Geohazards Assessment and Mapping of Some Balkan Countries

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Geohazards assessment and mapping of some

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Article in Natural Hazards · November 2012

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0185-6
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Geohazards assessment and mapping of
some Balkan countries
Betim Muço, Georgi Alexiev, Shyqyri

Aliaj, Zenun Elezi, Bogdan Grecu,
Neculai Mandrescu, Zoran Milutinovic,
Mircea Radulian, et al.
Natural Hazards
Journal of the International Society
for the Prevention and Mitigation of
Natural Hazards
ISSN 0921-030X
Nat Hazards
DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0185-6
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DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0185-6
ORIGINAL PAPER
Geohazards assessment and mapping of some Balkan

countries
Betim Muço • Georgi Alexiev • Shyqyri Aliaj • Zenun Elezi •
Bogdan Grecu • Neculai Mandrescu • Zoran Milutinovic •

Mircea Radulian • Boyko Ranguelov • Defrim Shkupi
Received: 29 June 2011 / Accepted: 3 April 2012

Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012
Abstract The assessment of geological hazard is a topic with significant interest for the
Balkans. During the last decade of twentieth century, most of the countries in the region
have embarked on the road of a hasty transitory period from totalitarian regimes to
democracy. Development of free market economy has given rise to uncontrolled move-
ment of people, fast construction of housing and facilities and unproportioned accumu-
lation of population around and in big cities. Besides Greece, an old member of European
Union, and two newcomers in the organization, Romania and Bulgaria, the other countries
are all hoping to enter the Union as faster as they can. Many different candidate or full-
fledged member country programs of European Community offer a lot of joint and cross-
border projects for constructing road infrastructure and facilities. As development accelerates
in the Balkans and given the intensive geohazard elements that this territory exhibits, it
B. Muço (&)
General Dynamics, IRIS Consultant, Rockville, MD, USA
e-mail: betmuco@gmail.com
G. Alexiev
Institute of Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria
S. Aliaj
Institute of Seismology, Academy of Sciences, Tirana, Albania
Z. Elezi
Seismological Institute, Prishtina, Kosovo
B. Grecu N. Mandrescu M. Radulian

National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest, Romania
Z. Milutinovic
Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology, Skopje, Macedonia
B. Ranguelov
Geophysical Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria
D. Shkupi
Albanian Association of Engineering Geology and Geoenvironment, Tirana, Albania
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becomes increasingly important to understand, study, and map these elements for being
aware of the damage to the total environment these hazards might cause. The geohazard
map and assessment of some Balkan countries has been carried out through two scientific
meetings in Ohrid, Macedonia, and Tirana, Albania during 2007. The map is compiled in
the Albanian Geological Survey, Tirana, Albania in the scale 1:1,000,000. As a base map,
we used the topographic map produced by VGI, formerly Yugoslavia mapping authorities.
As a seismic layer in our map, we used the values of peak ground acceleration obtained
from Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program. Two catalogs were constructed: The
first one that contains the crustal earthquakes (hypocentral depth within first 70 km) and
the second one that contains intermediate earthquakes (hypocentral depth below 70 km).
This work is largely based on previous studies and investigations by earth scientists and
specialists of each country comprised in this territory. In this respect, the map we con-
structed should be considered as a preliminary composite geohazard map with the possi-
bility to be enriched and added with other new elements and data in the future.
Keywords Geological hazards Seismic hazard Earthquakes Landslides

Man–man hazard Balkan
1 Introduction
Geohazards or geological hazards are events caused by geological features and processes
that present severe threats to humans, property and the natural and built environment.
Earthquakes, landslides, volcanoes, avalanches, and tsunamis are typical examples of such
events.
The Balkan Peninsula is an hazard prone area regarding these phenomena. It has the
most complicated tectonics in entire Europe. Some margins of large lithospheric plates as
Eurasia and Africa and more smaller units as Arabian plate, Adria microplate, etc. as well
as numerous active tectonic faults inland are responsible for stress accumulation producing
time to time an seismic activity in the form of devastating earthquakes that takes human
lives and causes many property losses in such a very high density of population area. The
first historically documented information in Balkan’s earthquakes dates back to sixth
century, BC. Many historical earthquakes destroyed different Balkan’s cities and towns. It
is well-known today that the Balkan Peninsula exhibits the highest seismic activity in the
whole western Eurasia. On the average, an M = 6.3 earthquake occurs every year in this
area. Only during last century, there were more than 80 disastrous earthquakes in Balkan
territory. Obviously, the seismic hazard is the highest and most dangerous on the geoha-
zards of the peninsula. Landslides have occurred throughout the peninsula. Other geoha-
zards like liquefaction processes, rockfalls, erosion, land subsidence and expanding soils
are also dangerous for the environment and human life and economy.
A hazard assessment is an analysis of the potential and past dangers posed by geological
hazards. The geohazard maps delineate causative source areas as well as the most vul-
nerable ones to specified natural hazards, with information on the areas of influence,
frequency, intensity, and expected impact.
The assessment of geological hazard is a topic with significant interest for the Balkans.
During the last decade of twentieth century, most of the countries in the region have
embarked on the road of a hasty transitory period from totalitarian regimes to democracy.
Development of free market economy has given rise to uncontrolled movement of people,
fast construction of housing and facilities and unproportioned accumulation of population
123
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around and in big cities. Besides Greece, an old member of European Union, and two
newcomers in the organization, Romania and Bulgaria, all the other countries are hoping to
enter the Union as faster as they can. Many different pre-admission or member country
programs of European Union offer a lot of joint and cross-border projects for constructing
road infrastructure and other facilities. As development accelerates in the Balkans and
given intensive geohazard elements that this territory exhibits, it becomes increasingly
important to understand, study, and map these elements for being aware of the damage to
the environment these hazards might cause.
2 Seismicity, tectonics, and geodynamics
Seismic hazard is the most prominent of geohazards in the Peninsula. Earthquakes belong
to the most devastating natural disasters having uncontrolled intensity and being still
unpredictable. The occurrence of strong earthquakes has been documented here since the
ancient time and civilizations. But in the time we live in, the rapid growth of the region’s
cities could make such disasters deadlier and more destructive.
Balkan Peninsula belongs to Alpine–Mediterranean seismic belt which passes from
Azores Islands through the Mediterranean region and Balkan eastward through Asia and
joins the Circum-Pacific Belt in the Malay Archipelago. The energy released in earth-
quakes from this belt is about 15 % of the world total (Fig. 1). The seismicity of the
Balkans is the highest in the Europe and is caused from multiple plate interactions in the
Aegean Sea and Adriatic Sea and complicated deep tectonics in Carpathians. In this zone,
the concept of plate tectonics is especially complicated from the presence of numerous
blocks and the release of stress through plastic deformation on a large part of the zone. The
region comprises relatively rigid blocks as Adriatic, some sectors of Alpine belt, Alps,
Carpathians, Balkan Mountains, Dinarides, Hellenides, the Hellenic Arc, and Anatolian
belt as well as internal basins as Tyrrhenian, Aegean, Pannonia and Black Sea (Fig. 2).
The most active part seismically here is Aegean and surrounding zone, where take place
Greece, Albania, Montenegro, Macedonia, South Bulgaria, and Western Turkey. Almost
every year in this part (34–43°N; 18–30°E), occurs at least one earthquake with M [ 6.5
(Papazachos 1988). Leaving apart the Hellenic Arc where African plate sinks under the
Eurasian plate in the subduction form, the other contact between these two plates and
especially that part starting where the western wing of Hellenic Arc already ends and
continuing with western coasts of Balkan peninsula is realized through Adria microplate.
This unit acts as a wedge between Apennines, Alps, and mountain range Dinarides–
Albanides–Hellenides. The origin of orogenic systems of western Balkan as well as those
systems surrounding on the north and west the Adriatic Sea is strongly connected with the
convergence between Eurasian and African plates. This process that has started on Upper
Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous, influenced the disappearance of the old ocean Tethys, situated
between two continental margins and whose remnants are today the ophiolites and abyssal
sediments shown up on the nappes of above-mentioned orogenic systems.
The Carpathians and the Dinarides are the eastward continuation of the European
Alpine thrust and fold belts. These are formed during the collision of the African prom-
ontory with Europe. The Dinarides are juxtaposed with the Alps along the present day Mid-
Hungarian fault zone (a former transform fault). The Dinarides represent an orogene of
opposite subduction polarity with respect to the Alps. The architecture of the Dinarides can
be traced into the Hellenides without difficulty. Both Dinarides and Hellenides consist of
thrust sheets that formed in Late Cretaceous to Cenozoic times and are built up of
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Fig. 1 Map of earthquake epicenters in central and southeastern Europe for the period from 342 BC to 1990
AD (after Shebalin et al. 1998). The size of the symbols indicates earthquake magnitude, the color indicates
the focal depth: shallow: 0–75 km (red), medium depth: 75–200 km (green). The brush line outlines the
front of Dinarides (DIN), Albanides (ALB), Carpathians (CARP), Balkans (BALK) and North Anatolian Fault
(NAF)
Fig. 2 Active processes in the Eastern Mediterranean (after Carminati et al. 2004, Papanikolaou et al. 2004)
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Adria-derived continental material and previously obducted ophiolites (Schmidt et al.

2010). The stable Adriatic (Apulian) platform is flanked to the east by the Dinarides–
Albanides which continue to the south into the Hellenides. They are produced from the
collision in the Tertiary between the Adriatic promontory and the Serbo–Macedonian–
Rhodope block(s). Here, orogenic activity began during the late Jurassic and persisted until
the Neogene (Cavazza and Wezel 2003).
The Sava zone of the Dinarides can be followed along strike all the way into the Izmir-
Ankara suture zone. In the Dinarides and Hellenides, parts of the ophiolites of the northern
branch of the Neotethys Ocean were abducted already during the latest Jurassic onto the
Adriatic margin (Western Vardar Ophiolitic Unit) and were subsequently involved in Late
Cretaceous to early Paleogene thrusting (Schmidt et al. 2010). Another major along strike
change concerns the southeastern continuation of the Carpatho–Balkan orogene, a Lower
Cretaceous orogene that is located in an upper plate position in respect to the Dinarides–
Hellenides. This east-verging older orogene tectonically overlies the Rhodopes and it is not
yet clear if it can be traced further to the southeast and into the so-called Circum-Rhodope
Belt. The Rhodopes also represent a part of the European margin and hence originally also
were northerly adjacent to the Meliata–Maliac–Vardar branch of Neotethys. However, in
contrast to the thrust sheets making up the Dacia Mega-Unit that overlie the Moesian plate,
the Rhodopes were subducted northward below Moesia and subsequently exhumed as a
huge core complex surrounded by normal faults (Schmidt et al. 2010).
Carpathian Mountains, a geologically young European mountain chain form the east-
ward continuation of the Alps. The Carpathian arc is the result of continental collision
during subduction of the European plate beneath a Pannonian continental block. The
Vrancea zone, a geographically restricted area within the bend region of the southeastern
Carpathian orogene, constitutes one of the most active seismic zones in Europe. The origin
of intermediate depth seismicity in the Vrancea zone of Romania continues to be a subject
of debate. Most authors consider that the Vrancea seismogenic body consists of oceanic
lithosphere, either resulting from detachment and lateral migration of an oceanic slab (e.g.,
Girbacea and Frisch 1998; Gvirtzman 2002), or subduction and lateral tearing of a slab
beneath the eastern edge of the Eastern Carpathians (e.g., Wenzel et al. 1998; Wortel and
Spakman 2000) (Fig. 3). An alternative model for Vrancea zone seismicity, involves active
continental lithospheric delamination, resulting from Miocene closure of an intra-conti-
nental basin and attendant lithospheric thickening (Knapp et al. 2005).
An updated overview of the geological and geophysical characteristics of the Mediter-
ranean region, including Balkan, by integrating new and pre-existing data on surface
geology, seismic profiles, and mantle tomography, both on land and at sea has been recently
realized through TRANSMED project (Cavazza et al. 2004). A good source of knowledge
on what happen under our earth is also a rapidly enlarged database of earthquake focal
mechanisms and stress field (Fig. 4). As inferred from GPS measurements, the greatest
movement (8–10 mm/year) occurs in central Adria between the Gargano zone and the
central Dinarides; there, the movement is northeast-oriented. The southeastern part of
Adria, along the coastline of Albania, moves 5–7 mm/year in an almost east–west direction,
and eastern Albania moves 6 mm/year in an east–southeast direction (Altiner et al. 2006).
3 Two characteristic fault zones with SW–NE directions
One aspect of active tectonism of Balkan is characterized by a narrow zone of shortening

