ∗ (CNimp − CNp)
where,
• CN = Weighted Curve Number value of resort i.
i
• CNp = Curve Number value of the permeable surface of resort i.
• % Imp = Impermeable surface percentage of resort i.
• CNimp = Curve Number value of the impermeable surface of resort
i.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Agricultural impacts
The soils of the district correspond mostly to waterlog areas (Fig. 2).
D soils occupy 62.8% of the district, followed by 25.9% of B soils and
7.40% of C soils, while less vulnerable A soils are restricted to the
coastal dunes, occupying 0.8% of the total surface.
The scenarios of the present study considered crop rotations and the
seasonal distribution of the different stages. Maximum occupation of
the field was analyzed as the worst possible situation facing the risk of
waterlogging as a function of the probability of occurrence of sig-
nificant rainfall (Vázquez et al., 2011). The crop rotations vary
throughout a harvest year according to climatic, agronomic and socio-
economic conditions. The cycle begins with the fallow stage or bare soil
between the harvest of one crop and the sowing of the next. The no-
tillage system has favoured the implementation of chemical fallow for
weed removal. Sowing, emergence, growth and development and har-
vest are the following stages (Fernández, 2014). Under favorable agro-
ecological conditions, the production yields two harvests per year.
Wheat, soybean, corn and sunflower correspond to 90% of total grain
production, usually as a succession of wheat/soybean second-corn or
wheat/soybean first-soybean second (Fernández, 2014).
The estimated CN values ranged between 32 and 94 units, the
highest registered for the “bare soil” and “fallow” categories. The small
grain crops, row crops and crop rotations have similar maximum values
close to 85 CN units and are associated with the soils of group D. The
minimum vulnerability is related to silvopastoril practices in A soils,
but this result requires careful interpretation since these soils are found
mainly on the coastal dunes.
The weighted vulnerability for the entire district reached values
between 71 and 90 CN units (Table 2). The minimum values are asso-
ciated with silvopastoril practices and pasture implantation while the
maximum values are associated with bare soil and fallow crops.
The highest waterlogging vulnerability was linked to row crops,
small grain crops and crop rotations. Even though fallow crops and bare
soil were herein considered as a separate land use category, they are
stages of the agricultural management practices and should be taken
into account due to their potential impact.

Table 2
Curve Number values associated to the different Hydrologic Soil Groups for each of the seven land use scenarios. The final column shows the weighted values for the
whole district area.
Scenarios Land Use Hydrologic Soil Group Weighted Curve Number

A B C D

1 Row crops (maize, soybean, sunflower) 64 75 82 85 80

2 Small grain crops (wheat) 60 72 80 84 79
3 Pastures (forage crops) 39 61 74 80 73
4 Crop rotations 58 72 81 85 79
5 Mixed forest and pastures (silvopastoril systems) 32 58 72 79 71
6 Fallow crops 74 83 88 90 86
7 Bare soil 77 86 91 94 90

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P.A. Garzo et al. Ocean and Coastal Management 170 (2019) 72–79

Fig. 3. Curve Number values for each

Hydrologic Soil-Cover Complex under dif-
ferent land use scenarios: 1. Row crops; 2.
Small grain crops; 3. Forage crops; 4. Crops
rotations; 5. Mixed forest and pastures; 6.
Fallow crops; 7. Bare soil. The strict con-
servation area of the World Biosphere
Reserve Parque Atlántico Mar Chiquito
(white) was not included in the modelling
process.