almost perpendicular with Adriatic coastline that rapidly changes almost to E–W extension
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Fig. 3 a Seismicity in the Vrancea area recorded in the period 1996–2003. Black circles indicate seismicity
at depth \ 70 km. Blue and red circles are earthquake at depth [ 70 km. The joint hypocenter
determination from Radulian et al. (2007) reveals for earthquakes at depth [ 70 km the existence of a
vertical double seismic zone. Yellow stars mark the location of the October 27th, 2004 (Mw = 5.8) and the
September 27th, 2004 (Mw = 4.7) earthquake, respectively. Black line in the map indicates the location of
the depth profile of the inset. Orange line indicates the 500 m thickness isoline of Quaternary sediments in
the Focsani Basin (FB). Thin black lines are the borders of the foreland and the accretionary wedge. Fault
mapping and isoline of Quaternary deposit are from Matenco et al. (2007). TF Trotus Fault, IMF Intra-
Moesian Fault, PCF Peceneaga-Carmena Fault. b Topography and Moho layer and the isosurface of the
2.2 % p-wave velocity anomaly of the Vrancea area from the seismic tomography work by Martin et al.
(2006) (indicated in the right part of figure with blue dotted line). Spheres within the highvelocity body are
the earthquakes. Red spheres mark the location of the strong earthquakes. Beachballs of the focal
mechanism solutions are from map view; black indicates the compressional quadrant. Both figures are taken
by Heidbach et al. 2007
Fig. 4 a Spatial distribution of fault plane solutions from 1905 to 2003. b Horizontal projections of P and
T deformation axes, on a regular grid with meshof half a degree, derived from the sum of moment tensors
(Kostrov 1974) of earthquakes with depth \ 50 km (after Vannucci et al. 2004)
in central Albania and western Macedonia. In Eastern Macedonia and western Bulgaria,
there is an earlier extension by Middle Miocene. These regimes are connected with some
normal fault systems generating strong earthquakes.
Kroupnik fault in Bulgaria is a ENE–WSW- to NE–SW-striking fault which has
brought into contact basement rocks and the Neogene and Quaternary sediments that filled
the Simitli-Kroupnik basin. The fault is subdivided into two segments: an eastern one with
NE–SW (c. N45°) strike, which is exposed east of the Strouma River, throwing the
Neogene sediments against basement rocks; and a western one that strikes ENE–WSW
(N65–70°) and is mainly exposed west of the Strouma River, juxtaposing basement rocks
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Fig. 5 Generalized tectonic map of SW Bulgaria and neighboring Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia (F.Y.R.O.M.) indicating the large rupture zones and faults as compiled from Landsat satellite
imagery, geological maps (Marinova and Zagorchev 1990) and field observations. In the middle, the trace of
the Kochani–Kroupnik–Bansko rupture zone is shown on the Landsat imagery with white arrowheads. Ko.
F. Kochani fault, Kr. F. Kroupnik fault, Krs. F. Kresna fault, G-P. F Gradevo–Predela fault, B. F. Bansko
fault, Bl. F. Blagoevgrad fault, St. F. Stob fault, Do. F. Dobrovo fault, Sa. F. Saparevo fault, Ky. F.
Kyustendil fault (After Tranos et al. 2006)
and rocks as young as Holocene proluvial deposits. The latter fault, as traced by the
juxtaposition of the sediments against the basement rocks, appears to be shifted c. 200 m
toward the south, possibly as a result of NNW–SSE-striking faults that form the Strouma
River. (Tranos et al. 2006) (Fig. 5). The seismicity associated with the Kroupnik fault is
characterized as the highest in Bulgaria (Ranguelov et al. 2001).
The Vlora–Elbasani–Dibra (VED) transverse fault zone in Albania is a fragmentary
fault zone, crossing the Albanian orogene from SW to NE and represented by particular
strike-slips in the western domain of compressional regime and by separate normal faults
in the inner country domain of extensional regime. From seismotectonic point of view, this
fault system is the most powerful of all transversals in Albania. During the historical time
as well as recently, some of the largest earthquakes of the country has been occurred along
this fault system (Fig. 6). The earthquake of November 30, 1967 (M = 6.6) is the strongest
one generated by this fault in the period of instrumental data. This earthquake caused a
10 km long surface rupture appeared from Qafa Pervalla down to the village Sebishti in the
direction 40° NE. All along its length, the southeastern block dipped against the north-
western block. This rupture cuts across the Paleogen flysch deposits. At several spots, the
amplitude of vertical displacement of the rupture is as great as 50 cm. Diagonal fissures of
the dilatation type in limestone and sand deposits appearing in crosswise direction to this
fault were observed in some places (Sulstarova and Koçiaj 1980). The surface rupture
observed in the epicentral zone of November 30, 1967 earthquakes was normal fault with
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Fig. 6 The Vlora-Elbasani-Dibra (VED) transverse fault zone in Albania
small strike-slip dextral component; the strike direction of this fault is the same as the
extension of VED transversal fault. From the distribution of cumulative magnitudes and
seismic energy released from the earthquakes of Albania during twentieth century has been
concluded that the cumulative magnitude of VED zone is 6.5–6.75 and the seismic energy
released from 1.5 9 1020 to 2.4 9 1021 erg which in its upper bound represent the zones
with the highest seismic energy released in Albania (Muço 1998).
4 Case studies on seismicity
4.1 Albania
The seismicity of Albania is strongly connected with the contact between Adria and
Albanides orogene which is part of a broader collision between Eurasian and African
plates. This contact that probably takes effect through a continental type of collision
unceasingly accumulates deformations and propels the longitudinal tectonic faults bor-
dering it as well as transversal tectonic faults cutting it and penetrating to the interior of the
peninsula. Are precisely these continuous accumulations of tectonic deformations that
through active faults as the earthquake cradles give way to seismic energy release shaping
this way the seismicity of the country.
Given the classification of earthquakes according to their magnitudes (Hagiwara 1964;
Lee and Stewart 1981), the seismicity of Albania is characterized by an intensive seismic
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microactivity (1.0 \ M B 3.0), by many small earthquakes (3.0 \ M B 5.0) by rare

medium-sized earthquakes (5.0 \ M B 7) and very seldom by strong earthquakes
(M [ 7.0) (Muço 1988). Since III–II centuries B.C till our days, Albania has been stricken
by 55 strong earthquakes with intensities Io C VIII degree (MSK-64), from which 15 of
them have had the intensity Io C IX degree (MSK-64), according to historical record. In
more than 2000 years, 36 out of 55 of these earthquakes happened on nineteenth century.
This fact makes us believe that the number of disastrous earthquakes we report is
underestimated and other disastrous earthquakes are hidden on the depth of historical time.
There is reliable evidence that old town of Durres (Dyrrachium) has been stricken several
times by strong earthquakes that caused serious human and economic losses. From old
chronicles result that this town has been almost totally destroyed on the year 177 B.C, 334
or 345 A.C., 506, 1273, 1279, 1869, and 1870. The evidence for the earthquake of March
1273 says that the town with 25 thousand people of that time has been totally destroyed.
There were many casualties and the survived people left the town seeking for other living
places. After this earthquake, the importance of Durresi town as a port in Adriatic Sea has
been diminished. On the centuries III–II B.C., there are evidences that Apolonia, another
ancient town, has been stricken by strong earthquakes which caused large casualties and
damages. On the year 1153, the town of Butrinti (old Buthrot) on the south of Albania, has
been destroyed from a strong earthquake. Its traces could be finding even today on the
remnants of this old town. Other historical earthquakes with seismic intensity about 9 are
those of October 12, 1851 in Vlora, October 17, 1851 in Berati, the earthquakes of
February 1855 in Shkodra, the earthquake of October 10, 1865 in Tepelena, and the
earthquake of June 14, 1893 in Himara.
The era of instrumental seismology brought new evidence for Albanian earthquakes. On
June 1, 1905, a strong earthquake hit Shkodra and its surroundings. The magnitude of this
earthquake is estimated 6.6. This earthquake caused about 200 dead and about 500 injured
(Koçiaj and Sulstarova 1980). On February 18, 1911, a strong earthquake hit the region
around Ohrid lake. There were a lot of human casualties in Pogradeci and villages nearby
(Sulstarova and Koçiaj 1975). Other earthquakes with magnitude up to 6.0 during the
twentieth century were as follows: December 22, 1919 in Leskovik (southeast Albania),
November 26, 1920 in Tepelena, December 18, 1920 in Elbasani, March 30, 1921 in
Peshkopia, earthquake series of December 1926 in Durres, November 21, 1930 in Llogara
(south of Vlora), March 31, 1935 in Çermenika, August 1942 in Peshkopia, September 1,
1959 in Kuçi, Lushnje, May 26, 1960 in Korça, March 18, 1962 in Fieri, November 30,
1967 in Dibra, April 3, 1969 in Mallakastra, April 15, 1979 in Shkodra region (Montenegro
earthquake) which caused 35 casualties only in Albania (see Fig. 8).
From the study of depth distribution of earthquake foci of Albania, it is evidenced that
these foci are generally shallow, with depth at 10–20 km and in many cases till near the
surface. This is true for historical earthquakes as well as for instrumental ones. From the
records of Albanian Seismological Network for the period 1976–2000, 95 % of earth-
quakes have depths not exceeding 30 km. It bears witness that the seismicity of Albania is
characterized from dynamical processes that happen mainly in the earth crust, mostly in its
granitic part and very seldom in the upper part of the mantle (Muco et al. 2002a, b).
Analyzing the cumulative number of earthquakes with MS C 6.0 occurred in Albania
during two last centuries, 6 time intervals are evidenced where the seismic rate is alternated
from a lower to a higher value. On this basis, it is constructed a statistical sequential model
describing the seismic procedure of Albania in time. From this model, it is found that the
intervals of relatively low seismicity last 31–43 years and those of seismicity relatively
high, 17–21 years (Muço and Puka 1993).
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Three longitudinal and three transverse active fault zones are evidenced into the
Albanian orogene as follows: (1) the Ionian–Adriatic thrust fault Zone, NW up to nearly
NNW trending; (2) the Shkodra–Mati–Librazhdi graben fault Zone, NW trending; (3) the
Peshkopi–Korça graben fault Zone, N–S trending; (4) the Shkodra–Tropoja normal fault
Zone, NE trending; (5) the Elbasani–Dibra normal fault Zone, NE trending (Aliaj 2000;
Aliaj et al. 2001; Sulstarova and Aliaj 2001) and Vlora–Tepelena normal faulting, SEE
trending (Aliaj et al. 2010).
During last decade, the seismic hazard assessment of Albania has been carried out
through different techniques and methodologies (Muco et al. 2002a, b; Aliaj et al. 2004).
According to deterministic approach evaluation of seismic hazard of Albania, the DGA
(design ground acceleration) values for Albania are in the range of 68 to 311 cm/sec2. The
area with the largest values is a small one in the very south of Albania, at the border with
Greece (DGA over 300 cm/sec2). The second zone covers 80 % of Albanian territory
(DGA between 150 and 300 cm/sec2). The third zone (DGA between 80 and 150 cm/sec2)
is distributed throughout the Albanian territory, from north to south. The last zone is
continued in the northernmost part of Albania (DGA between 40 and 80 cm/sec2) (Muco
et al. 2002a, b). According to the last evaluation of seismic hazard using the probabilistic
analysis, the largest PGA (peak ground acceleration) values, rock site condition, for a
probability of 10 % of exceedance in 50 years (corresponding a 475 years return period),
are along the Adriatic-Ionian coastal earthquake belt going from 0.24 g in Southern
Albania to 0.25–0.30g from Vlora to Lezha towns, and up to 0.40g NW of Shkodra town,
along the Dalmatian coast; while in Eastern Albania the PGA values are 0.20–0.22g from
Ohrid Lake to Leskoviku town, and from Kukesi to Peshkopia districts; the highest values
of PGA 0.20–0–30g in Eastern Albania are along the Elbasani–Dibra–Tetova and Shko-
dra–Tropoja transversals. The lowest values of PGA 0.12–0.15g are in Moker, Mat-Mirdite
and Has-Gjakove areas, and 0.07–0.15g in northern extremity of the country from Ver-
moshi to Dukagjini areas (Aliaj et al. 2010).
4.2 Bulgaria
According to Christoskov et al. (2006), ‘‘the earthquake activity in Bulgaria is the most
apparent manifestation of contemporary geodynamics on its territory’’ (Boncev et al.
1982). Over the past centuries, Bulgaria has experienced many strong earthquakes. Some
of the Europe’s strongest earthquakes of twentieth century occurred in Bulgaria and
nearby. At the beginning of the twentieth century from 1901 to 1928, five earthquakes with
magnitudes larger than 7.0 occurred in or nearby the territory of Bulgaria.
The spatial pattern of seismicity in Bulgaria and adjacent areas is presented on Fig. 7.
This map shows that seismicity is not randomly distributed. Analyzing the seismicity and
seismotectonics of the central Balkans, it seems more appropriate that seismicity is dis-
tributed through seismic zones rather than through specific fault linear structures or three-
dimensional fault planes. The main seismic zones are as follows: Kresna, Sofia, Gorna
Orjahovica, Shabla, and Maritsa. They have their own specific tectonic, seismic, and
geological peculiarities. The first documented earthquake on the territory of Bulgaria is
about the third century BC. The quake occurred in the Black Sea near the town of Kavarna
(Fig. 7).
Historically, two relatively strong events have been mentioned in the 1818 (VIII–IX
MSK) and the 1858 (M & 6.5, I0 = IX MSK). These earthquakes occurred near the city of
Sofia. The 1858 earthquake caused heavy destructions to this city and to thermal springs in
its western part. The mineral spring near the city center disappeared for 2–3 days and then
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Fig. 7 The map of epicenters of earthquakes in Bulgaria
reappeared with higher water temperature. The felt aftershocks continued more than
108 days. The surface cracks and dislocations (normal faulting) and liquefaction have been
reported.
The most impressive seismic activity is exhibited in the SW Bulgaria (the Kresna zone)
during 1904–1906. The seismic sequence started on April 4, 1904 with two strong
earthquakes within 23 min (the first quake at 10 h 05 m with M = 7.1 considered as a
foreshock and the second one at 10 h 26 m with M = 7.8 and I0 = X-the main shock). The
main shock was felt far away and some eyewitnesses have seen waves on the surface in the
city of Sofia. The surface deformations (normal faulting) caused by the 1904 earthquake
still could be seen near the entrance of the Kresna gorge. This earthquake was followed by
a well-expressed long-lasting aftershock activity. Almost all secondary effects accompa-
nying such strong seismic events have been reported. At the present times, this zone is the
most active on the territory of the country, taking more than 80 % of the released seismic
energy during the last 20–30 years.
Two strong earthquakes occurred in the Northeast Bulgaria. The first one happened on
March 31, 1901 near the town of Shabla with epicenter in the Black Sea. The second one
occurred in the 1913 in the Gorna Oryahovitsa zone. This one destroyed the towns Veliko
Tarnovo and Gorna Oryahovitsa and a lot of villages in the region. Other strong earth-
quakes have been reported near the Shabla zone, some of them caused tsunamis, landslides,
and rockfalls. The most impressive one happened about third century BC and a Greek
colony, Bisone ‘‘sank in the sea’’, according Strabo (Ranguelov 2005). Along the Maritsa
valley (central part of Bulgaria), a sequence of three destructive earthquakes occurred in
1928. The towns Plovdiv, Chirpan, Parvomay suffered great damage. Many other towns
and villages were strongly affected. A total of 74,000 buildings were completely destroyed
and 114 people killed (see Fig. 8). The earthquakes caused two surface co-seismic ruptures
(normal faulting with a dextral component), each of them several tens of kilometers in
length. This is the one of few cases (mentioned by Charles Richter in his ‘‘Elementary
Seismology’’) when before and after a strong earthquake detailed geodetic surveys have
been performed. On some places, the ground displacement reached 1.5–2 m. However, no
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Fig. 8 (From upper left side in clockwise rotation): The earthquake of Vlora, Albania, 1851 (Photo—J.
Kozak collection); House damages near Gilani, Kosovo, the earthquake of April 24, 2002 (Photo—Z.
Elezaj); Hotel Slavija in Budva, Montenegro destroyed by earthquake of April 15, 1979 (Photo—Collection
of Seismic Observatory of Montenegro); Plovdiv, Bulgaria destroyed from the earthquake of April 18, 1928
(Photo—S.Nisimov); The Bucharesti earthquake of March 4, 1977 and The Skopje earthquake of July 26,
1963
such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928. The 1986 earthquake (with
magnitude 5.7) that occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitza)
is the strongest quake after 1928.
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From the analysis of the depth distribution, it was recognized that the earthquakes in
Bulgaria occurred in the Earth’s crust up to 45 km. The hypocenters are mainly located in
the upper crust, and only a few events are related to the lower crust. The maximum density
of seismic events involves the seismogenic layer between 5 and 25 km.
The fault plane solutions of these strong earthquakes show normal faulting in the region
and supporting the regional stress pattern on the Balkans (Papadimitriou et al. 2006.)
There are several seismic hazard maps prepared for Bulgaria during the years. These
started with the so-called statistical variant of seismic zoning of Bulgaria. The map of the
maximal observed intensity Imax have played the role of seismic zoning map and reflects
earthquake activity exhibited up to that time (Kovachev et al. 1997). The statistical variant
does not offer any evaluation of the locations of earthquake source zones neither the
recurrence period of the impacts with a definite intensity.
In the seismic zoning maps produced later on (see Medvedev 1968; Riznichenko 1976;
Shebalin et al. 1974; Algermissen et al. 1976; Bune and Gorskov 1980; Drumea et al. 1975;
Boncev et al. 1982), the above shortcomings are gradually removed. The final result is a
map of the possible source zones (PSZ) of future earthquakes and shakeability maps
according different recurrence periods (Geological Hazards in Bulgaria 1994).
4.3 Kosovo
The territory of Kosovo exhibits a moderate seismicity. The main seismogenic zones that
are responsible for seismic activity generation are the following: (1) Seismogenic zone
Prizren-Peja, with maximal magnitude of 6.6; (2) Seismogenic zone Ferizaj–Viti–Gilan,
with maximum magnitude 6.1 and (3) seismogenic zone of Kopaonik with maximum
magnitude of 6.0 (Sulstarova and Aliaj 2001; Elezaj 2002).
The most strong earthquakes occurred in Kosovo are as follows: the earthquake of
Prizreni of June 14, 1456, with magnitude 6.6 and intensity on the epicenter IX (MCS); the
Peja earthquake of November 11, 1662, with magnitude 6.0 and intensity VIII (MCS);
Ferizaj earthquake of February 26, 1755, with magnitude 6.1 and intensity IX (MSK-64);
the earthquake of Ferizaj-Viti of August 10, 1921 with magnitude of 6.1 and intensity IX
(MCS); and the earthquake of Kapaonik of May 18, 1980, with magnitude of 6.0 and
intensity VIII (MCS) (Orana et al. 1985). The most recent damaging earthquake was in
April 24, 2002 at Gilani (see Fig. 8).
4.4 Macedonia
The territory of Macedonia is situated in an area of high seismicity. In the seismic history
of Macedonia, the Vardar zone appears as a region where earthquakes occur quite fre-
quently, and the Skopje region is considered to be the most mobile part of the Vardar zone.
The seismicity of Macedonia is related to tectonic processes associated primarily with
vertical movement of tectonic blocks. Two regions of specific neotectonic features are well
distinguished: West Macedonia, characterized by longitudinal (NE–SE), and Central and
East Macedonia with transverse (E W) stretching of principal tectonic morphostructures.
The boundary between these two regions is consisted by relatively stable Pelagonian
massif.
Earthquakes of magnitudes 6.0 to 7.8 from ten seismic zones have been historically
experienced throughout the country. The strongest earthquakes occurred in Pehcevo-
Kresna (1904, M = 7.8) and Valandovo-Dojran (1931, M = 6.7) seismic zones. During
the last 100 years few destructive earthquakes stroke the country.
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Moderate scale earthquakes (M \ 6.0) can cause serious problems, even devastation, in
Macedonia and the rural regions in the vicinity of the city of Skopje, since the traditional
houses, particularly in the rural areas, are too weak to sustain them without substantial
damage. Earthquakes of magnitudes greater than 6.0 on the Richter scale are rather
infrequent. However, when they occur, due to the structural weakness of prevailing tra-
ditional urban and rural building typology constructed prior to 1964, a widespread dev-
astation might be expected. The earthquakes with magnitudes M = 6.9–7.9 expected from