The vulnerability pattern of each HSCC under the five scenarios
showed clear differences. CN values of A soils varied between 32 and
64, while D soils were 79 and 85 units, indicating that although a
greater relative increment would occur in type A soils, the most severe
LUC impacts would affect type D soils (Fig. 3).
Direct runoff is one of the major sources of non-point pollution in
watercourses (Jergentz et al., 2005) and the impact of the LUC on
susceptible lands assumes an increase in waterlogging and, therefore, in
the sedimentary load that reaches the watercourses due to the fluvial
erosion. The agricultural production systems of the region incorporate
fertilizers (nitrogen and phosphorus) as well as pesticides in the crop
cycle. The soil adsorption of contaminants prevent them from reaching
underground water, but the erosive processes drag sediments into the
receiving water bodies. Hence, the sedimentary load can potentially
cause physical, chemical and/or biological changes in the Mar Chiquita
lagoon (Ongley, 1997; Fernández, 2014). Even when some strategies
that prevent lagoon pollution are applied (Isaach, 2010), the im-
plementation is restricted to the reserve area instead of the complete
basin.
3.2. Urban impacts
The population increased by 18% in the 2001–2010 period (INDEC,
2010), but the urban growth patterns of the coastal resorts was diverse
(Table 3, Fig. 4). The built surface area of the district grew close to 7%
during the 2003–2016 period. Mar Chiquita, Santa Elena and Atlánti-
da's relative building area increment was less than 4%, while Camet
Norte, Mar de Cobo and La Caleta's rates oscillated between 9% and
11%. In absolute values, Mar de Cobo registered the maximum incre-
ment (2.37 km2) and Mar Chiquita the minimum 0.17 km2. Santa Clara
del Mar's dynamism was remarkable (22.6 km2), while the remaining
resorts ranged between 4 and 7 km2. The results for the partial periods
2003–2009 and 2010–2016 were also diverse, the latter with higher
increments, mostly concentrated in La Caleta, Mar de Cobo and Camet
Norte. The La Caleta-Mar de Cobo conurbation expansion was 0.13 km2
per year during the first period and 0.4 km2 per year in the second
(Fig. 5).
Differences in house construction rates were due to several factors.
Mar de Cobo, La Caleta and Camet Norte were uncrowded small towns
where tourists enjoyed peaceful and solitary beaches. The abundance of
vacant lots and the low prices were attractive for applicants to the
national mortgage credits ProCreAr programme, that promoted re-
gional decentralized development. Many applicants from Mar del Plata,
a city of 756,000 inhabitants located 35 km away (INDEC, 2010),
thought it more advantageous to move to these Mar Chiquita coastal
towns, which explained the rapid growth during the 2010–2016 period.
Most of these incomers became permanent residents with jobs in Mar
del Plata (Secretaria de Turismo y Medio Ambiente Flavia Laguné, pers.
comm.), a new settlement pattern contrasting with that of traditional
second residence owners. On the other hand, the vacant space was
scarce in the larger and more consolidated resorts of Santa Clara del
Mar and Mar Chiquita.
The studied urbanizations contrasted with other touristic cities of
the Pampean Coast, such as Villa Gesell and Pinamar, where the urban
growth has been longitudinal and parallel to the coastline (Juárez and
Isla, 1999; Mantero, 2001; Dadon, 2011b) and also Miramar, Necochea
and Quequén, where growth has been perpendicular to the coastline
and has progressed inland (Ackerman, 2011; Sanguinetti et al., 2011;
Merlotto et al., 2012). The Mar Chiquita resorts seemed to follow a
more homogeneous occupation pattern where the new houses are
spread over the whole city surface area (Fig. 5). This relatively homo-
geneous internal structure simplified the estimation of the

Table 3
Urban growth of the Mar Chiquita coastal resorts and Weighted Runoff Curve Number values for years 2003, 2009 and 2016.
Resort Urban Surface Area (km2) Residences Surface Area (km2) Relative Residences Surface Area (%) Weighted Runoff Curve Number

2003 2009 2016 2003 2009 2016 2003 2009 2016

Atlántida 13.0 3.78 3.96 4.26 29 31 33 82 82 82

Camet Norte 17.9 3.78 4.03 5.32 21 23 30 81 81 82
La Caleta 14.0 2.34 2.41 3.80 17 17 27 80 80 82
Mar Chiquita 13.4 3.81 3.84 3.97 28 29 30 88 88 88
Mar de Cobo 22.0 4.40 5.26 6.77 20 24 31 81 82 83
Santa Clara del Mar 39.6 20.39 21.29 22.64 52 54 57 86 87 87
Santa Elena 22.7 4.47 4.68 5.29 20 21 23 81 81 82
TOTAL 142.6 42.97 45.47 52.05 30 32 37 – – –

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P.A. Garzo et al. Ocean and Coastal Management 170 (2019) 72–79

Fig. 4. Percentage of urbanized area for each coastal resort in the years 2003, 2009 and 2016.