the Pehcevo-Kresna and Valandovo-Dojran seismic zones will be catastrophic not only for
Macedonia, but also for a large part of Balkan region (Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia).
Although the seismic history of Macedonia must have been rich with the occurrence of
medium-to-strong earthquakes, there is very incomplete documentation on these phe-
nomena until 1905 when the Seismological Institute of Belgrade was founded. Prior to
1900, the seismic history of Skopje, as part of the Vardar seismic zone, is practically
reduced to a rather brief description of the earthquake catastrophes of Scupi in 518 A.D.
and that of Skopje in 1555. The old Scupi was situated about 4–5 km northwest of the
center of the present Skopje. As ground fissures extending over 45 km in length and up to
4 m in width are reported for this earthquake, it seems that it is the strongest shock that has
ever occurred in Macedonia. The earthquake of 1555 is said to have demolished a part of
Skopje. Both earthquakes are estimated to be of an intensity of XII MCS (catalogs of the
Seismological Institute of Belgrade). However, most probably the reported values are
overestimated.
During this century, the region of Skopje was affected by a series of damaging earth-
quakes, centered at the village of Mirkovci (42°060 N, 21°240 E), which lasted from August
to September 1921 with a magnitude of 4.6 to 5.1 and intensity of I = VIl–VIlI degrees
MCS scale. Besides the local earthquakes, the region of Skopje has suffered several times
from relatively distant earthquakes, for example, from the Urosevac-Gnjilane region in
southern Serbia, like in 1921.
From the 1963 earthquake (M = 6.1, I = lX–X MCS), the city of Skopje was devas-
tated. About 77.4 % of total building area (including dwelling houses) was destroyed or
heavily damaged and 75.5 % of inhabitants were left homeless. The direct economic losses
were estimated at 1 billion 1963 US$, or at 15 % of the GNP of former Yugoslavia for the
year of 1963 (see Fig. 8).
The seismicity analysis based in intensities indicates that only in this century the entire
territory of Macedonia have been exposed to intensities larger than VI, 97.8 % to inten-
sities equal or larger than VII, 52.2 % to intensities equal or larger than VIII, 14.0 % to
intensities equal or larger than IX, and 3,9 % to intensities equal or larger than X (MCS).
4.5 Montenegro
Montenegro lies in a seismically active zone and earthquakes are common there. The
earliest earthquake located by the catalogs in Montenegro coast is in 1559, and from that
moment on and through the eighteenth century, damaging earthquakes in the Eastern
Adriatic seem to cluster around both Dubrovnik (1667) and Kotor (Albini 2004). The
earthquake of June 13, 1563 with magnitude 6.1 destroyed Kotor. Others historic
destructive earthquake are that of September 21, 1780, M = 6.5; the earthquake of
December 12, 1853, M = 5.7; the earthquake of June 4, 1876, M = 6.3.
Seismic activity on the Montenegro territory and neighboring areas during twentieth
century has been characterized by very large earthquake intensities. During this period,
several strong and very strong earthquakes occurred in the territory of Montenegro. The
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strongest of those earthquakes is that of April 15, 1979. The magnitude of this earthquake
was 7.0 Richter scale. The whole Montenegrin coastal area during this earthquake was
shocked by the intensity of IX degree Mercally scale. This earthquake took 101 lives in the
Montenegro and 35 in Albania. Furthermore, it has destroyed a huge part of the Monte-
negro hotel capacity, and also a great number of apartment buildings (Montenegro
Seismological Observatory, http://www.seismo.cg.yu) (see Fig. 8).
4.6 Romania
The seismic activity in Romania is concentrated at the sharp bend of the SE Carpathians, at
the contact between Carpathians orogene and East-European and Moesian platforms. The
seismic energy is released particularly at intermediate depths (60–180 km) beneath
Vrancea region, in a vertical high-velocity body. The seismicity is extremely concentrated
in space and follows specific alignments (e.g., Oncescu and Bonjer 1997; Bonjer et al.
2000). The focal mechanisms show a dominant extension on vertical direction and a
dominant compression on horizontal direction (e.g., Enescu 1980; Enescu and Zugrăvescu
1990; Oncescu and Trifu 1987; Radulian et al. 2000). These features, as well as the unusual
high rate of deformation in the seismogenic volume (6.3 9 10-15 s-1; Wenzel et al. 1998),
prove that the subducting slab is still mechanically coupled to the upper lithosphere while
being strongly pulled down by gravitational forces (Sperner et al. 2001).
The geometrical configuration of the hypocenters shows an elongation along NE–SW
direction, close to a planar distribution. Earthquake generation is persistent in time (around
15 events/month with M greater than 3 and around 3 events/century with M greater than 7)
with predominant focal mechanism.
The crustal seismicity in the Carpathians foredeep region is clustered in the vicinity of
the SE Carpathians bending zone and along the major faults which cross the Moesian
Platform from SE to NW (Intramoesian Fault, Peceneaga-Camena Fault, Sf. Gheorghe
Fault, and Trotuş Fault). The earthquakes generated here are of small and moderate size
(less than 5.5 magnitude) and frequently occur in sequences. Other significant seismic
areas are located in the Southern Carpathians (maximum observed magnitude 6.5), in the
western part of Romania (Banat region) with earthquakes below 6 magnitude, but gen-
erated in the shallow crust (*10 km) and Crişana-Maramureş, at the border with Hungary
and Ukraine, and in the southeastern part of Romania, at the border with Bulgaria (Shabla
zone), where an shock of magnitude above 7 occurred in 1901.
5 Other geohazards
Other geohazards present in the Balkans are landslides, rockfalls, erosion, liquefaction.
Some of those are connected with each other.
5.1 Landslides
Landslides result when the driving forces that act on a slope (i.e., the weight of the slope
material, and the weight of objects placed on it) are greater than the slope’s natural
resisting forces (i.e., the shear strength of the slope material). Slope instability may result
from natural processes, such as the erosion of the toe of a slope by a stream, or by ground
shaking caused by an earthquake. Slopes can also be modified artificially by grading, or by
the addition of water or structures to a slope. Development that occurs on a slope can
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substantially increase the frequency and extent of potential slope stability hazards. Areas
susceptible to landslides are typically characterized by steep, unstable slopes in weak
soil/bedrock units which have a record of previous slope failure. There are numerous
factors that effects the stability of the slope, including: slope height and steepness, type of
materials, material strength, structural geologic relationships, ground water level, and level
of seismic shaking.
5.2 Liquefaction
Liquefaction is defined as the sudden loss of soil strength due to a rapid increase in soil
pore water pressures resulting from seismic ground shaking. Liquefaction potential is
dependent on such factors as soil type, depth to ground water, degree of seismic shaking,
and the relative density of the soil. When liquefaction of the soil occurs, buildings and
other objects on the ground surface may tilt or sink, and lightweight buried structures (such
as pipelines) may float toward the ground surface. Liquefied soil may be unable to support
its own weight or that of structures, which could result in loss of foundation bearing or
differential settlement. Liquefaction may also result in cracks in the ground surface fol-
lowed by the emergence of a sand–water mixture.
5.3 Land subsidence
Land subsidence can result from fluid (e.g., groundwater, petroleum) withdrawal in weakly
consolidated materials or rapid sedimentation or oxidation of organic-rich soil The loss of
fluid causes consolidation of the empty pore spaces, which means that any voids in the soil
previously filled with fluid are compressed by the mass of the overlying materials,
effectively decreasing the soil volume and resulting in land subsidence.
5.4 Rockfalls
Rockfalls are the among the most common landslide types in mountain areas. These
phenomena can be triggered by earthquakes, rainfall or freeze and thaw cycles or the
progressive weathering of rock material and discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions
and root growth or leverage by roots moving in high winds. Rockfalls are a major hazard in
rock cuts for highways and railways in mountainous terrain.
5.5 Soil erosion
Soil erosion is the removal of soil by water and wind. The rate of erosion is estimated from
four soil properties: texture, organic matter content, soil structure, and permeability data.
Other factors that influence erosion potential include the amount of rainfall and wind, the
length and steepness of the slope, and the amount and type of vegetative cover.
5.6 Expansive soils
Expansive soils are soils and soft rocks that tend to swell or shrink due to changes in
moisture content. Changes in soil volume present a hazard mainly to structures build on top
of these expansive soils. The most extensive damage occurs to highways and roads.
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5.7 Case studies
Landslides in Albania are developed near or above active neotectonic faults. Almost all
known types of landslides are distinguished there. They are observed almost in all regions
of Albania. They are exhibited mainly in Quaternary deposits covering all kinds of sedi-
ments, but they are more present in the soft deposits. In some urban areas, the landslides
have caused great damages, destroying the houses, the roads, etc. (Shkupi and Muco 1998).
They are also developed along rivers basins, Adriatic Sea and Ionian Sea coastlines. In the
Albanian map of geohazards are represented 46 zones, with intensive landslides, from the
North to the South of Albania (see Fig. 9). The most important are those of Mokra region,
Moglica region, Borsh–Sasaj region that are populated areas (Shkupi et al. 2005). There are
three characteristics for estimation of landslide hazard in Albania: degree of the conse-
quence, frequency of occurrence and possibilities for preventing or decreasing of the
impact. The landslides are subdivided into three groups: shallow, deep relatively stabilized
and deep with recurrent activation of partial sites.
The deformations and the destructions caused by rock burst, water split of the ground
water and of saturated soils and clay swelling are observed in some mines. These under-
ground processes and phenomena influence also the general geological hazards of the
country.
The Albanian Adriatic coastline is dominated by sea wave actions and filled by
abundant sediment supplied by rivers coming from the interior of the country. Two large
lagoons, Karavasta and Narta exhibit differential subsidence which is regarded as neo-
tectonic in origin. During the last 1,000–2,000 years is indicated a subsidence 5–10 m
(Mathers et al. 1999).
Even the neotectonic evolution of Albania is characterized by a general uplift beginning
after Pliocene, the subsidence locally occurred contributed to the formation of graben-
shaped Quaternary lakes and plains. These Quaternary subsidence graben structures are
created by local or regional extension and graben-like structures are formed under a
compressional regime (Aliaj et al. 2001).
The physical–geological phenomena accompanying in many cases earthquakes are a
very important factor to be considered on hazard analysis of a country. Such phenomena
are evidenced during strong earthquakes in Albania, especially on the Western Lowland of
Albania (Aliaj et al. 2001; Dibra 1983; Koçiaj and Sulstarova 1980; Koçiaj et al. 1990;
Lubonja et al. 1962; Sulstarova et al. 1980; Shehu and Dhima 1983, Konomi and Hoxha
2004). Some ground phenomena accompanying the earthquake of Shkodra of June 1905
(MS = 6.6; Io = IX degrees) were evidenced on a very broad space on both sides of Buna
River (Koçiaj et al. 1980) and these phenomena were repeated on the same zone from the
earthquake of April 15, 1979 (MS = 6.9, Io = IX–X degrees). The same phenomena are
observed during the earthquakes of December 27, 1926 near Durres; August 17, 1948 at
Trush, Shkoder; September 1, 1959, at Kuç, Lushnje; March 18, 1962, at Fieri e Vlora.
Intensive subsidence of ground, landslides and ground fissures with length 50–250 m and
width 40–50 cm, accompanied by water and sand fountains, sand pseudo-volcanoes with
diameter up to 1 m and subsidence of river banks of Drini and Buna Rivers have widely
occurred during the earthquake of April 15, 1979 with epicenter in Montenegro coast (see
Fig. 9).
The erosion is largely distributed regarding the existing natural geographic conditions of
Albania. The regions of medium and strong surface erosion cover 25 % of the country’s
territory. The most strongly affected areas are the regions constructed by soft rocks and
along the rivers and the Adriatic and Ionian shoreline. The lateral river erosion is most
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Fig. 9 (From upper left in clockwise rotation): A home damaged from landslide in the village Jelovjane,
70 km west of Skopje, Macedonia (Photo—O. Teofilovski); Large complex landslide in the Buzau
Subcarpathians, Romania (Photo—D. Balteanu); Landslide near Vlora, Albania (Photo—D. Shkupi); The
road Prishtina-Skopje, Kosovo covered by a landslide; Large complex landslide, Tega village in the Buzau
Subcarpathians, Romania (Photo—D. Balteanu) and Landslide view at Simitli graben, Rodope Mountain,
Bulgaria (Photo—N. Dobrev)
distinct along all rivers banks. The injuring impacts caused by erosion are as follows: The
destruction of soils and the destruction of arable lands, the activation of the landslides, rock
falls, etc. The sea erosion affects almost totally the Ionian Sea coast and half of Adriatic
Sea coasts. This kind of erosion dominates from Saranda until Karaburuni peninsula
(Ionian Coasts) and in the Adriatic sea coasts is more developed in Semani region, Karpen
(Kavaje), Porto-Romano (Durres), Ishmi region, Patok (North of the mouth of Mati river)
(see Fig. 10). The erosion is increased during the storms. The consequences are as follows:
the activation of old landslides and the appearance of the new ones, the exciting of the rock
falls, and the destruction of the protective system constructed along all the shoreline
(Shkupi et al. 2005).
Landslides are one of the major unfavorable phenomena which pose a potential geo-
morphological threat in Bulgaria. They have been studied from different theoretical and
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Fig. 10 (From upper left side in clockwise rotation): Cracks and sandblow material, earthquake of
November 10, 1940, Romania (Photo—N.Mandrescu collection); Liquefaction effect in Mushani, Albania,
earthquake of April 15, 1979 (Photo—B. Muco); Land subsidence along the Buna River, Albania,
earthquake of Apriul 15, 1979 (Photo—B. Muco) and Cracks and sandblow material, earthquake of
November 10, 1940, Romania (Photo—N.Mandrescu collection)
regional aspect. The general conclusion is that there is still much to be done with regard to
slope escarpment stabilization. Landslides are unevenly distributed in Bulgaria. More than
920 ones have been recorded up to now in 350 settlements, covering a total area of 200,000
decares. They are observed mostly along the Danube shoreline in North Bulgaria where 10
catastrophic landslides have occurred for the last 30 years. They are also found along the
Northern Black Sea coast and in Lower Cretaceous sediments of the Fore-Balkan river
banks. Most of the landslides in South Bulgaria are developed in Tertiary basins (Sofia and
Pernik valleys, East Maritsa coal basin), in Rila and Rhodope fault zones, on the mountain
river valley slopes and on the lava flow peripheries in the Eastern Rhodopes (see Fig. 9).
On the territory of Bulgaria, there are two groups of landslides that are subdivided into
shallow and deep with recurrent activation of isolated parts. All groups are shown on the
map. The shallow landslides are the most numerous. Their area is up to 2–3 9 103 m2 and
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the depth varies from 2 to 6–8 m. They are developed on the river valley slopes and are
activated by rainfalls, erosion and technogenic activity.
The landslides of the above-mentioned two groups are extremely dangerous. The depth
of the sliding surface is roughly down to 40–50 m and the area is several thousands of m2.
They are observed in the region of Lom Depression, along the Danube and the Black Sea
coastline, in the East Maritsa coal basin, along the valleys of Struma, Mesta, Arda, Vacha,
Kamchia, Yantra, etc. They are comparatively easily activated by erosion, abrasion, slight
seismic forces, and technogenic impact. Their hazard is potential.
Rockfalls are observed primarily on steep or vertical mountain slopes which have
specific lithological structure and physical properties of the constituent rocks. Most of the
dangerous rockfalls are bound up with deeply cut, transverse gorges, troughs and canyons.
The declining slope stability and the size of the fragmented rock blocks are associated with
the rainfall periods, with the sudden earthquakes and with the gravitation. Rockfalls are
established on the marginal escarpments of Northeast Bulgaria’s plateaus (including the
Black Sea coast), the East Rhodope Mountains, the high mountain zones of the Rila and
Rhodope massif and the Western Stara Planina. There are especially good conditions for
rockfalls in almost all gorges (Alexiev 1993).
The complex geographical conditions and the diverse hydro-climatic characteristics in
Bulgaria favor the present-day development of widespread and spatially differentiated
processes of erosion and accumulation. Their genetic relationship and dominant role in
recent morphogenesis have left a marked imprint not only upon the relief transformations
but also upon the whole physical geographical complex.
The erosion is widely distributed under the existing natural geographic conditions of the
country. The regions of strong surface erosion cover about 20 % of the country’s territory.
The Eastern Rhodopes, the high parts of Rila and Pirin, Ograzhden, Vlakhina, Kraishte,
etc. are the most heavily affected areas. The deep linear erosion (ravine formation) with
high intensity and density of about 4 km per 1 km2 can be seen in the Eastern Rhodope
region, in Ograzhden, at the foot of the Rila and Pirin mountains, Kraishte, etc. It is quite
obviously that lateral river erosion is most distinct along the Danube, Lom, Archar, Ogosta,
Iskar, Vit, Osam and Yantra river bank. The injuring impacts caused by erosion are as
follows: destruction of fertile land, activation of landslides, rockfalls, etc. (see Fig. 11).
Bulgarian Black Sea coast represents a strip of Bulgaria’s territory where the abrasion
processes are most extensive and their effects are sometimes dangerous. They affect 72 %
of the coastal zone. It has been established that the abrasion cliffs on the Bulgarian coast
are 271 long. Sea abrasion dominates the Dobrudja and Strahdja shorelines.
Most powerful is the mechanical erosive work on the coast under the influence of extreme
conditions in the Black Sea basin, associated with the synoptic situation. The strong north-
eastern winds with velocity of 10 m/s and duration of more than 80 h or winds with velocity
of 14 m/s and duration of over 50 h most often generate storm processes. Most of the
accumulated marine energy is counterbalanced near the coast in the form of devastating
destruction. In such extreme conditions, the persistent and hazardous abrasion processes
surpass the critical threshold and initiate extreme risk-related mass movements. For the last
50 years, the storm-induced surfs, breaking against the Bulgarian Black Sea coast, were most
severe on October 16–19, 1976, January 17–18, 1977, February 17–19, 1979 and January
5–11, 1981. During the aforesaid periods, the sea level rose by 1.50 m on the average.
These storm-induced processes made the coastal cliff to the north of Shabla promontory
recede by 3–10 m inland, which was largely facilitated by the widespread loess deposits.
About 40–50 decares of arable fertile land was lost and the loess material that fell and was
devoured by the sea was estimated at 250,000 m3.
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Fig. 11 (From upper left side in clockwise rotation): Land erosion in Bulgaria (Photo—N. Dobrev); Soil
degradation at Central Macedonia; Sea erosion at Adriatik See, Albania (Photo—D. Shkupi); Sea erosion at
Mamaia, Black Sea, Romania; The road Sofia-Thessaloniki, Bulgaria disrupted by debris flows (Photo—N.
Dobrev) and Erosion of soil and land subsidence caused from salt mines in Durgau-Valea Sarata, Romania
Simultaneously with the abrasion of bedrock during storm processes in this region, the
sands from the adjacent areas of accumulation have been washed out and re-deposited.
Roughly about 800,000 m3 of earth mass from the coastal cliff was removed seaward at the
time of storms. The disaster-related losses have exceeded 10 million US dollars.
In recent years, the detailed complex investigations made possible drawing a map of all
the erosion and abrasive processes for the Bulgarian part of the Black Sea coast. It has
served as a basis to build coastal defenses, conformable to the natural conditions, which
help to reduce the abrasion.
Intense abrasion–accumulation processes are observed in many large, mid-sized, and
small reservoirs throughout the country. The reservoirs’ sides are being eroded (abrasion
wash-out, formation of different in size notches, terraces, cliffs, local earth-falls and
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landslides are common there), owing to which the reservoirs are significantly extending
their area.
Land subsidence is a process related to loess deposits. It occurs primarily in North
Bulgaria (12,000 km2) where the earth masses are unconsolidated and structurally unsta-
ble. The potential and active collapses are associated with the sandy and classic loess type
(2). The subsidence can reach down to 80–100 cm and the subsiding areas are about
40–50 m wide and 100–300 m long. The regions under thick loess cover are characterized
by highly developed industrial and transport infrastructure and farming. In almost all big
towns, lying upon loess terrains, the foundations of housing buildings, industrial enter-
prises and transport network are potentially threatened by deformation. The availability of
hydromeliorative facilities additionally promotes land subsidence. The economic damages,
resulting from loess terrains’ subsidence, are considerable. Reliable engineering and
geological surveys should precede the construction activities on subsiding areas.
Regarding to clay swelling, potentially threatened by swelling are the clays in regions
with dispersion soils which increase their bulk when they interact with water and solutions.
In Bulgaria, this phenomenon is common in regions, occupied by Holocene smolnitza and
bog soils–for example, in the vicinity of Lom, Sofia, Pernik, Chirpan, Bourgas, etc. Some
Pliocene and Oligocene clays (in the districts of Lom and Pernik) also increase their bulk.
The economic losses in the country, caused by bulk deformations of clays, underlying
settlement and transport network, are impressive.
Potentially threatened by water saturation are the fine-grained and loose lagoon, lake,
delta and river deposits, which are basically accumulated in the alluvial lowlands of Upper
Thracia, Bourgas, Vidin, Kozlodui, Chernopol, Svishtov-Belene and Brashlyan as well as
in the wide flood terraces of the big rivers Iskar, Osam, Vit, Yantra, Kamchia, Maritsa,
Toundja, Strouma, etc. The processes of water saturation are mainly due to seismic activity
and quite seldom to human impact (drillings, underground constructions).
The nature of the geodynamic processes suggests that most of them, caused by natural
factors, are also influenced by human activities. Landslides and rockfalls appear when the slope
equilibrium is disturbed by the open-pit mines or by excavation and piling of materials needed
for the building of roads, railways, hydro-engineering facilities, industrial capacities, etc. Man’s
activity has profoundly changed the regime of ground water in the urban areas which leads to
flooding the underground infrastructure, to deterioration of the sanitary conditions, to greater
difficulties when the foundations of buildings or other physical structures have to be laid, to
diminishing the carrying capacities of the earth surface, to increasing the risk of loess subsi-
dence. The open-pit mining damages fertile land disturbs the landscape and worsens the
environment parameters. The open-pit mining only within the East Maritsa coal field has
affected about 130,000 decares of fertile land. Similar re-deposited solid industrial wastes are
dumped and accumulated in the industrial regions of the country—the Devnya valley, Bourgas
Lowland, Pernishki and Bobovdolski coal fields and the Central Srednogorie. They themselves
do not pose a direct risk but enable the development and activation of hazardous geodynamic
processes: erosion, abrasion, landslides, etc. This in turn prevents from reliable prediction of the
risk phenomena associated with the man-induced relief transformation. About 393,000 decares
of land, fit for agricultural and building activities, has been spoilt. The man-made landscape,
having emerged around the water basins and settlements, is a permanent source of soil, air and
water pollution and cause significant damages to tourist industry.
In the regions of extractive industries, there is a rapid compaction and subsidence of the
earth. The result is deformations of buildings and other physical structures and water-
logging of the depressions. The main cause for the described phenomenon is assumed to be
the disturbed rock stability in the post-mining landscapes.
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Considerable subsidence of the terrains is most frequently observed when coal mining
operations reach down to 100 m in depth, for example, in Pernishki, Bobovdolski, West
Maritsa, Chernomorski coal fields and in Obrochishte ore-mine. Step-like subsidence,
proportionate to the thickness of the removed coal layer, occurs. Construction and farming
on such areas are allowed only after the deformation ceases (at least one year since
the beginning of the process). In case of coal exploitation at a depth greater than 100 m, the
earth surface subsides more smoothly. These processes are unfavorable primarily for the
construction of houses, industrial enterprises and various facilities. Similar subsidence
occurs over the sub-surface mines in Pernishki, Bobovdolski, West Maritsa, Chernomorski
and some other coal fields. Besides, potentially hazardous is the local subsidence of earth
masses due to sub-surface method of ore mining in Madan, Roudozem, Osogovo, etc.
More substantial deformations of the earth surface, resulting in material losses, have
been recorded in Pernik, Malko Tarnovo and Provadia. It is worth mentioning the earth
subsidence in 1991 and 1992 around the Koshava quarry, Vidin district, where gypsum
deposits were obtained. The occurrence of subsidence in mines and quarries in the con-
ditions of seismic inactivity gives grounds to believe that during active seismic events
especially in close proximity to the earthquake foci, these adverse processes can be sud-
denly triggered off and can be more destructive. Similar unfavorable subsidence of the
terrain can be associated with regions of intensive ground water drawing. However,
Bulgaria has not experienced so far significant deformations of the sort (Alexiev 1993).
Romania represents one of the most affected countries by landslides in Europe (Bal-
teanu et al. 2009). Although, favorable conditions for triggering landslides are spread over
about 42 % of Romania’s territory, their frequency and amplitude are highest on an area of
about 9,000 km2 (Tufescu 1966). The regions of high slide frequency include the sedi-
mentary formations rich in clay and marl which are strongly fragmented. In these zones,
over 50 % of the slope surface are susceptible to landslides and mud flows. They mostly
occur in the Moldavian and Transylvanian tablelands, in the Sub Carpathian as well as in
the zone of the paleogene flish. The landslides may be simple, shallow or complex,
affecting thick deposits (Figs. 9, 12).
In the Moldavian Tableland differentiations occur from one sector to another, on
account of rock and structure variation. Thus, in the Suceava zone and in the Central
Moldavian Tableland, besides old slides upon which many reactivations occurred, other
slides are noted, usually located along cuestas. Owing to the predominance of marl loam
facies, the slide process in the Jijia-Bahlui area is highly active and involves the whole of
the deforested slopes. In the Tutova Collines and in the Lohan, Fălciu, and Huşi hills,
shallow and superficial slides are frequent, filling up in most cases the river beds.
The Transylvanian Tableland is marked by the frequency of old massive slides, with
present reactivations, developing on Sarmaţian formations. The more extensive are the
consequent slides; the insequent ones are deeper and possess several steps and monticles.
In the Târnave Tableland, the cuesta fronts and catchment basins of torrential valleys are
the sectors the most affected by slides, with variable depths.
The Sub-Carpathians and the mountain tops in the Paleogene flysch area are nowadays
the zones where the slides and mud flows occur most intensively. The slides are simple,
superficial, shallow of linear and furrow type. Periods of intense humectation also induce
the formation of mud torrents on certain slide deluviums.
For obtaining a landslide hazard map, a method of Landslide Hazard Index (LHI) has
been applied based on quantitatively defined weighted values (Balteanu et al. 2009).
According to this study, ‘‘no hazard’’ class represents around 39 % of Romania (plains and
low hills), ‘‘low hazard’’ 10 %. ‘medium hazard’ 38.3 % and ‘‘high’’ and ‘‘very high’’
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Nat Hazards
Fig. 12 a Map of landslide and mud flow hazard for Romania, b Map of landslide, rockfalls, and
liquefaction hazard for Macedonia
hazard classes comprise around 10 % of territory (mostly in the Subcarpathian region)