environmental vulnerability. are significantly higher than those of nearby counties such as Villa
The weighted CN values (Table 3) remained unchanged from 2003 Gesell and Pinamar with rates of around 2.5 and 1.5 m per year, re-
to 2016 for the smallest resorts (Atlántida and Mar Chiquita) while they spectively (Schnack et al., 1983; Isla et al., 1997; 1998; 2001). Since the
registered similar values for Santa Elena, La Caleta, Camet Norte and Mar Chiquita coast is highly vulnerable to erosion processes, its urban
Atlántida. The Balneario Parque Mar Chiquita maximum was related to growth should be carefully planned.
the soils that surround the coastal lagoon classified as soils D (Fig. 3).
Although Mar Chiquita has a smaller urbanized area than other resorts
4. Conclusions
such as Santa Clara, it exhibits a higher CN value.
A scenario inferring possible changes in the vulnerability due to the
The results of this study allow us to conclude that agricultural ac-
potential development of the coastal urbanizations was projected. The
tivities and urban growth increase the environmental waterlogging
building coverage of the most consolidated resort Santa Clara del Mar
vulnerability of the Mar Chiquita district. Increases in vulnerability are
(57%) was extrapolated to an urban continuum along the district
strongly associated with soil types but the land uses can cause severe
coastline from the southern boundary to the mouth of the lagoon
impacts in well-structured, well-drained soils.
(Fig. 6B), eventually merging with Mar del Plata. In this scenario, the
The demand of the world market for commodities encourages the
urban area would change from a fragmented urban structure of
replacement of pastures by bean soy and/or cereal crops, the intensive
142.6 km2 and a building coverage of 37% in 2016 (Fig. 6a) to a future
use of soils beyond their potential capacities and the expansion of
conurbation occupying 325 km2 and a coverage of 57% (Fig. 6b). Under
agricultural practices from productive lands to fragile areas. Fertilizers
these assumptions, the weighted CN value for the entire coastal fringe
and pesticides are essential components of this agricultural model; the
would change from an estimated value of 80 units to a predicted value
excess is transported to the lower levels of the basin, despite the mul-
of 88 units, a considerable increment taking into account the presum-
tiple legal statuses protecting the coastal lagoon.
able direct effects on the population.
Urban growth, mostly associated to sea and sun tourism and con-
The urban growth and the correlative creation of impermeable
sisting of second residences along the coastal zone, also boosts en-
surfaces in the land-coastal interface are also the main anthropic causes
vironmental waterlogging vulnerability. The impermeable surfaces on
of imbalances in the morpho-dynamic processes (Codignotto, 2009).
well drained soils lead them to a critical point and generate severe and
The urban growth rates considered for the previous scenario could in-
large impacts on populated sectors. The predictions of the complete
crease dramatically the coastal erosion. Average retreat rates of up to
urban occupation of the coastal fringe scenario indicated that the vul-
7 m per year have been determined in the Mar Chiquita district. They
nerability would increase drastically reaching unsustainable levels.

Fig. 5. Urbanized surface for the urban conurbation La Caleta-Mar de Cobo in the years 2003 (green shapes), 2009 (yellow shapes) and 2016 (red shapes). (For
interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

77
P.A. Garzo et al.
Fig. 6. A. Relative Residences Surface Area for the coastal resorts of the Mar
Chiquita District (2016). B. Coastal urban continuum scenario.
Land uses as recreational and nautical installations, forest crops and
country clubs, among others, seem to have caused no significant vul-
nerability changes in the study area up to now.
These results can be extrapolated to similar situations of intensive
agricultural, livestock activities and urban sprawl neighbouring bio-
sphere reserves located in coastal environments.
The provision of ecosystem services for coastal lagoons depends on
the preservation of their biophysical characteristics, their natural re-
sources, biodiversity, landscape and their interaction in marine-con-
tinental processes (Newton et al., 2014). Management strategies should
seek a balance between environmental and socio-economic well-being.
The LUC can be managed under an integrated approach not only
within the jurisdictional boundaries of the biosphere reserve but also
beyond them to include the whole drainage basin. Integrated man-
agement of coastal lagoons is the most useful tool to maintain the
provision of ecosystem services and prevent the LUC impacts, but it is
necessary to configure a regional vision of the coastal areas together
with their associated drainage basins.
In the case of Mar Chiquita, the diversity of economic activities such
as agricultural production and sea and sun tourism should be integrated
in a more general development pattern aiming to reduce impacts and
preserve the basin dynamics. This study provides an adequate baseline
for vulnerability modelling and prediction, which could support the
management decisions to maintain the ecosystem services and preserve
the touristic value of the lagoon.
78
Ocean and Coastal Management 170 (2019) 72–79
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge to A. Vuelta and Trad LCTI G. M. Dadon
for the language styling of the preliminary manuscripts; H. J. Walter
Eur Ing BSc CEng MICE MCIL and A. G. Walter Dip Trans MITI
(Nottingham, UK) for the language reviewing of the final version; the
three reviewers for their valuable suggestions; the financial support of
the Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina (UBACyT
20020130100622BA/2014-2017 and 20020170100337BA/2018-
2020).
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