(Balteanu et al. 2009).
Zones in which expanding clays appear were also delimited on the geohazard map
(Popescu 1979).
Increasing levels of water content and/or pore water pressure reduce the shear strength
of the sediments, whose rheological behavior may consequently pass from semi-brittle,
over (hydro) plastic, to viscous or liquid-like. The transformation into a liquid state of fully
saturated sands can occur as fluidization, characterized by a continuous flow of fluid
through the sediment, or as liquefaction, which originates when the pore water pressure
rises to the level of the overburden pressure, so that stress is transferred from the grain
contacts to the pore water and the grains become temporarily dispersed (Finn and Liam
1972; Ishihara 1972; Seed and Idriss 1971; Sherif and Ishibashi 1976; Youd 1978). When
the grains settle again, the restored grain packing is commonly tighter than before; the
excess pore water is expelled and may cause fluidization and sand intrusions, also known
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as sand blows, in overlying, more or less impermeable layers. Liquefaction may originate
statically, in a sand layer sealed by an impermeable cap (artesian conditions), but also
dynamically, e.g., by shear waves released during strong earthquakes, generating cyclic
shear stresses that lead to the gradual build-up of pore water pressure in loose surficial
deposits. In the case of saturated sand deposits, the compaction yielded by seismic shaking
may determine the settlement or tilting of bearing structures. The strength that sand can
mobilize to resist shearing along a given plane depends on the effective or inter-granular
pressure on the plane and the effective coefficient of friction. The pore water pressure may
increase either because of the rapid rising of the hydrostatic level (which modifies the static
pressure conditions) or because of natural or artificial vibrations.
The experimental research, stimulated by the disastrous effects of liquefaction occurred
during strong earthquakes (Alaska, Chile, Niigata, etc.), pointed out the liquefaction var-
iability factor. These factors are determined both by the seismic parameters (acceleration,
main shock duration, etc.) and by the geotechnical and litho-facial parameters of the sand
deposits. Among the common criteria used to estimate the liquefaction susceptibility of
sand deposits, it has to be mentioned: grain size, density state, texture, depth of burial,
depth of unconfined water table, geologic history of the units, etc.
The sand liquefaction is related to the maximum ground acceleration in a certain area. It
is generally admitted that the lower limit of acceleration (at the base-rock level) for
liquefaction is 100 gals. The Japanese researchers consider that liquefaction can appear in
areas where the seismic intensity is at least 5 degrees on the Japanese scale to which
accelerations of 80–250 gals correspond.
Many attempts have been made in order to determine the maximum epicenter distance
to which liquefaction could be produced on the basis of the correlation between the ground
acceleration and the earthquake magnitude. In the case of Japanese earthquakes, the
maximum distance, D (km), for liquefaction, depending on the earthquake magnitude
(M) is given by: log D = 0.77 M–3.6 (for M C 6.0).
The liquefaction produced on the Romanian territory by the March 4, 1977 Vrancea
earthquake, occurred at very large epicentral distances (Ostroveni, 310 km; Sadova,
290 km; Giurgiu, 220 km). These localities are situated in the southern and southwestern
part of the country at distances that represent three times the maximum distance of
manifestation of the phenomenon, calculated by means of the established formula for
Japanese earthquakes (Mândrescu 1979).
The liquefactions are conditioned by the presence of sandy deposits which are largely
observed on the Romanian territory. These deposits occur in low plain regions and in some
depressions with alluvial flats covering a very large surface. The sands of the Romanian
Plain are located along the Danube, right of the Ialomiţa, Călmăţui and Buzău rivers and
left of the Jiu and Olt rivers. The sands of the Danube Delta are located in fluvial levees
along the main courses and in fluvio-marine levees (see Fig. 10).
According to their age, grain size distribution, thickness, compaction and depth of the
hydrostatic level, a zone with high liquefaction potential was delineated on the geohazard
map (Mândrescu 1984). This zone covers the Danube floodplain, the floodplains of its main
tributaries, the Danube Delta, the seashore and the Western Plain. The sand is generally
fine slightly non-uniform and has a reduced clay content. Deposit thickness ranges from 2
to 15 m. The hydrostatic level is generally high (0–1.5 m).
Densification occurs on the majority of friable deposits, but is characteristic for low
regions with loess and loess-like deposits. The densification depends mostly on the relative
density and also on the grains shape and size, the rolling degree, etc.
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The densification process mainly affects the loose granular deposits and particularly
loess and loess-like deposits which cover more than 40,000 km2 of the Romanian territory,
chiefly in the extra-Carpathian regions. Loess is characterized by macroporosity, columnar
structure, a high percentage in silt and a low percentage in sand and clay. Consisting of
unweathered soil particles, it has an intricate internal structure that can be modified by
water. The thickness of these deposits is 8–15 m, but it also reaches 30–40 m (the south of
the Moldavian Tableland, the Romanian Plain, etc.). The loess in the southeast of Romania
is of aeolian origin, while the other deposits are deluvio–colluvial, secondary aeolian or are
formed by in situ alterations.
Zones with a high densification potential include the southern Moldavian Tableland, the
eastern part of Romanian Plain and the central and southern parts of Dobrogea. The
thickness of these deposits usually exceeds 20 m. Due to the structure alterations suffered
by these deposits in various zones where water is present (Galaţi, Brăila, etc.), important
differentiated settlements occur even in absence of seismic vibrations.
Collapses and rockfalls are encountered particularly in the Carpathians and sub-Car-
pathians where the slopes are structural by resistant rocks but with numerous cracks and
fissures. Both collapses of individual blocks and mass falls occur on the steep slopes of
mountains devoid of vegetation. Collapses are also encountered on river banks in the hill
and on banks formed of loess or loess-like deposits from plain zones.
For analyzing the present-day geodynamical processes and integrate them in a geo-
hazard map over Romanian territory, a procedure of quantifying, weighing and aggregating
into one single map of earthquake data and regarding present-day geodynamical processes
was applied (Fig. 12a).
The necessary steps to evaluate these factors consist of (1) identifying and delineating
the territory to be studied, (2) defining the basic unit for calculating the severity of geo-
logical hazards, (3) quantifying relative weight of each factor. The weight is based on three
considerations: severity of consequences (loss of life, injuries, property damage), fre-
quency of occurrence of the event, and difficulty of prevention or mitigation of its effects.
The largest weights are assigned to earthquakes, as they have the largest damaging
potential.
The next, lower weight is taken by landslides affecting large areas of the Romanian
territory, followed by liquefactions and densifications. The procedure adopted for mapping
geohazard factors is standardized and homogenized for the whole territory considered
(Radulian et al. 2008).
5.8 Tsunamis
Among other potential geohazards not considered in the present study are tsunamis. The
danger of tsunamis in the Black Sea and Adriatic Sea areas is significantly lower than for
Pacific or Indian Oceans, since strong underwater earthquakes are rare here. However, the
seismic activity recorded during long time intervals does not allow us to exclude the
possibility of generation of strong tsunamis by underwater seaquakes or by induced
landslides.
Within the Adriatic Sea, the region most prone to generate tsunamis seems to be the
Eastern coast of the basin, where the Adriatic plate presses against the Dinarides and the
Albanides. Historically, the most prominent tsunamis here are: North Ionian Sea, 03.1270;
South Adriatic Sea, 06.04.1667; Albania, 19.01.1833; Vlora, Albania, 12.10. 1851;
Albania, 02.01.1866; Vlora, Albania, 02.03.1866; Albania, 13.03.1866; Vlora, Albania,
28.12.1869; Vlora, Albania, 14.06.1893 (Papadopoulos 2002).
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The results of some calculations suggest that a tsunami with maximum amplitude up to
a few meters can be expected, in agreement with a number of historical events reported in
the catalogs (Paulatto et al. 2007). Pasaric et al. (2011) have established that six out of the
eighteen events that were recorded on the eastern coast of Adriatic stretching from
Slovenia to Montenegro, were true tsunamis, while the others were seaquakes or the sea
effects could be attributed to meteorological forcing. The strongest one was related to the
Montenegrin earthquake on April 15 1979, when one victim was killed by the tsunami
wave; on this occasion, the tsunami waves were also recorded on the opposite, Italian coast
of Adriatic. Three rather strong tsunamis occurred in the seismically active region near
Dubrovnik: the first accompanied the devastating earthquake of April 6, 1667 that
destroyed greater part of the town, the second occurred in Boka Kotorska on 21 September
1780 and the third one again in Dubrovnik, on 16 August 1845.
As for the Black Sea tsunamis, the strongest recorded are: March 3, 1901 at Bulgarian
coast, and May 7, 2007 at Bulgarian Sea coast (Papadopoulos et al. 2011).
6 Map construction
The main purpose of a composite geohazard map is to gather together in one map the
different hazard-related information for a study area to convey a complete picture of the
natural hazards of varying magnitude, frequency, and area of effect. This is an advantage
of geographic information systems which gives the possibility to assimilate different layers
of geographic or hazard data (for example topography, seismic hazard, landslides, etc.) and
to correlate these with each other.
The benefits of such kind of multiple hazard mapping is that at the same time can be
viewed a lot of hazards and their trigger mechanism. Common reduction or mitigation
techniques can be recommended for the same portion of the study area. On the other hand,
more realistic evaluations of risks to any new development are possible.
This work is largely based on previous studies and investigations by earth scientists and
specialists of each country comprised in this territory. In this respect, the map we con-
structed should be considered as a preliminary composite geohazard map with the possi-
bility to be enriched and added with other new elements and data in the future.
6.1 Base map and techniques used
The base map used is a topographic one in a scale 1:1,000,000 produced by VGI, formerly
Yugoslavia mapping authorities (Fig. 13). The Geographic Coordinate System of the map
is UTM WGS84 Datum, Zone 34 North, Central Meridian 21d E. Transverse Mercator is
projection used. The digitalization of topographic base is made with the software Autodesk
Map 3D 2005 and geo-referenced with Autodesk Raster Design 2005. The components of
geohazards presented in the map with polylines or polygons are digitized with AutoCAD
while the geohazard components presented as symbol points are put in the map directly
through their coordinates. All the data are imported and worked on with ArcGIS 9.2 which
is also used for constructing of the composite map.
6.2 Seismic hazard layer
There are a lot of seismic assessments for different countries in the Balkans. While they
assume different techniques and methodologies used even for a sole country may have
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Nat Hazards
Fig. 13 MS - MW correlation used for the catalogue of earthquakes
individual evaluations differing in earthquake catalogs, seismic fault zones and wave
attenuation laws employed. It would be a very hard and almost impossible task to
accommodate all these seismic assessments in one map. That is why we agreed to use as a
seismic layer in our map the values of PGA obtained from Global Seismic Hazard
Assessment Program (GSHAP), which is a demonstration project of the UN/International
Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction conducted in the 1992–1998 period with the goal of
improving global standards in seismic hazard assessment. The GSHAP Global Seismic
Hazard Map has been compiled by joining the regional maps produced for different
GSHAP regions and test areas. This map depicts the global seismic hazard as PGA with a
10 % chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years
(Giardini et al. 1999). Our map of PGA values (downloaded from http://www.seismo.ethz.
ch/GSHAP/index.html) is constructed using Triangular Irregular Networks (TIN) with 3D
analyst extension.
For Albania, the lowest values of PGA are in northern part of the country (1.05 m/sec2)
going up to 3.08 m/sec2 at coast of Ionian Sea, southwest of Albania. The values of
2–3 m/sec2 are for Shkodra region, Albanian coast line from Durres to the border with
Greece and for the regions of Elbasani, Dibra, Librazhdi and Mokra. These values are not
fitting well with the values from different hazard assessment of the country.
For Bulgaria, there are two main areas where PGA values are higher: one is on the
border region with Macedonia (with PGA values up to 3.6 m/sec2) and northeast of
Plovdiv (with PGA values up to 3.3 m/sec2). Accepting the GSHAP values only as a
general seismic layer covering the entire Peninsula, the Bulgarian participants in the
project argue that these values do not properly reflect the seismic reality in their country.
They agree much more with the values obtained by the Euro-Mediterranean seismic hazard
map presented by Jimenez et al. (2001).
According to GSHAP values, the most of territory of Kosovo has PGA values from 1.0
to 1.5 m/sec2. There are only three zones with PGA values from 1.5 to 2.0 m/sec2: the zone
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north of Mitrovica up to the border with Serbia; the zone south of Prizreni up to the border
with Macedonia and Albania and the zone south of Ferizaj up to the border with Serbia and
Macedonia.
For Montenegro, the PGA values are growing from 1.5 m/sec2 at northeastern part, in
the border region with Serbia, to 3.13 m/sec2 at the Adriatic coast.
The PGA values for Macedonia are from 2.7 m/sec2 on the west border region with
Albania, going down in the central part of the country to 1.2–1.5 m/sec2 and going up
again to 3.6 m/sec2 at the east border region with Bulgaria.
The highest PGA values are found for Vrancea region in Romania (up to 4.4 m/sec2).
Almost half of the territory of this country is characterized with lower values of PGA
(1–1.5 m/sec2) going west at the border with Hungary and going north at the border with
Ukraine.
6.3 Catalogs of earthquakes
Only the epicenters of earthquakes with magnitude Mw C 6.0 are accommodated in this map.
Two catalogs were constructed: the first one that contains the crustal earthquakes (hypocentral
depth 70 km and up) and the second one that contains intermediate earthquakes (hypocentral
depth 70 km and down). As for magnitudes, for Romanian earthquakes presented in
Mw—magnitudes, we accepted the same values converted from different kinds of magnitudes
to Mw according to their developed formulas (Oncescu et al. 1999). For whole other part of
catalog whose magnitudes were given as Ms—magnitudes, a conversion formula Ms to Mw has
been developed for this purpose: Mw = 1.097 ?0.8311 Ms (R = 0.9297) (Fig. 13). For this
empiric formula, we used a data base with 53 earthquakes from the Balkan Peninsula taken from
the Harvard CMT Catalog (http://www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html). Various symbols are
used for historical earthquakes (prior to 1900) and for instrumental ones (after 1900). Both
catalogs are included in Tables 1, 2.
7 Other layers of hazards
The map shows the incidence of landslides throughout the Balkans. Different symbols
depict shallow landslides or large ones with periodic activation of separate parts. Larger
areas with potential landslides are also shown. As for liquefaction in the map are placed,
the concrete points where this phenomena has been occurred and also the areas prone to
liquefaction. The same concept has been used for evidencing other hazards as rockfalls,
erosion, land subsidence and expanding soils (see the legend of the map) (Fig. 14).
Map compilation and cartography has been carried out by Dr. Albert Avxhi from
Albanian Geological Survey, Tirana, Albania.
8 Some conclusion and recommendations
As it is well-known, the best way to mitigate risk coming from geological phenomena is to
understand the parameters of hazard and risk in a given location. Using the advantages of
GIS technique, with our map we provide a very good tool to assess potential risks, inte-
grating many different data sets and information to create a broad overview of how a
geological hazard will impact a community, an area, a country.
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Table 1 Crustal-depth earthquakes

M/D/Y H:M:S FO LO Depth (km) M Mw Q
-200 40.7 19.5 20 6.6 6.6 c

-177 41.3 19.5 20 6.6 6.6 c
-50 43.3 28.6 30 7 6.9 c
57 41.3 19.3 20 6.3 6.4 c
217 40.7 19.5 20 6.6 6.6 c
344 41.3 19 30 7.3 7.2 c
506 41.3 19.5 20 6.6 6.6 b
518 42.1 21.4 20 6.9 6.8 b
521 41.5 19.5 20 6.6 6.6 b
527 41.1 20.8 20 6.6 6.6 b
543 43.2 28.4 30 7.4 7.3 a
896 41.7 22.9 30 7.3 7.2 b
984 46 21 16 5.8 5.9 b
1153 39.8 20.1 20 6.9 6.8 b
3/1273 41.2 19.5 10 6.2 6.3 b
1380 41.1 20.1 20 6.4 6.4 b
1444 42 19.3 20 6.4 6.4 b
11/10/ 43.5 27.5 12 6.6 6.6 b
1444
11/19/ 45.7 24.2 25 6.2 6.3 b
1523
1531 45.6 25.3 20 6 6.1 b
6/13/1563 12 42.4 18.8 10 6.1 6.2 b
8/17/1579 5:30 45.8 25.7 12 5.9 6 b
8/24/1590 19 45.7 24.5 25 6.9 6.8 b
12/24/ 15:30 45.5 25.1 20 6.5 6.5 b
1605
7/3/1608 42.4 18.7 10 7.5 7.3 b
1617 41.5 19.7 20 6.2 6.3 b
11/8/1620 12:30 46.1 25 20 6.5 6.5 b
2/1632 42.5 18.7 10 7.5 7.3 b
5/1641 42.3 22.7 16 6.9 6.8 b
12/7/1746 1 46.1 24.6 14 7.5 7.3 b
10/1750 42.2 24.5 18 7.2 7.1 b
6/29/1759 42.1 24.8 20 6.4 6.4 b
9/21/1780 14 42.4 18.5 20 6.5 6.5 b
1816 41.3 19.5 20 6.3 6.4 c
7/1/1829 19:30 47.5 22.2 24 6.1 6.2 b
1/19/1833 40.4 19.3 13 6.4 6.4 b
10/15/ 6:30 47.6 22.3 32 6.5 6.5 b
1834
9/5/1843 41.2 20.1 20 6.2 6.3 b
1/20/1851 41.2 20.2 14 6 6.1 a
10/12/ 6:00 40.4 19.6 16 6.6 6.6 a
1851
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Table 1 continued
10/17/ 40.7 20 11 6.2 6.3 a

1851
10/20/ 8:30 41.1 20.1 16 6.3 6.4 a
1851
7/5/1855 42 19.7 18 6.8 6.8 a
7/7/1855 42 19.7 16 7 6.9 a
9/20/1858 40 20 8 5.9 6 a
9/30/1858 42.75 23.25 10 6.1 6.2 b
10/10/ 8:30 40.1 19.9 12 6.3 6.4 b
1858
9/12/1859 15:06 40.2 19.7 16 6 6.1 a
4/10/1860 40.3 20 11 6.4 6.4 a
1/21/1866 10 40.5 19.5 8 6.3 6.4 b
2/28/1866 40.5 19.5 11 6.3 6.4 a
3/2/1866 15:30 40.4 19.5 11 6.3 6.4 b
12/4/1866 40.3 20 13 6.7 6.7 a
12/6/1866 42 23 40 6.6 6.6 b
13/18/ 40.9 19.7 24 6 6.1 b
1869
8/14/1869 40.3 19.6 20 6.5 6.5 b
1869/9/1 41.3 19.4 20 6.2 6.3 b
2/11/1872 20:00 39.8 20 7 6 6.1 a
2/25/2875 20:00 43.3 26.9 25 6.2 6.3 b
6/4/1876 23:50 42.2 19.3 35 6.3 6.4 b
10/14/ 5:55 43.9 26.6 22 6.9 6.8 b
1892
6/14/1893 40.09 19.85 9 6.3 6.4 a
5/13/1895 22:00 39.8 20.2 17 7.3 7.2 b
2/11/1897 18:00 40.3 20.5 40 6.6 6.6 b
10/26/ 15:45 43.7 27.5 70 5.9 6 b
1900
3/31/1901 7:10:24 43.4 28.7 14 7.2 7.1 a
7/30/1901 3:30:00 43.6 28.7 15 6 6.1 a
7/5/1902 14:56:00 40.8 23 19 6.6 6.6 a
5/29/1903 9:34:54 39.8 18.7 30 6 6.1 a
4/4/1904 10:02:34 41.78 22.98 18 7.1 7 a
4/4/1904 10:25:55 41.8 23.1 24 7.8 7.6 a
6/1/1905 4:42:15 42 19.5 11 6.6 6.6 a
6/3/1905 5:10:43 42 19.5 9 6 6.1 a
10/8/1905 7:27:30 41.8 23.18 19 6.4 6.4 a
3/1/1906 17:45:00 41.1 20 15 6.5 6.5 a
9/28/1906 2:30:00 40.88 20.66 25 6 6.1 a
8/16/1907 13:00:00 41.1 20.1 13 6.2 6.3 a
2/18/1911 21:35:15 40.89 20.76 17 6.7 6.7 a
2/13/1912 8:03:54 40.9 20.6 14 6 6.1 a
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Table 1 continued
6/14/1913 9:33:13 43.1 25.7 15 7 6.9 a

8/19/1915 6:42:16 39.2 20.2 33 6 6.1 a
1/26/1916 7:37:54 45.4 24.6 21 NA 6.4 a
12/22/ 23:40:48 40.1 20.7 13 6.1 6.2 a
1919
11/26/ 8:51:00 40.35 19.96 9 6 6.1 a
1920
8/10/1921 14:10:40 42.3 21.4 20 6.1 6.2 a
12/5/1923 20:56:00 40 23.3 15 6.3 6.4 a
6/10/1926 19:16:00 39.8 20 12 6.2 6.3 a
12/17/ 11:39:55 41.3 19.5 11 6.2 6.3 a
1926
4/14/1928 9:00:01 42.2 25.3 9 6.8 6.7 a
4/18/1928 19:22:48 42.2 25.05 16 7 6.9 a
11/21/ 2:00:27 40.2 19.6 3 6.1 6.2 a
1930
3/7/1931 0:16:45 41.28 22.5 25 6 6.1 a
3/8/1931 1:50:24 41.28 22.5 10 6.7 6.7 a
9/26/1932 19:20:00 40.5 23.9 6 6.9 6.8 a
9/29/1932 3:57:00 40.9 23.3 13 6.2 6.3 a
5/11/1933 19:09:00 40.6 23.5 21 6.3 6.4 a
8/27/1942 6:14:13 41.63 20.43 13 6 6.1 a
9/1/1959 11:37:41 40.87 19.8 14 6.2 6.3 a
5/26/1960 5:10:11 40.6 20.64 9 6.2 6.3 a
3/18/1962 15:30:32 40.7 19.6 14 6 6.1 a
7/26/1963 4:17:11 42.02 21.42 11 6.2 6.3 a
11/30/ 7:23:50 41.32 20.34 10 6.6 6.6 a
1967
10/13/ 1:02:31 39.7 20.7 15 6.1 6.2 a
1969
6/20/1978 0:03:22 40.78 23.24 3 6 6.1 a
4/15/1979 6:19:41 41.961 19.015 11 7 6.9 a
4/15/1979 14:43:06 42.29 18.6 7 6 6.1 a
5/24/1979 17:23:19 42.179 18.766 4.5 6.1 6.2 a
12/7/1986 2:17:09 43.2862 25.9421 7.5 6 6.1 a
5/13/1995 12:47:13 40.14 21.69 14 6.1 6.2 a
8/14/2003 5:15:09 39.65 20.28 38 6.3 6.4 a
The catalog contents the earthquakes with magnitude Mw C 6.0 with epicenters in or nearby map area
For historical earthquakes (prior to 1900), the catalog of Shebalin et al. has been used (see references)
For instrumental earthquakes (after 1900), the catalogs supplied from project’s participants are used
For the same earthquakes which are in more than one catalog and with different data, there are considered
the data from the country where the located epicenter belongs. When the epicenter is near border lines the
catalog of Shebalin et al. has been adopted
With Q in last column is noted the quality of epicenter: a D(fo, lo) B 0.2°, D(M) B 0.2; b D(fo,lo) B 0.5°,
D(M) B 0.5; c D(fo,lo) B 1°, D(M) B 1
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Table 2 Intermediate-depth earthquakes

1091 45.7 26.6 150 6.2 6.3 c

1100 45.7 26.6 150 7.2 7.1 b
2/12/1107 3 45.7 26.6 150 7 6.9 b
10/1122 45.7 26.6 150 6.6 6.6 b
8/8/1126 45.7 26.6 150 6.2 6.3 b
2/13/1196 7 45.7 26.6 150 6.8 6.8 c
8/29/1471 8 45.7 26.6 150 7.3 7.2 b
24/11/ 45.7 26.6 150 7.2 7.1 b
1516
4/211595 10 45.7 26.6 150 6.2 6.3 b
5/3/1604 2:30 45.7 26.6 100 6.3 6.4 b
12/1620 45.7 26.6 150 7 6.9 b
4/19/1650 45.7 26.6 100 7 6.9 b
8/19/1681 0:30 45.7 26.6 100 6.2 6.3 b
6/12/1701 45.7 26.6 100 6.4 6.4 b
9/25/1728 15 45.7 26.6 100 5.9 6 b
6/11/1738 10:30 45.7 26.6 150 6.8 6.8 b
4/6/1790 19:29 45.7 26.6 150 6.8 6.8 b
12/8/1793 18:10 45.7 26.6 100 6.4 6.4 b
10/26/ 10:55 45.7 26.6 150 7.3 7.2 b
1802
2/1/1813 45.7 26.6 100 6.5 6.5 b
2/10/1821 45.7 26.6 100 6.5 6.5 b
11/17/ 13:45 45.7 26.6 150 6.4 6.4 b
1821
11/16/ 1:40 45.7 26.6 150 6.5 6.5 b
1829
1/23/1838 18:36 45.7 26.6 150 6.9 6.8 b
11/13/ 7:50 45.7 26.6 100 6.1 6.2 a
1868
11/27/ 20:35 45.7 25.6 150 5.9 6 a
1868
1/10/1869 19:30 45.7 26.6 150 6.3 6.4 b
12/25/ 14:20 45.7 26.6 150 6.3 6.4 a
1880
5/1/1893 17:10 45.7 26.6 150 6 6.1 a
8/17/1894 14:25 45.7 26.6 100 5.9 6 a
8/31/1894 12:20 45.7 26.6 150 6.2 6.3 a
3/11/1896 23:30 26.6 150 6 6.1 b
9/13/1903 8:02:00 45.7 26.6 70 NA 6.3 a
2/6/1904 2:49:00 45.7 26.6 75 NA 6.6 a
10/6/1908 21:40:00 45.5 26.5 125 NA 7.1 a
5/25/1912 18:01:54 45.7 27.2 90 NA 6.7 a
5/25/1912 20:15:00 45.7 27.2 100 NA 6.1 a
4/18/1919 6:20:05 45.7 26.8 100 NA 6.1 a
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Table 2 continued
8/9/1919 14:38:00 45.7 26.6 120 NA 6 a

12/25/ 2:37:00 45.7 26.6 130 NA 6.1 a
1925
3/30/1928 9:38:57 45.9 26.5 120 NA 6 a
5/20/1929 12:17:56 45.8 26.5 100 NA 6 a
11/1/1929 6:57:25 45.9 26.5 160 NA 6.1 a
5/27/1932 10:42:15 45.7 26.6 120 NA 6 a
2/2/1934 19:59:13 45.2 26.2 140 NA 6 a
3/29/1934 20:06:51 45.8 26.5 90 NA 6.6 a
7/13/1935 0:03:46 45.3 26.6 140 NA 6 a
9/5/1935 6:00:00 45.8 26.7 130 NA 6 a
5/17/1936 17:38:02 45.3 26.3 140 NA 6 a
7/13/1938 20:15:17 45.9 26.7 120 NA 6 a
9/5/1939 6:02:00 45.9 26.7 120 NA 6.2 a
10/22/ 6:37:00 45.8 26.4 125 NA 6.5 a
1940
11/10/ 1:39:07 45.8 26.7 150 NA 7.7 a
1940
3/12/1945 20:51:46 45.6 26.4 125 NA 6.1 a
9/7/1945 15:48:26 45.9 26.5 80 NA 6.8 a
12/9/1945 6:08:45 45.7 26.8 80 NA 6.5 a
11/3/1946 18:47:01 45.6 26.3 140 NA 6 a
5/29/1948 4:48:55 45.8 26.5 130 NA 6.3 a
8/20/1973 15:18:28 45.74 26.48 73 NA 6 a
10/1/1976 17:50:43 45.68 26.49 146 NA 6 a
3/4/1977 19:21:54 45.77 26.76 94 NA 7.4 a
8/30/1986 21:28:37 45.52 26.49 131.4 NA 7.1 a
5/30/1990 10:40:06 45.83 26.89 90.9 NA 6.9 a
5/31/1990 0:17:48 45.85 26.91 86.9 NA 6.4 a
10/27/ 20:34:36 45.78 26.73 98.6 NA 6 a
2004
Idem as in Crustal-depth Catalogue
As a first endeavor ever for building up a homogenous composite geohazard map of the
Balkans, we got many difficulties to do so. For a long time, the countries who participated
in this project have pursued different methods and techniques for collecting, depicting,
analyzing and assessing all their information on geohazards. Even inside the same country
one can get sometimes surprisingly non-unified techniques and methodologies applied to
the same geohazard phenomena. Restricted from the fund and timeframe we had little
possibility to do more and better for homogenizing the data presented in this map. For the
same reasons, not all the Balkan countries were joined to this project.
We consider successful that arranging the work through small teams from each par-
ticipating country an assessment and a composite geohazard map for these countries of the
Balkans was produced. Further on, the map can be enriched and filled up with other
123
Nat Hazards
Fig. 14 Complete geohazard map of the studied area
elements joined also by other countries from Balkan missed in this project. Only through
joint efforts of all the countries of the region could be obtained a more reliable analysis of
geohazards because the earthquakes and other geological hazards observe no geographical,
political, ethnic or religious borders.
Acknowledgments This project has been funded under the grant OPP-024 from US Civilian Research &
Development Foundation (CRDF). We are very grateful to the Board of the Foundation for making our
project the first of this kind for the Southeast Europe. As earth scientists we appreciate very much the
engagement of such powerful foundation as CRDF for supporting the science on this part of the Balkans. We
123
Nat Hazards
thank especially Dr. Marjorie Senechal from the Board of CRDF for her care and overview during all the
phases of the project. Many thanks also to Dr. Francois Roure of IFP, Paris as well as an anonymous
reviewer for helping us to improve the manuscript through their valuable comments and remarks.
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Geohazards assessment and mapping of some

Article in Natural Hazards · November 2012

Bogdan Grecu Zoran Milutinovic

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Mircea Radulian Boyko Ranguelov

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MARINEGEOHAZARD View project

Betim Muço, Georgi Alexiev, Shyqyri

Geohazards assessment and mapping of some Balkan

Betim Muço • Georgi Alexiev • Shyqyri Aliaj • Zenun Elezi •

Bogdan Grecu • Neculai Mandrescu • Zoran Milutinovic •

Received: 29 June 2011 / Accepted: 3 April 2012

B. Grecu N. Mandrescu M. Radulian

Keywords Geological hazards Seismic hazard Earthquakes Landslides

2 Seismicity, tectonics, and geodynamics

Adria-derived continental material and previously obducted ophiolites (Schmidt et al.

3 Two characteristic fault zones with SW–NE directions

One aspect of active tectonism of Balkan is characterized by a narrow zone of shortening

Fig. 6 The Vlora-Elbasani-Dibra (VED) transverse fault zone in Albania

4 Case studies on seismicity

microactivity (1.0 \ M B 3.0), by many small earthquakes (3.0 \ M B 5.0) by rare

Fig. 7 The map of epicenters of earthquakes in Bulgaria

5.3 Land subsidence

5.5 Soil erosion

5.6 Expansive soils

5.7 Case studies

hazard classes comprise around 10 % of territory (mostly in the Subcarpathian region)

6.1 Base map and techniques used

6.2 Seismic hazard layer

Fig. 13 MS - MW correlation used for the catalogue of earthquakes

6.3 Catalogs of earthquakes

7 Other layers of hazards

8 Some conclusion and recommendations

Table 1 Crustal-depth earthquakes

-200 40.7 19.5 20 6.6 6.6 c

M/D/Y H:M:S FO LO Depth (km) M Mw Q

10/17/ 40.7 20 11 6.2 6.3 a

M/D/Y H:M:S FO LO Depth (km) M Mw Q

6/14/1913 9:33:13 43.1 25.7 15 7 6.9 a

Table 2 Intermediate-depth earthquakes

1091 45.7 26.6 150 6.2 6.3 c

M/D/Y H:M:S FO LO Depth (km) M Mw Q

8/9/1919 14:38:00 45.7 26.6 120 NA 6 a

Idem as in Crustal-depth Catalogue

Fig. 14 Complete geohazard map of the studied area

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